Triple Screen
Trading System – Part Eight
At long last, we have reached the end of this series describing all facets of
the triple screen trading system. (To access the whole series see our archive of
trading articles.) You will recall that the third screen in the system, the
trailing buy or sell stop system, allows for the ultimate level of precision in
your buy orders (or sell orders if you are selling short). By identifying the
ripples moving in the direction of the market tide, you will best be able to
capitalize on the short-term (usually intraday) price movements that pinpoint
the exact points at which you should enter your position.
Stop-Loss Technique
But we have yet to discuss how the triple screen trading system assists
a trader, once in a position, to secure a profit and avoid significant losses.
As is the case in all levels of trading, and indeed investing at large, the
decision to exit your position, whether long or short, is just as important as,
if not more important than your decision to enter a position. The triple screen
trading system ensures that you make use of the tightest stops, both in entering
and in exiting your position.
Immediately after executing your purchase order for a long position, you place a stop-loss order one tick below the low of the trade day or the previous day, whichever is lower. The same principle applies to a short sale. As soon as you have sold short, place a protective stop-loss one tick above the high of the trade day or the previous day, whichever is higher.
In order to protect against the potential for losses, move your stop to a break-even level as soon as the market moves in your favor. Assuming that the market continues to move you into a position of profits, you must then place another protective stop at your desired level of profits. Under this system, a 50-percent profit level is a valid rule of thumb for your targeted profitability.
The
Importance of Stop-Loss
The stop-loss orders used in exiting a position are very tight under
this system because of the fundamental tide of the market. If you enter into a
position using the analysis tools contained in the triple screen trading system
only to see the market immediately move against you, the market has likely
undergone a fundamental shift in tide. Even when identifying the market's
probable long-term trend in the first screen, you can still be unlucky enough to
enter your trade, for which you use the third screen, at the very moment at
which the long-term trend is changing. Although the triple screen system can
never identify this condition organically, the trader can easily prevent against
any probable resultant losses by keeping his stop-loss extremely tight.
Even if your position enters into the red, it is always better to exit early and take your loss sooner rather than later. Realize your small loss, then sit back, and observe what is happening in the market. You will likely be able to learn something from the experience: if the market truly has shifted its long-term direction, you might better be able to identify the situation should it happen again in the future.
Conservative and Aggressive Exit Strategies
The above discussion has outlined a relatively conservative strategy
for risk-averse traders. By maintaining the tightest stop-loss orders possible,
conservative traders can easily go long or short on the first strong signal from
the triple screen trading system and stay with that position for as long as the
major trend lasts. Once the trend reverses, the profits will already be locked
in. If the market reverses prematurely, the trader will be stopped out of major
losses.
A possibility for more aggressive, active traders is to continue watching the market after entering into a long or short position. While the longest-term trend is still valid, active traders can use each new signal from the second screen (the daily oscillator) to supplement the original position. This approach allows for a greater level of gross profit while still allowing the stop-loss approach to protect the entire position. Adding to the original position while the trend continues is often referred to as "pyramiding the original position."
Another type of trading is practiced by the position trader, who should try to go long or short on the very first signal issued by the triple screen system. Then he or she should stay with that position until the trend reverses.
Finally, a short-term trader may take profits using signals from the second screen. You may recall that the second screen identifies the medium-term wave that goes against the larger tide. Using the very same second screen indicator that is used prior to entering the trade, the short-term trader can use intraday occurrences of market reversals to exit the trade. If, for example, the short-term trader uses Stochastic as his or her second screen oscillator, he or she may sell the entire position and take the profits when Stochastic rises to 70 percent. The trader can then revisit the first screen of the system, reconfirm the market tide, and continue to drill down to the second and third screens in order to identify another buying (or selling) opportunity.
Conclusion
The length of this eight-part series on the triple screen trading system
demonstrates that Dr. Alexander Elder's creation is not the simplest means of
identifying buying and selling opportunities on the markets. The system is,
however, one of the most powerful means of combining a series of useful
individual indicators into one comprehensive whole. The time that you spend
reading these articles and familiarizing yourself with the individual components
of the system will undoubtedly pay dividends to your trading success.