Bulkowski’s Pennants

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Pennants are the workhorses of the day trader. They perform an invaluable service by marking the midway point in a move. However, if a pennant is not accompanied by a flagpole, then it's not a pennant. Also, performance depends on a strong price trend leading to the pennant. For more information see pages 522 to 535 of the book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition and the following...
Pennant chart pattern
Pennant chart pattern

Important Bull Market Results*

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): Not applicable
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 2%; 4%
Average rise/decline: 25%; 19%
Throwback/pullback rate: 47%; 31%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 60%; 51%

* The performance results for pennants are based on the short-term price swing, not the change from the breakout to the ultimate high or low as in most other chart patterns.

Identification Guidelines

Characteristic Discussion
Price trend Can be any direction leading to the chart pattern.
Shape Looks like a short symmetrical triangle.
Trendlines Prices move between two converging trendlines.
3 weeks Pennants are short, less than 3 weeks long. Patterns longer than that are symmetrical triangles, rising or falling wedges.
Flagpole The flagpole which leads to the pennant should be unusually steep and last several days.

Volume trend

Downward trend 88% of the time.
Breakout Upward 61% of the time.

Trading Tips

Trading Tactic Explanation

Measure rule

Compute the height from the start of the price swing (point A in the measure rule figure to the right) to the end of the price swing (B) and then multiply it by the above “percentage meeting price target.” Add it (upward breakouts) to the bottom of the pennant (C) or subtract it (downward breakouts) from the top of the pennant (C) to get the target (D).
Half staff The average move from the trend start to the top of the pennant is 27% in 14 days. The move from the pennant low to the trend end is 25% and takes 23 days. Thus, the pennant appears nearly midway in a price move. The half staff figure to the right shows an example.
Pennant tilt Performance suffers when the pennant slopes in the direction of the prevailing price trend. The Pennant Tilt figure to the right shows an example of price tilting upward in a rising price trend.
Flat base If the pennant appears above (upward breakouts) or below (downward breakouts) a flat base then expect the move to be a large one.
Tight pennants A tight pennant performs better than a loose one. A loose pennant is one in which price meanders, pokes outside the trendline boundary, contains white space, or looks jagged. The Tight v. Loose figure to the right shows an example.

Yearly low

Pennants perform best within a third of the yearly low regardless of the breakout direction.
Throwbacks and pullbacks Throwbacks and pullbacks hurt postbreakout performance.
Pennant chart pattern measure rule
The Measure Rule
Pennant half staff move
Half Staff
Pennant tilt
Pennant Tilt
Tight versus loose pennant
Tight v. Loose

Example

Pennant chart pattern example

The above figure shows an example of a pennant chart pattern. The flagpole begins at point A and completes at B. Following that, the pennant appears from B to C, bounded by two converging trendlines then the decline resumes and bottoms at D.

Copyright © 2005-2007 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Hit any user to continue.