Gaps are a category all unto themselves. Lets discuss
gaps in two parts. First we will look at
what they are, why they happen and what
the concepts are. Next we will look at
some chart examples.
A "gap" is a term used to describe the
circumstance of when a stock opens at a
higher price than it closed the prior
day. The word "gap" refers to the gap
that is left in the daily chart; the
empty space from yesterday's close to
today's open. Gaps can be either up or
down. They can happen to all stocks,
listed or Nasdaq.
The gap is measured from the prior day's
4 p.m. closing price to the current
day's 9:30 a.m. opening price, all in
Eastern Standard Time. The post market
activity and pre market activity do not
affect the "gap" for our purposes.
Stocks can trade after market hours
through ECNs (Electronic Communication
Networks), until 8 p.m. and pre market
starting at 8 a.m., but this is
currently not considered to be "normal"
market hours.
For example, stock XYZ closes at 4 p.m.
EDT at 37. It trades in after market
hours up to 38. The next day at 8 a.m.
EDT it starts trading at 38.5 and trades
up to 39.5. By 9:30 the stock is all the
way back down to 37.10. The "gap" as we
measure it is only 10 cents. All those
post and pre market trades do not
matter. The stock traded, and people
made and lost money, but the gap is not
affected.
What causes gaps? Usually it is news
driven. Individual stocks can gap up or
down due to news such as earnings
reports, earnings pre-announcements,
analysts' upgrades and downgrades,
rumors, message board posts, CNBC, or
key people in the company commenting or
buying/selling the company stock.
Groups of stocks or the whole market may
gap up or down due to various economic
reports, news on the economy, political
news, or major world events (most
recently is the large gap down from the
Sept. 11 incident). This news can cause
many individual issues to gap with the
market. Many big name stocks move very
closely with the market. Some may be in
the sectors that are most affected by
the news.
Whatever the exact reason, gaps are the
result of some kind of event happening
while the market is closed. The result
is the buying or selling pressure at the
open of the next day, which will make
the stock open at a different price than
where it closed. Why are they important?
This sudden move by a stock, the sudden
change in demand, is often the beginning
of a major move. They are swing trading
strategies that capitalize on entering
after a gap, and guerrilla tactics that
capitalize on one or two day moves after
a gap.
Here are some concepts and general rules
about gaps. First, we generally never
buy a large gap up at the open or sell
short a large gap down at the open. When
market makers have the chance, they will
often exaggerate the gap. Also, large
gaps are already extended, making the
play risky. We tend to "fade" the gap
initially, if played at all. Fading
means to play the stock to come back in
to where it was. Fading a large gap up
would be to go short the stock as it
trades down after a large gap up.
After the initial move, the charts must
be looked at along with the amount of
the gap, and the share price of the
stock. Small gap ups that gap over
resistance can be watched for long
entries. Large gap ups that gap into
resistance can be watched for short
entries. What is "large" or "small" and
what is resistance is all a matter of
chart reading and interpretation, but
there are some rules we will be looking
at.
Small gap downs that gap under support
can be watched for short entries. Large
gap downs that gap above support can be
watched for long entries. What is
"large" or "small" and what is
resistance is all a matter of chart
reading and interpretation, and again,
there are some rules we will be looking
at.
The concept of gaps is a very difficult
one for most traders, even those with
considerable experience. They are a
strategy all by themselves, and are part
of many other strategies. We will next
look at a few examples. While this
cannot serve to fully educate you on the
topic, it can get you started thinking
correctly about a big part of the
trading day: the opening. |