Bulkowski’s Partial Rises

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Partial rises are looping chart patterns that appear at the end of broadening patterns and rectangles. They predict an immediate downward breakout.



Identification Guidelines Trading Tips Patterns Example

Partial rise chart pattern example

Identification Guidelines

Characteristic	Discussion
Established	The rectangle or broadening chart pattern should be an established one, meaning that it should obey all of the identification guidelines for that pattern. Don’t look for a partial rise until you have a completed rectangle or broadening chart pattern.
Bottom trendline	Price should touch the bottom trendline and move up but not touch or come that close to the top trendline before heading back down. When price touches the lower trendline, it usually stages an immediate downward breakout. Sometimes, it may linger at the lower trendline before plunging through. If price rebounds, close out your position.
Breakout	Downward. This usually occurs immediately after the partial rise touches the lower trendline.
Pause	Price often pauses partway across a chart pattern so it may look like a partial rise is forming. Wait for price to head back down before shorting the stock.

Trading Tips

Trading Tactic	Explanation
Price loop	If price bounces off the lower trendline and heads back up, then rounds over before coming close to the top trendline, then it may be a partial rise. Short once it’s clear that price is heading back toward the lower trendline.
Fibonacci	A trend reversal at the 50% or 62% Fibonacci retrace of the prior down move may signal a partial rise.
Pause	Price may pause at the lower trendline, perhaps slide along it before breaking out downward.
Cover	Cover your short if price bounces off the lower trendline and heads back up.
Breakout	Expect a downward breakout after a partial rise.

Patterns

The following table shows how often a partial rise correctly predicts a downward breakout in bull markets.

Chart Patterns	Partial Rise Success Rate in Bull Markets
Broadening bottoms	67%
Broadening formations, right-angled and ascending	74%
Broadening formations, right-angled and descending	54%
Broadening tops	61%
Broadening wedges, ascending	74%
Broadening wedges, descending	14%
Rectangle bottoms	74%
Rectangle tops	57%

Example

Partial rise in a broadening bottom chart pattern

The above figure shows an example of a broadening bottom chart pattern. This broadening bottom is not my favorite example because price does not cross the pattern often enough. In other words, there is too much white space in the middle to end of the pattern. Nevertheless, price touches each trendline boundary often enough so the broadening pattern is established. Price in the partial rise attempts to reach the top trendline but fails. This partial rise is a gentle turn that leads to an immediate downward breakout.