Bulkowski’s Ascending Broadening Wedge

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The ascending broadening wedge is a chart pattern that tends to disappear in a bear market. Most often, you'll find them in a bull market with a downward breakout. For more information see pages 81 to 97 of the book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition and read the following...

Pictured is an ascending broadening wedge

Important Bull Market Results

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 6 out of 23; 14 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 2%; 11%
Average rise/decline: 38%; 17%
Throwback/pullback rate: 50%; 57%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 69%; 58%

Identification Guidelines

Characteristic Discussion
Price trend Can be up or down leading to the pattern
Shape A megaphone tilted up. Refer to the above figure.
Trendlines Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one.
Touches At least three peaks and three valleys should touch their respective trendline.
Volume Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time.
Breakout Downward 73% of the time.

Trading Tips

Trading Tactic Explanation
Measure rule Refer to the two figures on the right. For downward breakouts, use the lowest valley in the pattern as the target. For upward breakouts, compute the difference between the highest peak (point A) and lowest valley (B) in the pattern to get the height. Multiply the height by the above “percentage meeting price target” and add it to the breakout price ( A) to get the price target (C).
Intraformation trade Since the bottom trendline slopes upward, do not short this pattern at the top trendline. Go long at the bottom when price bounces off the bottom trendline, heading up.
Buy at 3rd touch When price touches the bottom trendline for the third time and begins rising, buy. This is for aggressive traders.
Partial rise A partial rise works 74% of the time. See the link on the left for more information.
Partial decline A partial decline works 35% of the time. See the link on the left for more information.
Price trend For upward breakouts, the best performing patterns are those with a short-term (less than three months) move leading to the pattern. Downward breakouts do better with a long-term move (over six months) leading to the pattern.
Yearly low Downward breakouts perform best when the breakout is within a third of the yearly low. For upward breakouts, performance is constant. The link on the left provides statistics and this link gives additional information.

Throwbacks and pullbacks

Throwback and pullbacks hurt postbreakout performance. The links on the left define throwbacks and pullbacks. These links for throwbacks and pullbacks discuss performance.
Continuations 76% break out in the same direction as that leading to the pattern.

Pictured is the measure rule for an ascending broadening wedge

Measure rule for downward breakouts

Pictured is the measure rule for an ascending broadening wedge

Measure rule for upward breakouts

Example

An ascending broadening wedge chart pattern example

The above figure shows an example of the ascending broadening wedge chart pattern. The only thing remarkable about this wedge is that a partial decline occurs after the breakout. Technically, that means a partial decline did not occur (because it is after the breakout), but it sure looks pretty on the chart.

Copyright © 2005-2007 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. My kids rob me blind and then make me the getaway driver.