Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
Although The time has come to close the second chapter of our
Journal, I have decided split off the
Futures Discussion from The Equities Discussion in an effort to avoid any
additional confusion.. In the spirit of “iterative refinement,” I welcome all
participants – especially commentary that helps to improve upon our results.
Feel free to use this Journal to post your own trades, to submit ideas, to
contribute helpful techniques or to learn more about The Jack Hershey Equities
Method in general.
In this installment, I plan to focus more on Jack’s Advanced Methodology for
trading equities, and to include, shorting, FTT set ups, Gaussians and ‘Outside
The Box’ trades.
In an effort to bring everyone up to speed, I recommend a review of the
Tomorrow’s Newspaper, Today document, the Jokari Window and The Big Post
I – X attached in the Previous Journals.
I also recommend reading through the previous Journals -
Journal I and
Journal II, (at least once) in an effort to develop a superior understanding
of the nuances involved with trading these methods.
Welcome to the Final Chapter of our Trilogy, and Good Trading to you all!
- Spydertrader
__________________
Wealth-Lab Upgrade
Chartscript Upgrade
Hershey Equities Chartscript Version 4.2
- Spydertrader
__________________
Current Final Universe
Current Final Universe
ALY BITS COGO CTRN DTLK DXPE ESCL FTEK GIGM GMXR GROW GRRF IAAC ININ LQDT MIKR
NVEC OMNI OMRI PCCC RATE RBAK REDF SIM SIRF STEC SYX XING
- Spydertrader
__________________
Your new Chartscript is excellent!
Tjhanks again for all yopur work and patience.
Don
The C+ Code
Back in the mid-1990's, one of Jack's students coded an automated Equities
Trading program. The student gave a copy of the program to Jack, but Jack never
used the program. For those of you who have read the USENET and MSN posts, Jack
referred to this program as 'The Floppies.' By clicking the link below, you can
download a .zip file containing a copy of this code (in the Floppies Folder). I
have yet to experience any success getting the program to work - meaning I
cannot turn the thing 'on.' 
Perhaps, some of the more experienced programmers who follow these discussions
will have more success than I. Should anyone have success translating the code
(and / or getting it to work), please let me know.
Merry Christmas!
- Spydertrader
For 'Floppies' Click HERE.
__________________
Thanks. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!
Spyder,
Once again i wish to express my gratitude for all the work you do to assist
people in learning the Hershey Equities Trading method. Your tireless efforts
are nothing short of miraculous and, as evidenced by the number of hits these
threads get, greatly appreciated by many.
I particularly want to thank you for maintaining the Equities thread for yet
another year!! I'll do my best to kick in and participate in the discussion.
I look forward to the new year and all it promises!!
Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year To all!!
Rick
Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
Quote from Spydertrader:
Although The time has come to close the second chapter of our Journal, I have decided split off the Futures Discussion from The Equities Discussion in an effort to avoid any additional confusion.. In the spirit of “iterative refinement,” I welcome all participants – especially commentary that helps to improve upon our results. Feel free to use this Journal to post your own trades, to submit ideas, to contribute helpful techniques or to learn more about The Jack Hershey Equities Method in general.
In this installment, I plan to focus more on Jack’s Advanced Methodology for trading equities, and to include, shorting, FTT set ups, Gaussians and ‘Outside The Box’ trades.
In an effort to bring everyone up to speed, I recommend a review of the Tomorrow’s Newspaper, Today document, the Jokari Window and The Big Post I – X attached in the Previous Journals.
I also recommend reading through the previous Journals - Journal I and Journal II, (at least once) in an effort to develop a superior understanding of the nuances involved with trading these methods.
Welcome to the Final Chapter of our Trilogy, and Good Trading to you all!
- Spydertrader
I have updated my earnings.xls spreadsheet to parse for an earnings date from
Zacks.com, (in addition to clearstation and yahoo).
The dates are automatically (but slowly) filled in and placed side by side so
that you can compare the earnings dates given by the different sources. The
point being, that there are often discrepancies to investigate before trading
the stock.
Since Spydertrader often posts a yahoo news link for the days symbols, I have
also included an automatically updating link in cell H1. (When you run the
earnings macro, the URL will update to include up to 20 symbols from column A. )
The directions are still the same.
(you only have to do steps 1,2 & 3 once.)
1. FIRST, open Excel (before you even download the file. )
2. Press alt + F11
3. From the Microsoft Visual Basic Menu, Select TOOLS, select REFERENCES, then
find "Microsoft Internet Controls" and place a checkmark next to it. Click OK
and Exit everything.
4. Import, paste or type symbols into column A
5. Press the "Get Earnings" button.
Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
Quote from gerry875:
do you know how this concept performed during the bear market 00-03?
__________________
Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
Quote from gerry875:
do you know how this concept performed during the bear market 00-03?
Earnings.xls
Quote from Clym:
I have updated my earnings.xls spreadsheet to parse for an earnings date from Zacks.com
__________________
Thanks for the earnings program Clym.
A note to others, the file will have an execution error if you rename it. It
appears to need to be named earnings.xls to work correctly.
My first month I made 5% with lots of mistakes being made. but I learned from
each one of them. I can not thank Spydertrader and excv8tor enough
Quote from bigmoose:
Thanks for the earnings program Clym.
A note to others, the file will have an execution error if you rename it. It appears to need to be named earnings.xls to work correctly.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Thank-you for sharing your efforts. I frequently use this spreadsheet to update my charts with the individual Earnings Dates.
- Spydertrader
This is a great Forum, thank you all for participating. I have been reading
the prior posts, finished the 1st journal, up to page 630 of the second, and
plan to paper trade starting next week. I noticed that QX04790 posted a program
to populate fields in a spread sheet, but the link no longer works. Does anyone
have a copy to share?
thanks,
Hi Elvis,
Is this what you are after?
Quote from Clym:
I have updated my earnings.xls spreadsheet to parse for an earnings date from Zacks.com, (in addition to clearstation and yahoo).
The dates are automatically (but slowly) filled in and placed side by side so that you can compare the earnings dates given by the different sources. The point being, that there are often discrepancies to investigate before trading the stock.
Since Spydertrader often posts a yahoo news link for the days symbols, I have also included an automatically updating link in cell H1. (When you run the earnings macro, the URL will update to include up to 20 symbols from column A. )
The directions are still the same.
(you only have to do steps 1,2 & 3 once.)
1. FIRST, open Excel (before you even download the file. )
2. Press alt + F11
3. From the Microsoft Visual Basic Menu, Select TOOLS, select REFERENCES, then find "Microsoft Internet Controls" and place a checkmark next to it. Click OK and Exit everything.
4. Import, paste or type symbols into column A
5. Press the "Get Earnings" button.
2007 Tool revamp
Clym thanks for sharing your earnings program -- very helpful.
It appears that the StockTables subscription cost is increasing on Jan 1 and
there is still time today to get a discounted rate. Could the users on the board
please comment on the advantages of StockTables. I am a long time Telechart
user. My objective is to consolidate tools in 2007. It's charting function has
been replaced by QCharts. Thanks in advance for your opinions.
Cipher,
It might be, thanks. I unzipped and saved it, but how do I get it into my excel
sheet?
thanks
it
Quote from cipherscribe:
Hi Elvis,
Is this what you are after?
Re: 2007 Tool revamp
I subscribe to the IBD screen service, Does anyone think StocktTables is
better? I'm happy to contribute the IBD info if anyone thinks it is of value
(probably mostly the same names anyway).
Quote from wherchat:
Clym thanks for sharing your earnings program -- very helpful.
It appears that the StockTables subscription cost is increasing on Jan 1 and there is still time today to get a discounted rate. Could the users on the board please comment on the advantages of StockTables. I am a long time Telechart user. My objective is to consolidate tools in 2007. It's charting function has been replaced by QCharts. Thanks in advance for your opinions.
Re: 2007 Tool revamp
Quote from wherchat:
Could the users on the board please comment on the advantages of StockTables.
__________________
New Years' Resolution LOL
My resolution:
- Re-read J1 and J2 again!
- Throw everything out and work on Hershey alone!
What i learnt in 2006:
- the power of compounding
- basic scripting in WL
- there IS a consistent approach to making it
What I still need to be able to do:
- finding that "aha" moment...
Currently sitting on an SIRF short. Did not FRV EOD when I went long; looks like
an FTT
For those of you interested in showing the DU, FRV etc on Wealth-lab, here is
the code for it (exactly the same as the recent Spydie script)...
for Bar := 0 to BarCount - 1 do
begin
if PriceClose(Bar) > PriceOpen(Bar) then
SetSeriesBarColor(Bar, #volume, #blue)
else if PriceClose(Bar) < PriceOpen(Bar) then
SetSeriesBarColor(Bar, #volume, #Red)
else
SetSeriesBarColor(Bar, #volume, #black);
end;
for Bar := 0 to BarCount - 1 do
begin
if (@#volume[Bar] < DUHigh) then
//SetSeriesBarColor(Bar, #volume, #purple);
DrawImage( 'DownArrowMagenta', volpane, Bar, curvol * 1.75, false )
end;
{Average Volume and 20 SMA}
//PlotSeries( SMASeries( #VOLUME, 65) , volpane, #green, #Thin );
PlotSeries( SMASeries( #Close, 20 ), 0, 009, #Thick );
{Setting Price Bar Colors}
SetBarColors( #Green, #Red );
{Expanded Volume Pane}
hidevolume;
Plotseries(#volume, volpane, #blue, #thickhist);
DrawHorzLine ((SMA(mo1, #VOLUME, 65)*0.30), volpane, #black, #Thin);
DrawHorzLine ((SMA(mo1, #VOLUME, 65)*0.90), volpane, #blue, #Thin);
DrawHorzLine ((SMA(mo1, #VOLUME, 65)*1.8), volpane, #green, #Thin);
Drawtext('Volume', volpane, 4, 4, #blue, 009 );
Drawtext('Ave Dry Up = '+FormatFloat('0,0' , AVERAGEDU ) + ' Lower Band =
'+FormatFloat('0,0' , DULow ) + ' FRV = '+FormatFloat('0,0' , 3*AVERAGEDU ) + '
Peak = '+FormatFloat('0,0' , 2*(3*AVERAGEDU)), 2, 5, 28, #Blue, 9);
Spydertrader
Re: biglist.zip
I am unable to open HersheyQuote.qsw.
I wouls love to use a better workspace.
Any suggestios?
Thanks
Don
Quote from Gandolph:
I am unable to open HersheyQuote.qsw.
I wouls love to use a better workspace.
Any suggestios?
__________________
AAh - That's the problem. At the moment I am using Wealth Lab Pro only.
Thanks for the response. It alleviates the fustration.
Don
Reminder
FYI ...
Tuesday January 2, 2007 has been designated as a National Day of Mourning for
former President Gerald Ford. As a result, U.S. stock markets will be closed.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Jack's FTT Post
An Old Post from Jack which may help some to 'see' the FTT quicker. Note
Jack's description of Volume in the post. Note also how Jack describes "Trading
Between the FTT's" with equities near the end of the post.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Outside The Box
Another Thread where cnms2 uses Jack's Methods "outside the box."
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Outside The Box
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Thread where cnms2 uses Jack's Methods "outside the box."
- Spydertrader
Quote from Elvis:
Cipher,
It might be, thanks. I unzipped and saved it, but how do I get it into my excel sheet?
thanks
it
Quote from cipherscribe:
Please find a version that works with Excel 97-2003
__________________
Hey Spyder,
As I was going thru my equities routine tonight, I noticed that you have ALY and
SIM in your FU. Have you changed your stance on AMEX stocks?
thx,
spooz
Quote from spooz_trader1:
As I was going thru my equities routine tonight, I noticed that you have ALY and SIM in your FU. Have you changed your stance on AMEX stocks?
__________________
Hi Cipher,
You are 4 years ahead of me. I use Excel 2003 and can't open this file. The MS
utility says that it needs to be saved in Excel Beta 2, then I can convert it to
excel 2003, or maybe you cna save it to an earlier version of Excel.
Thanks,
Quote from cipherscribe:
Hi Elvis,
Is this what you are after?
Cipher,
Got it. Thanks. It's a great macro, but I am looking for something that will
dorp score, rank, DU, etc. into a spreadsheet for me.
Thanks,
Quote from cipherscribe:
Hi Elvis,
It was in a format recognised only by the recent beta release of Excel. Stupid me!
Please find a version that works with Excel 97-2003
Cheers,
It appears to use a ticker list that you input and return lists of
information (from Yahoo) that you specify. For example, earnings, 50 day moving
average, days range, EBITDA,....
The utility that I am looking for was written by QX04790 and named Hershey
Trader v 1.0.0. It seems to populate the fields we need for trading (for example
DU, FRV, Peak,...)
Anyone know where I can find it, I've already sent a PM to QX?
Quote from Spydertrader:
What does this thing do?
- Spydertrader
Attached is a screen shot published by QX04790 of the utility that I am
looking for
Quote from Spydertrader:
What does this thing do?
- Spydertrader
Just an idea
Quote from Elvis:
Attached is a screen shot published by QX04790 of the utility that I am looking for
__________________
Hi Elvis,
Quote from Elvis:
Attached is a screen shot published by QX04790 of the utility that I am looking for
Try this service for sharing large files.
Quote from Aurum:
Try this service for sharing large files.
Happy New Year all!
Thank you, Spyder, for continuing with your Jack Hershey Equities III Journal in
2007.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year (belated)!
I don't see any postings of watch lists for the day, so I'll post mine for
Wednesday 03 January 2007.
BITS FTEK GIGM GMXR NVEC OMNI SIM SIRF
Does this match anyone else's watch list for the day?
John
I have those plus CAL
b
Got it. Thank you both. I'll keep you posted re: results.
Quote from cipherscribe:
Cool!
Here it is then... http://www.sendspace.com/file/u8zb8k
Cheers,
Quote from rbaker:
John
I have those plus CAL
b
Away All Day
I apologize for my absence today. An early morning phone call alerted me to
an unforeseen change in schedule. Rather than monitor the YM and ES, I spent the
day watching Barney and Tele-Tubbies. The reason for the change? A new member of
the family arrived early this morning (2 days early), and sis needed a sitter
(Uncle Spydertrader) for her other kids. The birth went well, and Catherine Rose
arrived with ten fingers, ten toes and one loud voice.
I'll play catch up and provide some commentary later this evening.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Away All Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
I apologize for my absence today. An early morning phone call alerted me to an unforeseen change in schedule. Rather than monitor the YM and ES, I spent the day watching Barney and Tele-Tubbies. The reason for the change? A new member of the family arrived early this morning (2 days early), and sis needed a sitter (Uncle Spydertrader) for her other kids. The birth went well, and Catherine Rose arrived with ten fingers, ten toes and one loud voice.
I'll play catch up and provide some commentary later this evening.
- Spydertrader
FTEK
Jack,
I entered a trade on FTEK today according to my understanding of the rules.
However my question is for handling the trade tomorrow. FTEK hit FRV today so I
held it. When I look at the Unusual Volume Correlation Table it mentions that
the stock must meet certain %of the 65 day avg volume (particularly those
numbers in the peak column which are colored blue. The chart says, "Continue to
hold if maintained (sell owned positions when lagging below this level within
one day)."" I know that seems straight forward but I would appreciate some
commentary on how to use this table to manage an open trade.
Thanks
b
Re: FTEK
Quote from rbaker:
Jack,
I entered a trade on FTEK today according to my understanding of the rules. However my question is for handling the trade tomorrow. FTEK hit FRV today so I held it. When I look at the Unusual Volume Correlation Table it mentions that the stock must meet certain %of the 65 day avg volume (particularly those numbers in the peak column which are colored blue. The chart says, "Continue to hold if maintained (sell owned positions when lagging below this level within one day)."" I know that seems straight forward but I would appreciate some commentary on how to use this table to manage an open trade.
Thanks
b
I think you
want to see increasing volume tomorrow and indications that it will get to the
LTL (my long channels start in July/August), or you exit for small profit /
wash.
My entry was at 938 EST when the pro rata low band volume was passed. I use Spyder's standard indicators of positive price, slow Stochastic above 80 on 30 minute chart, and MACD positive on 30 minute chart. My fill price was 25.86. You are right that volume stalled after about 10-1030 and just had spurts after that. I was somewhat surprised that it hit FRV but since it did I am long my position. On my chart the price broke out of a daily downtrend channel with the morning volume surge and has the upper boundary of the intermediate (weekly) trendline at about 28 for tomorrow.
Hello,
More of a lurker here than a poster. I have a question, anyone else come up with
HWCC as a hotlist stock today?
My initial stocktables.com scan was 80/80, culled via "cull stocktables"
spreadsheet, and ran against Hershey Rank Scan V1.0
Thanks,
TG
HWCC
Quote from TradingGuy:
I have a question, anyone else come up with HWCC as a hotlist stock today?
__________________
Re: Re: FTEK
[QUOTE]Quote from PointOne:
[ FRV is calculated as a certain % of 65D volume and is a guideline.
Most of you probably know this but for those that don't:
3 x DU= FRV
2 x FRV= Peak
Re: HWCC
Quote from Spydertrader:
According to the chart, HWCC appears to be a Dry Up Stock for Tuesday Evening (based on Volume).
__________________
Keep an Eye
Some fish ....
CTRN & SWFT
See what you think.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I require a minimum of 127 trading days of data before I permit an equity into the Final Universe. Jack requires 2 years of data (or used to).
Quote from johnpinochet:
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year (belated)!
I don't see any postings of watch lists for the day, so I'll post mine for Wednesday 03 January 2007.
BITS FTEK GIGM GMXR NVEC OMNI SIM SIRF
Does this match anyone else's watch list for the day?
Comments
Quote from johnpinochet:
Comments on if this sort of subjective evaluation would be a bad?
__________________
Re: Keep an Eye
Quote from Spydertrader:
Some fish ....
CTRN & SWFT
See what you think.
- Spydertrader
My WatchList 04 Jan 2007
BITS NVEC
I would only look at BITS based on my earlier post.
I would also add SWFT, but that is based on spydertrader's post above and not on
my strict following of the posted rules.
John,
My list was the same. They were both no go today due to lack of volume on BITS;
NVEC hit DU between 10-1030 EST but price, MACD, and STOC were all negatives on
the 30 min chart
b
Re: Re: Keep an Eye
Quote from johnpinochet:
How did you get SWFT?
__________________
John, Rbaker,
I had the same Dry Up list and passed on both this morning for the same reasons.
Re: HWCC
Quote from Spydertrader:
According to the chart, HWCC appears to be a Dry Up Stock for Thursday Evening (based on Volume). I did not have HWCC in my Watchlist as it has yet to make my Final Universe. According to Qcharts, HWCC currently sits a few weeks shy of six months worth of data. I require a minimum of 127 trading days of data before I permit an equity into the Final Universe. Jack requires 2 years of data (or used to).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: HWCC
Quote from TimDog:
I currently dont use Qcharts, so does anyone know where you can find how many days of data a stock has. I skimmed through Quote.com and didnt see it (could have missed it), but is there any other places people are using to check for this?
Re: Re: HWCC
Quote from TimDog:
I skimmed through Quote.com and didnt see it (could have missed it), but is there any other places people are using to check for this?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: HWCC
Quote from Spydertrader:
Open a Weekly Chart for the symbol in question. Count the days from first data reported to present day. With HWCC, it is just shy of six months of data.
- Spydertrader
Quote from rbaker:
I don't know for sure but if you can pull up a chart of the stock you are interested in and set the interval to monthly you should get a good idea if there is sufficient data to include in your universe.
SWFT
Enter on the FTT, Exit on the FBO. Just like we talk about in Futures.
- Spydertrader
__________________
TC2000
Jack seems to have had extensive experience withTelechart. i have used it for
years, but i think it is lacking in the necessities for Hershey trading. i want
to have the mosy versatile tool availble, since they are all comparably priced
and i wondered if Jack has used this platform recently and is familiar with the
new Snap Sheets. if so, i would appreciate his comments on this service. restan.
...............
Re: TC2000
Quote from restan:
Jack seems to have had extensive experience withTelechart. i have used it for years, but i think it is lacking in the necessities for Hershey trading. i want to have the mosy versatile tool availble, since they are all comparably priced and i wondered if Jack has used this platform recently and is familiar with the new Snap Sheets. if so, i would appreciate his comments on this service. restan.
...............
Spyder, I noticed on the new chartscript, and the old 4.1, that you used a green and red shading for the MACD when it is above and below the 0.4 level. I remember reading something about it in the beginner rockets and iceburg setups, but i thought those mainly applied to futures. Could you explain how the +/- 0.4 MACD level is to be used in equities. TIA
Quote from TimDog:
Spyder, I noticed on the new chartscript, and the old 4.1, that you used a green and red shading for the MACD when it is above and below the 0.4 level. I remember reading something about it in the beginner rockets and iceburg setups, but i thought those mainly applied to futures. Could you explain how the +/- 0.4 MACD level is to be used in equities. TIA
Quote from TimDog:
Spyder, I noticed on the new chartscript, and the old 4.1, that you used a green and red shading for the MACD when it is above and below the 0.4 level. I remember reading something about it in the beginner rockets and iceburg setups, but i thought those mainly applied to futures. Could you explain how the +/- 0.4 MACD level is to be used in equities. TIA
__________________
Spyder, would you mention the chartscripts you now use? also, are you still
using Qcharts? i use TC2000, which is easy to use, but i don't think it is
suitable for Hershey/Spyder trading. i'm a rookie and my confusion is compounded
by the variety of trading
platforms, data souces and the different variety of ''tools'' used by the
different posters. if possible, maybe you would be so kind as to list your
souces for all the information you gather in order to trade as you do. my
mileage has varied. thanks, restan
Data
Quote from restan:
if possible, maybe you would be so kind as to list your sources for all the information you gather in order to trade as you do. my mileage has varied. thanks, restan
__________________
Thanks Spyder, i remember you saying that the merger between e-signal and qcharts may cause you to change services. in the wealth lab, which chartscripts do you now use? i see there are a number of them available? thanks again Roy
Quote from Spydertrader:
Rather than explain, how about I show you how to 'see' it yourself?
Head on over to Wealth-Lab.com and enter into the Chartscript any Final Universe Symbol. Note the chart location where MACD Histogram exceeds 0.4 levels. Now, look at the price pane. Notice anything significant? Hint: It's Blue.
If you experience difficulty seeing it, log in and set the price bar spacing to 8 (gives you wider price bar separation).
If it still isn't clear, please let me know.
- Spydertrader
Dogs and Poodles
Quote from TimDog:
Am I on the right track here?
__________________
Re: Dogs and Poodles
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. you are headed in the right direction. What I wanted you to note was the blue lines in the price pane. Many of the 20% (or more) runs occur when the MACD Histogram finds itself above the 0.4 level. Now, that doesn't mean every 0.4 level turns into a 20% run. It's sorta' like "All poodles are dogs, but not all dogs are poodles.
- Spydertrader
Re: Dogs and Poodles
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. you are headed in the right direction. What I wanted you to note was the blue lines in the price pane. Many of the 20% (or more) runs occur when the MACD Histogram finds itself above the 0.4 level. Now, that doesn't mean every 0.4 level turns into a 20% run. It's sorta' like "All poodles are dogs, but not all dogs are poodles."
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Dogs and Poodles
Quote from PointOne:
Am I missing something and 0.4 "just works"?
Worry about the
math later. For now,
Go Look and see what happens to Price when MACD Histogram > 0.4 takes place.
Hint: The blue lines in the Price Pane Window represent 20% or more moves in
price.__________________
Quote from restan:
Spyder, would you mention the chartscripts you now use? also, are you still using Qcharts? i use TC2000, which is easy to use, but i don't think it is suitable for Hershey/Spyder trading. i'm a rookie and my confusion is compounded by the variety of trading
platforms, data souces and the different variety of ''tools'' used by the different posters. if possible, maybe you would be so kind as to list your souces for all the information you gather in order to trade as you do. my mileage has varied. thanks, restan
Quote from Ezzy:
I use TC2000 as well. It is too restrictive for this method IMO. Maybe if you did the end of day version it might work out. Jack used the old version but when they updated it around 2000(?) his functions or scan wouldn't work.
I haven't used the intraday version. It is possible to make a scan that will emulate the lists here. Maybe snapsheets will help as well. After trying Qcharts I was spoiled so though I still have TC2000, not using it.
Regards - EZ
update post
I have been MIA working away trying to really nail down this equities stuff.
I think I am near the end of the tunnel so to speak and have realized that it
was KISS all along.
These journals really are the nuts and bolts of equities trading.
For those just getting into this stuff, AMT4SWA's posts on cycles really helped
me re-align and get back on the right track.
Good fortunes to everyone in the new year!!!!
jc
Re: update post
Quote from nwbprop:
For those just getting into this stuff, AMT4SWA's posts on cycles really helped me re-align and get back on the right track.
__________________
Quote from nwbprop:
I just signed up for snapsheets and telecharts.
I use to use Daily Graphs and prophet.net but think tc will be much better for sector analysis.
Do you know if tc/snapsheets has an indicator simliar to unusual vol in qcharts?
I see we are now having a decent discussion on Telechart. For those that
don't know, to give you an idea of how good the program is, I have probably
spent a minimum of 15,000 USD on trading software over the years, and it is one
of the best packages I've ever used. The ability to quickly scan charts, group
charts, import symbols, etc for 25 USD / month is incredible.
I've taken a stab at creating a scan with Telechart 2007 using as much of the
Hershey method as possible. The only problem is that while I get a universe of
roughly 200 stocks, they bear little resemblance to the stocktables.com list.
I'll take a look at my settings and see if together we can't work it out.
TC2000
I don't want to go get too far off topic here, hopefully this will help out.
You need to create PCF's or scans that will emulate the EPS and RS of IBD. You
can get close but you won't get a match because we don't know exactly how IBD
does the calcs. Plus TC's Fundamentals will only let you go so far with the EPS.
A study the EPS values in IBD shows they weight each criteria they use, you can
have a bad quarter in earnings but all other data (profit margins, ROE etc) were
good and still might keep you at over 80 EPS. Can't do that in TC as you have to
set minimum and maximum levels for each criteria. RS is a bit easier. While I
could provide scans or pcf's that would get you close, I believe it would be
damaging to the learning process here and divert the focus from where it needs
to be.
Getting the "quality universe" is only part of the puzzle. While I'd love to
into pcfs and scans, the IBD type scans used here are followed by a lot of
people trading different methods - the >RS80, >EPS80. That helps the quality as
so many people are looking at and trading these stocks because of their positive
qualities - a modern day "margin of safety". You rarely have one of these
getting cut in half overnight as you would in a different group.
It's much more important to get the trading method down. Later down the road,
the group variances won't matter as much.
Regards - EZ
Re: Re: update post
Quote from Spydertrader:
Welcome Back!
You have a link to those posts by any chance?
- Spydertrader
SWFT Update
Notice how price respected the left trend line line on the following two days
after drawing it in?
Let's keep following along ...
- Spydertrader
__________________
Since learning the significance of the FTT (failure to traverse) I have become much more picky about which trades I take. Of the 4 stocks in DU for Monday, this one has a channel picture much more to my liking than the others in DU.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Hey bundlemaker,
Quote from bundlemaker:
Since learning the significance of the FTT (failure to traverse) I have become much more picky about which trades I take. Of the 4 stocks in DU for Monday, this one has a channel picture much more to my liking than the others in DU.
).
In this case, do we see a B2B forming? OR,
NVEC
In at $29.75. anyone else playing this? Appears to have bounced from trend
channel drawn from Nov high and Dec 18th low.
Cheers
will it FRV at EOD?
Re: NVEC
Quote from virgintrader:
In at $29.75. anyone else playing this?
__________________
This probably has come up many times before, however, it can't hurt to state
it again.
Past picks bear watching, even if they may not be on the official Final Universe
and not on your watchlist for today.
For example, I've been partial to COGO ever since it became my first successful
Hershey pick last year. Look at the 30 min on COGO since 26 Dec 2006. 1 to 2
dollars every couple of days in profit.
Another one I'm partial to is GROW. The name alone makes it worth putting on a
permanent watchlist.
Watchlist 08 Jan 2007
For DryUp 3 I had:
GIGM IAAC NVEC SIM
and for DryUp 6 I had:
GIGM NVEC RATE
Based on my analysis, looking at the 30 min chart following the posted
guidelines, the only stock that would have been a buy today from my choices
above was NVEC. The 0900 30 min bar is incredible. You could have gotten in on
the open of the 0930 for roughly 29.00 USD. Looks like we might close at 31.90
or so.
Quote from johnpinochet:
You could have gotten in on the open of the 0930 for roughly 29.00 USD.
__________________
I got in NVEC a little late, too - just below $30. I noticed they're
scheduled to announce earnings after the close this Wednesday - just a heads up
for anyone else who may have entered today.
SIM appears to be in dry up again today after touching the LTL yesterday. Maybe
a good one to keep an eye on tomorrow AM.
First trade after being away from it for a very long time. Just starting up
again so starting with paper trading. This is what I have for today...
The following stocks are in DU today.
GIGM NVEC RATE
Volume Alerts:
NVEC 11:10AM PRICE:29.56 UP/DN:UP MACD:0.1318 STOCH:79.89
-- 11:15 took trade 240 @ 29.60
-- Reached FRV so held position, close @ 31.88
Please see the following press release for NVEC, released today at 4:06 PM on
the DJ newswire:
NVE Quarterly Results Conference Call Scheduled
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn., Jan. 8, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- NVE Corporation
(Nasdaq:NVEC) announced that it plans to release its financial results for the
quarter ended December 31, 2006 on Wednesday, January 17, 2007 after the close
of the Nasdaq Regular Market. The next day, Thursday, January 18, 2007, the
company will hold its quarterly conference call at 10:00 a.m. CST.
It appears that we don't have to worry about earnings for this postion this
week. If someone has a different earnings date, please let me know. Generally,
Esignal's Dow Jones news service has been spot on in the past, so I was going to
rely on the above information.
- Huskydog
Quote from buffalow:
I got in NVEC a little late, too - just below $30. I noticed they're scheduled to announce earnings after the close this Wednesday - just a heads up for anyone else who may have entered today.
The company website lists the conference call for Thursday, January 18, as
noted in the Dow Jones press release:
http://www.nve.com/investorEvents.php
Quote from Huskydog:
Please see the following press release for NVEC, released today at 4:06 PM on the DJ newswire:
NVE Quarterly Results Conference Call Scheduled
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn., Jan. 8, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- NVE Corporation
(Nasdaq:NVEC) announced that it plans to release its financial results for the
quarter ended December 31, 2006 on Wednesday, January 17, 2007 after the close
of the Nasdaq Regular Market. The next day, Thursday, January 18, 2007, the
company will hold its quarterly conference call at 10:00 a.m. CST.
It appears that we don't have to worry about earnings for this postion this week. If someone has a different earnings date, please let me know. Generally, Esignal's Dow Jones news service has been spot on in the past, so I was going to rely on the above information.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
It appears that we don't have to worry about earnings for this postion this week.
- Huskydog [/B]
Final Universe Update
I added HWCC and CRVL to the Final Universe.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nice little move so far. Hope it keeps moving for you.
- Spydertrader
, it is a
challenge trying to monitor these things during the course of the day...any tips
would be appreciated. Being in the westcoast also means that sometimes I cannot
watch the low band DU being hit (as I'm on the road by 7nish pst most of the
time).
Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from virgintrader:
On position sizing, should one go for a fixed shared size or a fixed dollar amount? If one had $25K to start, how many positions should that be?
__________________
ESCL
ESCL to be
delisted.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from virgintrader:
I've got a stop on NVEC at $31.20
Re: Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from buffalow:
I'm wondering how you arrived at this price for your stop.
__________________
Oops
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from buffalow:
I'm wondering how you arrived at this price for your stop.
of $31.20 just happens to be the
centerline of the channel drawn as per my previous post. The upper part of this
channel is at the $34 range (make or break it?)
virgintrader,
I find your thoughts on your NVEC trade very helpful.
Thank you for the detailed postings.
Spyder, im hoping you can give me a little help with the "rocket" trades. I understand the setup that is needed on the daily chart, but i am having trouble with the entry. I know in your camtasia video you mentioned that when u have a rocket setup you go down to the 5min chart and wait for DU to be hit and enter when the MACD turns positive. Is this the only entry criteria that is needed for these trades? Is there any criteria for the 30min chart? Could you explain your process for a rocket trade from analyzing a daily chart down to the entry. TIA
Quote from TimDog:
Could you explain your process for a rocket trade from analyzing a daily chart down to the entry.
__________________
SWFT Update
Updated SWFT Chart
__________________
Dry Up Stocks
Dry Up Stocks
BITS CTRN DTLK GIGM HWCC MIKR XING
You might also keep an eye on
TXRH ASCA CRZO
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from TCRhodes:
virgintrader,
I find your thoughts on your NVEC trade very helpful.
Thank you for the detailed postings.
Re: Dry Up Stocks
Quote from Spydertrader:
Dry Up Stocks
BITS CTRN DTLK GIGM HWCC MIKR XING
You might also keep an eye on
TXRH ASCA CRZO
- Spydertrader
CTRN - The increase in volume looks like it could be creating an FTT. The
beautiful thing about this is that following the Hershey Stock criteria, if it
were to signal properly tomorrow it would create a perfect FTT as I understand
it. If it doesn't signal then we know it's not an FTT because the volume does
not support it. I think.
DTLK - Again, looking back I think I have drawn my down channel incorrectly. It doesn't matter in the end (because I wasn't watching this stock at the time) but if I had drawn it correctly, I would have seen that FTT in time to act on it. At this point we are beyond that channel and at the LTL of the current channel. This makes me wary, as a signal tomorrow would simply be a volatility expansion of the current channel, and I don't have a frame of reference for where that could end.
DTLK's chart
GIGM - GIGM to me, is beautiful. A signal (again, FRV + price improvment) tomorrow would confirm the point 3 and I'd feel comfortable riding this all the way back up to the LTL, or FTT, whichever comes first. The volume on this one really stands out.
HWCC - I don't see too much here except an upwards channel with the price being right at the RTL with some decent volume. Looking back it seems to get a decent bounce off these conditions, so a signal would be promising. However, when I draw in the smaller traverse channel I notice that it has fully traversed to the RTL and therefore is NOT and FTT as I understand it. I'm not really sure what to expect after the bounce.
MIKR - This one is tough for me. I have drawn two sets of channels - one where it is now, and one where I expect the final channel to occur. I'm guessing here, this is not something I feel certain about at all. However, I could see a few days of CCC to form a "natural"? point 3 before doing anything else. A signal tomorrow could also create a point 3.
XING - This just simply does not look good to me. Maybe I'm overlooking something, but I just don't see much there other than the downward channel and the price near the RTL.
As for your additions spyder, one of them seems fairly clear to me, but the
other two not as much.
TXRH - This is the one that looks good to me. If it has decent volume tomorrow
and the price improves it will form a P3 on the big channel and an FTT in the
traverse. Both seem to indicate upward movement.
ASCA - I really don't have a handle on this one. It looks to me like it's not quite at it's RTL yet, and in a volatility expansion of the traversing channel. Volume is good, however, maybe my channels are incorrect?
CRZO - Looks alot like TXRH, except I don't have an FTT forming in the
traversing channel, because it's in a volatility expansion. Volume, however
looks outstanding and it looks like it might be testing a recent P3. Is that
what brought this to your attention? I feel much better about CRZO than ASCA,
however.
Sorry for the number of this posts. Maybe someone can tell me how to post
multiple charts with a post? I appreciate any and all comments on this as it
will help me learn!
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from thenewguy:
CRZO - Maybe someone can tell me how to post multiple charts with a post? I appreciate any and all comments on this as it will help me learn!
Thanks,
TNG
Nicely Done
No need to apologize. I appreciate you taking the time to post your
viewpoints, and have no doubt, many will find your insight helpful.
With respect to the three additional stocks, each finds itself in a position for
a possible move to the upside. First as a non-dominant traverse of the down
channel (decreasing black volume) and then (if the planets align properly
), a breakout of that same down
channel (increasing black volume). As you pointed out, the beauty of the system
stems from the fact that if none of the aforementioned situations develop, we
simply pass on the trade. While this situation doesn't represent "trading
between the FTT's" as previously described, we look for a RTL Traverse as a
means to locate the first leg of a Point Three up channel. In other words,
instead of an FTT to FBO resulting in an exit, we reverse (or in this case enter
long).
Thanks again for your analysis.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Old Thinking
Quote from virgintrader:
what if I miss the next leg up if my stop was too tight? hmmmm...nasty habit!
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
Hey Newguy..what program do you use to capture your screen shots? tks
Quote from thenewguy:
Snagit:
Quote from virgintrader:
Hey Newguy..what program do you use to capture your screen shots? tks
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spydertrader, thanks for your explanation of the trailing stop method.
Quote from Spydertrader:
In other words, I'd rather set a stop at a dollar profit and miss out on price running further (after stopping me out), than set the stop too far away (by strictly following a rule set), and risk walking away with nothing - or worse yet, a significant loss.
Quote from virgintrader:
Got stopped out at $31; $1250 for a one day trade. Weirdly enough, while I'm happy I made money and learned (I think; time will tell if it was dumb luck!), the old me is thinking...what if I miss the next leg up if my stop was too tight? hmmmm...nasty habit!
D
Quote from TimDog:
Spyder, im hoping you can give me a little help with the "rocket" trades. I understand the setup that is needed on the daily chart, but i am having trouble with the entry. I know in your camtasia video you mentioned that when u have a rocket setup you go down to the 5min chart and wait for DU to be hit and enter when the MACD turns positive. Is this the only entry criteria that is needed for these trades? Is there any criteria for the 30min chart? Could you explain your process for a rocket trade from analyzing a daily chart down to the entry. TIA
Quote from thenewguy:
GIGM - GIGM to me, is beautiful. A signal (again, FRV + price improvment) tomorrow would confirm the point 3 and I'd feel comfortable riding this all the way back up to the LTL, or FTT, whichever comes first. The volume on this one really stands out.
Quote from thenewguy:
HWCC - I don't see too much here except an upwards channel with the price being right at the RTL with some decent volume. Looking back it seems to get a decent bounce off these conditions, so a signal would be promising. However, when I draw in the smaller traverse channel I notice that it has fully traversed to the RTL and therefore is NOT and FTT as I understand it. I'm not really sure what to expect after the bounce.
forgot the updated HWCC chart....
Quote from thenewguy:
MIKR - This one is tough for me. I have drawn two sets of channels - one where it is now, and one where I expect the final channel to occur. I'm guessing here, this is not something I feel certain about at all. However, I could see a few days of CCC to form a "natural"? point 3 before doing anything else. A signal tomorrow could also create a point 3.
Quote from thenewguy:
As for your additions spyder, one of them seems fairly clear to me, but the other two not as much.
TXRH - This is the one that looks good to me. If it has decent volume tomorrow and the price improves it will form a P3 on the big channel and an FTT in the traverse. Both seem to indicate upward movement.
Quote from thenewguy:
On the flip side, I played MIKR for a loss today. There were multiple screw ups on this, including putting on way too much size which forced me to be extra precautious and bail close to the bottom. The most frusterating part is that it really behaved exactly how I thought it might last night and I disregarded my own advice and bought it. Oh well, live and learn.
Thanks,
TNG
HWCC
While HWCC didn't show actual volume exceeding calculated FRV levels by EOD,
we did see both Price and Volume improvement. In addition to following SWFT,
let's watch how HWCC unfolds over the next few days.
- Spydertrader
__________________
09 Jan 2007
Bought NVEC 30.76 (ouch)
10 Jan 2007
Bought SWFT 27.30
Bought HWCC 20.50
Bought CTRN 39.40
Bought GIGM 9.42
I'm willing to hold all my 10 Jan 2007 stocks, but NVEC is puzzling. Personally
on a cycle basis, I would be buying right now if I didn't have any, but per the
Hershey method it looks like it died and I should exit. Any comments?
BTW, above is real money, 100 to 200 shares each. I'm dedicating a portion of my
trading account to Hershey's method.
SWFT Update
__________________
Quote from johnpinochet:
09 Jan 2007
Bought NVEC 30.76 (ouch)
NVEC is puzzling.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
What prompted you to buy this? Perhaps, a better question would be, what portion of the Hershey Methodology are you following? Beginner? Intermediate? Advanced?
- Spydertrader
Quote from johnpinochet:
Nice form of self-talk therapy, isn't it?
At least, you answered your own
question.__________________
Quote from bdolnik:
Here's a free one that I use which works great... http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html
I wish I would have gotten out of NVEC when you did virgintrader
Re: Old Thinking
Quote from Spydertrader:
That old thinking (as you call it) serves you no good purpose. Set it aside and leave it exactly where it belongs - in the past. As to 'dumb luck' influencing your trade outcome, you know what they say,
"Chance favors the prepared mind."
Nicely done and keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
I have the following in DU for tonight:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM NVEC XING
I have attached a chart of DXPE for your review. I am just learning how to draw
channels, and I hope to get some opinions on the chart. Thanks to thenewguy for
posting all of his charts last night. Your posts help me see how my channel
drawing is progressing.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
I have the following in DU for tonight:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM NVEC XING
I have attached a chart of DXPE for your review. I am just learning how to draw channels, and I hope to get some opinions on the chart. Thanks to thenewguy for posting all of his charts last night. Your posts help me see how my channel drawing is progressing.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
I have the following in DU for tonight:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM NVEC XING
I have attached a chart of DXPE for your review. I am just learning how to draw channels, and I hope to get some opinions on the chart. Thanks to thenewguy for posting all of his charts last night. Your posts help me see how my channel drawing is progressing.
- Huskydog
Quote from thenewguy:
Anytime! Yours looks exactly the same as mine. I had the steep traverse drawn in earlier (I'll post that next), and it looks like a possible FTT forming right where we're at, but again, I wouldn't do anything without a signal on it tomorrow which would confirm an FTT in my books.
Thanks,
TNG
Here is my second take on DXPE. On a smaller fractal it looks like I can draw
two additional channels. (I have removed the one from the previous drawing to
make the difference clear). Notice, in EITHER scenario we are essentially
waiting for the same thing - a signal to confirm what is possibly happening. In
the last post, we are waiting for a signal to confirm the possible p3, which
would lead me to believe the price is ready to traverse to the LTL again. In the
second drawing, it looks like a possible FTT from the steeper smaller channel
which could lead to a BO of that trend which would also be the start of a new
upward traverse channel.
Either way, it amounts to the same thing, imho.
Thanks,
TNG
DXPE
Let's montor this one tomorrow as well to see where it goes and how the
Volume Gaussians develop.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Huskydog:
Much obliged to you! Thanks.
DU Stocks
Quote from Huskydog:
I have the following in DU for tonight:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM NVEC XING
__________________
Re: DU Stocks
Quote from Spydertrader:
I also have the same list.
- Spydertrader
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from Huskydog:
I have the following in DU for tonight:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM NVEC XING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hmmm. In addition to the list you all have for stocks currently in DU, I've
found that the WL Script (Hershey Equities Chartscript Version 4.2) additionally
identifies SIM, SIRF, and CTRN.
Have you excluded these for a specific reason? It looks like CTRN's average
volume is below 200k at around 173k and should be excluded, but I cannot
determine a reason for SIM and SIRF.
-Buffalow
Three other stocks I am watching tomorrow are HWCC, DTLK and CTRN.
HWCC - I'm waiting for a pullback before I look for a set up on this stock. I'll
probably put a volume alert at 1/4 the 65 day average, and if it hits that in
the morning I'll take another look at it.
CTRN - If it makes a run at the RTL I would be interested in this again. I want
to say there's a good chance that this hits CCC for a bit and bounces between
the two trend lines before anything else happens. Again, I will set a volume
alarm and ignore it until that is hit.
DTLK - I would expect it to continue down tomorrow and I will only be paying
attention at the $7.73 area where it looks like good support from the RTL. I am
going to put a price alert at $7.80 and watch how it behaves around there.
All comments welcome!
Thanks,
TNG
Re: Re: DU Stocks
Quote from thenewguy:
The chart for NVEC is attached. The only thing that concerns me is that the new 1,2,3 points are very small, and located within the channel still. In my mind this means either that 1) this traverse is small and will only go to the RTL of the down channel, or 2) the real point 2 isn't formed yet, and a break out of the RTL of the down channel would confirm that. If NVEC signals tomorrow I will take the trade, however, I will be watching it very close around the $33 area.
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from buffalow:
SIM, SIRF, and CTRN. Have you excluded these for a specific reason?
__________________
And finally, TXRH. I will be watching this for a signal (something like 1/4
65 day av volume, plus price improvement, plus stoch/macd) before buying it. It
looks "cleared for take off" to me, but what I'm most concerned about is it
forming a point 2 and retracing to form a p3 right after I buy it. I think the
correct thing to do was to hold it from yesterday and wait for an FTT to form
telling you to get out. However, I exited early and will now base my re-entry on
some solid signals. If it shows a p2 tomorrow I will wait for the p3 to form
before touching it again.
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from buffalow:
[BHmmm. In addition to the list you all have for stocks currently in DU, I've found that the WL Script (Hershey Equities Chartscript Version 4.2) additionally identifies SIM, SIRF, and CTRN.
Have you excluded these for a specific reason? It looks like CTRN's average volume is below 200k at around 173k and should be excluded, but I cannot determine a reason for SIM and SIRF.
-Buffalow [/B]
Re: CTRN
Quote from thenewguy:
CTRN - If it makes a run at the RTL I would be interested in this again. I want to say there's a good chance that this hits CCC for a bit and bounces between the two trend lines before anything else happens. Again, I will set a volume alarm and ignore it until that is hit.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
SIM is an AMEX stock, While I have it in The Final Universe for those that follow the Journals, I don't trade AMEX stocks - so I eliminate them from my Watch Lists. As to CTRN and SIRF, check their rank.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Huskydog:
I ran Spydertrader's Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Many traders use both scans.
- Spydertrader
No Rank?
Quote from buffalow:
Do you refrain from trading Final Universe stocks (not tenured) immediately when they fail rank?
__________________
Quote from Huskydog:
CTRN and SIRF are both in my Final Universe. Neither security was returned when I ran Spydertrader's Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0. Perhaps you ran this scan and obtained different results?
Quote from buffalow:
It's been several years since I last worked with WL code, but I may take a more detailed look at the script to pull the trendlines off the charts.
Feel free to take a run at it,
and I'd be more than happy to update the code. In their current state,
the automatic trendlines are designed to give an overall 'quick picture' of what
is going on. If things look good, then hand drawing in correctly annotated
trendlines permits a more accurate view. This was as close as I could get, but
then again, I am no programmer. __________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes, well, it annoys the hell out of me as well.
- Spydertrader
Quote from thenewguy:
Three other stocks I am watching tomorrow are HWCC, DTLK and CTRN.
HWCC - I'm waiting for a pullback before I look for a set up on this stock. I'll probably put a volume alert at 1/4 the 65 day average, and if it hits that in the morning I'll take another look at it.
CTRN - If it makes a run at the RTL I would be interested in this again. I want to say there's a good chance that this hits CCC for a bit and bounces between the two trend lines before anything else happens. Again, I will set a volume alarm and ignore it until that is hit.
DTLK - I would expect it to continue down tomorrow and I will only be paying attention at the $7.73 area where it looks like good support from the RTL. I am going to put a price alert at $7.80 and watch how it behaves around there.
All comments welcome!
Thanks,
TNG
Trades for today..
NVEC at $31 (hmmm..double dipping allowed?)
CRZO at @26
I gotta run; i'll post the charts later tonight. Good luck guys (and to me).
Here is my problem now...I have NO way to monitor FRV or not before EOD to close
the position; im using today's low as the stop. Suggestions anyone?
Again, Thanks
Quote from virgintrader:
Trades for today..
NVEC at $31 (hmmm..double dipping allowed?)
CRZO at @26
I gotta run; i'll post the charts later tonight. Good luck guys (and to me). Here is my problem now...I have NO way to monitor FRV or not before EOD to close the position; im using today's low as the stop. Suggestions anyone?
Again, Thanks
And now DXPE @ 32.42. Busy morning!
Thanks,
TNG
As far as purchasing DXPE and NVEC... are you guys not waiting on DU for
these? I have DU at 64,789 and 316,622 respectively. Neither of which had been
hit today when you guys posted your buys. Am I missing something?
Thanks!
Quote from bdolnik:
As far as purchasing DXPE and NVEC... are you guys not waiting on DU for these? I have DU at 64,789 and 316,622 respectively. Neither of which had been hit today when you guys posted your buys. Am I missing something?
Thanks!
Quote from thenewguy:
I buy at the lower band of DU. 32,474 for DXPE and 158,754 for NVEC.
Thanks,
TNG
Although others don't trade Amex stocks, I do, and I am in SIM @ 13.70.
Thanks,
TNG
Thanks newguy, I had been using the Average DU rather than the Low Band. I appreciate the link that clarifies that.
GIGM as well @ 9.90.
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from bdolnik:
Thanks newguy, I had been using the Average DU rather than the Low Band. I appreciate the link that clarifies that.
Bought COGO at 19.55 earlier this AM.
11 Jan 2007 Watchlist
via DryUp 3 scan:
BITS COGO DXPE GIGM SIM XING
via Bruno add:
ACOR NVEC
What is funny is I thought NVEC was on my DryUp 3 scan list earlier this AM and
when I did it again recently, it isn't there.
Seeing it in the DryUp 3 scan as well as others posting it here in their scan
led me to stay in the trade rather than exiting.
I am in:
NVEC at 30.94
DXPE at 32.42
I took a postion in COGO at 19.55, but when I looked at the chart a second time
the Stochastic didn't meet the entry criteria. I exited COGO at 19.32.
DU Calcs
Quote from thenewguy:
Maybe the process changed somewhere down the line again and I missed it?
__________________
FYI for future reference, look at GROW on the 30 minute chart, and draw in a
channel using the 0900 hrs 05 Jan 2007 bar low. It is not on today's watchlist,
but I imagine sooner or later we'll see it again this year.
I'm not sure if it has already been stated, I'm sure it has as grow has been on
the list forever, but in case a newbie is reading this, GROW is a wonderful
proxy for the emerging markets. That is what the business is, fund management.
Quote from Huskydog:
I am in:
NVEC at 30.94
DXPE at 32.42
I took a postion in COGO at 19.55, but when I looked at the chart a second time the Stochastic didn't meet the entry criteria. I exited COGO at 19.32.
I finally got stopped out of COGO @ 18.85 for a .60 loss.
Thanks,
TNG
Anyone watching BITS? I think its worth watching into the close.
I saw BITS as it was crossing the RTL. I passed on it because I was already
fully loaded for the day. Oh well, I'm going to keep this one on my radar.
Thanks,
TNG
I picked up 1000 at 9.029. I am watching to see if FRV is met at EOD. I think
it is acting well after getting over the high of the consolidation, but I'll let
the market tell me if I'm right.
Quote from Huskydog:
I picked up 1000 at 9.029. I am watching to see if FRV is met at EOD. I think it is acting well after getting over the high of the consolidation, but I'll let the market tell me if I'm right.
Today's summary:
--bot 700 COGO at 19.55, sold 700 at 19.32 for previously state reason;
--bot 400 NVEC at 30.942, sold 400 at 30.243 because FRV not met, I was under
water on the position, and I didn't like the spot in the channel that I as long
at;
--bot 400 DXPE at 32.4269, holding postion do to thenewguy's stated reason
-- bot 1000 BITS at 9.029 in my work account, FRV met, and interestingly enough,
all the Hershey requirements were met (except for volume, which came in at EOD)
at time of purchase at 13:56:59;
-- bot 1600 BITS at 9.19 at EOD, FRV met as well as stochastic, MACD, price
imrovement, and stock looks like it is emerging from consolidation.
Note: all purchases are in my thinkorswim (ToS) account unless otherwise noted.
Commentary is always appreciated.
- Huskydog
Any ideas or forum references for managing exits in an "next day" fashion? My
main reason for dedicating a portion of my trading account to this method is to
get away from constantly watching the screen. I can give it maybe 3 - 4 hours in
the AM (CST) but not more than that.
In any event, I think I'd like to handle exits the next day regardless as I
believe from reading here and the previous journal, many are exiting way too
early. After all the original premise was the stock cycling over a period of
days
I've kept all of my positions so far and added DXPE, but I don't have the price
handy.
So far I'm up on everything (almost) and I believe I've approached or surpassed
5% on average.
NVEC continues to puzzle and COGO looks like it will be a companion to NVEC.
John _ am a rank beginner and my method may not be helpful to you. However, I
enter using the Bruno R setup and exit whenever the "long" stoch dips below the
80 line.
I can do that by monitoring a short time in the morning and again in the
afternoon.
Don
On another note I need some help. I must have "Oltimers" disorder.
In the past I was able to scan a list of stocks and get their ranks,
Now I try and do this and I am unable.
Can anyone help e?
Thanls
Don
Quote from johnpinochet:
Any ideas or forum references for managing exits in an "next day" fashion?
Re: No Rank?
Hello all,
I've been lurking for a while but this is my first post. Thanks to Spydertrader,
Jack Hershey, and everyone else who has contributed to these journals. As a
Wyckoff student, I'm excited to see some other traders out there who are focused
on the interrelationship between price and volume. I've read Journals I, II, and
III, as well as the Futures Journal. I thought I was trading the beginner's
equity system correctly until Spydertrader's recent post. I now realize I may
have gotten confused on a couple of issues along the way. I'd appreciate it if
Spydertrader or anyone else can help eliminate my confusion with regards to the
following:
Quote from Spydertrader:
In Journals One and Two, I avoided trading any stock which lost its rank. Too often, a stock which lost rank one day would tank within a few days of finding itself benched.
Quote from odelys:
From my point of view it seems to me that clearing the final universe on a daily basis makes more sense than cleaning it only once a month on a "jour fix". I think stocks that do not fulfill the requirements, have no right to stay within the list. Any arguments on that?
Often, a stock which loses its rank on one day, regains ranked status within a few days. Similarly, an equity might fall below the average daily volume minimum for a few days, only to rise above the minimum a week later. In both these examples, we still had high quality stocks. They just didn't meet our minimum requirement over a certain period of time. As the 200,000 share minimum reflects a "trading account size" parameter, rather than a "system" parameter, it seems silly to disregard a possible equity simply because it temporarily falls below an arbitrary standard (some individuals DO trade equities below this level of volume using smaller account sizes). Over time, the Final Universe List expands and contracts based on daily additions and monthly deletions.
(Spydertrader)
However, things work a bit differently in Journal III. While I have still posted the DU Stocks based on the Chartscript Volume Calculations, you'll notice I have also posted a number of "Outside the Box" Charts recently. As I explained in this post, I hope to expand the horizons of those following along. As such, I encourage you to not only focus on your Final Universe Stocks, but also to focus on the list of stocks obtained by using the additional culling parameters (25% Insider Owned, 25% Institutional owned)
- Spydertrader [/B]
Re: Re: No Rank?
Welcome aboard, and I hope you continue to find the information contained
within the various threads useful to your trading.
I have parsed your questions as such:
Quote from Jason M:
Do you keep them in the Final Universe until the end of the month just in case they regain rank, but avoid trading them until they do so?
Quote from Jason M:
Would someone mind clarifying the two different culling methodologies?
__________________
In the past I was able to scan a list of stocks and get their ranks,
Now I try and do this and I am unable.
Don, I think this is what you are looking for: Hershey Equities Rank Scan v1.0.0
Thank yuo!!!
My Watchlist of stocks in DU for Friday, 1/12:
GIGM, HWCC, MIKR, XING
Quote from virgintrader:
Trades for today..
NVEC at $31 (hmmm..double dipping allowed?)
CRZO at @26
I gotta run; i'll post the charts later tonight. Good luck guys (and to me). Here is my problem now...I have NO way to monitor FRV or not before EOD to close the position; im using today's low as the stop. Suggestions anyone?
Again, Thanks
Quote from buffalow:
My Watchlist of stocks in DU for Friday, 1/12:
GIGM, HWCC, MIKR, XING
PKTR may be worth watching.
Here is my chart of SWFT. I think we will need some extraordinary volume to
push price above the red down trend line (RTL). Perhaps the pennant is offering
a clue. We will have to see.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1323679
VirginTrader,
It's been my experience that closing next day on open yields superior results
for stocks that fail to reach FRV than closing at EOD.
To do this I use an 'OPG' market order (assuming you're trading using IB, not
sure if other brokers have similar orders).
BTW, I live in Australia and auto-trade the 'beginner' system as outlined by
SpyderTrader at the end of Journal 1. Something similar may work for you during
the day while you work. Not sure what setup you have, but it IS possible to
automate much of this.
Quote from Huskydog:
I picked up 1000 at 9.029. I am watching to see if FRV is met at EOD. I think it is acting well after getting over the high of the consolidation, but I'll let the market tell me if I'm right.
Quote from mischief:
VirginTrader,
It's been my experience that closing next day on open yields superior results for stocks that fail to reach FRV than closing at EOD.
To do this I use an 'OPG' market order (assuming you're trading using IB, not sure if other brokers have similar orders).
BTW, I live in Australia and auto-trade the 'beginner' system as outlined by SpyderTrader at the end of Journal 1. Something similar may work for you during the day while you work. Not sure what setup you have, but it IS possible to automate much of this.
Quote from thenewguy:
Nice trade!
I took a bit of a beating today, here is the summary:
NVEC - 1.00 loss. Closed it because the price was behaving poorly, and it looks like a possible FTT of the new, smaller upward channel to me.
COGO - .60 loss, reason's above.
SIM - sold for a wash for not meeting FRV.
DXPE - I'm continuing to hold because it is right at the RTL of the down channel after a possible FTT.
GIGM - I sold for a small loss for not meeting FRV
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from virgintrader:
Nice trade on DXPE! I'm giddy about CRZO right now. It needs to break $27 to break the channel otherwise it'll get sucked back in(?) stop at 26.95
Passed on REDF; hit DU but no price improvement. Bouncing back from $18 upper
channel resistance.
Gotta go..have a good day gang!
Sold 500 BITS at 9.28 in my work account. I have a lot of this stock compared
to its volume, so lightening up on the way up seems smart to me. Still holding
the following:
400 DXPE
1600 BITS
500 BITS in the work account.
Moved stops up (mental stops) in both securities.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
400 DXPE
1600 BITS
500 BITS in the work account.
- Huskydog
DXPE and BITS look very strong today.
I'm in both per earlier post.
Quote from Huskydog:
Sold half of the DXPE at 33.27. I don't like how light the volume is on the way up in this, especially with the S and P futures selling off.
I have been daytrading for over 6 years, and I may have an issue watching my JH swing trades too closely. Time will tell on this one.
All commentary is appreciated.
- Huskydog
Quote from thenewguy:
Micromanaging... I do it too. Often if I feel I'm doing that I simply back out to the daily and work my way down to reorient myself.
TNG
Quote from Huskydog:
Sold half of the DXPE at 33.27. I don't like how light the volume is on the way up in this, especially with the S and P futures selling off.
I have been daytrading for over 6 years, and I may have an issue watching my JH swing trades too closely. Time will tell on this one.
All commentary is appreciated.
- Huskydog
Sold DXPE for 33.92 for a $1.50 gain.
Thanks, and have a good weekend everyone!
TNG
Quote from Huskydog:
.. and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept. ..
I appreciate your input.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
This will probably an issue for me at times. I have only read up to August of Journal II, and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept. When I see the stock going up on light volume, my instincts tell me to be wary. Obviously, I need to finish the second journal to be more comfortable with some of the more advanced concepts.
I appreciate your input.
- Huskydog
My summary for the end of the day:
-- Sold 500 BITS in my work account at 9.28, due to overmanaging the position
(This is precisely why I opened my swing trading account outside of work. I
don't want to sell good postions for the wrong reasons.) I did feel I was a
little heavy in the stock, so I exited a small piece of my total position. Most
likely a mistake, but I'm still learning here.
-- Sold 200 DXPE at 33.27 and sold the other 200 at 33.45 at EOD. The first sell
was due to micromanaging the position. This is most likely due to the fact that
I haven't finished reading up and internalizing the necessary material to trade
the more advanced JH methods. It's tough to stick to the game plan when you
haven't read all the details of the gameplan. I was planning on holding the
other 200 shares if volume continued to increase over yesterday's total, which
it did. However, there is a resistance level around the $34 price level. I see
that thenewguy has identified as a potential FTT on the 30 min fractal after the
end of the day. When the stock retreated from the resistance level down to 33.50
area, I sold. FRV was not met, and I don't have the addtional tools in the
toolbox to justify holding the position for additional days.
-- I am still holding 500 BITS in my work account and 1600 BITS in my
swingtrading account. Price has continued to increase, and volume decreased as
the stock settled into a range. According to my trading plan, I have 2 more days
to hold unless PV is met, I achieve a 10% return, or I am stopped out. Please
see the attached chart.
As always, commentary is welcome.
- Huskydog
Based off of the 30 min chart only, I exited my positions in:
COGO SWFT NVEC CTRN HWCC
Looking at the wealth lab daily chart on Saturday morning, 13 Jan 2007, I regret
selling (most to least regret):
CTRN HWCC SWFT
Looking at the daily chart the above 3 look like they have a lot more to go.
I bought new:
XING SIM
I added to:
GIGM BITS DXPE
The above 3 have been my best performers and my decision to add to them appears
justified, i.e. BITS up 1.4%, DXPE up 2.8 % today.
Outside of the method:
I keep a screen of most active up via IB, and I'll occasionally look at it as I
would like to see how the list corressponds with the stocks we watch, as well as
to keep an eye on up and comers.
GLW caught my eye today. Take a look at the daily chart as well as the 30 minute
chart.
SWFT Update
We have followed SWFT for a number of days. During that time, Price has
continued to follow the trend lines we put in place on
this day - 8 days ago. In addition, we witnessed how a trader could have
'daytraded' this stock on two separate occasions in order to make a quick buck.
Now, we see Price has approached the limit of our non-dominant traverse (of the
down trend). How did we know in advance the market had changed? How did
we gauge the change in sentiment which occurred? Why did we choose to hold this
long? One can easily locate the answers to these questions (and so many more) by
following the FTT (Failure to Traverse) using Price Bars and the Gaussian
Patterns evident in the Volume Bars.
By following along each night when I posted an updated chart of SWFT, you
witnessed in real time what so many have referred to as:
Tomorrow's Newspaper, Today
Over the next several months, we will continue to focus more and more of this
Journal on locating these FTT's along with their Gaussian Volume signals in an
effort to greatly improve profitability. Until then, continue to annotate the
charts and notice how volume operates at, near and around an FTT. With respect
to SWFT, begin to anticipate what must come next for 1. Price to Break Out (BO)
of this down channel, or 2. Price to turn and head south.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
FTT in Journal II
Quote from Huskydog:
This will probably an issue for me at times. I have only read up to August of Journal II, and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept.
__________________
Re: SWFT
Looking at the 5, 30 minute and weekly charts, my money is on the BO.
I will enjoy watching on Tues.
Don
SIRF
SIRF
This one hasn't come up on a daily watchlist for a while, but I look at the
chart of every universe member to keep abreast of developments.
Pull up a daily chart of SIRF and plot MACD and RSI in two separate sub windows.
Nice and predictable isn't it? The last time you had a long opportunity like
this was back in October 2006. We went from rougly 21 to 31 and change. We
started this most recent move at roughly 25.
Not exactly a work of art..but just trying to put all the tools you have shared with me together....
Quote from mischief:
VirginTrader,
It's been my experience that closing next day on open yields superior results for stocks that fail to reach FRV than closing at EOD.
To do this I use an 'OPG' market order (assuming you're trading using IB, not sure if other brokers have similar orders).
BTW, I live in Australia and auto-trade the 'beginner' system as outlined by SpyderTrader at the end of Journal 1. Something similar may work for you during the day while you work. Not sure what setup you have, but it IS possible to automate much of this.
Quote from thenewguy:
Thanks, and same to you on CRZO!
fwiw (and take this with a healthy dose of salt), it looks to me like CRZO has some room to grow. (see attached).
Thanks,
TNG
and had a buy stop limit at $27.20 (double dipping again) as I was thinking $27
should be BO as per my chart view. Again, since I cannot monitor the markets
during the day, I wonder if this line of thinking is just inviting added risk
should I get filled and it reverses sometime during the day.
Trendline Feedback
Quote from virgintrader:
As always, appreciate the feedback.
__________________
This is long, long over due as I've been following these journals since a couple of months into the 1st one. I just wanted to say how much I appreciate all the work and effort put forth by Jack, Spyder, Mak and all the good people who have have contributed to this effort. I have learned alot and look forward to continuing the journey. Who knows, maybe I'll have something to add myself. Many thanks, -JC
DU's for tomorrow: COGO GIGM IAAC NVEC SIM. Chart for SIM looks good as long
as it can break above the 20SMA, it's also almost 15% into its next run-up.
Will be watching these as well: FTEK OMRI DXPE LQDT PCCC DTLK BITS
Re: Trendline Feedback
Quote from Spydertrader:
.. as well as, Gaussian formations. Doing so may provide you with the added benefit of learning to trade 'between the FTT's' for the future.
Good Journey to you.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Trendline Feedback
Quote from virgintrader:
can Quotetracker give you DU volume alerts?
My DU3 shows the following to watch for today:
ACOR BITS COGO GIGM IAAC MIKR NVEC SIM XING
I think I only differ on ACOR BITS and XING so far.
ACOR may or may not meet criteria. It is an 80/80 stocktables.com stock. I only
have a minute to post so I have no time to eliminate it if needed. The other
symbols I'm confident that my steps were correct and 100% by the book.
Quote from johnpinochet:
My DU3 shows the following to watch for today:
ACOR BITS COGO GIGM IAAC MIKR NVEC SIM XING
I think I only differ on ACOR BITS and XING so far.
ACOR may or may not meet criteria. It is an 80/80 stocktables.com stock. I only have a minute to post so I have no time to eliminate it if needed. The other symbols I'm confident that my steps were correct and 100% by the book.
I have GIGM as a vol BO and SIRF seems flawed with this morning gap down. SIRF did look textbook before the gap down imo.
I think BITS will be the little engine that could. I'm still waiting for it
to spike though.
So far today I bought more BITS. I sold XING, GLW and DXPE.
Finally I entered new positions in:
COGO ACOR CTRN SWFT HWCC
STEC is looking interesting.
8833broc, I was wondering if you could give a chart example of how you would
use this stop that you posted in J2. TIA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from 8833broc: I've found that the mechanical exit rules that are well
documented in this forum will get you out of trades prematurely. I think a
better method would be to draw a trend line, parallel to the channel trend line
from the low of the daily close, offset by the offset number for your exits. The
trend line is moved on a daily basis to the close of the daily bar offseted by
the offset. And as you get closer to the maximim number of days that you want to
hold or just to lock in profit then follow the same procedure without adjusting
the exit trend line with the offset.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update on BITS:
Price continues to climb while volume is on pace to less than Friday's volume
level. Per JH's Jokari matrix, increasing price with decreasing volume can
signal an imminent change in trend. As a result, I have reduced my exposure in
this equity.
Sold 500 in my work account at 9.55.
Sold 800 in my swing trading acount at 9.5475.
I have tightened up my stop considerably on my remaining shares.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
Update on BITS:
Price continues to climb while volume is on pace to less than Friday's volume level. Per JH's Jokari matrix, increasing price with decreasing volume can signal an imminent change in trend.
- Huskydog
Here is an updated BITS chart.
Bought PCCC at 15.64 this morning, up about 2.8%. Wish I could have caught more of the run today. As of EOD its right at the top of my IT channel so I will be wathcing it tomorrow morning to see if it can breakthru, if not I will be selling.
Quote from OpenTrader:
STEC is looking interesting.
Pointone, could you tell me how you were able to put in the green 50 line in
your stochastichs (5,2,3) display. I emailed QT about doing this awhile ago but
they told me it wasnt possible. Maybe they didnt understand what I ment
Quote from TimDog:
Pointone, could you tell me how you were able to put in the green 50 line in your stochastichs (5,2,3) display. I emailed QT about doing this awhile ago but they told me it wasnt possible. Maybe they didnt understand what I ment
Quote from PointOne:
Sure:
double click on the indicator pane to bring up the Indicators menu
Go to lower indicators
Select Horizontal Line
Move it in the right hand pane to be below the Full Stoch entry using the arrows
Edit it and set value to 50
Click between the black dots on the left to link it to the indicator.
Thanks pointone.
Quote from PointOne:
Sure:
double click on the indicator pane to bring up the Indicators menu
Go to lower indicators
Select Horizontal Line
Move it in the right hand pane to be below the Full Stoch entry using the arrows
Edit it and set value to 50
Click between the black dots on the left to link it to the indicator.
DU's for tomorrow: NVEC BITS DXPE DTLK IAAC SIM GROW (NVEC has earnings after
the close so I will be careful with it)
Also watching: HWCC SYX OMRI STEC REDF FTEK ALY
Quote from TimDog:
DU's for tomorrow: NVEC BITS DXPE DTLK IAAC SIM GROW (NVEC has earnings after the close so I will be careful with it)
Also watching: HWCC SYX OMRI STEC REDF FTEK ALY
oh well!
Quote from TimDog:
DU's for tomorrow: NVEC BITS DXPE DTLK IAAC SIM GROW (NVEC has earnings after the close so I will be careful with it)
Also watching: HWCC SYX OMRI STEC REDF FTEK ALY
in looking at a chart on COGO,i'm seeing a ''toppy'' trend, macd down and
short stoch down. since we are supposed to be trading long, wouldn't it be
better to trade stocks in an uptrend?
IAAC is also in a downtrend with stoch down and bop (balance of power) down.
NVEC looks like a maybe on my charts, and Sim looks like a candidate. i don't
claim to be an expert, but if we are going long, i think we should trade with
the trend, rather than against it or with a stock undergoing consolidation. i
establish my
trend by using a 10da. ma. crossing a 35 da. ma. since the sector
of a stock strongly influences accumulation, perhaps we should also check for
the strongest sectors to pick our stocks in. any comments?
Quote from johnpinochet:
Same, but add NSTR to the DU list.
Got stopped out of my PCCC trade from yesterday. I still had my 2% stop in,
but with the huge decline at the open the price went right through it and I was
filled for a 3.38% loss, it must have been from the news last night about the
company getting a new president. At least it was only a paper trade
Bought REDF (19.38) and STEC (12.56) this morning. We'll see how they work out.
Volume is humming along and the charts look good. Any thoughts?
Ok here is a question about exit strategy if I may.
I purchased GIGM yesterday morning when it signalled at 10:26AM. Purchase price
$10.07. I then watched it slide all the way down to $9.72, wich was still above
my 5% stop. It hit FRV before the end of the day so I stayed in.
It climbed back up to a high of $10.44 as of this writing but now is just
hovering around $10.34. Volume is once again high, hitting FRV for today again
already.
Is this a hold for 2 more days, or with MACD dropping a bit would it be
something to get out of now for a small profit?
Thanks much for any insight!
Quote from bdolnik:
Ok here is a question about exit strategy if I may.
Thanks TimDog, that's exactly what I was looking for... points to consider
and research, as I'm very new to this.
It's only a paper trade so don't worry if it takes a dive
I also picked up GIGM yesterday morning at 10:35 at $10.10 as price was
taking off, it was hitting pro rata FRV and the MACD and STOCH gave buy signals.
Midday, it reversed directions and headed south. As I was down more than 2% at
the end of the first day (Ross's Rule) of a position, I exited about 30 minutes
before the market closed at $9.79.
I didn't feel very good when I saw it shoot up at the open this morning.
Waiting for the next bus...
According to my channels GIGM hit the left side of a longer term channel today, as well as it's shorter term channel. Look at my chart. Longer term lines are in blue. Maybe this will help you make a decision. Does it have enough gas to break through?
Anyone short GROW today, wish I had. If it stays in the down channel(now that it broke the up IT channel) it could keep falling far.
Bummer. I had GROW as a potential short today, but there where no shares available to short from MB trading.
Re: Re: Dry Up Stocks
Quote from thenewguy:
Here is my take on each of these stocks with regards to channels and FTT's. I hope someone finds the comments useful, and I certainly would appreciate all comments on this. I still remain an eager beginner to this method.
BITS - seems to me to be in CCC still. Hitting DU with price improvement would probably signal a BO of the channel. I think if I had drawn the channel prior to that I would have found that I started the RTL of this channel in the wrong spot, and we just had a BO/FBO. However, neither matters because it's in a spot where DU/FRV and price improvement would signal that it's on it's way to creating a point 2, to me anyway.
Quote from thenewguy:
CTRN - The increase in volume looks like it could be creating an FTT. The beautiful thing about this is that following the Hershey Stock criteria, if it were to signal properly tomorrow it would create a perfect FTT as I understand it. If it doesn't signal then we know it's not an FTT because the volume does not support it. I think.
Quote from thenewguy:
DTLK - Again, looking back I think I have drawn my down channel incorrectly. It doesn't matter in the end (because I wasn't watching this stock at the time) but if I had drawn it correctly, I would have seen that FTT in time to act on it. At this point we are beyond that channel and at the LTL of the current channel. This makes me wary, as a signal tomorrow would simply be a volatility expansion of the current channel, and I don't have a frame of reference for where that could end.
DTLK's chart
Quote from thenewguy:
GIGM - GIGM to me, is beautiful. A signal (again, FRV + price improvment) tomorrow would confirm the point 3 and I'd feel comfortable riding this all the way back up to the LTL, or FTT, whichever comes first. The volume on this one really stands out.
Quote from thenewguy:
HWCC - I don't see too much here except an upwards channel with the price being right at the RTL with some decent volume. Looking back it seems to get a decent bounce off these conditions, so a signal would be promising. However, when I draw in the smaller traverse channel I notice that it has fully traversed to the RTL and therefore is NOT and FTT as I understand it. I'm not really sure what to expect after the bounce.
Quote from thenewguy:
HWCC respected the RTL perfectly and bounced very nicely off of it.
Quote from thenewguy:
MIKR - This one is tough for me. I have drawn two sets of channels - one where it is now, and one where I expect the final channel to occur. I'm guessing here, this is not something I feel certain about at all. However, I could see a few days of CCC to form a "natural"? point 3 before doing anything else. A signal tomorrow could also create a point 3.
Quote from thenewguy:
XING - This just simply does not look good to me. Maybe I'm overlooking something, but I just don't see much there other than the downward channel and the price near the RTL.
Quote from thenewguy:
As for your additions spyder, one of them seems fairly clear to me, but the other two not as much.
TXRH - This is the one that looks good to me. If it has decent volume tomorrow and the price improves it will form a P3 on the big channel and an FTT in the traverse. Both seem to indicate upward movement.
Quote from thenewguy:
ASCA - I really don't have a handle on this one. It looks to me like it's not quite at it's RTL yet, and in a volatility expansion of the traversing channel. Volume is good, however, maybe my channels are incorrect?
Quote from thenewguy:
CRZO - Looks alot like TXRH, except I don't have an FTT forming in the traversing channel, because it's in a volatility expansion. Volume, however looks outstanding and it looks like it might be testing a recent P3. Is that what brought this to your attention? I feel much better about CRZO than ASCA, however.
Sorry for the number of this posts. Maybe someone can tell me how to post multiple charts with a post? I appreciate any and all comments on this as it will help me learn!
Thanks,
TNG
The end result of learning to use channels over the last year or so is that I
am very convinced of their usefulness (and especially FTT's). The problems I had
this week were with execution and lack of conviction. Looking back at these
charts it's hard to believe I didn't have a very profitable week. At least I
know what I need to work on!
All comments are welcome!
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from TimDog:
Got stopped out of my PCCC trade from yesterday. I still had my 2% stop in, but with the huge decline at the open the price went right through it and I was filled for a 3.38% loss, it must have been from the news last night about the company getting a new president. At least it was only a paper trade
Bought REDF (19.38) and STEC (12.56) this morning. We'll see how they work out. Volume is humming along and the charts look good. Any thoughts?
Quote from bdolnik:
Ok here is a question about exit strategy if I may.
I purchased GIGM yesterday morning when it signalled at 10:26AM. Purchase price $10.07. I then watched it slide all the way down to $9.72, wich was still above my 5% stop. It hit FRV before the end of the day so I stayed in.
It climbed back up to a high of $10.44 as of this writing but now is just hovering around $10.34. Volume is once again high, hitting FRV for today again already.
Is this a hold for 2 more days, or with MACD dropping a bit would it be something to get out of now for a small profit?
Thanks much for any insight!
Sold REDF for a small lose, that one was up to 3.8% profit and then came back
down. Any suggestions on how i could of handled the trade better.
Still in STEC with a small gain, see how this pans out tomorrow.
Quote from TimDog:
Sold REDF for a small lose, that one was up to 3.8% profit and then came back down. Any suggestions on how i could of handled the trade better.
Still in STEC with a small game, see how this pans out tomorrow.
Quote from thenewguy:
Well, not everything goes according to plan. XING was a rocket this week, but I didn't see it in time. I have drawn in a new channel that shows a potential FTT to explain what happened, but I really don't see the volume to support that as an FTT. Maybe there are some tools that I'm not using that would have helped me here...
I have the following stocks in DU:
BITS DXPE IAAC MIKR.
It will be interesting to see if the new short term channel line holds on DXPE
tomorrow, or if I have to do some redrawing of the trendlines.
- Huskydog
Re: The C+ Code
If somebody still interested in reverse engineering "The Floppies."
I need the following:
1. Sample of TC2000 data located somewhere in TC2000 folder
Files appeared to be like xyz.ndx and(or) xyz.dat files
2. Clarification that TC200 stored volume in 100's.
It actually a C code not a C++.
Stepan
Quote from Spydertrader:
Back in the mid-1990's, one of Jack's students coded an automated Equities Trading program. The student gave a copy of the program to Jack, but Jack never used the program. For those of you who have read the USENET and MSN posts, Jack referred to this program as 'The Floppies.' By clicking the link below, you can download a .zip file containing a copy of this code (in the Floppies Folder). I have yet to experience any success getting the program to work - meaning I cannot turn the thing 'on.'
Merry Christmas!
- Spydertrader
For 'Floppies' Click HERE.
Hey TNG-
Those reviews of your old charts were great! Thanks for posting them.
Quote from Huskydog:
I have the following stocks in DU:
BITS DXPE IAAC MIKR.
It will be interesting to see if the new short term channel line holds on DXPE tomorrow, or if I have to do some redrawing of the trendlines.
- Huskydog
Quote from virgintrader:
Got the same.
Sold CRZO @$27.75 for 0.50 gain
In ASCA@ $29.80 FRV EOD and HWCC@$21.50 did not FRV EOD; will dump tomorrow if it behaves badly!
Missed XING and REDF waiting for it to DU prior to going to work!
good trading tomorrow everyone!
Quote from virgintrader:
Stopped out of CRZO at $29.50 and $21.95 for HWCC. Hope no one got hurt today with GROW and NVEC.
Quote from PointOne:
Does this help?
Quote from buffalow:
Hey Huskeydog,
I'm just a beginner with this, but I marked up a different channel orientation than what you had - I used all pink for my annotations on the chart you posted. It looks to me like the dominant traverse of your blue channel was completed at the time of an FTT in my Long pink channel and followed by R2R volume confirming a trend change to non-dominant traverse back down to the blue RTL. I'd feel a little more confident if the last two red bars had a bit more volume though.
Any other thoughts?
Oh, thanks to Newguy for posting those charts - very impactful.
-buffalow
Quote from PointOne:
Yes: BOT 12.01
Paper trade only though.
STEC;BOT;500;12.01;10:25:32EST;20070116;ISLAND
In IAAC at $22.10 hit LBDU
Quote from buffalow:
Hey Huskeydog,
I'm just a beginner with this, but I marked up a different channel orientation than what you had - I used all pink for my annotations on the chart you posted. It looks to me like the dominant traverse of your blue channel was completed at the time of an FTT in my Long pink channel and followed by R2R volume confirming a trend change to non-dominant traverse back down to the blue RTL. I'd feel a little more confident if the last two red bars had a bit more volume though.
-buffalow
Thanks for
adding to my knowledge base.
STEC XING debrief
Attached is my debrief on my STEC and XING paper-trades.
Comments are welcome, especially on what to look out for next.
(Please bear with me as I experiment with the best posting format.)
For anyone using Quotetracker with IB data feed, have you found that the
average volume column numbers will change in the morning after the open. This
has constantly been happening to me and i cant figure out the problem. For
example, BITS had an average volume of 151900 this morning. Then around 10:00am
this changed to 70000 which is what it says now. I wrote down all the Ave. Vol
for all the stocks in my watchlist and every single one has changed from what it
was at the open until about 10AM. If I go into TWS the average volume has not
changed at all (it still says 151900), and reflects what I would determine the
average volume to be (Accoring to other websites). Does anyone know why every
morning my numbers change around. This is having a huge effect on my %VOL column
as it is based off the average volume. I may get a %VOL singal in the morning
but then around 10am when the numbers all change so does the %VOL, in which case
I should not have had a signal.
I emailed Quotetracker but they didnt really have an answer for me. They said it
had to do with updating, but some of these numbers are changing so drastically
that it cant just be an update, and if it was why was it doing it in the middle
of the session. Plus, TWS is not changing its average volume numbers, only the
average volume in QT is changing.
Any help would be great.
ININ bounced off the RTL @ $18.61
in @ $18.80
a little clarification on the previous post.
ININ bounced off the IT RTL which I had drawn @ 18.69, the low price so far for
the day however is 18.61
I'm probably early on this, but if it continues to behave I'm looking at a
target price around $23.00
Quote from rickylc:
a little clarification on the previous post.
ININ bounced off the IT RTL which I had drawn @ 18.69, the low price so far for the day however is 18.61
I'm probably early on this, but if it continues to behave I'm looking at a target price around $23.00
Quote from PointOne:
ININ looks horrible. Almost as bad as STEC.
Good luck with it.
Quote from TimDog:
For anyone using Quotetracker with IB data feed, have you found that the average volume column numbers will change in the morning after the open.
I emailed Quotetracker but they didnt really have an answer for me. They said it had to do with updating, but some of these numbers are changing so drastically that it cant just be an update, and if it was why was it doing it in the middle of the session. Plus, TWS is not changing its average volume numbers, only the average volume in QT is changing.
Any help would be great.
as ININ has confirmed an FTT and BO of the ST down channel, coupled with the bounce off the IT RTL, I am holding through the weekend.
I also use that setup (IB & QT) - did you do the beta update today?
I am considering switching data providers short term, brokers long term as my IB
feed has been funky for awhile now. Surfing ET it apears a few others also have
concerns over IB data quality (volume funky).
Regards,
tef
__________________
tef8
Quote from tef8:
I am considering switching data providers short term, brokers long term as my IB feed has been funky for awhile now.
Quote from TimDog:
For anyone using Quotetracker with IB data feed, have you found that the average volume column numbers will change in the morning after the open. This has constantly been happening to me and i cant figure out the problem. For example, BITS had an average volume of 151900 this morning. Then around 10:00am this changed to 70000 which is what it says now. I wrote down all the Ave. Vol for all the stocks in my watchlist and every single one has changed from what it was at the open until about 10AM. If I go into TWS the average volume has not changed at all (it still says 151900), and reflects what I would determine the average volume to be (Accoring to other websites). Does anyone know why every morning my numbers change around. This is having a huge effect on my %VOL column as it is based off the average volume. I may get a %VOL singal in the morning but then around 10am when the numbers all change so does the %VOL, in which case I should not have had a signal.
I emailed Quotetracker but they didnt really have an answer for me. They said it had to do with updating, but some of these numbers are changing so drastically that it cant just be an update, and if it was why was it doing it in the middle of the session. Plus, TWS is not changing its average volume numbers, only the average volume in QT is changing.
Any help would be great.
Quote from foible:
IB volume does differ somewhat from my QCharts and eSignal volume but remember that we're really interested in approximations and relative changes. The level of precision in the LBDU on WealthLab (to the nearest share!) is an artifact of the calculation and not a requirement. Unless you're getting some really whack data like IB saying that there have been 125k shares traded and QCharts says there's only 25k then maybe you should do something, but I've never had this problem.
IB reports slightly more shares traded, but I figure this means that I get the entry signal a couple minutes earlier than others. In the big picture, this has never been a big deal.
__________________
tef8
I remember back in 2005 seeing this same issue but even worse. What I mean is
I would look at the chart, see a signal based on price/volume, take the signal
and perform a refresh and have no signal! Suffice it to say it quickly made me
move to DTN's iqfeed. I never had that problem with DTN.
In 2006 however, I rarely see this issue with IB. Not sure if I've been lucky or
not paying attention.
QT Average Volume
TimDog prompted me to look at the volume he was seeing for BITS. It looks
like the average volume displayed on QT is the 10D average until they switch to
the fundamental data server and it then shows the 60D average. For Bits you see
a jump from c. 70,000 to 150,000.
I do not see this as an IB problem at all.
I will watch this more closely next week.
Quote from rickylc:
as ININ has confirmed an FTT and BO of the ST down channel, coupled with the bounce off the IT RTL, I am holding through the weekend.
my interpretation of the same chart. I eliminated the point one you have for
the start of the IT as it is too long ago and the channel it would have formed
became useless. it can be seen as the green channel on the far left.
i like to base the IT on a quarter or about 65 bars.
Quote from rickylc:
my interpretation of the same chart. I eliminated the point one you have for the start of the IT as it is too long ago and the channel it would have formed became useless. it can be seen as the green channel on the far left.
i like to base the IT on a quarter or about 65 bars.
You have a lot of advance warning for the trade.
filter #1.
filter stocks in short IT's that are having FTT's on dominant traverse of the IT.
Filter #2.
List the stock for monitoring and sort the list by "unsual volume".
When it hits .22 on the list at about !0 to 11, then you have about and hour to enter and then price will break out over several days. The volume will really pick up after the IT channel has been broken.
IT means Intermediate Term
FTT mean Failure To Traverse
dominant traverse means the price movement across the IT in the direction of the IT.
Unusual volume is a calculation where you get the decimal perent of the 65 day average volume as a continuous calculation on a list.
The common term for these kind of trades is called "hitting a home run". Most people have seen them and most people do not know how to anticipate them since two filters are required.
You can hold them long than the three days.
However the trades goes, I'm pleased as punch.
It's a kick to be able to trade off of a channel I drew in almost two months ago
and haven't altered since. I was able to establish the channel for the current
IT around the end of November.
Almost two months later, the price bounces off the RTL of the channel, almost to
the penny, freakin' unbelievable
If that doesn't give you a "religious" channel experience, there ain't nothin'
that will
Re: STEC XING debrief
Quote from PointOne:
Attached is my debrief on my STEC and XING paper-trades.
Comments are welcome, especially on what to look out for next.
(Please bear with me as I experiment with the best posting format.)
Greetings!
Can people please post their current FU?
Cheers,
Quote from cipherscribe:
Greetings!
Can people please post their current FU?
Cheers,
Re: Re: STEC XING debrief
Quote from gooch87:
Hi PointOne,
I like the way you presented this evaluation with notes on the side of the chart.
good trading to you
gooch87
Quote from cipherscribe:
Greetings!
Can people please post their current FU?
Cheers,
Thanks Guys,
I appreciate the posts.
There's some that are not on my list, but that's because they have lost rank.
Good trading to you!
Re: Re: Re: STEC XING debrief
Quote from PointOne:
Others may go for the home runs off the FTT but I'm thinking catching the safe 5-10% in the middle of the move is the way to start out.
That's my strategy also.
Good trading.
Don
couple charts to watch, comments appreciated
will IAAC be the next GROW?
BITS MIKR SIM
So I've been reading up but just started actually running some of the scans,
getting Quotetracker working and indicators in place.
Can anyone confirm or deny that the Dryup scan of the final universe right now
yields these three: BITS MIKR SIM ?
I need to get practicing drawing my channels. Should I just use charts of any in
my final universe or try starting with these three? I'm not ready to trade, so
it prob doesn't matter what stocks I use I guess.
I suppose my question is this: Do you guys have channels drawn on charts of each
symbol in your final universe or do you just draw them as needed when one comes
up on a scan?
Re: BITS MIKR SIM
[QUOTE]Quote from sweetdeez:
Can anyone confirm or deny that the Dryup scan of the final universe right now
yields these three: BITS MIKR SIM ?
[QUOTE]
I also have REDF
DU stocks this morning: BITS MIKR REDF (not sure about the AMEX stock). Per
Briefing.com, REDF has earnings tomorrow before the open.
- Huskydog
I dont get REDF off a stocktables.com search.
90+ RS
80+ EPS
10$ min
50$ max
Am I missing something?
Re: BITS MIKR SIM
Quote from sweetdeez:
Can anyone confirm or deny that the Dryup scan of the final universe right now yields these three: BITS MIKR SIM ?
Since we are into Journal 3 and Spyder had mentioned that we would talk about
short trading maybe we could start a discussion on the topic (entry, setups,
etc.)
For me, it is pretty straight forward and basic. I look or a stock in a
downtrend bouncing of the LTL and starting a new dominant travese. I look for
stochastics (5,2,3) to have just crossed the 50 line and having a sharp slope
down, and MACD is negative or very close the the zero line heading towards
negative territory.
I then look at the 30min chart for the normal entry criteria of LBDU by 10:30am
for DU stocks or .22 unusual volume for others. As well as Stochastics (14,1,3)
below 20 and MACD negative. I also want to see volume continue to be strong
thoughout the day or I will get out.
What is everyone else's thought on shorts? How long do you hold (I know Spyder
only holds one day), favorable setups, exit criteria, how tight are yours stops,
other ideas, etc.
Lets open it up for discussion!!!
P.S. I shorted CTRN and SIRF this morning
Quote from TimDog:
Since we are into Journal 3 and Spyder had mentioned that we would talk about short trading maybe we could start a discussion on the topic (entry, setups, etc.)
For me, it is pretty straight forward and basic. I look or a stock in a downtrend bouncing of the LTL and starting a new dominant travese. I look for stochastics (5,2,3) to have just crossed the 50 line and having a sharp slope down, and MACD is negative or very close the the zero line heading towards negative territory.
I then look at the 30min chart for the normal entry criteria of LBDU by 10:30am for DU stocks or .22 unusual volume for others. As well as Stochastics (14,1,3) below 20 and MACD negative. I also want to see volume continue to be strong thoughout the day or I will get out.
What is everyone else's thought on shorts? How long do you hold (I know Spyder only holds one day), favorable setups, exit criteria, how tight are yours stops, other ideas, etc.
Lets open it up for discussion!!!
P.S. I shorted CTRN and SIRF this morning
Quote from Pr0crast:
If you want to trade the intermediate method, all shorting is really is flipping your indicators and doing basically what you said (the exact opposite as if you were trading long). And there's certainly nothing wrong with getting out at the end of the day so as to not get caught.
What I imagine Spyder would tell you here in the "advanced" journal III though is to trade shorts (as well as longs) using the FTT method, and not bother with the "hold for one day," "lbdu," "macd," "stops," or similar rules.
Quote from TimDog:
For me, it is pretty straight forward and basic. I look or a stock in a downtrend bouncing of the LTL and starting a new dominant travese. I look for stochastics (5,2,3) to have just crossed the 50 line and having a sharp slope down, and MACD is negative or very close the the zero line heading towards negative territory.
Most stocks that have big news headlines for the day will meet your volume
criteria, I would think so.
Quote from foible:
RTL, I think you mean. Otherwise, that looks like a lot of what I'm looking for.
I've also had a lot of success looking at the unusual volume movers during the first 30 minutes of trading on the 5min chart, looking for high and sustained selling. I like to see volume hit 10% of the previous day's volume around 9:40-9:55 EST instead of looking for dryup since the biggest single-day drops don't seem to be correlated with DU.
From then, I follow the standard entry. If the stock has dropped a lot, you may wish to wait for a pullback or at least a pause on lower volume (5min chart) and then short into a the breakout. You'll miss a couple of trades this way, but you'll miss the nastier snap-backs also.
The last trade I took like this was COGO on the 18th. There was 10 minutes of heavy selling, a pause and then when it broke down, it broke hard. These don't come around very often, but once or twice a month you can catch a 10% single-day move.
FTT comes earlier than FRV. By trading FTT, it is less likely to have all our old indicators (MACDHistogram, Stochastic) aligned at the old value set at the time of FTT. Do we need to redefine a set of indicator values for our daily analysis? Thanks.
Quote from ulmer:
FTT comes earlier than FRV. By trading FTT, it is less likely to have all our old indicators (MACDHistogram, Stochastic) aligned at the old value set at the time of FTT. Do we need to redefine a set of indicator values for our daily analysis? Thanks.
Quote from rickylc:
a little clarification on the previous post.
ININ bounced off the IT RTL which I had drawn @ 18.69, the low price so far for the day however is 18.61
I'm probably early on this, but if it continues to behave I'm looking at a target price around $23.00
I added to the ININ position yesterday @ 19.05 on the formation of the pt.3
looking good so far
23 Jan 2007
My DU stocks on today's watchlist were:
ACOR BITS DTLK GIGM HWCC MIKR NSTR NVEC OMRI REDF SIM
Note that I didn't have time to do the final culling via the fundamental factors
so some of the above may not be 100% correct, and HWCC is there simply because
it was mentioned here by Spydertrader. On a side note, I find maintaining some
that don't make the cut is actually a good thing as I am able to observe their
intra-day behaviour as well. It leads to a nice comparision and contrast study.
In any event, viewing a daily, 30 min and 5 min made the choice clear for which
one to focus on today. GIGM. Although HWCC and SIM were close seconds.
All three of those could have been day traded at substantial profit today, and I
think GIGM could be held for the standard X number of days of the beginner
method. In any event, I focused all of my efforts on GIGM. Had I been able to
watch all day I probably would have exited half at the test of yesterday's high
for the first time, i.e. somewhere near 10.80.
Tucson Meetings
I expect to post an update on the Tucson Meetings, as well as the Video Files
to be made available in the near future.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Congrats on your trade
1 question on trade management . You initially bought Inin at $18.8 on 19/1/07.
On 20/1/07, it actually crossed below your entry price.
Did you take profits before price went below your entry price, partial profits
or do you not adjust your stop loss (even if stop loss is below the entry
price). Always interested in how to manage a position. Thanks.
Quote from rickylc:
I added to the ININ position yesterday @ 19.05 on the formation of the pt.3
looking good so far
Quote from billp:
Congrats on your trade
1 question on trade management . You initially bought Inin at $18.8 on 19/1/07. On 20/1/07, it actually crossed below your entry price.
Did you take profits before price went below your entry price, partial profits or do you not adjust your stop loss (even if stop loss is below the entry price). Always interested in how to manage a position. Thanks.
Thanks rickylc. So you usually do not take partial profits and willing to
take a loss even in nice profit and you rather close all at EOD on the same day.
Yeah, I meant Monday not Saturday.
Inin shall look nice as a long. Good luck and hope you make plenty of $
Quote from rickylc:
This trade is a bit of an experiment in trading the FTT for me using a stock I have traded several times and have relative confidence in. I have not taken profits yet.
In retrospect, the most profitable trade management would have been to close the position EOD Friday (my usual mode of operation) and re-enter yesterday when price approached my original entry. I'm assuming that is the date you are referring to as 20/1/07 was Saturday.
I added on Monday because it appeared to be the formation of a pt.3. The little selloff yesterday morning caught me a bit by surprise, but the price turned before my original signal point of 18.69 and showed rapid improvement thereafter. As I had already established a full position in this stock, I didn't add any additional shares on the morning dip.
Close yesterday was relatively strong so I'm looking for continued price and volume improvement today.
Quote from billp:
Thanks rickylc. So you usually do not take partial profits and willing to take a loss even in nice profit and you rather close all at EOD on the same day.
Yeah, I meant Monday not Saturday.
Inin shall look nice as a long. Good luck and hope you make plenty of $
Anyone else using the wealth-lab website (not WLD) notice that it hasnt updated with Jan. 23 info, even at 9am wednesday morning right now.
Addition to Universe
SNCR looks like a nice add to the Universe. Passes Hershey parameters and has rank.
Quote from TimDog:
Anyone else using the wealth-lab website (not WLD) notice that it hasnt updated with Jan. 23 info, even at 9am wednesday morning right now.
Thanks
Quote from rickylc:
No, not at all, I will take partial profits and do so regularly, this was a smallish position to begin with, so taking partial profits wouldn't have made a big difference. As I mentioned in my earlier post, this trade is a bit of an experiment so I started out with a small position.
In my normal trading, if I should make 5% on a trade in one day, I will close the position @ EOD and see if it is worth re-entering in the morning. protecting profits already in the bag has been the name of the game for me up until now.
This is a different approach I'm trying, trading off the FTT and building a position earlier, adding as the trade develops over several days. We'll see how it works.
Thanks for your good wishes
rick
The ININ saga continues, this has to be one of the longer trades I've run
But the planets may finally be lining up for ININ to take off. It is in Dry-up
for the first time since December and a major broker started coverage this
evening at a buy (Susquehanna). I usually could care less what analysts think,
but if it gives ININ a pop out of DU, I'll be happy!
rick
Wednesday 24 Jan 2007 was like shooting fish in a barrel. I had held GIGM and
ANGN from the day before, i.e. Tuesday. GIGM was purchased following the rules.
ANGN, while a member of my universe, was not on the watchlist yesterday,
although I keep an eye on every universe member. I purchased ANGN as a result of
watching price/volume activity on my entire universe. ANGN was up there on top
so I investigated it. The daily is a thing of beauty. While the risk was larger
than should be taken as it had already run up for a couple of days, when I saw
it breaking highs within 30 minutes yesterday, I couldn't resist and decided to
get in.
More to write later on today's purchases. The two above have completely
surpassed any expectations I may have had for the week for my portfolio's
performance.
Quote from rickylc:
The ININ saga continues, this has to be one of the longer trades I've run
But the planets may finally be lining up for ININ to take off. It is in Dry-up for the first time since December and a major broker started coverage this evening at a buy (Susquehanna). I usually could care less what analysts think, but if it gives ININ a pop out of DU, I'll be happy!
rick
Quote from johnpinochet:
ANGN, while a member of my universe, was not on the watchlist yesterday, although I keep an eye on every universe member. I purchased ANGN as a result of watching price/volume activity on my entire universe. ANGN was up there on top so I investigated it. The daily is a thing of beauty. While the risk was larger than should be taken as it had already run up for a couple of days, when I saw it breaking highs within 30 minutes yesterday, I couldn't resist and decided to get in.
Quote from PointOne:
Thanks for bringing ANGN to my attention. Its average volume is less than 200K and has a low float but other than that it is a star performer:
One to watch for sure.
Food for thought on whether holding for the standard 1 - 2 weeks is better or
getting in and out on a daily (intra-day) basis as some are doing.
Long positions in 'Current' sorted by Bought in descending order
Symbol Last Change %Change Volume Position Bought Value Net %Change %Total
Delete?
BITS 9.70 0.38 4.07% 218,414. 300 01/11/2007 2,910.00 323.00 12.48% 14.00 Trade
DXPE 31.55 -0.07 -0.22% 67,257. 100 01/11/2007 3,156.00 -85.00 -2.62% 15.18
Trade
HWCC 23.91 0.70 3.01% 647,531. 100 01/10/2007 2,391.00 336.00 16.35% 11.50 Trade
SWFT 30.48 0.04 0.16% 1,917,218. 200 01/10/2007 6,096.00 631.00 11.54% 29.33
Trade
CTRN 40.50 -0.88 -2.15% 92,208. 100 01/10/2007 4,050.00 104.99 2.66% 19.49 Trade
GIGM 10.88 -0.23 -2.07% 826,999. 200 01/10/2007 2,176.00 291.00 15.43% 10.47
Trade
Total 20,779.00 1,600.99 8.34%
The above 8.34% was achieved with little to minimum effort other than the hour
required on the trade day.
Congrats on your success.
Usually how much (% or $ wise) will you let a position go against you? Also, do
you move your stop loss up to protect profits or move your stop loss to break
even or stop loss will always remain at the original stop loss which is below
your entry price?
Also, when will you decide to take profits. Is it based on support/resistance
levels or do you try to shoot for 10% profit. Thanks.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Food for thought on whether holding for the standard 1 - 2 weeks is better or getting in and out on a daily (intra-day) basis as some are doing.
Long positions in 'Current' sorted by Bought in descending order
Symbol Last Change %Change Volume Position Bought Value Net %Change %Total Delete?
BITS 9.70 0.38 4.07% 218,414. 300 01/11/2007 2,910.00 323.00 12.48% 14.00 Trade
DXPE 31.55 -0.07 -0.22% 67,257. 100 01/11/2007 3,156.00 -85.00 -2.62% 15.18 Trade
HWCC 23.91 0.70 3.01% 647,531. 100 01/10/2007 2,391.00 336.00 16.35% 11.50 Trade
SWFT 30.48 0.04 0.16% 1,917,218. 200 01/10/2007 6,096.00 631.00 11.54% 29.33 Trade
CTRN 40.50 -0.88 -2.15% 92,208. 100 01/10/2007 4,050.00 104.99 2.66% 19.49 Trade
GIGM 10.88 -0.23 -2.07% 826,999. 200 01/10/2007 2,176.00 291.00 15.43% 10.47 Trade
Total 20,779.00 1,600.99 8.34%
The above 8.34% was achieved with little to minimum effort other than the hour required on the trade day.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Food for thought on whether holding for the standard 1 - 2 weeks is better or getting in and out on a daily (intra-day) basis as some are doing.
gooch and billip,
Please let me clarify, I was attempting to ask a "food for thought" question
rather than stating that those were trades I was still holding. I exited all of
those trades at a much smaller profit than indicated there on that table. I left
the table alone out of curiosity to see where it would be in 2 weeks time, i.e.
the end of this week.
So, thank you for the best wishes, but to be honest I can only "wish" I were so
wise, hence the table and the discussion.
I'm currently in:
ANGN BITS GIGM HWCC SIM
On 23 Jan 2007 I purchased:
ANGN 17.42
GIGM 10.51
BITS 9.10
Sold BITS at 9.00 on 23 Jan 2007 at 9.00
I re-entered BITS yesterday, 25 Jan 2007 at a higher price. The selling and
re-entry of BITS led me to visit the table.
The point I was trying to make was that it might be better to consider a hold
over days versus a hold over an hour or two, especially in the very beginning of
this method.
I know in a previous post I said something about not misleading a "newbie". I
don't want to misrepresent myself as being an expert in this. I've lurked and
studied this method for roughly the last 6 months, and this year in January, I
decided to commit to an account exclusively for this.
As far as when to take a loss and when to take a profit, I really don't feel
qualified to answer. I've been holding for no more than 1 - 3 days, basing my
decision to sell or stay in on the 30 min. And yes, on more than one occasion a
winner has come back to my entry and become a loser over 1 or 2 trading days.
I was wondering how many people are using the .22 level of unusual volume to
enter into a trade, and if they are always using the .22 level. The reason I am
asking is bc to me the .22 level might not work in all cases. For example, based
on the unusual volume sheet .22 is really only to be used for a stock that is in
DU (also based on the UV sheet). So what kind of unusual volume trigger would
you use for a stock that is not in DU.
For example, there is a stock with a perfect Bruno R setup on the daily,
everything looks great for the trend to continue but the volume the previous day
was 150%. Therefore entering at .22% UV by 11:00am the next morning wouldnt even
bring this stock close to the volume that it has been doing. I know the answer
that most people are thinking is to just figure out what kind of volume is
needed to exceed the previous day based on the UV %, but is that what everyone
is doing, plus volume almost always settles down in the middle of trend to lower
levels before making a 20% run.
Anyways, just wondering if others can share their ideas on unusual volume and
how they use it with stocks that are not in DU or stocks that have shown a
significant volume increase the previous day. TIA
Quote from TimDog:
I was wondering how many people are using the .22 level of unusual volume to enter into a trade, and if they are always using the .22 level. The reason I am asking is bc to me the .22 level might not work in all cases. For example, based on the unusual volume sheet .22 is really only to be used for a stock that is in DU (also based on the UV sheet). So what kind of unusual volume trigger would you use for a stock that is not in DU.
For example, there is a stock with a perfect Bruno R setup on the daily, everything looks great for the trend to continue but the volume the previous day was 150%. Therefore entering at .22% UV by 11:00am the next morning wouldnt even bring this stock close to the volume that it has been doing. I know the answer that most people are thinking is to just figure out what kind of volume is needed to exceed the previous day based on the UV %, but is that what everyone is doing, plus volume almost always settles down in the middle of trend to lower levels before making a 20% run.
Anyways, just wondering if others can share their ideas on unusual volume and how they use it with stocks that are not in DU or stocks that have shown a significant volume increase the previous day. TIA
Timdog,
I only follow part of Spyder's method. This is mainly due to among other things
having not read every single page/forgot a lot of whatever I read (1 day I will
really read everything, hopefully before the journal ends)
and my trading platform not
having the ability to cater for Spyder's requirements.
The main part that I do follow is volume. And yes, I certainly prefer it to be
in dry up and 0.22%.
Quote from TimDog:
I was wondering how many people are using the .22 level of unusual volume to enter into a trade, and if they are always using the .22 level. The reason I am asking is bc to me the .22 level might not work in all cases. For example, based on the unusual volume sheet .22 is really only to be used for a stock that is in DU (also based on the UV sheet). So what kind of unusual volume trigger would you use for a stock that is not in DU.
For example, there is a stock with a perfect Bruno R setup on the daily, everything looks great for the trend to continue but the volume the previous day was 150%. Therefore entering at .22% UV by 11:00am the next morning wouldnt even bring this stock close to the volume that it has been doing. I know the answer that most people are thinking is to just figure out what kind of volume is needed to exceed the previous day based on the UV %, but is that what everyone is doing, plus volume almost always settles down in the middle of trend to lower levels before making a 20% run.
Anyways, just wondering if others can share their ideas on unusual volume and how they use it with stocks that are not in DU or stocks that have shown a significant volume increase the previous day. TIA
Thanks johnpinochet. Still congrats on your trades as I believe that you are
making profits on it.
The trade management is the one that I'm facing the most headache now ie when to
take profits (ie assuming I'm in a profitable trade).
As to your food for thought table :
What is on your table seems to be better than what you actually gained. However,
this may not always be the case.
I've been spending a lot of time trying to figure out how to manage a trade and
my current thoughts (may vary in the future) are :
a) Having a reasonable profit target for 50% of one's swing trade.
[Thus, if it takes a few days to reach the target price, so be it. However, I
will unlikely hold for more than a week. I will not let this portion become
negative $ unless its due to gaps or price has not move out of its wriggle room
for me to reasonably move stop loss to breakeven on this portion]
b)The other 50% is based on how market move.
[Thus, this could be taken off on the same day or a few days later or even in 2
weeks time. ]
Also, I will be willing to have many more smaller losers instead of slight
profits/breakeven trades in the hopes of gaining a few bigger winners. (this I
believe will be overall more profitable although psychology wise is harder to
accept).
Anybody care to to share? Views are welcome. Thanks
Quote from johnpinochet:
gooch and billip,
Please let me clarify, I was attempting to ask a "food for thought" question rather than stating that those were trades I was still holding. I exited all of those trades at a much smaller profit than indicated there on that table. I left the table alone out of curiosity to see where it would be in 2 weeks time, i.e. the end of this week.
So, thank you for the best wishes, but to be honest I can only "wish" I were so wise, hence the table and the discussion.
I'm currently in:
ANGN BITS GIGM HWCC SIM
On 23 Jan 2007 I purchased:
ANGN 17.42
GIGM 10.51
BITS 9.10
Sold BITS at 9.00 on 23 Jan 2007 at 9.00
I re-entered BITS yesterday, 25 Jan 2007 at a higher price. The selling and re-entry of BITS led me to visit the table.
The point I was trying to make was that it might be better to consider a hold over days versus a hold over an hour or two, especially in the very beginning of this method.
I know in a previous post I said something about not misleading a "newbie". I don't want to misrepresent myself as being an expert in this. I've lurked and studied this method for roughly the last 6 months, and this year in January, I decided to commit to an account exclusively for this.
As far as when to take a loss and when to take a profit, I really don't feel qualified to answer. I've been holding for no more than 1 - 3 days, basing my decision to sell or stay in on the 30 min. And yes, on more than one occasion a winner has come back to my entry and become a loser over 1 or 2 trading days.
What a day on Friday!
If you take a look at the 5 min chart for BITS for 26 Jan 2007, right around the
time it was testing the 9.50 lows and then going back up to 9.80, i.e. roughly
0930 CST, I got in at 9.80 to up my size to 1000 shares from 200.
That was my only trade on Friday. No sales. Still holding ANGN BITS GIGM HWCC
SIM from earlier posted purchases.
Please give me your comments.
By looking at the chart , it looks like ININ is currently in dry up. Since the
last bar lies on the intermediate channel RTL support, and vol has decreased, it
leads me to believe that black breakout vol is imminent. On Monday, I will look
for 3 things to confirm my position. The First is FRV, the second, decreased day
vol holding the RTL, a FBO on lighter vol than previous day. The most ideal
condition out of the three would of course be FRV before 11:30am est with price
improvement. If you look at the gaussian vol you can see a small black bar at
the last price point. ideally I would like to see a steady stair step of black
vol creating a B2R or B2B trend.
Hi Monkman,
I added in the red down trends to complete the picture.
Quote from gooch87:
Hi Monkman,
I added in the red down trends to complete the picture.
I plan to clean up the Final Universe tomorrow evening after I return from
the Tucson Meetings.
- Spydertrader
__________________
My Watch list
Here is my watch list for those that are interested:
Group 7
none
Group 1
OMTR - FBO(won't know for sure until tomorrow)
ININ in DU
Group 0
AXR in DU - should breakout tomorrow 5-2-3 stoh breached 50
GROW in DU
ICE in DU
Attached is my chart for AXR (the last vol bar is off, should read 175,700, and
DU vol should read in the .40s on the bottom indicator)
I am still new to the Hershey method so please correct me if i'm wrong on
anything.
- Monkman
CENT
Discussed this over the weekend in Tucson.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Deletions
CVRL CTRN ESCL GMXR OMNI RATE RBAK
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder-
Do you still have SIRF in your FU? It seems to have lost rank according to the
chartscripts, but looks to still have it if I'm just eyeballing the chart.
Thanks.
SIRF and Rank
Quote from ebulldog:
Do you still have SIRF in your FU? It seems to have lost rank according to the chartscripts, but looks to still have it if I'm just eyeballing the chart.
__________________
Right you are! With the 1/31 data it wasn't showing rank, but with the 2/1 data it does. Thanks!
Re: Final Universe Update
Hey Spyder,
Could you post your current final universe? I appreciate it.
- Huskydog
Quote from Spydertrader:
Final Universe Deletions
CVRL CTRN ESCL GMXR OMNI RATE RBAK
- Spydertrader
What was your total net profit for 2006 using the strategy in this journal?
Thanks.
The Return of Trend Fader
Quote from Trend Fader:
What was your total net profit for 2006 using the strategy in this journal?
__________________
Re: Re: Final Universe Update
Quote from Huskydog:
Could you post your current final universe? I appreciate it.
__________________
Universe
Spyder thanks for the post. I also have UCTT and GMKT.
Re: Universe
Quote from wherchat:
Spyder thanks for the post. I also have UCTT and GMKT.
__________________
MIKR
Requested Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi Spyder,
Here is a short trade I did last week. Just a little progress report for you to
enjoy.
Gooch87
Gooch87's SIRF Short
Quote from gooch87:
Here is a short trade I did last week. Just a little progress report for you to enjoy.
__________________
earning date of Final Universe stocks
earning date of Final Universe stocks
Symbol Earning Date Days to Earning
KNOT 2/8 5
OMRI NONE NONE
HWCC NONE NONE
SNCR 2/6 3
ININ 2/5 2
SYX NONE NONE
SIM NONE NONE
LQDT 2/7 4
PCCC NONE NONE
XING NONE NONE
REDF 2/8 5
GIGM NONE NONE
DTLK 2/7 4
DXPE NONE NONE
FTEK 3/9 34
IAAC 2/13 10
NVEC NONE NONE
MIKR NONE NONE
GROW NONE NONE
STEC 3/7 32
BITS NONE NONE
COGO 2/8 5
ALY 3/6 31
SIRF 2/7 4
GRRF NONE NONE
Ulmer, your earnings date for ININ is incorrect, they released a statement
Friday afternoon saying earnings would be reported on Monday Feb 12th at 4:00.
here's an excerpt:
02/02/2007 13:51
Interactive Intelligence Inc. (Nasdaq: ININ), a global developer of business
communications software, will issue its fourth quarter and year-end operating
results for the period ended Dec. 31, 2006 on Monday, Feb. 12, at 4 p.m. Eastern
time (EST).
Interactive Intelligence will host a conference call Feb. 12 at 4:30 p.m. EST,
featuring the company's president and chief executive officer, Dr. Donald E.
Brown, and its chief financial officer, Stephen R. Head. There will be a live
Q&A session following opening remarks.
My data are downloaded from ClearStation. I just wanted save everyone's time, and remind everyone about ER dates. Please confirm the accuracy with other sources. Thanks for the correction.
Gausian?
Mornin guys!
Where is a good starting point to read about this topic? (Gaussian)
Also, is there an advantage btw taking an LBDU trade vs a DU trade? I noticed
(unless I was wrong) that DTLK didnt DU prior (i dont think it LBDU'd as well)
prior to its recent BO...hence...
My PC got hit by a virus and i pretty much lost everything! I'm starting from
scratch!
JP..
I think you asked about the HWCC trade I got in but got stopped out. It was
taken because at that time, it appeared to break out of the channel I drew.
Colts? Bears? Have a great Superbowl sunday.
I bought MIKR on friday as it DU'd. As always, Im thankful for the reply....now
im back bookmarking articles!
Re: Gausian?
Hello virgintrader,
Quote from virgintrader:
is there an advantage btw taking an LBDU trade vs a DU trade? I noticed (unless I was wrong) that DTLK didnt DU prior (i dont think it LBDU'd as well) prior to its recent BO...
Colts? Bears?
Quote from ulmer:
My data are downloaded from ClearStation. I just wanted save everyone's time, and remind everyone about ER dates. Please confirm the accuracy with other sources. Thanks for the correction.
Anyone have GROW today? Tried to get in as it exploded up, but I didn't want
to chase it based on past experience.
Bought OMTR today and looking to buy IAAC ININ DIVX.
DIVX is an outside the box play. It makes the StockTables cut but not the
official universe cut. Check out the chart.
Bought GROW at 45.81 on the 0920 CST dip to 45.70.
In with GROW at 46.66. DU'd
Gotta go work now
Quote from johnpinochet:
Anyone have GROW today? Tried to get in as it exploded up, but I didn't want to chase it based on past experience.
Bought OMTR today and looking to buy IAAC ININ DIVX.
DIVX is an outside the box play. It makes the StockTables cut but not the official universe cut. Check out the chart.
Grow GROW, Grow!
What a day today. Perhaps a turnaround in the emerging markets is afoot? As I've
posted previously, GROW is an excellent proxy for the emerging markets as
managing funds that invest there is the bulk of their business. I've been
waiting patiently to buy this one. My only regret is taking the 30 minute signal
vs the 5 minute. It has a habit of turning around and reversing so I was extra
cautious.
A 4.80 move in GROW today! I've been buying decent size lots in all of my
stocks, except for this one. Only 100 shares purchased.
Stopped out of ININ. Lookng more like FBO than a BO.......who knows
What I did today:
Bought:
OMTR 16.21
GROW 45.81
DIVX 22.77
Still holding all of the above.
Closing prices today:
OMTR 16.30
GROW 49.20
DIVX 24.01
Up 2.67% today based on unequal investment amounts above, whereas equal dollar
amounts and I would be up roughly 4.5%.
Without a doubt this is my best single day ever based on this method. Thanks to
Spydertrader, Jack as well as mischief and many others who have posted here.
keep in mind on GROW that they report earnings on Thursday afternoon with a
conference call on Friday morning.
I hope the action in GROW is indicative of a rally in emerging markets, but it
could just as easily be buying ahead of earnings.
I took partial profits in ININ today @ 20.95 for an aprox 10% gain (18.95 basis,
i had several adds @ 19.05)
it is a good gain, but i think the time/return ration has been too great. I am
still holding shares and will add again if it shows strength in the morning.
The stock that has amazed me over the last 8 days is SYX, I have made several
profitable day trades in this stock over the last week, I thought it was done,
but it took off like a rocket today, unfortunately becuase I couldn't believe my
eyes, I missed the action today.
CENT
Updating a chart from during the Tucson Meeting - one week ago.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from rickylc:
keep in mind on GROW that they report earnings on Thursday afternoon with a conference call on Friday morning.
I hope the action in GROW is indicative of a rally in emerging markets, but it could just as easily be buying ahead of earnings.
I took partial profits in ININ today @ 20.95 for an aprox 10% gain (18.95 basis, i had several adds @ 19.05)
it is a good gain, but i think the time/return ration has been too great. I am still holding shares and will add again if it shows strength in the morning.
The stock that has amazed me over the last 8 days is SYX, I have made several profitable day trades in this stock over the last week, I thought it was done, but it took off like a rocket today, unfortunately becuase I couldn't believe my eyes, I missed the action today.
Final Universe Update
Final Universe News
- Spydertrader
__________________
Any rhyme or reason to GROW? I can't believe I only have 100 shares. In any
event, none of the stocks I have purchased this year following this method have
done what GROW has done in less than 24 hours.
Per yesterday's post, I bought 100 shares at 45.81. Right this second it is
trading at 51.59. Unfortunately, looking at the chart it has gone straight up in
a very short amount of time. I think 15% in less than 24 hours on a stock that
really has no news is a warning sign to take profits.
CENT Follow Up
CENT Splits in an odd sorta' way and stock price still rises.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from johnpinochet:
Any rhyme or reason to GROW?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nice to see GROW continues to climb for you - currently +$2.79 today. What's that? Seven or Eight bucks a share gain for you?
Nicely done.
- Spydertrader
Dry Up Stocks
For those of you still watching Dry Up Stocks, here are mine ...
FTEK HWCC NVEC OMRI SIM
- Spydertrader
__________________
For DU, I'm watching FTEK and SIM. I have the above mentioned by Spydertrader
as well as a couple of others.
SIM looks like it will pop.
For all stocks in my tenured list, I've been wanting to get back in to GIGM. If
you look at their product, and where they do business, you'll realize that the
market potential is unlimited.
I bought at 12.14 this AM. I wish I had been paying more attention. The low
today was around 11.80. So far we've hit a high of 12.30 or so.
Quote from johnpinochet:
For DU, I'm watching FTEK and SIM. I have the above mentioned by Spydertrader as well as a couple of others.
SIM looks like it will pop.
SIm Trade
Quote from johnpinochet:
When I wrote the above SIM's high was 14.10. The very next bar it gapped up to a high of 14.35.
__________________
Hi guys,
I have been lurking here and absorbing up the wealth of knowledge for quite some
time.
I have finally finished both journals, and will most likely begin trading pretty
soon.
However, i was wonder if there are any Esignal users here? I was wondering if
Esignal is able to do the culling of stocks like Spyder does with his
Qcharts.... culling a stock's volume, float, etc
Also, i was wondering if anyone could show me the most current wealthlab scripts
that everyone uses for finding dryup, rank, etc
I would really appreciate it if someone could show me what they use for each of
the step for constructing/maintaining/ a universe.
Thanks in advance.
-----
i understand the system including the intermediate method, but i think i will
start with the beginner method by sticking with the dryup -> frv -> prv system
first... then implement the channels, burno, rockets, and finally ftt....
does anyone use yahoo or msn chat? maybe some of us newbies can chat in the
evenings when we check our universe and look for potential candidates for the
next day? anyone? gooch? spyder?
ok... i have officially signed up for qcharts.
anyone got a screenshot of their layout for qchart? i need some inspirations.
QChart Screen
Here you go.
CBEY
__________________
Quote from chiefraven:
Also, i was wondering if anyone could show me the most current wealthlab scripts that everyone uses for finding dryup, rank, etc
__________________
All the signs lined up for SIM just before 11:00 however my channels showed
it at the top of the trend line which kept me out of it. My channels are a bit
different than what you posted Spyder, not sure if I did it wrong or not but
this time it saved me from making a bad trade.
Question:
Was IVAC in the universe at one time, or am I confusing it with IAAC?
Thoughts:
The more I study, learn and implement the method taught here, the more I realize
it pays to keep an eye on the universe stocks that you traded in the past as
well as your tenured stocks.
I would have completely ignored GIGM strictly following the rules when I first
started in January. Due to an alert system I have on every tenured, universe,
and daily watch list stock, I was able to get into GIGM at my excellent entry
posted previously just before the pop.
RE: chart examples that are keeping some out of certain trades. I don't have an
easy answer. On the one hand, looking at the daily and the 30 min has saved me
from making a trade, but a strict observation of the channels might have kept me
out of a trade as well. Personally, I would give more importance to price and
volume for my morning entries, and then manage the trade via channels and S/R
after the entry. Just an observation.
Another observation on charts:
I thought some more about this issue of chart examples that prevent trades, and
decided I might have something that can be adopted and modified by anyone.
The following assumes you have followed all of the steps outlined and discussed
in great detail by Spydertrader. After doing all of that and having your DU
stocks for the day, do the following.
First, look at the daily and 30 min utilizing whichever indicators you like.
Write down every stock that looks promising to you for a buy today if all you
had to go on was activity as of yesterday's close.
Second, utilizing the wealth-lab.com chartscripts detailed here, look at the
chart generated, in particular visually inspecting for the MACD setup
Spydertrader discussed earlier regarding stocks that are about to pop to the
upside. Make a note of every stock that looks promising.
Third, combine the list you have created in steps one and two, and setup alerts
for each of them.
Fourth, open up a 5 min and a 30 min chart with the settings detailed by
Spydertrader, and watch each stock waiting for price and volume to start
revealing the story.
Fifth, by this time, you've picked and are focused only on the creme de la
creme. My personal opinion is that you could buy equal amounts of this list and
call it a day, waiting to make exit decisions the next day or even several days
later. However, that is not the strict method, so simply wait for the volume and
price triggers discussed in great detail here and make your buys.
Hopefully the above has been helpful. My personal experience is that as long as
the wealth-lab chart shows that the stock is inside or beginning that MACD
signal Spydertrader mentioned, and as long as the 30 min and the 5 minute are
bullish, I can buy within the first hour of trading and walk away, making exit
decision the next day.
Attached you'll find an access database I've created to help with culling
symbols based on fundamental parameters. Given a list of symbols and the
fundamental data listed in the users .doc file, it eliminates any stocks which
don't meet the culling criteria (also in the users .doc file.)
It's designed to work with QCharts, but if you have another source which will
permit you to create .csv files with the necessary fundamental data then it
should work fine.
READ AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS CAREFULLY!
This program is provided "as is" - there is no technical support whatsoever with
it. None. Zilch. Nada.
If you want to make changes to the underlying VBA code or SQL statements, feel
free.
-Au
Quote from johnpinochet:
Was IVAC in the universe at one time, or am I confusing it with IAAC?
__________________
Here is an evaluation of FTEK. I am anticipating a short day trade, but we
will have to see what the market says.
the video list at www.traderuniverse.info/hersheyvideos.htm lists Jan 25 avi file but I found only charting 101 avi file after log in, where are the rest? anybody know?
Quote from nkhoi:
the video list at www.traderuniverse.info/hersheyvideos.htm lists Jan 25 avi file but I found only charting 101 avi file after log in, where are the rest? anybody know?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from gooch87:
Here is an evaluation of FTEK. I am anticipating a short day trade, but we will have to see what the market says.
Quote from bundlemaker:
You didn't go far enough. Double click on the "Meeting Videos" folder. They're all there
Attached is a chart of RMKR. It looks like a bull flag. Right now its holding
the RTL on decreased vol. What we would like to see is an increase in vol to
tell us which way this stock will run. Will it be a FTT, FBO, or BO? I will be
buying on point 3 on heavy vol. If it traverses through the RTL instead of going
up, then i'll look for a short instead. BTW the last vol bar is off. Having
minor issues with IQFeed/Amibroker not sure which is causing the problem.
- Monkman
Re: RMKR
Quote from Monkman:
Attached is a chart of RMKR.
__________________
Spyder,
What was your reasoning for at least 25% insider and institutional ownership? I
know its buried somewhere in these forums, but I forget where it is, and other
people might want a refresher too : )
- Monkman
Previously (Journal Two), I added the 25% Insider Owned parameter to the
culling Process, but not the 25% Institutional Owned Culling Parameter. At the
time, my testing did not show a statistically significant advantage to adding
the 25% Institutional Owned parameter, In fact sometimes it tested out worse.
However, this limited testing focused only on Final Universe Stocks. Adding both
of these two additional parameters to the culling process insures using "High
Quality Equities" for any 'Outside the Box' trades one might make.
Hope that helps clarify things for you.
- Spydertrader
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=34
Why 25%?
Quote from Monkman:
What was your reasoning for at least 25% insider and institutional ownership?
__________________
will someone be so kind as to post their list of dry-up stocks that have ranked for tomorrow? as well as maybe some of the stocks they will be looking at for tomorrow?
CBEY
Still Truckin'
- Spydertrader
__________________
hey spyder, could you explain this cbey chart a little to me?
i know the orange down channels were the long term channels that started from
december.
but could you explain the red and green channels you have? i understand the red
channels created a down trend started from the biggest red bar (point 1) to the
long shadow of point 2, then to the first green bar (point 3) that touches the
top of the red downward channels.... and just today the second green bar formed
which broke out of the red downward channels (creating a temporary breakout??!?)
can you tell me the date and price of your entry price perhaps? and when do you
plan on exiting? when it touches the longterm orange down channels and if it
doesn't seem it's going to break the long term down trend?
by the way, LQDT moved pretty well today.. it's just part of the final universe,
but i haven't checked to see if it's within the method of the system yet.
also, i was wondering if you could explain why you took the CBEY trade... i
think hearing the explaination behind your thinking will really accelerate the
learning process
cheers
Chief
Quote from chiefraven:
can you tell me the date and price of your entry price perhaps? and when do you plan on exiting? when it touches the longterm orange down channels and if it doesn't seem it's going to break the long term down trend? also, i was wondering if you could explain why you took the CBEY trade... i think hearing the explaination behind your thinking will really accelerate the learning process
__________________
Dry Up Stocks
Quote from chiefraven:
will someone be so kind as to post their list of dry-up stocks that have ranked for tomorrow? as well as maybe some of the stocks they will be looking at for tomorrow?
__________________
thank you so much for the quick response spy. I will stick with the beginner
method first, then bruno, rockets, and finally ftt.
one question though. i'm running the filter at stocktables.com but it seems like
all the stocks i'm getting are from 2/7.... do you know when they update their
data so i can get the most current data which includes today's stuff? i think i
might have read in journal 1 that they update it late at night at around 8 or
9pm or something but i just want to be sure.
in addition, just out of curiosity, the final universe you provided me today in
et chat.. is that the universe you got from stocktables.com? or from doing the
search on the whole market? just thought of this right now, since i'm only using
the beginner method, i was wondering if i should only use a universe that's
created from stocktables.com ..
finally, where has all the people gone to? have they all migrated to the futures
thread?
hehe
THREE Questions
Quote from chiefraven:
one question though.
__________________
Re: Dry Up Stocks
Quote from Spydertrader:
Dry Up Stocks
BITS DXPE FTEK HWCC ININ NVEC OMRI
I haven't looked at 'other' stocks to watch yet today.
- Spydertrader
hey spyder, i'm sure this has probably been answered at one point, but i just
ran Hershey Equities Chartscript version 4.2 on the hotlist i created, but all i
got was a list: today's alerts: some say buy... bruno r buy and some says sell
....time based.
what do these mean, and how come it doesn't show each of the stock and its rank,
dryup volume and stuff?
thanks in advance
STEC chart
Watch for a possible FTT to form
Quote from chiefraven:
hey spyder, i'm sure this has probably been answered at one point, but i just ran Hershey Equities Chartscript version 4.2 on the hotlist i created, but all i got was a list: today's alerts: some say buy... bruno r buy and some says sell ....time based.
what do these mean, and how come it doesn't show each of the stock and its rank, dryup volume and stuff?
thanks in advance
so i need to run the script 95 times for each of the stock symbol? i thought the purpose of this was so that we could quickly filter out the stocks with rank + dryup and t hose without?
Quote from chiefraven:
so i need to run the script 95 times for each of the stock symbol? i thought the purpose of this was so that we could quickly filter out the stocks with rank + dryup and t hose without?
Re: STEC chart
Quote from bi9foot:
Watch for a possible FTT to form
I like how GRRF is forming up.
As I see it, there was a FTT yesterday (02-07-07) of the IT down channel. This
happened to occur right at the RTL of the LT up channel.
Today started off a "tape" in the up direction, however it hit some resistance
right at the RTL of the down channel.
I'm anticipating tomorrow to break out of the down channel, and continue in a
long direction. This means we should see price improvement and volume
improvement over that of today and perhaps yesterday.
If price bounces off of the RTL (again) and goes below the right side of the two
day tape, then I'll be comfortable calling it a FBO and exiting.
-Au
Quote from gooch87:
Here is an evaluation of FTEK. I am anticipating a short day trade, but we will have to see what the market says.
yeah I like the possible ftt for STEC. thanks man. i'll be sure to keep an
eye on it in the near future.
i will be paper trading the original method tomorrow. wish me luck guys.
I have these in dryup:
BITS DXPE FTEK HWCC NVEC OMRI UCTT ININ
Will be watching these:
some, because of their positions at the bottom of the uptrend channel, some
because they are NOT in a downtrend and the fact that they seem to be in a
sideway action for a few days and hopefully ready for a break out of its sideway
action)
BITS NVEC HWCC - and maybe ININ (i like it because it is kind of in a sideway
action, but it's still near the top of the down channel, eventhough the channel
is only "slightly down"
=====================
Quote from Aurum:
I like how GRRF is forming up.
As I see it, there was a FTT yesterday (02-07-07) of the IT down channel. This happened to occur right at the RTL of the LT up channel.
If price bounces off of the RTL (again) and goes below the right side of the two day tape, then I'll be comfortable calling it a FBO and exiting.
-Au
Quote from buffalow:
Aurum,
I'm having trouble figuring out what the RTL of LT up channel is based on. Are you calling yesterday a point 3? Because I don't see a LT point 3 that's already been formed. Just wondering and looking for the BO in any case.
-Buffalo
Quote from Aurum:
The green up channel and volatility expansions come from the weekly fractal. Pt's 1 and 3 were based (sloppily it appears) off 8-27-06 and 9-17-06. I may have subconsciously made the lines to "fit" a bit better with the FTT I have marked on the daily fractal.
HTH
-Au
Has anyone experimented with buying tomorrow's DU stocks just prior to the
close today?
I ask because it seems more often then not, the DU stocks have a 30 - 50 cent
run and then retrace all of their initial gain.
DXPE FTEK NVEC are examples today.
By the way, did anyone catch TRT?
Apparently it doesn't quite meet the full criteria (it was on my DU list
though). Would have been a nice run if you could have gotten in yesterday.
Day #1 Paper Trading (Beginner Method)
Dryupstocks: BITS DXPE FTEK HWCC NVEC OMRI UCTT ININ
Ones that i monitored today:
BITS NVEC ININ HWCC
Well none of the stocks i monitored today reached its dryup lowband volume by
10:30 nor 11:00. So as the result, no trades were made.
However, I did pull up a few stocks that were positive for the day today and
looked them over for patterns. These being: XING and LQDT.
From LQDT it was evident that the theory on price, volume definetly works. In
addition, the parameter of the 80+ mark on the slow stochastic 14,1,3...
provides the key for spotting trend changes.... not to mention the fast
stochastic 5.2.3, which like its name, provides an alert on the possible trend
changes to its slower cousin the slow stochastic.
Volume on LQDT spiked up real high today at the open with positive MACD,
stochastic around the 90 levels, until it finally dropped below 80, indicating a
trend reversal and with the decreasing volume causes the stock to reach its High
of day of 24.15... and drops all the way back down to 22.49.
If i was holding this stock this morning, all of these indicators and patterns
suggest a hold, untill the stochastic dips below 80, which would've alerted me
to get ouf of the trade, saving me some $$$ and helped lock in some profits.
All in all, it was a productive day for me as i've seen the hershey PV theory
proven in real time. I'm looking forward for next week.
=====
by the way, when you guys traded the beginner method, did you find it more
profitable trading with dryup lowband by 10.30 then average du by 11.30... or
only dryup lowband by 11 as described in the original method?
also, when you have a list of dryupstocks, do you only take trades when the
price is near t he bottom of an uptrend channel? 'cuz so far i have been staying
away from the ones with price at or near the top channels and daily graphs
currently consisting of a downward c hannel.
CBEY
From the Jokari Window ...
"Decreasing Volume with Increasing Price, we expect the trend to change.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Still holding onto GRRF.
When price did bounce off the RTL and dropped out of the tape, I was prepared to
exit. I noticed a few things which caused me to change my mind and wait a bit.
1. On the T&S there were several large buy orders which went through at a price
above the current market price. 2 x orders of 5k, and several orders of 2+k.
2. A pt3 of the taping channel has possibly formed today.
3. Near EOD there were a number of large entries for bid/best bid on L2.
4. Volume is still in the dryup range - we haven't hit FRV yet.
So while price didn't cooperate today, I'm still seeing some signals to
"continue." We'll see what Monday brings.
my dry-up stocks for next monday:
BITS DXPE HWCC IAAC NVEC OMRI GRRF
notice your GRRF is in the mix. =D hope it works out for you. can you tell me
when and why did you get into this trade?
i'm only trading the beginner method, but the daily graph for GRRF shows that
it's been in a downtrend since beginning of janurary.
Quote from Aurum:
Still holding onto GRRF.
When price did bounce off the RTL and dropped out of the tape, I was prepared to exit. I noticed a few things which caused me to change my mind and wait a bit.
...
4. Volume is still in the dryup range - we haven't hit FRV yet.
So while price didn't cooperate today, I'm still seeing some signals to "continue." We'll see what Monday brings.
Quote from chiefraven:
notice your GRRF is in the mix. =D hope it works out for you. can you tell me when and why did you get into this trade?
i'm only trading the beginner method, but the daily graph for GRRF shows that it's been in a downtrend since beginning of janurary.
Quote from PointOne:
What are your exit rules?
(I ask because it seems like the trade is not working out but you are hoping it may yet.)
hey could you draw the FTT you're talking about as well as the RTL of the long term channel you were talking about?
Quote from Aurum:
BTW, Gooch pointed out that this looks like a cup and handle forming...
Good trading to you
-Au
I am sitting here on another beautiful day in Buenos Aires reading my way
through
"Spydertrader's JH journal" as compiled by PrOcrast.
My congrats to all you guys, it is a great piece of work and it is always
interesting to read of fellow "volume travelers"
By and large I follow the predominant channels and watch carefully as they
impact against horizontal zones.
My TP's (tipping points) are your FTT points and my vol is split into ask/bid
which I regard as muy importante.
Once again, muchas gracias and I look forward to the next edition.
SYX short set up?
Don't know if anyone is looking at this. Comments? Sorry for the crude annotations!
Re: SYX short set up?
Quote from virgintrader:
Don't know if anyone is looking at this. Comments? Sorry for the crude annotations!
i'm a beginner, so what i think might not be the best thing to do.
it does seem like it has ran up a bit and reached a fbo, with volume decreasing,
.....
but i'm just starting to learn about bruno r, and rocket setups. i was wondering
if anyone could go over some setups of these 2 type of trades that you are
considering from your final universe?
i do know the guideline for both methods, but after checking the daily chart for
both bruno and rockets, i've seem to come up with a lot of candidates, which
brought me to the question on SYX. From the daily chart, it seems like it
already had a good run up in price, and volume is decreasing a bit, But i'm
reading jack's bruno r and rocket post from that link you guys posted in Journal
2, but all it said basically was to look for the fast stochastic to move beyond
80, come back down to around 80 and stay there, entwined. But, what the post
didn't mention was, how much of this entwining do you want? for example, for
syx, it has been entwining for a long time, so even though this is what we need
for the rocket trade, obviously this has been in this stage for too long and
will most likely be going down due to the decrease in volume, as well as the
runup that it just had?
Can someone please post some examples of some of these bruno, rocket candidates
from their final universe that they are considering so i can get a good idea of
what to look for, 'cuz i think eventhough i get the concept, there's still the
little things that i'm missing... like how much entwining we want... if it's
been entwining for a long time, it might not be worth it? but if it's just
starting to entwining, then the runup might be a good entry because it will
continue its run up, since 80+ on stoch indicates a hold.
thanks in advance.
Re: SYX short set up?
Quote from virgintrader:
Don't know if anyone is looking at this. Comments? Sorry for the crude annotations!
__________________
Hi folks
Just posting my lists for comparison and comments:
Final Universe:
ALY BITS COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MIKR NVEC OMRI
PCCC REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX
XING
This is from Spyder's list back on 02/02. By the way does anyone have UCTT in
their final universe?
Hot List (after culling for rank, price, EPS, float, volume):
FTEK GIGM GROW ININ LQDT MEH OMRI
Dry-Up Stocks for Monday 02/12):
BITS DXPE HWCC IAAC NVEC OMRI
Cheers
Quote from gooch87:
Hi Aurum,
I checked "The Successful Investor" by William J. O'Neil to compare a good Cup with handle with a bad one. I think this is not a good buy based on the cup criteria. See my chart below. Of course YMMV.
gooch87
Quote from fearless9:
My TP's (tipping points) are your FTT points and my vol is split into ask/bid which I regard as muy importante.
__________________
Re: Re: SYX short set up?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Review your chart within the context of Gaussian Volume Formations, and see if things don't become somewhat clearer for you.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, you could elaborate further as to how you view volume in the context of bid / ask.
Tenga un buen fin de semana.
- Spydertrader
Now may be a good time to cover your short position in FTEK but of course
YMMV
good trading to those who shorted this one.
gooch87
Rockets and Bruno R
Quote from chiefraven:
Can someone please post some examples of some of these bruno, rocket candidates from their final universe that they are considering so i can get a good idea of what to look for, 'cuz i think eventhough i get the concept, there's still the little things that i'm missing... like how much entwining we want... if it's been entwining for a long time, it might not be worth it? but if it's just starting to entwining, then the runup might be a good entry because it will continue its run up, since 80+ on stoch indicates a hold.
__________________
Quote from gooch87:
Now may be a good time to cover your short position in FTEK but of course YMMV
good trading to those who shorted this one.
gooch87
Quote from chiefraven:
Can someone please post some examples of some of these bruno, rocket candidates from their final universe
__________________
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Update
I added RATE to my Final Universe this evening.
- Spydertrader
__________________
thanks spyder,
but if i remembered correctly, jack said he looked for stock with a fast
stochastic that drops down to the 20 mark in a hurry, but this stock you're
showing me seems to have its fast stochastic goign down gradually, starting from
the beginning of january. i remembered someone said the same thing in journal 2.
so that was what i was confused about:
how fast do we want it to drop down to the 20 mark... do we want to see a steep
sudden drop to the 20 that only took maybe 2-3 days to form on the daily chart?
or does it not even matter as long as the fast stochastic ends up at the 20 and
is gearing up, and have the blue crosses over the red line.
============
my confusing with the rockets is similar in nature. i know we are looking for
stock in the daily chart where it overshoots the 80 in stochastic, and shows an
entwining action... and jack says this is where we would enter... of course with
increase volume and price... neutral macd, etc etc... those pretty much goes
without saying..
but a stochastic that sits above 80 and entwining can look very differently and
have different outcome i'm sure..
for example some stocks might have a stochastic at 80 and entwining that look
like this:
_
_/
where stocks shoots above 80 and entwine there (but just starting to entwine as
shown by the short line on top)
but there's also these:
________
_/
where a stock's stochastic has been entwining around the 80 mark for quite some
time on the daily chart... so does this mean getting in on the rocket trade is
more safe in the first example than the second one where the line has been
entwining for a long time? since it could possibly end any day? but at the same
time, getting too early in the first example i've drawn could mean that we would
be getting in early and the short entwining action we thought was confirmed
could easily head down and turns this trade into a non-rocket trade since it
longer fits our criteria where the stock stays entwining.
anyway, would really appreciate some thoughts on this.
Rockets
Quote from chiefraven:
my confusing with the rockets is similar in nature.
__________________
i thought the inter-twining action we're looking for is in the stochastic
5,2,3? so in this case, we would get in as soon as we see just a little bit of
entwining and maybe stay in until the slow stochastic starts to dip below 80 i'm
assuming..
since stochastic 5,2,3 is the fast stochastic hence it will get more noise,
which is why using the slow stochastic to exit will be a wiser choice since we
are getting out only when the long term trend is definetly going down. correct?
if you guys see any more rockets or bruno r examples, could you please post them
up , if it's not too much trouble.
i would really appreciate it.
i know most people here have moved up to trading the FTT method, but if anyone
is still looking for bruno and rockets, will you post your list of bruno, and
rockets that you are hoping to trade for the next day? I will be doing this from
now on.... please let me know if you guys see anything i am missing or should
improve on.
G'day ya all...
Took a short trade on PCCC today. So far, so good...but tomorrow is another day!
Boy..u sure get hooked onto drawing these channels!
Questions: Am I annotating the volume bars correctly? If so, i'm thinking Volume
trend for the LAST 2 bars is up; Price trend for the last 2 bars were down; then
Price should continue to trend down.
Warmest regards...
Now, im reading Gaussians formations...call me blonde but Spydie..im trying to
figure out the B2R, etc..I'll keep on reading...
You need to back test and do IAS
Quote from chiefraven:
I will be doing this from now on.... please let me know if you guys see anything i am missing or should improve on.
Bruno R and Rockets
Quote from chiefraven:
i thought the inter-twining action we're looking for is in the stochastic 5,2,3?
Quote from chiefraven:
so in this case, we would get in as soon as we see just a little bit of entwining and maybe stay in until the slow stochastic starts to dip below 80 i'm assuming..?
Quote from chiefraven:
since stochastic 5,2,3 is the fast stochastic hence it will get more noise, which is why using the slow stochastic to exit will be a wiser choice since we are getting out only when the long term trend is definetly going down. correct?
Quote from chiefraven:
if you guys see any more rockets or bruno r examples, could you please post them up , if it's not too much trouble.
__________________
Continuation and Change
Quote from virgintrader:
Now, im reading Gaussians formations...call me blonde but Spydie..im trying to figure out the B2R, etc..I'll keep on reading...
__________________
thanks guys for all the help and support.
spyder, are you sure it's the 14,1,3 stochastic for the rockets? in jack's post
he definetly said 5,2,3 was the one to look for:
http://groups.google.com/group/misc...the+Stochastic+(5%2C3%2C3).&rnum=1#ba4175dde097af07
"To find a rocket you only have to have your quality universe (they are very
high quality stocks with EPS and RS at 80 to 90 percentiles each. The only
indicator that is significant is the Stochastic (5,3,3). What you look for
on your daily charts are the stochastic rising deliberately to the 80% line
and overshooting it and then critically damping on the line; perturbations
will cause it to look entwined on the line"
Unsure?
Quote from chiefraven:
spyder, are you sure it's the 14,1,3 stochastic for the rockets? in jack's post he definetly said 5,2,3 was the one to look for:
__________________
hey PointOne could you send me your IAS excel template or possibly post it here so i could download it? i am thinking of doing what you described to me.. i think it will be a wonderful way to learn, by doing everything by hand.
spyder,
i haven't read the stochastic link you provided me just now... i will tomorrow
when i get a chance since it's 100 or so pages. but while i was re-reading
journal 2 i came across you saying to use stoch(5,2,3) as the bruno indicator...
and now you seem to say it's the stoch 14,1,3 that we are using? i'm really a
little confused about this right now 'cuz i'm getting conflicting guidlines
unless you guys have decided to
switched from the 5,2,3 stoch to the slower 14,1,3 that i was not aware of.
Anyway, i'm sorry for all the trouble, but i would just like to get to the
bottom of this so i dont end up trading by looking at the wrong indicator
here is the link to your post where you mentioned the 5.2.3 stoch:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=319
"In an effort to assist in the transition toward improved rates of return, I
have, on occasion, added additional Hershey Set-ups (other than the DU ---> FRV
---> Peak Paradigm) to Journal Two. Trading Equities 'Rockets' falls into this
same category. Some discussion recently developed on another thread regarding
Jack's 'High Noon' Post written Friday, Jun 21 2002. (N.B. The Stochastic
Setting of (5,3,3) in the linked post is our Stochastic (5,2,3) Setting). I have
attached a current Daily Chart for GROW showing how one could use Jack's 'Bruno
R' and 'High Noon' entry and hold rules to obtain far greater profits. A review
of all Final Universe Stocks reveals several equities which may show signs of
fitting into this set up. As with all new methods, I recommend exercising
caution before jumping in with both feet."
if the above picture was the correct way of trading the rockets, then i think what i said earlier stands true. which makes a lot of sense, since we use the fast stochastic to get us in the rockets before it take off or before the price gets too far away from us... and use the slow stochastic as the hold indicator for the last minute exit.
also just found this post by you a while ago where you provided a link to one
of jack's thread about how he trades the rockets:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...490#post1046490
i think i got it now.... we want to first see the stoch 5.2.3 hit 80, but the
inter-twining part we want to see on stoch 14.1.3 for knowing whether we should
hold on to the baby or not...
found another post you wrote in j2, now i think i fully understand what to look
for for rockets and bruno now.
"According to the "High Noon" Clarification, we should see The Stochastic
(5,2,3) for TRLG head above the 80 level followed closely by (if not a day or
two later) The Stochastic (14,1,3). We would then see a 'pullback' in the
Stochastics (5,2,3) followed by an 'intertwining' if The Stochastic (14,1,3).
Once the Stochastic (14,1,3) drops below the 80 level, we would then look to
exit. Assuming the above events come to fruition, we would then find ourselves
riding another "Hershey Rocket.""
Sequences
Quote from chiefraven:
'cuz i'm getting conflicting guidelines
__________________
sorry for the confusion =D i should've stated my question more clearly.. this
whole string of question was brought to my mind when i saw that HWCC chart you
posted in which you've highlighted the inter-twining area on the stoch 14,1,3...
so i thought that was what you look for when looking for the rocket.... since
judging from that chart i did not know whether that highlighted part meant
that's where you would enter or maybe you've already gotten in the trade
earlier, and that simply meant that it's a good indication to hold the stock....
but after digging up all these info from journal2 and looking back at that hwcc
chart you posted... i'm sure the entry you would've liked to get in at would be
when the stoch 5.3.2 hit 80, and hold during the part you highlighted.
sorry for the confusion.... anyway, my first logical thinking about this was
right, and i feel much more confident of my knowledge about this system. but
looking over the journal has definetly helped.
Quote from chiefraven:
hey PointOne could you send me your IAS excel template or possibly post it here so i could download it? i am thinking of doing what you described to me.. i think it will be a wonderful way to learn, by doing everything by hand.
Re: Final Universe Update
Quote from Spydertrader:
Final Universe Update
I added RATE to my Final Universe this evening.
- Spydertrader
dry-up stocks for tomorrow (hasn't changed):
BITS DXPE HWCC IAAC NVEC OMRI GRRF
==============================
and here are my analysis of the final universe stocks: (please take a look and
let me know what you think)
Beginner Dryup method:
=====================
BITS: at the bottom of the channel
HWCC:at the bottom of the channel and has just bounced back into the channel.
also a possible bruno trade (if macd becomes neutral)
=======================
Bruno List:
HWCC
OMRI - if stochastic reaches 80 with increase volume
GROW - if macd comes back up to neutral and stoch goes up as well
UCTT
SIM
=======================
Short trades:
FTEK: increase volume with decline in price, broke down through channel, macd,
stoch all down
========================
HOLD:
LQDT: stoch still intertwining... volume creastes a smiley face as stated in
journal 2, also prices just broke outside of the left channel
SYX
========================
Finally, what do you guys think of MIKR? think it might be a good long from the
bottom? dont know exactly what news caused the hellish drop....
===========================
anyway, let me know what you guys thought of my analysis on the stocks.
you can look at the charts for these stocks as i see them in the next post:
ftek chart
grow chart
hwcc chart
lqdt chart
mikr chart
sim chart
syx chart
uctt chart
sorry for the flood of messages guys. i hate how you can't attatch multiple
files into one post. 
Quote from chiefraven:
mikr chart
FYI:
Don't stress too much about stocks losing rank and what is the official final
universe.
I keep pace with Spydertrader's final universe and I also maintain my own list
of stocks that include virtually every stock that has been a member of the
universe at one time or another (plus some others). My list, call it my Plan_B
list, has roughly 310 stocks.
Every AM prior to market open, I run the DU 3 month chartscript that everyone
else has, via wealthlab. The list of DU stocks it returns for the official final
universe and the Plan_B list is almost always the same. When there are more
stocks via the Plan_B list, I'm usually able to quickly disregard them via a
casual glance at the chart. If I can't instantly dismiss them then they go into
a secondary watchlist for the day, with the primary watchlist being the official
Hershey DU stocks for the day.
In conclusion, don't worry too much if your official universe list is missing a
stock or two, or has one or two more than it should. 99 percent of the time
you'll match everyone else after you get to DU.
Here are my DU stocks for today:
GRRF ININ NVEC
Here are my Plan_B stocks:
ALXA ANGN
Plan_B = outside the box
[ BITS ] triggered a signal for me a little before 11 o'clock. I was hoping
it would exceed dryup low band by 10:30am, but that didn't happened.. however,
since this stock is at the bottom of its uptrend channel and is also a Bruno R
setup, i felt pretty confident stretching the original plan to enter only if
dryup was reached by 10:30.
In addition, the price was in the bottom of the channel the night before. as a
matter of fact, it bounced backed into the channel after stepping outside of it
for a brief period.
By EOD today, BITS did reach FRV and volume was higher than the day before. As a
result, i held on to this trade and will closely monitor this one tomorrow.
Please see attatched chart. And please feel free to let me know of something i
may have missed.
have a question regarding HWCC today. It was my Bruno R play for the day.
Everything worked out well, stochastics are moving up, but the one thing that
worried me was that the volume for today was lower than the day before.... but
the funny thing is, this low volume actually drove the price up a decent amount.
what do you think of these type of situation, where a stock did not have higher
volume for the day compare to the day before? but price went higher?
also, i just want to make sure something about the bruno setup... i think prior
to entery we would like to see decrease in volume correct? and increase volume
after we entered the stock?
Quote from chiefraven:
Everything worked out well, stochastics are moving up, but the one thing that worried me was that the volume for today was lower than the day before.... but the funny thing is, this low volume actually drove the price up a decent amount.
what do you think of these type of situation, where a stock did not have higher volume for the day compare to the day before? but price went higher?
dryup stocks to look out for tomorrow:
=============================
GRRF HWCC IAAC NVEC OMRI XING DXPE
=============================
other setups:
ALY might be a good bruno soon in a day or two if fast stoch starts to inch up
and crosses over... also would like to see macd gets a little bit better
FTEK: still convinced it will go down judging by the stochastics, macd, decrease
in volume, and position in the channel
GROW is a possible bruno in the future if volume rises along with positive macd
and stochastics coming back up and crossing over.
ININ is a crazy short right now... gapped down a lot, so risky if one decides to
short it from here.
REDF might be a good bruno in a few days if it works out. and if it continues to
stay in the channel
SIM: i'm holding on to this one as a bruno trade i entered today... volume is
increasing and everything else is starting to look real nice. only time will
tell
SNCR should continue to ride up the channel with not much resistance juding from
the way it looks now. if anyone is already in. good job
SYX is a hold still... unlesss we see stochastic and macd edging down
========================
agree everyone?
i'm also holding my BITS as it reached FRV by end of day today. wish me luck
guys. so far so good... might get out of my HWCC trade tomorrow due to volume
today being less than the day before =\
will see how tomorrow opens for HWCC before i decide my action.
Does anyone want to exchange msn or yahoo screen names? I think it would be a
beneficial way for each of us to get a different perspective on things when we
go over our stocks each night. this way we can just see who is on and start a
group chat and talk about the candidates in the final universe or any dry-up
stocks that people might be interested in..
i'm already in contact with TimDog... if anyone would like to join our little
discussion group... just send me a message or something.
cheers.
Re: HWCC
Quote from chiefraven:
have a question regarding HWCC today. It was my Bruno R play for the day.
__________________
hey spyder,
thanks for notifying me of this great play man! what do you think of it now
though... would you get out tomorrow at the first sign of decrease volume or
downward movements of any of the indicators?
i am bringing up this question because the volume for today is actually less
than the volume the previous day.
i will most likely lock in some profits at the first sign of danger tomorrow
after seeing how it opens.... but would just like to hear what you think of my
thinking.
Could you also look at some of my analysis i posted today? if you're not too
busy of course
ps. my BITS is looking like a diamond right now too! my first dry-up stock that
was triggered... been waiting 2 days and finally a signal came!!
What do I think?
Quote from chiefraven:
thanks for notifying me of this great play man! what do you think of it now though...
__________________
oh i know. i plan on learning more about the FTT method as well. But as of
now, i am just concentrating on getting the basics down.
I do feel like i have a pretty good understanding of how things work right
now... at least at the beginner level involving, indicators, dryup, bruno,
rockets, and channels.
Since i'm only beginning to test the system... i am still waiting to see more
dryup stocks in action to give me more confidence the importance of volume....
and once i'm more comfortable with the system. i plan on concentrating more of
my focus on volume and price itself, as well as getting better at channels
drawing -- all of which are important skills to have for the FTT method.
I wasn't really looking for anyone to teach me on how to trade the basic
setups... was just hoping someone could take a look and let me know if i had the
right perspective... i simply didn't know most people have already abandoned the
indicators and old beginner method completely... i thought maybe people would be
using both the advanced FTT method... but also some old beginner methods... like
if they see a bruno or rocket trade, or dryupstock that looks good.... does it
mean that people only uses FTT now ?
CCRT
__________________
chiefraven,
There are still people here trading the basic method. I do. What I found is that
everything is taken care of for you up until and possibly including the time of
the purchase. After the purchase is where discretion comes into play. Personally
I belive there is a lot of discretion at the time of the buy entry as well, only
if you choose to get in earlier around market open vs waiting for the designated
time.
What I have found so far is that there are definitely better entries on the
daily watchlist stocks looking at the 5 min chart ONLY if the chart has a nice
filled out appearance similar to a daily index chart. If you see a lot of close
only bars and a lot of up and down chop bars that have little mini gaps I would
not consider looking at the 5 min at all.
Also, after examining close to 330 charts, I've found that some follow the rules
more than others. As a beginner focus on those. Of all the long list of stocks
you are examining, have you really looked at the daily and the 30 min on all of
them? Can you really say that every single one of them made sense to you? When I
started paying attention to the ones that made sense, things took off in the
right direction.
Over the weekend I spent several hours modeling a simple indicator that everyone
knows using 5 min bar data on roughly 30 to 40 of our universe stocks. After
roughly 8 hours of number crunching, when I took a look at the stats, some
stocks had phenomenal charts. You couldn't ask for a better representation of
buys and sells. I've decided not to waste any time on stocks that don't make
sense. If my model can't make sense of it after 8 hours, how can I?
In conclusion, rank the DU stocks in order of the ones that make sense based on
your current level of knowledge and understanding. Based on the entry criteria
detailed in this journal, buy equal amounts of the 2 or 3 top ones on your list.
End of story. Forget about the other ones.
Also, I have a different opinion on paper trading, but that is my personal
opinion. There is a huge difference between the price you gave yourself when you
paper traded and the price you'll get in the real world. When I was trying to
get out of GIGM recently during the decline, there was a 10 cent difference
between my first exit and my last exit on 1500 shares. Yeah, I know, someone was
riding me down, but I didn't care, as it was I was lucky to exit with some of my
profit intact.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Also, I have a different opinion on paper trading, but that is my personal opinion. There is a huge difference between the price you gave yourself when you paper traded and the price you'll get in the real world.
Re: CCRT
FYI with CCRT chart posted above. They have an Earnings Call this morning.
Probably going to see the stock tank if they don't keep the big boys happy on
that call.
- Spydertrader
__________________
thanks for all the advices guys.
eventhough i am just beginning to test this method. i do feel like i have a
pretty good understanding of the basic concepts, and yeah i know what you mean
about papertrading.. i used to tape read the nyse stocks and scalp using large
sizes so i know very well about the spread and the price you sometime can get
filled at.
look at my BITS go !!!!, same with HWCC!
you guys might want to take a look at ALY as well for a bruno play. it might be
making a run. i'm still waiting for more evidence on this one.
BITS & HWCC
Quote from chiefraven:
look at my BITS go !!!!, same with HWCC!
__________________
Long GRRF based on DU.
Long ATHR based on Plan_B.
Looking at NVEC and ININ.
GRRF's volume is only at 20,538 right now as i type this message.. and
according to wealthlab's calculation:
Upper Band: 127,898
Average DU: 85,345
Lower Band: 42,792
it hasn't even reached lower band....
just a heads up
i thought about nvec as a bruno trade, but dont like it as much... especially
now..
inin gapped down a lot yesterday and it dropped outside of the downward
channel.... but it could very well retrace back into the channel.... sometimes
when there's a gap, stock tends to retrace 1/3 to 1/2 way back to where they
gapped from. just my 2cents.... i stayed out of this one as well
i'm currently monitoring ALY and SIM as my possible bruno plays. i'm also in
XING from 17.85
all paper traded wish i was using
real money hehe
Picked up 1500 XING at 17.7848 average this morning.
- Huskydog
Looks like a lot of us where buying XING this morning.
Still holding XING. On my work execution platform, I have the stock's volume
at 1,231,668, which is greater than FRV. However, on Esignal, I have volume at
1,203,632, which is less than FRV. I hate conflicting signals. I decided to hold
the position overnight.
- Huskydog
i have 1,210,152 for the volume from Qcharts. the desired volume should
exceed 1,220,348, which is the FRV for this stock. However, i'm holding it too
just because it's looking real good right now. It's at its all time high right
now... and it just broke through. not to mentioned it ended the day with very
large volume on the 30 min chart.... i'm holding it just in case if this decide
to run some more and mark a new high at around 19.
DRY-UP STOCKS for 2/14/07:
COGO DTLK DXPE GIGM GRRF HWCC MEH NVEC OMRI GROW IAAC
chiefraven,
Your detailed analysis is excellent. Thanks for the info, as it reinforces
things for me as well as anyone else following along later.
I have a datamining background so I'm always looking to see how what I know fits
in to this superb methodology.
Currently I've discovered some cyclical related patterns that occur in the 5 min
chart. Looking only at stocks that it seems to work well with and further
limiting that only to stocks that are on the official watchlist for today, my
chief focus was GRRF. So, was I early? Yes. I'm willing to take a bit of a risk
to get in for the next day's pop up, assuming GRRF remains in DU for a few days,
and it looks like it will for tomorrow.
I decided to skip NVEC and ININ for your same reasons. Per my earlier post, a
lot of the decision to maintain a stock on the buy watchlist has to do with the
look of the daily and 30 min chart.
So far my experience has been that the Hershey method is very forgiving, at
least initially, i.e. a couple of days after entry. You can still wind up taking
a hit but that has more to do with managing your trade after entry, then your
trade being wrong to begin with.
thanks a lot for the complement. It's a real encouragement for me, as i'm
just starting to test the system. i hope everything works out for you in that
GRRF trade.
i have been goingn through each of the stock in dryup and final universe each
night and jotting down what i think of each... for example, i wrote a day or two
ago that SYX would be a good hold candidate eventhough i do not have any shares
in it... but just hypothetically. I think doing this each night has really
helped me progress as i am able to see my prediction come true or go unrealized.
And if it did not go the way i'd imagine it, then i have the data right in front
of my face to go over why i picked it wrong.
i also had some knowledge when it comes to datamining as well. i was a computer
science major and datamining /database were classes i've taken. with perl and
pl/sql right?
I'm out of GRRF now.
Decreasing price, increasing volume, and more large prints to the sell side than
I cared to see.
Johnpinochet - would you care to share some of the patterns from the 5 minute
you came across?
-Au
Out of XING at 17.96.
Entered HWCC at 26.00, 1000 shares.
- Huskydog
Bought 1000 shares of HWCC at 25.77 this AM. Thanks to all for confirming the
need to keep a close eye on it as a performer.
Any ideas on the move having legs? I like to stay in a few days at a minimum,
but by the same token, stocks popping up a buck plus in one day are few and far
between.
HWCC
Quote from johnpinochet:
Any ideas on the move having legs? I like to stay in a few days at a minimum, but by the same token, stocks popping up a buck plus in one day are few and far between.
__________________
in HWCC at 24.10 bitches
it was a bruno play a few days back... spyder called it out actually
Anyone have any thoughts on IAAC? Looks like a nice reversal on good volume
after the earnings report. It is also right at the descending RTL, and if the
stock trades $20.00 then it will be just over the high for the past 5 trading
sessions. MACD histogram is positive and the fast stochastic has crossed above
50. Please see attached chart.
- Huskydog
i noticed this stock as well... but if you look at the slow stochastic...
eventhough it's setup as a bruno play, but if you look at the last bruno setup
which was just before jan. it ook a long time for the stochastic to bounce back
up and crosses over...... even the mid jan macd being positive didn't help ....
so i stayed away from it. the past history told us this is not the typical bruno
we want to get into.
it could work this time... but just to be safe, i stayed away because of its
past history. plus the the slow stochastic has already past the 50mark... so
even if you want to get in on this as a bruno play it's already a little too
late.. and if you look at the price... the shootup of the slow stochastic didn't
help the price at all... it simply didn't go anywhere.
Quote from chiefraven:
in HWCC at 24.10 ... it was a bruno play a few days back... spyder called it out actually
you're absolutely right on your observation. since i got in early with the
bruno setup. i took half my position off when the slow stochastic dipped below
80 i think it was just a little after the open today... and let the other half
ride as this stock exceeded dryup. i got the other half out when the stock
reached Peak Volume today.
so basically i had two different setups working at the same time in this
stock... first i got in because of the bruno... then got half out because the
bruno doesn't look as good as before.... and left the other half to ride on th e
dryup wave... which provided me with a little bit more profits.... before i
decided to close the rest of the position.
i think i will be trading with real capital pretty soon.. feel like i have a
pretty good understanding of how things move in regards to the beginner method
i can not stress it enough..... saving the pictures from wealth-lab site of
the stocks you're looking at the next day, as well as any stocks that you find
interesting... like a possible bruno, rocket ... are well worth the effort.
Write down what you think of each... then the next day right down your
observation, and save the new charts of these stocks and compare them to the old
chart to see whether they moved t he way you pictured it, or was there something
you didn't catch on the first time.... how was this bruno differ from the other
bruno stock in regards to their fast and slow stochastic..... did it have high
volume just a few days ago with decreasing prices? etc etc...
doing these work has really helped me in understanding and picking the good ones
out of the basket.
LQDT
Requested Chart .....
__________________
Indicators
For those of you choosing to use indicators for your stock trades,
here is some advice from the man himself.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from chiefraven:
you're absolutely right on your observation. since i got in early with the bruno setup.
Re: Indicators
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those of you choosing to use indicators for your stock trades, here is some advice from the man himself.
- Spydertrader
Re: STEC chart
Quote from bi9foot:
Watch for a possible FTT to form
Spydertrader,
Which charting package are you using to display your trades?
Quote from johnpinochet:
Which charting package are you using to display your trades?
__________________
Quote from Aurum:
I'm out of GRRF now.
Decreasing price, increasing volume, and more large prints to the sell side than I cared to see.
Johnpinochet - would you care to share some of the patterns from the 5 minute you came across?
-Au
XING still looking good even with this horrible down market today =D
i'm liking REDF as a possible Bruno R play.
still holding on to XING
currently earning 8.1% on XING.... still holding eventhough it reached peak
volume becasue this little dryup stock has transformed into a rocket.
I sold XING this morning at 19.25 for a 7.72% profit. Hitting the top of a
channel I drew on 2/13 prompted the sale.
Can anyone point me to info on the Bruno R stuff you guys are talking about. I
did a search but it's hard to find the beginning of the discussion or a good
concise explanation of it.
Thanks!
Quote from chiefraven:
currently earning 8.1% on XING.... still holding eventhough it reached peak volume becasue this little dryup stock has transformed into a rocket.
Hmmm I thought this method required the stock be in the upper 30% of EPS?
I looked up xing out of curiosity on yahoo finance and there is no EPS Actual
data.
Only estimates.
What gives? Is the data missing? Or are you playing this one loosely?
Quote from traderdragon2:
Hmmm I thought this method required the stock be in the upper 30% of EPS?
I looked up xing out of curiosity on yahoo finance and there is no EPS Actual data.
Only estimates.
What gives? Is the data missing? Or are you playing this one loosely?
looks like a rocket on the 5 minute for GIGM
Time to answer an easy question: seconds
Time to scrounge thru 500+ pages of crap to find the answer to a simple
question: hours
Maybe someone else will actually be helpful here
Quote from traderdragon2:
Time to answer an easy question: seconds
Time to scrounge thru 500+ pages of crap to find the answer to a simple question: hours
Maybe someone else will actually be helpful here
Questions
Quote from bdolnik:
Can anyone point me to info on the Bruno R stuff you guys are talking about. I did a search but it's hard to find the beginning of the discussion or a good concise explanation of it.
Quote from traderdragon2:
Hmmm I thought this method required the stock be in the upper 30% of EPS?
__________________
Ok, answered my own question.
Yahoo EPS date on XING is simply missing.
Re: Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
You can begin with the original post by Jack, or Search under my name for the discussion.
Quote from traderdragon2:
Time to answer an easy question: seconds
Time to scrounge thru 500+ pages of crap to find the answer to a simple question: hours
Maybe someone else will actually be helpful here
LQDT Update
Updating Chart
__________________
Spydertrader,
I know the purpose of the thread is the Hershey method which doesn't really deal
with long term holds, i.e. eventually even a stock that might be worth holding
for months or years is going to be sold in a short period of time via this
method.
My question is, do you sock money away in long term holds in a separate account?
I'd like to start funneling money into some some of the universe stocks but I
really can't decide. On the one hand I had some success with holding some of
them longer than the strict method would allow, i.e. previous post, on the other
hand holding GIGM longer than I should have almost proved disastrous.
Any advise? Are there any of the universe stocks or previous universe stocks
that you look at and say to yourself, you know, I could see myself holding on to
that one in a separate account for months, or even a year or so?
Thanks in advance!
JohnP
Since every day we have roughly 3 - 6 stocks on the DU watchlist, I'm
thinking that an interesting idea might be to list our stocks to watch but to
also add an aside like this:
If I could only buy 1000 shares of one, I would buy:
So, for example, for me yesterday, the stock was HWCC. A week or so ago, it was
GROW, before that it would have been GIGM or BITS.
I'm very curious to know which of the daily DU watchlist stocks, or even from
the tenured stocks that people are looking at do they in the back of their mind
say, if I could only buy 1 (or maybe 2) I would buy 1000 shares of this one.
Hi John,
I'm interested as to why you want to hold some of the FU stocks longer term.
This method (I believe) is all about 'flipping' highly volatile stocks.
My preference is to enter as many stocks as possible as I believe that I am
diversifying my risk and hold them for the shortest time possible. That's why I
have a hard 10% profit target. I'll take the chunk in the middle of a move and
then get out of the stock. Sure, the stock may move 20 or even 30%, but in all
the tests I've done, the stocks tend to retrace or stall after a 10 - 15% move.
When it stalls or retraces, it's my belief that it will probably enter 'dry up'
again and I'll get back in.
The 'floppies code' method, which I have almost competely coded into Amibroker,
has a maximum hold period of 16 days. Perhaps that may be better?
I don't think this method is suited to a longer term hold. Perhaps you could
adapt it by looking at weekly charts and focussing on the channel / FTT, which I
have not even touched in my setup.
Quote from johnpinochet:
If I could only buy 1000 shares of one, I would buy:
mischief,
Thanks for your observations. I know you have done a lot of data mining of the
data for this method, so I'll have to concede that maybe it isn't such a great
idea. Perhaps it is more of an occasional observation or a private message type
thing?
OK, well, set that one aside then. I still think the issue of "If I could only
buy 1 (or 2) and buy 1000 shares of that stock, I would buy this one." I think
that is valuable, as it helps reinforce that a certain stock is firing on all
cylinders in terms of the stock chart time frames, price action, volume action,
fundamental issues, etc.
JohnP
This may turn out to be a submarine instead of a rocket
I'll be ready for either.
Quote from johnpinochet:
..
My question is, do you sock money away in long term holds in a separate account? I'd like to start funneling money into some some of the universe stocks but I really can't decide...
Thanks in advance!
JohnP
Quote from nkhoi:
ask yourself what will be the estimate return on the long term hold account?
Quote from johnpinochet:
I should rephrase the above on GROW to leave out February, and exit the first week of January!
If you are wondering why I brought up the long term question, it was prompted
by checking my 401K (retirement account) with which I am trading the Hershey
method, albeit modified for longer holds.
Even with the star that became a dog, ANGN, and the other misfires, I'm up more
on my tax free retirement account than my day trading account.
With the retirement account, I roughly buy and sell twice a month.
My method for picking the selections for the retirement account has nothing to
do with the short term technique I mentioned. It is all found in Spydertrader's
post about stocks that are about to pop looking at the chart resulting from the
Wealthlab script and the MACD. To be honest, if I had to throw out everything
I've studied so far and only go with one or two things, it would be the summary
of Journal 1, and the "MACD/stocks about to pop" post found somewhere here in
Journal 2.
If you were to couple the above conclusion with money management and an exit
strategy, then I think you would have a formidable method that is simply a
slight variation of the Hershey method. The beauty of it is that other than the
hour or so of effort for the day of the trade, my time involvement in
maintenance is minimal, close to 0 minutes a day. This blows away the daily hour
of study plus the 3 hours or so of watching the market that I'm doing now day
trading and swing trading the Hershey method.
Quote from mischief:
And that last statement is the whole point!
One task may be to go back and try to work out how much of GROW's rise would you have captured using the methodology. I am sure you would've been in and out of the stock several times.
Quote from mischief:
And that last statement is the whole point!
One task may be to go back and try to work out how much of GROW's rise would you have captured using the methodology. I am sure you would've been in and out of the stock several times.
I'd like to thank everyone who replied re: the long term issue.
I've given the matter more thought and one of the things I must make clear is
that part of the reason my retirement account performance is greater than my day
trading performance is that I loaded up on HWCC, BITS and XING and had lesser
amounts on the other stocks I've traded.
The reason for loading up on the above three has to do with some of my previous
posts, especially HWCC and XING. Actually, let me clarify, I picked the three as
well as all of my selections in the retirement account as I posted previously a
little while ago. I loaded up on the above three per my postings about patterns
etc.
I didn't think it was an issue as theoretically I could have loaded up on the
dogs as well, but it goes a long way towards explaining the discrepancy.
FWIW, the long term issue has been resolved for me. The method as detailed here
and as elaborated on by Spydertrader, mischief, monkman, and rick is how I'll
butter my bread.
Argh! Let me clarify one more time. I'm not saying that my method increased the return. I'm saying that loading up on the above three is alone responsible for the increased return. The method that brought the stocks to me was the Hershey method only. Loading up on the three was my discretion.
Quote from mischief:
The 'floppies code' method, which I have almost competely coded into Amibroker, has a maximum hold period of 16 days.
Quote from johnpinochet:
FWIW, the long term issue has been resolved for me. The method as detailed here and as elaborated on by Spydertrader, mischief, monkman, and rick is how I'll butter my bread.
Quick easy question.
I am studying the Volume Guassians.
Currently my charting software gives me a red volume bar if the price closes
below the open of the bar itself.
But I know that another method is to give a red volume bar if the price closes
below the close of the day before.
Which method should I be using to best intrepret the Volume Gaussians that have
been often referred to in this journal?
Thanks!
Quote from OpenTrader:
Which method should I be using to best interpret the Volume Gaussians that have been often referred to in this journal?
__________________
Chart for Monday
Attached is a daily chart of GIGM. On Thursday the stock was in dry up, and
on Friday it went into FRV and ended the day at .72
What we would like to see now is for volume to increase followed by price. What
we are hoping is that a B2R or B2B formation will start to develop. At that
point we are looking for price to break above the blue LTL, and hold above, till
it eventually hits the upper most turquoise LTL. Another scenario I foresee is
price riding the blue tape up slowly and then making a b/o. And then of course
it could spill its guts and break through both RTL which at that point we wave
goodbye, and move on to bigger and better things.
If you have any comments of suggestions please post.
- Monkman
Per PM message, I'm sharing the links I mentioned in my earlier post
regarding if I had to only take two things from everything written about the
Hershey method.
Spydertrader's concluding methodolgy post found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=343
Spydertrader's observations on MACD found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=13
Please note, that I think the above has been talked to death so being able to
understand and follow item 1, is an indication of whether the method will suit
your mindset, i.e. review the first link to see if you even want to pursue this
further. After a bit of time has passed, review item 2. In my opinion, item 1
coupled with item 2 is all you need for a powerful beginning method. From there,
if you want to explore things further, then start looking into the intermediate
and advanced aspects.
Re: Chart for Monday
Quote from Monkman:
Attached is a daily chart of GIGM. On Thursday the stock was in dry up, and on Friday it went into FRV and ended the day at .72
What we would like to see now is for volume to increase followed by price. What we are hoping is that a B2R or B2B formation will start to develop. At that point we are looking for price to break above the blue LTL, and hold above, till it eventually hits the upper most turquoise LTL. Another scenario I foresee is price riding the blue tape up slowly and then making a b/o. And then of course it could spill its guts and break through both RTL which at that point we wave goodbye, and move on to bigger and better things.
If you have any comments of suggestions please post.
- Monkman
Review for the coming week:
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR
NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for
tomorrow, Monday, 19 February 2007:
CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GROW MIKR NVEC OMRI RATE
I regard the above DU3 as a little on the high side in terms of the number of
symbols. Would someone list their official DU3 for Monday, please?
After my own personal culling process I have these stocks only on my daily
watchlist for Monday:
FTEK DTLK DXPE RATE
The above 4 were selected based on a combination of factors listed here:
Appearance of daily chart.
Placement in the channel.
Candlestick bar over the last few days.
MACD.
Looking at the 5 min, I would only take:
FTEK and RATE
If I had to take only 1, I can't decide. They both look good. I plan on buying a
lot of both assuming they fire on the Hershey buy criteria.
Thoughts, comments?
Plan_B stocks:
ALY has a really good-looking daily chart indicating a possible setup for an
upside breakout. It is a Bruno play.
GIGM
Oh man. Finally someone is speaking English over here in J Hershey land!
occasionally i drop by to see what's up and finally i can help.
re: GIGM. This has been a stonedinvesting fave for quite some time- my wife's
entire IRA is sitting in it ( she has a small IRA)
The stock is sitting in a sweet spot both the technical picture and the
fundamental... very much a $20 stock LT I think, although I will be stepping off
@ $16 ST.
~stoney
johnpinochet
Review for the coming week:
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR
NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GROW MIKR NVEC OMRI RATE
FTEK DTLK DXPE RATE>
Greetings, a couple of your names I have deep experience with- most notably
CHDX. This is an interesting company but a highly volatile stock I have been
both way up and way down on this name often in the span of only a few days- I am
now out. XING I stepped off Friday as well. Another interesting story and
beautiful chart- but extended over $19. FTEK & GROW I'm just sick of hearing
about. LQDT I am in big and have been disappointed it should pop back.
SIRF is a great stock I own.
For your watch list- I too have BITS on mine!
But for 4 powerful names to consider:
Here We Go:
ONSM> Onstream Media's pioneering Digital Media Services Platform (DMSP)
provides its customers with the necessary tools for webcasting, web conferencing
and webinars as well as managing digital assets, publishing content on the
Internet in various files and formats and establishing e- commerce storefronts
to transact business online.
The chart is strong and the stock has lots of room to run. The new release for
them enables easy downlode of images to these social networking sites kids these
days are so enamored with.
XOMA> My favorite new bio play right now. Great chart. Stock will double in 3
months.
HXL> Looking at this one this week. Becoming a carbon play for aerospace. Great
chart.
RMBS> Is sort of right on the cusp. Looking good.
~stoney
NFLX
__________________
Canadian Stocks
Just wondering if anyone is using this method with Canadian Stocks. What kind
of filter are you using to select the stocks?
Thanks.
__________________
-----------------
4X_is_4U
Re: Canadian Stocks
Quote from 4XIS4U:
Just wondering if anyone is using this method with Canadian Stocks. What kind of filter are you using to select the stocks?
Thanks.
Re: NFLX
Quote from Spydertrader:
Re: Canadian Stocks
Quote from 4XIS4U:
Just wondering if anyone is using this method with Canadian Stocks. What kind of filter are you using to select the stocks?
Thanks.
Re: Re: NFLX
Quote from Monkman:
Are my channels correct? I drew them a little bit different than yours.
__________________
Spydertrader,
Any comments on my final selection of only looking to trade:
FTEK and RATE
for Monday 19 February 2007, i.e. which ones would you have thrown out/kept?
Any comments on my Plan_B symbol, ALY?
Quote from johnpinochet:
Spydertrader,
Any comments on my final selection of only looking to trade:
FTEK and RATE
for Monday 19 February 2007, i.e. which ones would you have thrown out/kept?
Any comments on my Plan_B symbol, ALY?
Thanks Monkman!
When you say out of those symbols, you mean out of all the DU symbols or between
FTEK and RATE?
John
market is not open on monday by the way guys
president's day.
tuesday is the day for battle
Re: Canadian Stocks
Quote from 4XIS4U:
Just wondering if anyone is using this method with Canadian Stocks. What kind of filter are you using to select the stocks?
Thanks.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Thanks Monkman!
When you say out of those symbols, you mean out of all the DU symbols or between FTEK and RATE?
John
John
My FU and DU3 list are identical to yours.
I also ran a list for DU6 and that threw up BITS and SIRF.
Out of these, the charts I'll be having a closer look at include FTEK GROW RATE
and SIRF
Cheers
Quote from johnpinochet:
...
Would someone list their official DU3 for Monday, please?
I like GROW and SIRF, but I have reasons for not getting too excited by them.
GROW's advances since its collapse have all been short-lived. While I do believe
it is has potential, I'm a bit concerned that it hasn't finished its down move.
SIRF? SIRF was my first experience with discovering that our selections can tank
and tank hard, i.e. 12 Jan - 22 Jan 2007. Don't misunderstand, I knew it comes
with the territory, I just thought that I could avoid it by careful selection.
You can't. It is bound to happen and the only thing that will save you is the
stop and/or equal amounts in other Hershey stocks.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Spydertrader,
Any comments on my final selection of only looking to trade:
FTEK and RATE
Any comments on my Plan_B symbol, ALY?
__________________
I'm having a go at drawing channels on the daily charts for FTEK, GROW, RATE
and SIRF and I must say even with my newbie channel technique, RATE really looks
the most promising followed by FTEK.
RATE is in a nice up channel on both daily and weekly charts. It's about midway
on the daily and whether it will actually traverse down to form a point 3
remains to be seen.
FTEK is also in a up channel on the daily and the weekly. Having said that, it
is in the upper portion of the weekly channel, so a retrace back to the RTL
would not be unexpected. On the daily, whilst the main channel is still up, the
short term channel is down. I'm a little confused as my channeling has resulted
in a symmetrical pennant formation?!
GROW is in a down channel in both the daily and weekly charts. Not too
promising.
SIRF is actually sitting quite nicely in an upward channel in the weekly chart.
It's also in an up channel on the daily and appears to be forming a point 3. I
must admit to being a little uncomfortable with the daily channel as it was
initiated by the large gap up at the beginning of Feb.
Anyway that's my attempt at (over?)analysing. I'll try to attach the pics if I
can work out how it's done.
Cheers
GROW Daily
RATE Daily
SIRF Daily
When a visitor as gifted and well tempered as the stonedinvestor drops some
picks on your board. Is it not polite to buy them? At the very least they should
be put through the technical obstacle course you set up for stocks before
realizing they have broken out!
>
But for 4 powerful names to consider:
Here We Go:
ONSM> The new release for them enables easy downlode of images to these social
networking sites kids these days are so enamored with.
XOMA> My favorite new bio play right now. Great chart. Stock will double in 3
months.
HXL> Looking at this one this week. Becoming a carbon play for aerospace. Great
chart.
RMBS> Is sort of right on the cusp. Looking good.
>>>>> NFLX is going much lower obviously!.....
Quote from stonedinvestor:
When a visitor as gifted and well tempered as the stonedinvestor drops some picks on your board. Is it not polite to buy them? At the very least they should be put through the technical obstacle course you set up for stocks before realizing they have broken out!
>
But for 4 powerful names to consider:
Here We Go:
ONSM> The new release for them enables easy downlode of images to these social networking sites kids these days are so enamored with.
XOMA> My favorite new bio play right now. Great chart. Stock will double in 3 months.
HXL> Looking at this one this week. Becoming a carbon play for aerospace. Great chart.
RMBS> Is sort of right on the cusp. Looking good.
>>>>> NFLX is going much lower obviously!.....
Monkman guilty as charged. I'm sorry I don't know the Hershey method. Perhaps
if you just accept the fact that I am an idea man and I have the ideas- the
ideas that go up for a variety of reasons- technical being ONE of them. You then
could filter them on your own time and see if you agree-- what's nice is my
stocks tend to go up a lot which give TA ers' the chance to get in too.
I didn't mention HTI but I love it and it's instructive> it has shot up from $4
to $8 and normally one would wait for a healthy retrace before getting involved.
But if you follow the inside newsflow on the company you know that there are
some recent Price Target adjustments in the $11 range, that acts like a pull on
the stock and why it's such a nice buy at $9. it completes the island in the sky
pattern-- in other words it aint coming back.
ONSM very much the same scenario it gapped hard on some great news their new
technology is perfect for uploading junk into all these networking sites.. it
has been given every chance at retracing, I believe it's basing for another robe
higher.
XOMA will be delivering newsflow soon that will propel the stock, but for you
guys a simple 1 year look with volume will show that this feb everything changed
for this stock- and the ride has just begun.
~stoney
.
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Monkman guilty as charged. I'm sorry I don't know the Hershey method. Perhaps if you just accept the fact that I am an idea man and I have the ideas- the ideas that go up for a variety of reasons- technical being ONE of them. You then could filter them on your own time and see if you agree-- what's nice is my stocks tend to go up a lot which give TA ers' the chance to get in too.
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Snip . . . XOMA will be delivering newsflow soon that will propel the stock, but for you guys a simple 1 year look with volume will show that this feb everything changed for this stock- and the ride has just begun.
~stoney
.
Re: Re: Canadian Stocks
Quote from TimDog:
I looked into this about 6 months ago and could not find a stock screener that gave EPS and RS percentile rankings like in stocktables. Although, using the new Journal 3 method of replacing EPS and RS with insider and instituational ownership may be easier. Also, if you want to look at a stock on the TSE using the wealth-lab scripts just put .TO at the end of the symbol (ABC.TO) Rank, score and offset % will be displayed but only some will show the DU values.
Hope that helps, and if you do find a canadian screener for EPS and RS please let me know.
Rate Earnings Tomorrow
Careful, I believe RATE has earnings tomorrow.
Bankrate, Inc. at Roth 19th Annual OC Conference (Live)
02/20/07 at 1:00 p.m. PT
Re: Rate Earnings Tomorrow
Quote from OpenTrader:
Careful, I believe RATE has earnings tomorrow.
Bankrate, Inc. at Roth 19th Annual OC Conference (Live)
02/20/07 at 1:00 p.m. PT
Re: Rate Earnings Tomorrow
Quote from OpenTrader:
Careful, I believe RATE has earnings tomorrow.
Bankrate, Inc. at Roth 19th Annual OC Conference (Live)
02/20/07 at 1:00 p.m. PT
COGO and FTEK
I came up with COGO and FTEK in my selection.
Good trading all.
Re: Re: Canadian Stocks
Quote from TimDog:
Hope that helps, and if you do find a canadian screener for EPS and RS please let me know. [/B]
Boy talk about insular attitudes! This thread is devoted to Hershey
chocolate. So be it. I hardly arrived saying everything you were doing is wrong!
I only wanted to give you a few names to throw about- who knows maybe you could
of helped me by saying one looked particularly good to you all.
The ability to adjust thinking in mid flight is one of the most important ways
to stay on your feet while investing and never get wiped out- an inclusive
thought process-- one which takes in other forces moving the markets into
consideration is so important. Straight TA without an ear to economics &
newsflow is cows being led to slaughter scenario... sure the path is laid out
for you-- just follow the others-- but remember where you are going- to the
slaughterhouse.
If any of you all took the time to read other parts of ET's board you would
already be well familiar with the stonedinvestor and wouldn't suggest silly
titles like:
"Ideaman Stoney's Ideal Stocks." First off if you have been involved in
investing long enough you would know there are no ideal stocks- you probably
meant idea stocks-- but the idea is only the flame that ignites the research,
there's insider activity, institutional holders, MACD, RS, MF, Volume
Accumulation & Analysis, stock tracking, historical pricing, PE to Growth rates,
what's in the pipeline, management, cash in the bank, free cash flow,- perfect
entry prices, etc... it is only after all that comes together... then you can
sit back secure in the fact that there is a motivational force STILL TO COME on
the stock which will push it even higher.
A few of you no doubt are smart enough to see the big picture: Stock screens can
return a batch of names you have never heard of and have no idea about. You can
buy them blindly if you wish and use your support lines to exit every story too
early. OR you can blend your methodology and take a tip from stoney who gave you
already vetted ideas ready to roar.
Peace.
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Boy talk about insular attitudes! This thread is devoted to Hershey chocolate. So be it. I hardly arrived saying everything you were doing is wrong! I only wanted to give you a few names to throw about- who knows maybe you could of helped me by saying one looked particularly good to you all.
The ability to adjust thinking in mid flight is one of the most important ways to stay on your feet while investing and never get wiped out- an inclusive thought process-- one which takes in other forces moving the markets into consideration is so important. Straight TA without an ear to economics & newsflow is cows being led to slaughter scenario... sure the path is laid out for you-- just follow the others-- but remember where you are going- to the slaughterhouse.
If any of you all took the time to read other parts of ET's board you would already be well familiar with the stonedinvestor and wouldn't suggest silly titles like:
"Ideaman Stoney's Ideal Stocks." First off if you have been involved in investing long enough you would know there are no ideal stocks- you probably meant idea stocks-- but the idea is only the flame that ignites the research, there's insider activity, institutional holders, MACD, RS, MF, Volume Accumulation & Analysis, stock tracking, historical pricing, PE to Growth rates, what's in the pipeline, management, cash in the bank, free cash flow,- perfect entry prices, etc... it is only after all that comes together... then you can sit back secure in the fact that there is a motivational force STILL TO COME on the stock which will push it even higher.
A few of you no doubt are smart enough to see the big picture: Stock screens can return a batch of names you have never heard of and have no idea about. You can buy them blindly if you wish and use your support lines to exit every story too early. OR you can blend your methodology and take a tip from stoney who gave you already vetted ideas ready to roar.
Peace.
I went with XOMA folks. Please see my reasons in the stock section. Good luck to you all!
In with NFLX @ $23.20
Short ALY $17.25
In with REDF @ $19.48
Anyone short CTRN?
Look at GIGM go!
Still killin meself for HWCC!
Good trading guys! off to work!
In and out of GIGM already
in @ 12.55 adjusted basis
out @ 13.05
still keeping an eye on it.
I guess my retirement account just took a major spike up.
great stuff spyder
I'm a completely newbie trader, i guess i can consider myself lucky to stombled
onto this.
Still learning to control my emotions, but even with a crap load of mistakes
with a few days of trading i'm still up a little.
Chartscript Upgrade
Hershey Equities Chartscript Version 4.2
Does someone know if thisscript has been "translated" into EasyLanguage some-
where.
Don't know anything about the Wealth Lab language unfortunately.
Thank you...
Charly
Spyder, could you post a chart of SIRF with your channels drawn in. I have trouble figuring out how to draw the channels when there has been a large gap recently (01/31 in this case). TIA
Quote from TimDog:
Spyder, could you post a chart of SIRF with your channels drawn in. I have trouble figuring out how to draw the channels when there has been a large gap recently (01/31 in this case). TIA
__________________
NFLX
Quote from stonedinvestor:
>>>>> NFLX is going much lower obviously!.....
__________________
Quote from thething:
great stuff spyder
__________________
That would've hurt....
Good point, though. You can avoid trading around earnings announcements, but you
can never plan for takeover bids.
In the current market, where there are deals happening everywhere, this is even
a greater risk.
Quote from gooch87:
Nicely Done
Quote from johnpinochet:
I guess my retirement account just took a major spike up.
__________________
GROW
Possible FTT and a Bruno R play
Need volume to get out of dry-up levels.
Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
Possible FTT and a Bruno R play
Need volume to get out of dry-up levels.
Re: NFLX
Quote from Spydertrader:
Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
Possible FTT and a Bruno R play
Need volume to get out of dry-up levels.
Re: Re: GROW
Quote from Monkman:
I thought a FTT had to be at a price where volume is around Peak levels, and starts to drop off afterwards. Anyone know the answer to this?
- Monkman
Re: Re: GROW
Quote from Monkman:
I thought a FTT had to be at a price where volume is around Peak levels, and starts to drop off afterwards. Anyone know the answer to this?
__________________
Watching to DU or not....
To exit or not hmmm...no downtrend volume exists??? will the next few days shake more out so that volume follows?
NFLX...Spydies' gift??
Im not sure I got my numbers correct as it shows FRV at 707K and peak at 1.4M;
today it peaked..so...i should have sold??
Quote from virgintrader:
NFLX...Spydies' gift??
Im not sure I got my numbers correct as it shows FRV at 707K and peak at 1.4M; today it peaked..so...i should have sold??
Per earlier posts I keep track of over 300 stocks.
I went through some of them with the Wealth-lab Hershey's Equities Chartscript
version 4.2.
Run it on the symbol ACY.
Beauty.
That very large black volume bar occured on 06 Feb 2007.
9.92 to 19.50 in 16 calendar days.
Picked up 500 GROW at 40.45 as a Bruno R play at 11:40, and picked up 700 GRRF at 13.61.
in and out of GROW
in @ 40.35
out @ 41.35 for a point
GROW
Those of you trading GROW today, nice to see your insular attitudes
helped you to profit. Nice
trades guys.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Just sold the 500 GROW at 43.54 for a $1545 profit. Ended up buying another
500 in my swing account at $40.9892, which I will hold until at least EOD. Still
holding 700 GRRF.
yeah, i was feelin' all happy and sassy there til that news release.
oh well, there's always another trade
Well,
I apparently put my stop in with my broker a little too close to the market and
was stopped out at 42.75. Still a residual bad habit from daytrading, but I am
getting better at it. I ended up making $880.45 on that 500 share position.
There is a lot of money out there once you learn some of the more advanced
techniques that Spydertrader and Jack have shared with everyone in the space of
these Journals. Thank you very much.
- Huskydog
Quote from Huskydog:
Just sold the 500 GROW at 43.54 for a $1545 profit. Ended up buying another 500 in my swing account at $40.9892, which I will hold until at least EOD. Still holding 700 GRRF.
Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
Possible FTT and a Bruno R play
Need volume to get out of dry-up levels.
NFLX news (from Briefing.com):
07-Feb-07 17:47 ET In Play Standard & Poor’s Announces Changes to U.S. Indices :
Varian Medical Systems (VAR) will replace Equity Office Properties Trust (EOP)
in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Cerner (CERN) will replace Varian
in the S&P MidCap 400, PSS World Medical (PSSI) will replace Cerner in the S&P
SmallCap 600, and Extra Space Storage (EXR) will replace Equity Office in the
S&P REIT Composite after the close of trading on a date to be announced. Equity
Office is being acquired by The Blackstone Group in a deal that is still pending
final approvals. Integrys Energy Group, will replace Peoples Energy (PGL) in the
S&P 500 and Netflix, (NFLX) will replace WPS Resources (WPS) in the S&P MidCap
400 after the close of trading on a date to be announced. Peoples Energy is
being acquired by WPS Resources in a deal that is still pending final approvals.
Upon completion of the deal, WPS Resources will change its name to Integrys
Energy Group, Inc. and will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the
symbol TEG.
Might be some volatility with this stock at the close. Be careful with it.
- Huskydog
Re: Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
In @ 40.04, out at @44.40 ~ 10%
__________________
Quote from Huskydog:
Well,
I apparently put my stop in with my broker a little too close to the market and was stopped out at 42.75. Still a residual bad habit from daytrading, but I am getting better at it. I ended up making $880.45 on that 500 share position.
There is a lot of money out there once you learn some of the more advanced techniques that Spydertrader and Jack have shared with everyone in the space of these Journals. Thank you very much.
- Huskydog
Late entry on GROW. In 200 shares at 41.20.
I'll be holding for awhile. Only regret is that once again I only purchased 200
shares. There were too many choices today so I held off on buying too much of
only one.
I put in a buy for ANGN at 16.60 which didn't get filled. It was right at 0953
on the 5 min bar it decided to make its move. I raised it to 17.04 for awhile
and then decided I didn't want to chase it.
I bought a little bit (200) of GRRF based on Bruno and a small amount of GIGM
(500) based on personal observations of the stock. At all of their highs today,
I was up quite a bit, over 1000 USD, but since I hold for at least a day, I'm up
but not nearly as much.
TimDog,
It was a Bruno R setup. On the daily chart, the 5,2,3 stochastic (fast
stochastic) had fallen rapidly below 20 (the %K) and had begun to rise, and the
MACD histogram was about equal to the centerline. I had my eye on the stock to
see if the fast stochastic would cross 50 and generate a buy signal per the
Bruno R strategy.
Once I saw the fast stochastic cross 50, I hesitated before entering. If I
recall correctly, I think a trader could have picked up stock 30 to 40 cents
lower. This was my first Bruno R trade, and I wanted to see how it developed.
Basically, I hesitated.
I don't think that it hurt the trade that the stock was in DU either.
I hope that helps.
- Huskydog
Quote from TimDog:
Just wondering what tipped u guys off to get into GROW. I had it on my watchlist as well but the volume just didnt seem to be there for me. It didnt hit LBDU by 10:30am and wasnt on pace to hit FRV, plus around 11:40am the Vol% was only at about 18%. Can u guys help me out in how u made the decision to enter. BTW excellent trade, i wish i had a piece of it today.
TimDog,
We have been following GROW for awhile, since Sept or Oct 2006 for me and maybe
longer for everyone else.
After following it for so long you begin to know its habits. Take a look at the
30 min chart, and compare that to the other stocks on today's watchlist. Look at
the 5 min as well. GROW as well as many of the other Hershey stocks in DU, on a
buy watchlist for the day, and about to pop up, all seem to exhibit a certain 5
min pattern. The pattern will vary depending on the indicators you are using as
well as their settings. I have the ability to adapt my indicators via a neural
network, as well as via an open source data mining tool I use (WEKA), but the
standard settings on any of the indicators mentioned here (hint: read the
journal) seem to work as well.
By the way, you don't need any special tools with the Hershey method. You can
visually inspect any chart and see what Spydertrader is talking about in a
matter of seconds. Software tools just help with number crunching and finding
patterns in a great deal of stocks.
Some thoughts on today:
I almost cancelled my buy order on GROW when it was up 1.00 for the day because
I thought I might be chasing it again. My confidence in the buy was 100% related
to GROW's daily chart via the Hershy chartscript.
GROW was one of the only DU stocks that was close to the bottom of its daily
channel seen via the above wealth-lab script.
While the quick day trades are great, I think GROW has a lot more room
available.
hey Johns, could you tell me about the neural network as well as the WEKA
tool you mentioned? i'm very interested in learning about both of them and how
they are utilized in trading.
ps. can you show me websites where i can check these out too?
and how helpful do you find them to be?
would like to hear your thoughts on these products.
Re: Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
In @ 40.04, out at @44.40 ~ 10%
Re: Re: GROW
Quote from bi9foot:
In @ 40.04, out at @44.40 ~ 10%
Chiefraven,
Anything you would like to know about WEKA can be found here:
http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/
I use the linux version and run everything via the command line. They have a GUI
as well, but for the amount of data I process (many many gigs of data) the GUI
is worthless.
One of the classifier trees is called J48. It will write rules for you in an
IF=>THEN=>ELSE format. This will quickly let you see how you might adjust your
parameters for various results. I use a combination of J48 for its simplicity
and NaiveBayes. I've written my own wrappers to pre-process data, and to apply
the classifiers against the data and save statistics to a directory. Then via a
simple linux grep command I can see the % correct as well as other criteria and
evaluate various models.
My other application is based on a genetic algorithm. There is a long story
behind this one, and for the time being, suffice it to say that WEKA will
address virtually all of your concerns and even some of the genetic algorithm
stuff.
I would explore WEKA 100% before buying anything. The problem is that in order
to use it you have to get your hands dirty and learn about parsing a text file,
pre-processing your data, Java, etc.
Personally I think they are just a tool for confirmation and understanding. Some
people have been able to get them to work to trade automatically. I haven't.
Even those who do get them to work have documented that it is a constant battle
dealing with degradation of performance and when to retrain.
I haven't quit my day job based on any of this so take everything with a grain
of salt. Then again, only a fool would quit my day job, but that is another
story.
Before you get too involved, allow me to make a comment. I've been trading on
and off seriously for about 13 years and semi-seriously for an additional 10
years. In all this time, the only thing I have come across that can consistently
get you in on the right side, make you money even if you make mistakes, and
doesn't require much time or energy, is the Hershey method as espoused here by
Spydertrader.
The only reason why I continue my data mining studies is to help me to
understand what is going on and to hopefully create a profile of the ideal DU
stock on the daily watchlist. It is not necessary to do this!
Re: Re: Re: GROW
Quote from PointOne:
Looks like I picked the wrong night to go out for a beer!
Here's my hi-tech neural-net datamining hotlist review (from last saturday):
Quote from Aurum:
You may want to consider selling within the first 30 minutes on Wednesday. YMMV
-Au
wash
$60beer money! Thanks AU...
I am curious what you folks are thinking about NVEC? It still has rank, but I am considering removing it from my universe. Mistake? It has been in dryup and getting tighter and tighter but for some reason I feel like it has lost it's rank potential. I guess I will wait and see.
Quote from virgintrader:
Did so..no harm no fowl
Go GROW!
Nicely done guys!
Re: Re: Re: GROW
Quote from PointOne:
Looks like I picked the wrong night to go out for a beer!
Here's my hi-tech neural-net datamining hotlist review (from last saturday):
Why Go with GROW
Quote from TimDog:
Just wondering what tipped u guys off to get into GROW?
__________________
Hey guys,
I often come across bruno stocks that have already started to run its course.
I mean i know how to spot and trade the bruno stocks when it's at its first
stage... coming up from 20,25 level of fast stoch... and coming up to reach the
50 level....
but what do you guys do when you are a little late to one... when the fast stoch
is already at 60s and 70s, and sometimes 80s (if the slow stoch hasn't followed
up yet)..... would you still play this? or would you give up on them because you
dont want to risk getting in one too late and have the stock come down?
or would you get in now and wait to see if it turns into a rocket trade.... by
watching the slow stoch flatline at around 80?
NVEC
Quote from OpenTrader:
I am curious what you folks are thinking about NVEC? It still has rank, but I am considering removing it from my universe. Mistake? It has been in dryup and getting tighter and tighter but for some reason I feel like it has lost it's rank potential. I guess I will wait and see.
__________________
I ate way too much tonight. sandwich, bread bowl, chips, sundae etc. In the
spirit of feeling overstuffed I pulled up a chart that looks similar to GROW.
Hopefully this stock has lost enough weight, and is ready to run to the top.
Below is WTW. FTT? Comments appreciated like always.
- Monkman
RATE news from Briefing.com:
06:17 RATE Bankrate profiled in New America section of IBD (43.28 )
IBD reports Bankrate collects data on interest rates from thousands of banks
around the country. Users of Bankrate's site compare rates for loans or deposit
accounts in hundreds of local mkts. They can also read articles about banking
and other topics. Online calculators help users weigh their options. Advertisers
pay for display ads on the Web site. Banks listed in rate tables also pay each
time a user clicks for more information on their product. They're willing to pay
because site users aren't merely browsing. The vast majority of users are in the
mkt for one of the more than 300 financial products listed on the site.
Advertisers will pay a lot more to reach a user who is actively looking to
borrow or deposit money. Overall, only about 10% of users come to Bankrate
through paid ads on search sites. Compare that with other Internet cos that pay
millions for online and TV ads.
RATE is a DU stock today.
Interestingly, this article was in the Monday edition of IBD almost two weeks
ago, it has since fallen off their IBD 100 list I think. I only buy the Monday
edition, so it may have come back on.
I watched this thing a week ago Monday as the IBD highlighted stocks with buy
recommendations often take off on Mondays.
Still waiting...
perhaps a delayed reaction.
Quote from Huskydog:
RATE news from Briefing.com:
06:17 RATE Bankrate profiled in New America section of IBD (43.28 )
IBD reports Bankrate collects data on interest rates from thousands of banks around the country. Users of Bankrate's site compare rates for loans or deposit accounts in hundreds of local mkts. They can also read articles about banking and other topics. Online calculators help users weigh their options. Advertisers pay for display ads on the Web site. Banks listed in rate tables also pay each time a user clicks for more information on their product. They're willing to pay because site users aren't merely browsing. The vast majority of users are in the mkt for one of the more than 300 financial products listed on the site. Advertisers will pay a lot more to reach a user who is actively looking to borrow or deposit money. Overall, only about 10% of users come to Bankrate through paid ads on search sites. Compare that with other Internet cos that pay millions for online and TV ads.
RATE is a DU stock today.
Review for Thursday 22 Feb 2007:
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR
NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for today:
FTEK MEH MIKR NVEC OMRI RATE SIRF
At any rate I gave RATE a shot
in @ 44.20
Hey guys,
I often come across bruno stocks that have already started to run its course.
I mean i know how to spot and trade the bruno stocks when it's at its first
stage... coming up from 20,25 level of fast stoch... and coming up to reach the
50 level....
but what do you guys do when you are a little late to one... when the fast stoch
is already at 60s and 70s, and sometimes 80s (if the slow stoch hasn't followed
up yet)..... would you still play this? or would you give up on them because you
dont want to risk getting in one too late and have the stock come down?
or would you get in now and wait to see if it turns into a rocket trade.... by
watching the slow stoch flatline at around 80?
example: GIGM GROW SYX SNCR
==========================
getting out of XING today. Holding DTLK and COGO
Also just bought PCCC and OMRI today
by the way.. good job on the GROW trade guys
Best trade yet - in Grow - 41.3 yesterday - out today 47.16 - 14%
All smiles!!! Thank you everyone for this great resource.
Let's see how RATE does now.
in RATE @ 43.87
This morning, I bot:
300 RATE at 44.29
500 SIRF at 31.51
Still holding 700 GRRF.
- Huskydog
Morning everyone!
Got stopped out of GRRF $280 pizza money. Out with GROW $46.
Bought
RATE $43.90, PCCC $18.52 and ATHR $27.34 (an old HE stock). So far these ain't
looking too pretty.
Gotta go to work now!
Have a great day!
Out of RATE at 42.88. I hate buying these things when they gap up, even a
little bit. Just another FBO I guess.
- Huskydog
Stopped out of RATE for a 3% loss.
Looking for the next bus...
Stopped out of SIRF at $31.00. Tough day to be long, I guess.
- Huskydog
WTW
Quote from Monkman:
Below is WTW. FTT? Comments appreciated like always.
__________________
I also got stopped out of RATE. When I use to trade IBD, new high breakouts,
I would utilize a maximum 7% stop loss. And I got stopped out a lot.
I am starting to think that buying Hershey stocks that are close to new fresh
highs, breaking out of bases, is more risky then buying earlier in a base
pattern, even if it is off the right side of a channel, given our maximum 2%
stop loss rule (which I utilize). It takes a lot of volume to break into new
highs at times, and it seems to get very volatile right at that point. It has
happened enough times to me that I have started thinking about limiting my
shares by 1/2 when getting in to those trades.
Rate today was a perfect example.
Rate
RATE previous day close: $38.78
RATE Open today: $42.50
Gap: 9.5%
In Journal I, we discussed the large gap open stocks and how to avoid these big
losses when a 'gap and fill' takes place. Hopefully, today's lesson with RATE
reinforced this rule created in Journal I.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Rate
This is incorrect. RATE closed yesterday, 2/21/07, at 43.28. Today, RATE
opened at 44.00. The gap up was 0.72 or 1.66%. It was a FBO, and a bummer at
that, but not an excess gapup mistake.
- Huskydog
Quote from Spydertrader:
RATE previous day close: $38.78
RATE Open today: $42.50
Gap: 9.5%
In Journal I, we discussed the large gap open stocks and how to avoid these big losses when a 'gap and fill' takes place. Hopefully, today's lesson with RATE reinforced this rule created in Journal I.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Rate
Quote from Huskydog:
This is incorrect. RATE closed yesterday, 2/21/07, at 43.28. Today, RATE opened at 44.00. The gap up was 0.72 or 1.66%. It was a FBO, and a bummer at that, but not an excess gapup mistake.
__________________
I don't know what kind of an influence this will have on how a stock trades
because I don't pay a lot of attention to the short interests, but the action on
RATE today made me curious.
Shortsqueeze.com has the short interest on RATE @ 33.48% of float, which seems
like an awful lot to me. Additionally the short interest has been reduced by 15%
over the last period.
Unfortunately, I don't know what their reporting period is, a day, week or
month, as I don't subscribe to the site and there's not a lot of info about
their data available if you don't subscribe.
They also list the days to cover at 11.5.
perhaps there are some here who pay more attention to short interest that could
add some info?
Floppies
4shared.com removed the files from their server. As a result, I had to upload
the floppies code once again. If anyone still needs the code, you can
download the floppies here.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
Morning everyone!
Got stopped out of GRRF $280 pizza money. Out with GROW $46.
Bought
RATE $43.90, PCCC $18.52 and ATHR $27.34 (an old HE stock). So far these ain't looking too pretty.
Gotta go to work now!
Have a great day!
Hershey Backtest
As some of you are aware, I have developed a script that auto-trades the
'beginner method' outlined at the end of Journal 1. Due to limited intraday data
(from IB and then IQFeed), this auto-trade method has meant that I have had to
search for dry up stocks in one EOD database and then auto-trade in another.
Amibroker recently released a new plug-in for IQFeed that allows up to 8 months
of 1 minute data to be imported.
This has meant that I can finally combine my search for dry up stocks (based on
Spydertrader's revised Chartscript that only uses 3 months for DU Volume instead
of the original six) and my intraday trading script.
This has also meant that I have been able to BACKTEST the methodology, based on
the most current Final Universe. The final universe hasn't changed THAT much
over the past 6 months, so I believe that a backtest on this list would be
representative of the performance on the actual 'moving' universe over time.
The image below is the backtest report from Amibroker. Settings were:
Initial Equity = 10000.
Margin = 50% (as per IB)
Commission/share = 0.005 (as per IB)
Buy signals are as per usual.
Sell is next day on open if FRV not reached, stop loss of 2%, profit target of
10% or 4 days have elapsed (actually 1800 mins).
No slippage is included, so performance will be slightly less than listed.
Position size is based on risking 1.5% of equity per trade.
The AFL script used to run the backtest is attached.
Re: Hershey Backtest
Quote from mischief:
As some of you are aware
thought I would share my Final Universe with y'all.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...d=show&disp=RNA
I enter stocks on an EOD basis AFTER the BO has occured. I'm not annotating buys
and sells, however, I will be daily updating the charts of stocks that I own.
the tite of my list is "Hershey stocks"
__________________
This world is not my home, i'm just passing through.
Bot 1100 BITS at 11.8373. Still holding 700 GRRF.
- Huskydog
CHDX forming an FTT over the last 2 days?
Bot 100 BITS at 11.74. Now have 1200 at 11.8291 ave.
Quote from Huskydog:
Bot 1100 BITS at 11.8373. Still holding 700 GRRF.
- Huskydog
mischief
Outstanding work, in my own hand testing I have similar results.
Do you have a equity plot?
Once again first rate.
GS19
Did anyone catch this move in NVEC? The pace of volume is really picking up,
but the stock has already moved 6.4% I don't have a position in it, but I remain
in interested observer.
- Huskydog
In NVEC at $22.05
In hindsight, I may have jumped the gun a little. It did pass FRV however by the EOD. Let's see what next week brings!
Sold the BITS at EOD when it looked like it would go negative. Upon reviewing
Ross' rule from Journal 1, I should have exited sooner. Lesson learned.
Sold the GRRF at .76.
Have a good weekend.
- Huskydog
Here's the equity curve from Amibroker
Quote from mischief:
Here's the equity curve from Amibroker
__________________
ININ review
I know people made money on ININ but I was never comfortable with the revised
long TL or the reasons given for it. Although my chart is obviously annotated
with the benefit of hindsight it is interesting to me as it shows the power of
the original TLs, FTT signal and volume.
The gap down looks like it was making up for lost time - as if the price in the
yellow circle was the exact mirror image of what it "should" have been
doing.
Comments welcome, let me know if this is useful (or unnecessary).
That takes the cake and is an outright lie. Clearly you haven't actually read
the post, and anyone who follows the link will see that. Spydertrader said
nothing of the sort. In fact the quote you pasted was from someone else
entirely.
Congratulations, you are the first person I am going to ignore. I now see why
you have changed handles so many times. I imagine it is because you have been
set to ignore so many times that nobody responds to you.
Quote from T280:
Spytrader quote about Jack from Trade2win forum:
Spydertrader
Actually he just quit trading because he couldn't make any of it work. In fact, you posted to it.
- Spydertrader
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/arc...hp/t-13625.html
Review for Saturday 24 Feb 2007:
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR
NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for Monday,
as of today, Saturday:
DTLK GRRF IAAC MIKR RATE SIM XING
My own analysis based on NN, and cycles, MACD and Channels. Daily chart only.
Posted to elicit discussion.
DTLK's cycle low occured 4 days ago. Mid-range of channel. MACD negative. 50:50
on this one.
GRRF's cycle low occured on Feb 7 or Feb 9 depending on the indicator. We appear
to still be in the upswing. Upper end of channel. MACD positive. 50:50 on this
one.
IAAC's cycle low just occured. We may be about to start an upswing. Upper end of
channel, but it looks like a break out. MACD is positive. I like this one.
MIKR doesn't easily fit the mold of cycles. It has been on an upswing since 31
Jan. I have it labelled as a possible cycle upswing start on 26 Jan. The only
thing that worries me is the gap up from a few days ago. I'm sure there is news
on this, but I haven't checked. Middle of channel. MACD sort of positive.
RATE's last cycle low was on 23 Jan. I'm not sure what to make of the chart
based on cycles. It looks toppy, with a possible cycle high put in. MACD
negative. Kissing the lower end of the channel. Classic buy on touch of moving
average, stop below lower end of channel.
SIM's cycle low just occured. It looks like an upswing is about to begin. MACD
positive. Upper range of channel.
XING's cycle low occured 7 days ago. Beautiful stock. While I think it certainly
could go higher, it does appear to be long into its upswing. MACD sort of
positive. At upper end of channel. Powerful looking chart.
In conclusion, it looks like a number of the above began their moves a few to
several days ago.
If forced to choose, as of today, Saturday, I would choose IAAC and SIM to focus
on, followed by GRRF. DTLK's candlebar on Friday looks bad. I don't understand
MIKR's gap up a few days ago without filling, at least according to wealth-lab.
RATE's last 4 candlebars look terrible. XING? Well, I think it is a powerful
looking chart. I've gotten burned before with other stocks buying at the upper
end of a channel when the signal occured days ago, so I'll just wait for the
next time.
Note: All of the above is based heavily on Ehler's work as well as others. A
cycle low does not necessarily mean a price low in my discussion above, i.e. the
indicator can lead or lag. In my case they lead slightly for some of our
universe stocks, but not all, and not for long, i.e. degradation of parameters
requiring re-training.
Good analysis John.
I've often thought that Hurst / Millard, etc. would fit well with this
methodology.
MIKR had a takeover offer, so there's not going to be much tradeable volatility
there.
Quote from T280:
Make sure you read all of it and explain Jack being banned and using various handles...
Quote from T280:
Or perhaps it will be easier to ignore that as well
Quote from mischief:
Good analysis John.
I've often thought that Hurst / Millard, etc. would fit well with this methodology.
MIKR had a takeover offer, so there's not going to be much tradeable volatility there.
A Reminder
Should anyone find a particular post off topic, or believes a specific
contributor fails to provide information pertinent to the discussion, I
encourage liberal (and frequent) use of the ET "Ignore" and "Complain" features
in an effort to respond to inappropriate commentary. Adherence to the above
guidelines should allow for an open and friendly discourse and foster an
environment conducive to learning.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from mischief:
Here's the equity curve from Amibroker
Palinuro,
I'm running a slightly different script at the moment, which was a 'kludge' that
overcame the limitations of IB's 30 day backfill. In essence, I was finding dry
up stocks on an EOD database and then putting these into a watch list on my
intraday database. Because I didn't have enough data to truly calculate dry up
volume, I was using the previous days volume of stocks in dry up as a proxy.
This has worked pretty well.
However, I recently switched to IQFeed for data and on Friday Ambroker recently
a new plug-in for IQFeed that allows up to 8 months worth of 1 minute backfill.
This has allowed me to remove the kludges and calculate dry up and intraday
signals in the one script.
I've traded live since 1 December, with some hiccups along the way. My results
are a Win percentage of around 48% with a profit factor of approx. 2.2.
I've created a backtestable version of my 'kludge' script and over the next
couple of days am going to compare the backtest results to reality to see how
much slippage I am getting. I'll post the results if you like.
However, a backtest of the posted script from 1 Dec 2006 gives a win percentage
of 55% with a profit factor of 2.73. Considering I've missed some good trades
due to stuff ups, I'd say that my reality and the backtest are pretty close.
Of course I've missed some bad trades as well, but a missing a bad trade has
avoided a 2% loss, whereas missing a good trade has cost me up to a 10% profit
target..
Backtest questions
Quote from mischief:
Here's the equity curve from Amibroker
Hi Pointone,
The problem is (and I know this from my production trades), is that you quickly
run out of margin.
By way of example (remembering all trades are entered with a 2% stop loss).
25k equity
20.00 entry price.
Risk/share = 20 * .02 = 0.40
1% equity risk = 250
2% equity risk = 500
5% equity risk = 1250
10% equity risk = 2500
Shares to buy (& position size)
1% = 250/0.4 = 625 = 625 * 20 = 12500
2% = 500/0.4 = 1250 = 125 * 20 = 25000
5% = 1250/0.4 = 3125 = 3125*20 = 62500
10% = 2500/0.4 = 6250 * 20 = 125000
Reg T (overnight) margins are max 50%. This means that I couldn't hold a 5% or
10% equity risk overnight. I couldn't even do a 10% equity risk on an intraday
basis.
At the moment, in my real trading, I am risking 1.5% per trade. This allows me
to enter multiple trades (up to 3 full positions and 1 with reduced size) and
still be able to hold overnight.
The holding in cash is simply a reflection of not getting any entry signals,
perhaps due to the wider market tanking.
I have coded and backtested a script that shorts stocks as well, which provides
superior net profits and uses your equity more efficiently, but it has much
greater drawdowns. Admittedly, this is only backtested over the last 5 months (a
bull market) so may be different in a bear market. You may also not get fills as
easily as in a backtest because of the uptick rule. If anyone has 1 minute data
for 2001 - 2002 I'd be happy to backtest :-)
All In
Quote from mischief:
Hi Pointone,
The problem is (and I know this from my production trades), is that you quickly run out of margin.
...
At the moment, in my real trading, I am risking 1.5% per trade. This allows me to enter multiple trades (up to 3 full positions and 1 with reduced size) and still be able to hold overnight.
Ok, ran a couple of tests. I've zipped the backtest results and attached
them.
They were:
'Standard' 1.5% risk, no reduced position size allowed, 50% margin.
3% risk, reduced position size allowed, 50% margin
5% risk, 25% margin requirement (to simulate a larger account with a quarantined
portion of equity allocated to this method).
As you would expect profit factor and percentage win rate didn't move that much,
since we are in essence taking the same trades on each backtest. Clearly
drawdown and end net profit did change though with the greater risk.
The third backtest actually highlights something I recall reading in one of
acrary's posts. To boost returns without increasing drawdowns, increase the
risk/trade on a portion of your equity. He stated that you need to run some
tests to work out the ratios, but this (single) test seems to bear it out.
One last test I did was to double the account size, then pull back to 2.5% risk
with 50% margin to simulate the same dollar per trade risk.
The 5%, 10k, 25% margin account returned a net profit of 76671 with 56% winners
and a profit factor of 3.63 and a system drawdown of 4965 or 27.48%
The 2.5% 20k 50% margin account returned a net profit of 61736 with 56% winners
and a profit factor of 3.63 and a system drawdown of 4249 or 15.71%
It's a fascinating exercise, since you'd almost expect the numbers to be the
same, or at least similar. For an extra 4965 - 4249 = 716 in drawdown, you boost
returns by 76671 - 61736 = 14935
In percentage terms:
716/4249 = 16.8%
14935/61736 = 24.2%
Of course, you'd need to test this exhaustively, but it is still food for
thought. Thanks for sending me down this path....
Quote from virgintrader:
Morning everyone!
Got stopped out of GRRF $280 pizza money. Out with GROW $46.
Bought
RATE $43.90, PCCC $18.52 and ATHR $27.34 (an old HE stock). So far these ain't looking too pretty.
Gotta go to work now!
Have a great day!
Hi all,
I am new to this board and also new to Jack Hershey's method.
I spent all day reading Journal I and Journal II. Really interesting
approach.
I tried to follow the step-by-step guide in Journal I.
And from the stocktable.com, my initial universe (eps 90/rs 80) came up with 93
stocks.
ACOR ACY AFAM AGYS ALXA AMR AMSF ANAD ANGN ANST AUY AVT BDC BFNB BITS BKC BLUD
BW CAL CEN CHDX CHL CLMT COH CYNO ECHO EGLE EMS ESCH FALC FTEK GCOM GEO GHDX
GIGM GMTC GROW HRZ IBAS ICON IMKTA IO IVAC IWOV KFI KOP KRSL LFC LINE LTBG LXU
MEH NCTY NETC NPSN NTL NUAN NXTM OMRI OMTR ONNN PAAS PAY PNSN QMAR RBAK RICK SCA
SIMO SPAR STLD STP SVNT SWHC SYNL TBWC TDG TIE TLEO TNCC TPX TRT TTEC TWIN UCTT
UUU VASC VDSI VRGY VSNT WHIT WITS ZUMZ
Then I ran Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0, the scan had
20 results. After filtering out by the float, I had 15 stocks left:
ACOR ALXA ANAD BITS CHDX FTEK GHDX GMTC GROW MEH OMRI OMTR RICK SPAR UCTT
Then I tried to run Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0 on these 15
stocks to further narrow down the list. But no resutlts were generated. (I am
supposed to run Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0 on the dry up results). So now I
am stucked. I am not sure whether this is expected or I did something wrong.
Can anybody more experienced tell me how to cope with it.
thanks,
Frank
Quote from laketrader:
Hi all,
I am new to this board and also new to Jack Hershey's method.
I spent all day reading Journal I and Journal II. Really interesting
approach.
I tried to follow the step-by-step guide in Journal I.
And from the stocktable.com, my initial universe (eps 90/rs 80) came up with 93 stocks.
ACOR ACY AFAM AGYS ALXA AMR AMSF ANAD ANGN ANST AUY AVT BDC BFNB BITS BKC BLUD BW CAL CEN CHDX CHL CLMT COH CYNO ECHO EGLE EMS ESCH FALC FTEK GCOM GEO GHDX GIGM GMTC GROW HRZ IBAS ICON IMKTA IO IVAC IWOV KFI KOP KRSL LFC LINE LTBG LXU MEH NCTY NETC NPSN NTL NUAN NXTM OMRI OMTR ONNN PAAS PAY PNSN QMAR RBAK RICK SCA SIMO SPAR STLD STP SVNT SWHC SYNL TBWC TDG TIE TLEO TNCC TPX TRT TTEC TWIN UCTT UUU VASC VDSI VRGY VSNT WHIT WITS ZUMZ
Then I ran Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0, the scan had
20 results. After filtering out by the float, I had 15 stocks left:
ACOR ALXA ANAD BITS CHDX FTEK GHDX GMTC GROW MEH OMRI OMTR RICK SPAR UCTT
Then I tried to run Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0 on these 15 stocks to further narrow down the list. But no resutlts were generated. (I am supposed to run Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0 on the dry up results). So now I am stucked. I am not sure whether this is expected or I did something wrong.
Can anybody more experienced tell me how to cope with it.
thanks,
Frank
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Thank you for your quick reply.
I think that it would take a long time to really digest the
information. I am just so excited and jump to the hands-on
part.
Quote from bundlemaker:
It looks like you're on the right track. The last scan, the one for DU, won't necessarily produce stocks to trade every single day. SOme days will have several candidates, some days none.
btw- I'm glad you made such good progress, but Journals 1 & 2 are comprised of almost 2,000 pages I believe. It will take you several months to really absorb that material. There is much to be gleaned, I hope you enjoy the journey.
EDIT: I just realized you may already be missing some important pieces. DId you also filter by average volume and positive EPS?
Thank for your reminder. After the average volume and positive EPS filter,
now I have 7 stocks.
CHDX FTEK GROW MEH OMRI SPAR UCTT
Quote from bundlemaker:
It looks like you're on the right track. The last scan, the one for DU, won't necessarily produce stocks to trade every single day. SOme days will have several candidates, some days none.
btw- I'm glad you made such good progress, but Journals 1 & 2 are comprised of almost 2,000 pages I believe. It will take you several months to really absorb that material. There is much to be gleaned, I hope you enjoy the journey.
EDIT: I just realized you may already be missing some important pieces. DId you also filter by average volume and positive EPS?
Welcome
Quote from laketrader:
I spent all day reading Journal I and Journal II.
__________________
A Few to Watch
I plan to keep an eye on these three on Monday (just in case
):
ELOS, TWLL and OMRI
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from Spydertrader:
I plan to keep an eye on these three on Monday (just in case
ELOS, TWLL and OMRI
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from johnpinochet:
I very well may have ELOS and TWLL in my special list of stocks that I've mentioned previously (346 so far), but in the event I don't, what led you to them.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Also, would you be able to comment on my observations about the DU3 stocks for Monday 26 Feb 2007?
DTLK GRRF IAAC MIKR RATE SIM XING
Quote from johnpinochet:
In particular my conclusion to focus on:
IAAC and SIM followed by GRRF.
Quote from johnpinochet:
I believe my DU3 list is correct.
Quote from johnpinochet:
I'd like confirmation that my decision to focus on the above 3 is on the right track, i.e. would you focus on those 3 as well, if you had to choose from the DU3 list above?
__________________
Re: Re: A Few to Watch
[QUOTE]Quote from johnpinochet:
In particular my conclusion to focus on:
IAAC and SIM followed by GRRF.
John
I have the same focus for IAAC and SIM. However GRRF does not look like a
possible trade to me.
b
John
I have the same.
In addition, using Spyder's alternative sort and cull I have the following
showing up with the required rank and in DU:
AVR GMKT NURO PRXI
Quote from johnpinochet:
Review for Saturday 24 Feb 2007:
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for Monday, as of today, Saturday:
DTLK GRRF IAAC MIKR RATE SIM XING
RATE commentry
Here is my commentry on RATE based on the volume gaussians.
I am anticipating a turn to the upside however, if we get increasing red volume,
the current non dominant downtrend might have more legs and might be a good
short.
Sorry, I don't have space to the right. IQFeed historical data does not have EOD
for the 23rd, and QuoteTracker is not displaying the chart correctly with Yahoo
data. This chart is from wealth-lab.
Channels
For those that have had difficulty drawing channels, bundlemaker put together
this excellent video. It's based around drawing channels on a 5 minute chart,
but the same principles apply to daily charts.
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
- Spydertrader
__________________
channel video
Excellent is an understatement. The generosity of those who contribute here make my sincere thank-you seem inadequate
The beauty of hindsight; looks like I was a day too early before the tipping
point on RATE; i'll let the market dictate...
IAAC Stoch>50; OMRI looks like it gonna bounce RTL...one more day?
Here is OMRI on RTL...tipping point?
Anyone else experiencing difficulties gathering data from Yahoo finance
website?
I haven't been able to get any data more recent than the 21st of feb. thought it
was just a glitch and would have been fixed over the weekend. not so
I use this source to run wealthlab, so it sucks just a bit
Quote from rickylc:
Anyone else experiencing difficulties gathering data from Yahoo finance website?
I haven't been able to get any data more recent than the 21st of feb. thought it was just a glitch and would have been fixed over the weekend. not so
I use this source to run wealthlab, so it sucks just a bit
Re: RATE commentry
Quote from bi9foot:
Here is my commentry on RATE based on the volume gaussians.
I am anticipating a turn to the upside however, if we get increasing red volume, the current non dominant downtrend might have more legs and might be a good short.
Sorry, I don't have space to the right. IQFeed historical data does not have EOD for the 23rd, and QuoteTracker is not displaying the chart correctly with Yahoo data. This chart is from wealth-lab.
only got in 100 shares of omri before it ran away, i gotta stop screwing around with the limit orders ><
In with OMRI $36.05. Have a good day guys (and gals).
Quote from rickylc:
Anyone else experiencing difficulties gathering data from Yahoo finance website?
__________________
For those trading the Bruno R setup could you help me out with the volume
levels that you are using for entry.
Here is an example : Say the indicators are setup for a bruno r and everything
is looking good in terms of the channel location. Price increased the previous
day on 100000 shares which is relatively low (close to DU but not quite)but
slightly higher than the previous day. For entry what level of volume would you
look for to enter the next day. Would it be enough volume to just make it past
the previous 100000, or would it be breakout volume levels of something like 3
times the previous day (300000). The reason I ask about using breakout volume is
b/c the volume has been low (close to DU) over the last few days, however it
seems that some people are entering a bruno r play when the volume levels are
still low. Im confused on which meathod to use. Any help on this would be great.
TIA
Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from Spydertrader:
I plan to keep an eye on these three on Monday (just in case
ELOS, TWLL and OMRI
- Spydertrader
OMRI was a bruno play for me on friday... entered at 35.25
anyone still long this NVEC? it's still going up like a space shuttle hehe
what other stocks are people in today?
in ftek at 28.70
Re: Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from bdolnik:
Since OMRI is doing so well and was not on the DU list would you mind commenting on exactly why you were watching it today?
__________________
Quote from TimDog:
For those trading the Bruno R setup could you help me out with the volume levels that you are using for entry.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from Spydertrader:
[B]OMRI formed an FTT on Friday. FTT's mark a change in sentiment.
Re: Re: Re: Re: A Few to Watch
Quote from bdolnik:
Ok, I've been reading quite a bit about FTT's so I get that, and it's pretty clear to see now that I'm looking for it. Does the fact that it hit your blue uptrend also add any weight to this? It seems to me as though it would. Thanks again for all your unselfish contributions over the last couple of YEARS!!
__________________
Re: Channels
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those that have had difficulty drawing channels, bundlemaker put together this excellent video. It's based around drawing channels on a 5 minute chart, but the same principles apply to daily charts.
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
- Spydertrader
Re: Channels
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those that have had difficulty drawing channels, bundlemaker put together this excellent video. It's based around drawing channels on a 5 minute chart, but the same principles apply to daily charts.
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yahoo altered the format in which they provide data. Wealth-Lab hasn't yet created a 'fix' for this 'new' method of data delivery yet.
- Spydertrader
Quote from gpzany:
this is probably the reason why the Hersheytrader 1.0.0 software is not picking up financial data and quotes correctly... I would be grateful if someone could confirm this...
__________________
OMRI
Nice Trades today folks.
- Spydertrader
Chart Update
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
While I cannot confirm in the normal sense, I would assume the same.
- Spydertrader
Re: Channels
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those that have had difficulty drawing channels, bundlemaker put together this excellent video. It's based around drawing channels on a 5 minute chart, but the same principles apply to daily charts.
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Channels
Quote from TimDog:
Excellent video, hope there is more to come!
Re: Re: Re: Channels
Quote from virgintrader:
Thanks Bundlemaker!
The thing i wanna tatto on me forehead:
"don't let expecting lead to believing!".
My DU's for 2morrow: CTRN GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC MED RATE and SYX
Spydertrader,
Looking at your chart of OMRI on Sunday, and now looking at RATE, today,
Tuesday, I'm wondering if I have labeled an FTT correctly?
John
Quote from johnpinochet:
Spydertrader,
Looking at your chart of OMRI on Sunday, and now looking at RATE, today, Tuesday, I'm wondering if I have labeled an FTT correctly?
John
, but the FTT on
your chart looks like it formed 3 days ago (long channel) at the 44 level. You
have labeled where you anticipate a break-out (short).
You're not Spyder!There are a lot of people with relationships to one another on this thread,however.That's good from a reinforcement perspective.
__________________
eat all,sup all pay nowt.hear all,see all say nowt. and if Thee ever have to do
'owt for nowt,always do it for thee sen.
HOly moly! OMRI tanked! so did
the whole market!
bah something about a sell off in china ><
Quote from virgintrader:
HOly moly!
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Only thing green on my list is ELOS. Sorry, I was a day early on that one.
- Spydertrader
smarty pants! Question for u:
Quote from virgintrader:
Spydie...I was looking at that when you posted and passed on it
__________________
hey guys, anyone here trade the Icebergs?
i know most of us are familiar with rockets and bruno... and i trade these very
often.. with emphasis on bruno.
However, i was wondering if anyone have any experience with the Icerberg setup,
and maybe could share your experience trading this particular method?
Hey spyder, i understand you try not to risk more than 2% of your total
account size in any single trade.... and by using the risk calculator i was able
to calculate how many shares i should buy if i set my risk % of total equity for
a single trade to 2%, and set my initial stop in a stock at 2% (since i'm using
the beginner method, where 2% is the initial stop, then 5% as trailing stop)
and since my account size is 40,000... if i set the total risk of a single trade
to 2%, the most i lose is $800, which is great, but the shares i buy for a
single stock is about $40,000 in value.... i do have a margin account... but
this risk calculation seems to assume that you're only trading 1 stock at a
time.... if i was using this amount to trade, i will be utilizing a lot of my
margin buying power, and MBTrading only allows a certain amount of overnight
buying power, which means at a time, i will only have about $98,000 of overnight
buying power, and if one stock takes about $40,000 of my trading equity (margin)
then i will only be able to hold 2 stocks at any given time...
Quote from chiefraven:
Hey spyder, i understand you try not to risk more than 2% of your total account size in any single trade.... and by using the risk calculator i was able to calculate how many shares i should buy if i set my risk % of total equity for a single trade to 2%, and set my initial stop in a stock at 2% (since i'm using the beginner method, where 2% is the initial stop, then 5% as trailing stop)
and since my account size is 40,000... if i set the total risk of a single trade to 2%, the most i lose is $800, which is great, but the shares i buy for a single stock is about $40,000 in value.... i do have a margin account... but this risk calculation seems to assume that you're only trading 1 stock at a time.... if i was using this amount to trade, i will be utilizing a lot of my margin buying power, and MBTrading only allows a certain amount of overnight buying power, which means at a time, i will only have about $98,000 of overnight buying power, and if one stock takes about $40,000 of my trading equity (margin) then i will only be able to hold 2 stocks at any given time...
Quote from chiefraven:
Hey spyder, i understand you try not to risk more than 2% of your total account size in any single trade....
__________________
oh i totally understand about the risk and i am planning to tread with
caution... risking only 2% of my total 40,000 capital is ok to me, since it's
only 800 bucks of my total capital. and i will make this 800 bucks as the max of
what i lose in a single trade.
but my question is, if i was to use this 2% risk for every trade.... given the
fact that with margin, i'm able to buy at about 4 stocks at one time....
mbtrading will not allow this simply because eventhough i have a certain amount
of margin power, i am still only able to have $98,000 invested in stocks at a
single time since that is roughly my overnight buying power.
which is what brought up this question since i would very much like to use this
2% risk as my stop, and would like to divide up my capital into 4 streams, where
i can have about 4 stocks at any given time, it seems with the overnight buying
power limit, i'm still very much limited
Quote from chiefraven:
which is what brought up this question since i would very much like to use this 2% risk as my stop, and would like to divide up my capital into 4 streams, where i can have about 4 stocks at any given time, it seems with the overnight buying power limit, i'm still very much limited
__________________
yeah i've definetly thought about that too... i guess i was just greedy 'cuz
i wanted to maximize profits and thought by allocating shares into 4 streams
where each only has a 0.5% risk of total capital is too conservative.... hehe
i'm too greedy..
i might set each one to 1 percent..
anyway, thanks spyder.
this is what i've decided to go with:
Initial Capital: $40,000
Money Streams: 4
each stream: $20,000 or $15,000 min:$60,000 to max: $80,000 total in equity
(20,000 - 40,000 margin debt) well within overnight power
for each stream, only risk 2% of each stream money
if all 4 reached 2% loss, then the account only suffers $1,200 = 3% of total
equity (min)
$1,600 = 4% of total equity (max)
initial stop loss set at 2%, then trailing stops at 5%
Ok, so I'm going to start following this thread a little more closely after
today's disaster. I've checked in infrequently and can see the lesson being
taught here by Jack through Spyder - teach a man to fish.
I've been doing kind of the same thing, but on a longer time frame, (weekly) so
my filter settings were a little different.
I currently use TC 2007 rather than stocktables as my filter, and have reset
them to fit the daily time frame as follows:
Price - 10-50
RS rank (vs SP-500) 80+
EPS rank (%change last quarter) 80+
Volume - 200,000 avg +
Earnings - positive
Float - 5-60 million
Insider owned - 25%+
Inst owned - 25% +
to get this list : CNS CRVL DRQ HITT TTEC TZOO VDSI VOL
Sound about right?
Qcharts for my daily charts, etc. IB is my broker.
My other motivation is that I found out recently that my workplace may soon be
sold, so I may need to have an "alternete source of income".
Let the games begin. We'll see what I can contribute..
Quote from Haroki:
...
My other motivation is that I found out recently that my workplace may soon be sold, so I may need to have an "alternete source of income".
Let the games begin. We'll see what I can contribute..
One good thing about today, 27 February 2007, with the DOW down 416.02, we
get to see for real what our stocks do under these conditions.
I don't know about anyone else, but after watching the bonds, and seeing what
the S&P futures were doing pre-market, I elected to go to sleep rather than buy
(or sell) stocks.
I had my system running all night and as you would expect, no trades were
entered....
Shorts would've done very well I imagine.
The single trade I placed today emphasises the importance of sticking to a
system
I had a single and entered a trade in DTLK on Monday. The stock 'just' failed to
reach FRV, so I debated leaving the trade on, or closing it out on the next open
(as my rules required).
I stuck to my guns and entered an 'OPG' market sell order. I was filled at 9.15,
which was the opening price. After that, DTLK dropped like an absolute stone.
Two lessons:
i) Stick to the rules
ii) OPG trades work..
Quote from johnpinochet:
I don't know about anyone else, but after watching the bonds, and seeing what the S&P futures were doing pre-market, I elected to go to sleep rather than buy (or sell) stocks.
Quote from johnpinochet:
I don't know your details, but please be cautious. The above sounds like a recipe for disaster.
How are you guys going to trade tomorrow after such a monstrous drop today?
wait and sit on the sideline to see how the market recovers to get a better idea
of whether this is really a change in the trend?
There's only 1 dryup stock IAAC for tomrrow, and it's not one that i am
particular happy about... will sit out on it.... however, due to the big drop
today, there are A LOT of bruno trades setting up for a run....
is anyone considering these bruno trades? i wonder how they will work out after
the crazy market day we just had today.
what do you think spyder?
Dang, what a day to miss. I decided to go for a hike today.
I hope you folks made a bunch on the short side today.
Well Spydertrader, you and I both kind of have to eat crow on that big NVEC
move. We both pegged it as
worthless, then it goes and immediately makes an over 20% run in a couple of
days.
Quote from chiefraven:
How are you guys going to trade tomorrow after such a monstrous drop today?
Quote from virgintrader:
Spydie...I was looking at that when you posted and passed on it as it was right smack middle of my channel and the stoch/macd haven't crossed their buy points (0 of macd and >50 for fast stoch)on the day charts. So..
On the flip side; my shorts are panning out...so, i cant really complain. Recently short HWCC at $26 as it was sitting LTL with diverging indicators and volume.
have a great day guys gotta go to work!
A non Hershey respecting the FTT teachings (I think)...
RIMM and AAPL and ATI; I got RIMM attached.
Reason I shorted:
- was bumping LTL after analyst upgrade; the LTL was a covergence of short term,
medium term and LT lines.
- No volume follow thru; volume on downtrend as price was going up.
- Had a score of "2" i.e. Herd leaves
- It opened lower than the low of yesterday.
- Market was ugly
Were we lucky?
Will this be merely a continuation or is it a change in trend?
Quote from chiefraven:
what do you think spyder?
Quote from OpenTrader:
Well Spydertrader, you and I both kind of have to eat crow on that big NVEC move.
I'm happy to eat a little
humble pie as long as some folks made some nice coin off that move.__________________
CRZO
Will it break RTL?
"Don't let expecting lead to believing"...
Good luck to all of you tomorrow....but as Spydie would say...nuttin bout luck!
Short CRZO $30.80; short RIMM again $164.
Not thinking of keep RIMM past EOD; tight stop at day's high or close it before
I go to work!
good luck ya all..
looks like NVEC is still going to surge on... didn't even drop that much compare to the other stocks in yesterday's mayhem
I took PCCC - 30 min - good stochastics, macd x-over, vol above .22 but
decreasing.
also SHOO - actually gained yesterday, sto and macd look good on daily and 30
min vol at .32
this along with an increasing sp-500 got me long...
edit - shoo is on my imitial scan when i delete the insider and institutional
owned filter
PCCC volume going nowhere, falling below avg volume curve and falling
overall. Also right of channel line.
out for pizza money + 40$
Ascending triangle ?
increasing volume - yellow line is 2 period avg
volume on pace to exceed daily avg - appx 1.2-1.3 est
Spyder,
With a white background it is easier to download and print your charts. With a
gray background the contrast is less and harder to see channels and FFT. Great
Journal BTW
GS19
in and out of MED, not crazy about holding on positions today
Anyone going to the upcoming Tucson IBD meetings? I'd like to come out for one.
Quote from Traveler:
Anyone going to the upcoming Tucson IBD meetings? I'd like to come out for one.
IBD Meetings
Quote from Traveler:
Anyone going to the upcoming Tucson IBD meetings? I'd like to come out for one.
__________________
Bailed on SHOO after it went right of the channel - out for more pizza money
+32$
Only candidates I see for tomorrow would be:
LQDT - good last couple of 30 min bars with increasing volume
SNCR - up all day on low volume - .6 avg
IAAC good last couple of 30 min bars with increasing volume, but still very low
overall volume - .3 avg
TBH - none look too good though, may be a laundry day instead
Re: CRZO
Quote from virgintrader:
Will it break RTL?
"Don't let expecting lead to believing"...
Good luck to all of you tomorrow....but as Spydie would say...nuttin bout luck!
i see a ton of bruno setups for tomorrow...but i was wondering if anyone have
any experience with brunos that are in a downtren? bottom of channel though.
i know it's probably much safer to find one that is at the bottom of the up
channel, but how about some that are on the bottom of the down channel?
(possible retrace up to the upper line?)
how are people's experience trading these?
Thursday
To be honest, I don't particularly like anything for tomorrow from the long
side, but if I have to pick a few horses for the race ....
I plan to keep an eye on these ....
CCRT ININ TWLL NFLX SNCR
They certainly fall short of 'best in show' but it gives me something to do.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Agreed, makes me wish I was up on the futures trading..
Does FTTs apply outside to HE?
RIMM bounces off LTL..is it going to FBO?
Quote from Haroki:
Agreed, makes me wish I was up on the futures trading..
Since the question was asked earlier, I've given the matter more thought, and
based on intuition only I've decided to stand aside on stock trading for awhile.
I'm almost exclusively focused on the buy side with stocks, and I don't feel
right about buying here.
This could be a mistake, and I hesitate to bring the "gut" into play as we have
a very objective system here, but something doesn't feel right to me. I'll stop
there with my thoughts.
So for now, I'll be concentrating only on bond futures and the index futures for
a couple of weeks to a month.
When you get better at these methods (consistently profitable longs) you will
be able to trade short BUT that much much further down the road.
I encourage you guys to think of what your learning as a method of understanding
price behavior, rather then a set of trades set ups but it's very important to
learn everything about the tree before you can understand the entire forest.
Script is off again tonight. NQ down 31 points even before the opening bell. Here we go again..
I'm going to use this market to hone my skills in trading short.
The plan is to use the 5 minute and target stocks that are displaying any type
of rally. I will look for an FTT on the up channel and go short, using small
positions and/or paper trades until I get proficient.
It appears the time is ripe for this type of excercise.
rick
Quote from PointOne:
Last May gave me the heads up that it is good to be prepared to trade the short side. So I focus on futures.
Tyring to put the channels in action!
Quote from virgintrader:
Tyring to put the channels in action!
John,
I wouldn't give up on your stock trading right now. There has been a tremendous
amount of volatility this week in the equities markets. Such market conditions
happen from time to time, and now is an excellent opportunity to observe how
stocks behave under these conditions. Even if you do not trade any positions
right now, you can learn from the setups that will come in the next few days.
The benefit of this learning now is that you will be better prepared to trade
under more volatile market conditions in the future.
Another benefit of the recent selloff is that many of the stocks in our universe
will form bottoms and offer us long opportunities in the coming days. Keep doing
the work everyday so you are prepared to take advantage of these moves. The JH
method gives an excellent methodology to take advantage of these opportunities
through the use of channels, the PV relationship, etc.
Take NVEC for example. The stock was in a nasty downtrend for weeks.
Spydertrader even went so far as calling the stock a "piece of garbage". The
stock then pops up approximately 6.50 points in 2 days last week. My point is
simply that you never know when the next good trading opportunity is going to
arise. A trader must always be prepared to take advantage when the opportunity
reveals itself.
Just my 2 cents.
- Huskydog
Quote from johnpinochet:
Since the question was asked earlier, I've given the matter more thought, and based on intuition only I've decided to stand aside on stock trading for awhile. I'm almost exclusively focused on the buy side with stocks, and I don't feel right about buying here.
This could be a mistake, and I hesitate to bring the "gut" into play as we have a very objective system here, but something doesn't feel right to me. I'll stop there with my thoughts.
So for now, I'll be concentrating only on bond futures and the index futures for a couple of weeks to a month.
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Update
I have deleted the following stocks from the
Final Universe for failing to maintain rank.
ALY DXPE GIGM REDF STEC
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
"channels" extended from prior day...
Re: Final Universe Update
There go some old friends....
GIGM & REDF have been good to me over the months.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Final Universe Update
I have deleted the following stocks from the Final Universe for failing to maintain rank.
ALY DXPE GIGM REDF STEC
- Spydertrader
NVEC
Quote from Huskydog:
Spydertrader even went so far as calling the stock a "piece of garbage".
__________________
Question:
I seem to recall it was possible to add horizontal lines representing LDBU, DU,
FRV and Peak volume with Quotetracker...If i'm correct, how do i go about doing
that?
Thanks in advance.
J
Monday Chart
Below is a chart of GROW. What I am trying to figure out is if the March 1st
bar is a FTT.
Wealth-Lab Devloper
Anyone still having problems downloading web data while using Wealth-Lab
Developer?
This Article illustrates how to change the default setting from Yahoo to MSN
for Web Data.
Hope this helps.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Wealth-Lab Devloper
Quote from Spydertrader:
Anyone still having problems downloading web data while using Wealth-Lab Developer? This Article illustrates how to change the default setting from Yahoo to MSN for Web Data.
Hope this helps.
- Spydertrader
quotetracker horizontal lines
Quote from virgintrader:
Question:
I seem to recall it was possible to add horizontal lines representing LDBU, DU, FRV and Peak volume with Quotetracker...If i'm correct, how do i go about doing that?
Thanks in advance.
J
volume Gaussians
Since I am a very
inexperienced trader I have hesitated to post dumb questions or comments, but
after months of reading and struggles I just had an ahaa!!! Thank-you Big Moose.
the " ........left line is the line that
includes point 2 and Gaussians (volume increase / decrease cycles). " I hope
this is helpful to other struggling students.
Trying to figure out where the point 1-2-3's are on HWCC.
In the teal channel w/ the extension I see a failed b/o that appers to be
heading back into that channel. Is this a failed b/o or a channel extension or
both. Does this mean point 3 has been extended or have we just created a new
purple channel that forms a point 1? I am a bit confused, trying to get this
channel drawing with the p 1-2-3's down correctly. If anyone could help me, it
would help a lot.
Thanks,
Monkman
Trying to figure out where the point 1-2-3's are on HWCC.
In the teal channel w/ the extension I see a failed b/o that appers to be
heading back into that channel. Is this a failed b/o or a channel extension or
both. Does this mean point 3 has been extended or have we just created a new
purple channel that forms a point 1? I am a bit confused, trying to get this
channel drawing with the p 1-2-3's down correctly. If anyone could help me, it
would help a lot.
Thanks,
Monkman
HWCC
Quote from Monkman:
Trying to figure out where the point 1-2-3's are on HWCC.
__________________
had a good discussion of gaussians with monkman regarding my GROW chart. any comments/criticisms for this chart?
closeup of grey channel from previous chart
hey procast, do you talk to a few people who started the journal with you via
msn?
I'm pretty new to the journal, and am right now testing the beginner method,
bruno, rockets, and channels.... and at the moment, i'm talking to a few of the
people who are also at the same stage as me.... timdog and husky.
however, if you are ever free and dont mind chatting, i would love to have a
chance to speak to someone who is also progressing, but a few steps ahead of my
current group of friends.
Re: quotetracker horizontal lines
Quote from PointOne:
Adapt this for the volume pane:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...tal#post1328899
Re: Re: quotetracker horizontal lines
Quote from virgintrader:
Thanks Point One!
...im currently struggling to find Point one's. (no pun intended! )
I have a question for those using IB datafeed with Quotetracker. I seem to
have a problem with the volume numbers.
This is an example form today (3/5): SPAR volume showed 19800 on the quote page
right after the open. This seemed strange so i looked at the T&S. There had only
been three trades at this time which were 1500, 400, 200, for a total of 2100.
However on the quote page it was still saying 19800. So i changed the T&S to
display in absolute form which shows the gradual accumulation of each print. And
the numbers changed to 19200, 19600, 19800. So where did this first number of
19200 come from when the first print was only 1500. This seems to happen with a
number of the stocks but not all. As you can assume this is clearly affecting
the Vol% column signals that i am getting.
Is anyone else experiencing this too, or know how to change it.
Quote from TimDog:
I have a question for those using IB datafeed with Quotetracker. I seem to have a problem with the volume numbers.
Is anyone else experiencing this too, or know how to change it.
Quote from TimDog:
I have a question for those using IB datafeed with Quotetracker. I seem to have a problem with the volume numbers.
This is an example form today (3/5): SPAR volume showed 19800 on the quote page right after the open. This seemed strange so i looked at the T&S. There had only been three trades at this time which were 1500, 400, 200, for a total of 2100. However on the quote page it was still saying 19800. So i changed the T&S to display in absolute form which shows the gradual accumulation of each print. And the numbers changed to 19200, 19600, 19800. So where did this first number of 19200 come from when the first print was only 1500. This seems to happen with a number of the stocks but not all. As you can assume this is clearly affecting the Vol% column signals that i am getting.
Is anyone else experiencing this too, or know how to change it.
Quote from Monkman:
IQfeed is cheap and works well with quotetracker. It also works with wealth-lab developer if you use that. Very affordable solution if your not ready for qcharts.
- Monkman
Did SNCR indicate an entry signal today? According to the WealthLab scan and
chartscript, SNCR was in dryup, with a lower band dryup volume of about 57,000.
The lower band dryup volume was exceeded by 10:00 AM EST.
The MACD was positive and the Stochastic exceeded 80 at 11:00 AM EST, which was
the last part of the signal. FRV was exceeded by EOD, with a total volume of
250K being more than three times the dryup volume. So am I correct there was a
signal to enter SNCR today according to the Jack Hershey methodology at about
11:00 AM EST?
Quote from Retief:
Did SNCR indicate an entry signal today?
__________________
Thanks, Spyder. That's what I thought. There was significant price improvement over the close of the previous day at the time of the signal. However, SNCR fell back and closed only 0.02 better than the close of the previous day. After hours, though, it's up about 2%.
man, anyone in anything this morning?
It looked all nice, till now it's all dryed up
With this funky market, I've been sitting out, catching up on reading the
futures thread and practicing drawing channels..
A lot of what is discussed there is really helping out my channel drawing in RT
in stocks.
wasn't SNCR in dryup when we did the check on sunday? and it didn't exceed
dryup on monday. do we check previous day's dryup also for signals?
i did get into sncr, but for me it was more because the stochs was moving up
like a bruno.... although it started not all the way at the bottom but near the
30 or so range... also, it broke the short term down channel i had drawn and
hopefully will traverse back to the top of the intermediate up channel.
i'm also in BITS
I'd say SNCR looks ok right now. PRV says it'll exceed yesterdays by a bunch,
maybe end up around .8-.9 avg. Increasing price and increasing volume is
goooood.
FWIW - I would watch the SP-500 and watch for any hard breaks down in the last
hour, and watch SNCR on the 30 min. If you've owned it for a couple of days and
are up 5-8%, and the slow sto breaks down below 80, I'd say bail, in the
interest of capital preservation. Especially in this market... Remember, another
train will be a'comin'....
Bits looks ok too, but I'd be a little leery of owning it right now after that
HUUUUGE gap down a week ago. Also, daily volume is decreasing, but what that
means with the gap and giant volume.... I have no idea. Oops, I see right now
the slow sto on the 30 min is around 40, but the S&P is up ....
And just like that, SNCR and BITS take off....
i got out of BITS by mistake.. i wanted to set a stop order at 7 dollar since
i got in at 17.18... but instead i used a limit by accident and it got me out at
7.07
stupid mistake on my part .....
Quote from chiefraven:
i got out of BITS by mistake.. i wanted to set a stop order at 7 dollar since i got in at 17.18... but instead i used a limit by accident and it got me out at 7.07
stupid mistake on my part .....
should have labeled the BO when it went below the channel - my bad...
Ok, sorry I didn't post this in real time. I took a 1000 share position in
GRRF today. Please see the attached chart. The taping down channel may be
inaccurate. My concern was whether or not the stock actually traded down as far
as the tail indicates on the daily fractal. If it did, then my channel line is
incorrect. I bot the stock right after the open, with an average price of
11.198.
Volume is a concern to me on a play like this, but both stochastics are turning
up and the MACD histogram is sloping upward.
Comments are appreciated.
- Huskydog
nice trade on grrf, definitly look good at the end of yesterday
Agreed
good job on the trade.. i drew the channels differently though... i think
your tapes are fine, but it's even more important to have major intermediate
channels drawn in there since they have more weight than the short term
traverses you drawn on your chart.
here is the intermediate channels i've drawn.
Here is how thenewguy drew the channels for the more intermediate trends.
Please see attached.
- Huskydog
well depends on how far back into the chart you look at... mine eventhough
it's daily, only shows me the last 2 months, because i zoomed in on it, his
chart it seems to show all 5-6 months.... if someone has a daily chart that
shows only 4 months.. the channels is going to be different as well
it just depends on how far back into it you want to look.... for our 4 day moves
in a stock... i just chose the intermediate to be 3 months... if you l ook back
into journal 2 i think spyder's daily charts are similar
If you have a position today, are you going to hold or sell it just in case if the market tanks again tomorrow?
LOL -
have a position in GROW. And you betcha I'll be selling, or at the very least,
thinning, even if it 'looks' perfect for tomorrow.
I think my strategy will be to be VERY cautious right now. IF I go long on
anything, I'll sell at close/last hour if anything looks fishy in the slightest
bit. I'll look at the S&P also to check my equity vs 'the market' to see any
divergence. I'll thin any positions, even if they look great into the close.
Don't really see a situation whereby I'll hold a full position overnight right
now.
Right now, I'm thinking capital preservation. Another train will be along
tomorrow/next week.....
Most likely, I will be out at the EOD. I don't want to walk in tomorrow down
a point. I will start holding overnight positions once I see a few trades work
with follow thru to the next day.
- Huskydog
Sold the GRRF at 11.50 for a profit of $300. Still waiting to see
continuation from one day to the next.
- Huskydog
hey Haroki, what brought your attention to GROW? you got in as a bruno setup
right? but there are also tons of other bruno setups as well from our final
universe because of this big market drop, so why did you pick GROW and not the
others? is it because it's 30mini chart's stochs are all above 90 and all
intertwining on the top?
by the way, do you use msn messenger? we should chat sometime!
Quote from chiefraven:
hey Haroki, what brought your attention to GROW? you got in as a bruno setup right? but there are also tons of other bruno setups as well from our final universe because of this big market drop, so why did you pick GROW and not the others? is it because it's 30mini chart's stochs are all above 90 and all intertwining on the top?
by the way, do you use msn messenger? we should chat sometime!
Oops - chart
but there are also tons of other bruno setups as well from our final
universe because of this big market drop
The only stock showing that it is presently in dry up is MIKR. Unfortunately,
MIKR is in the process of being bought out so I think it should be removed from
the final universe.
Where are you finding quality stocks in dry up? I've scanned the final universe,
IBD weekend-in-review stocks having grades A & B, MSN top rated stocks, IBD 100
stocks, and some others and can't find any in dry up right now.
I show :
IAAC MED NVEC SIRF in DU3 scan
I would imagine not very many WOULD be in DU after all the heavy selling volume
the last few days.
No Brunos via Wealthlab
FYI -My Final Universe is as follows :
BITS COGO DTLK FTEK GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC ININ LQDT MED NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE SIM
SIRF SNCR SPAR SYX UCTT
Initial Universe is :
ABM ACLI AEIS AGP ARD BGC BKI BLUD BRKR BW CBT CHAP CHIC CHTT CMP CNS CROX CRVL
DAKT DTPI FTEK GEO GIGM GMR GROW HITT HIW HRZ IFS ILMN KNOT MTRX NTY NVTL OMG
PHLY PNCL PRXI PRXL SKX SPAR SWHC SYX TG TRAK TTEC TZOO UA UCTT UHCO VDSI VOL
VSEA ZOLL
And if you include 25 % institutional and insider you thin the above down to :
BRKR CNS CRVL GMR HITT TTEC TZOO VDSI VOL
So I run 3 quote sheets :
Final Universe - 21 stocks listed above
Initial Universe - 54 stocks listed above plus recent deletions from the FU -
ALY DXPE GIGM HWCC PRXI REDF STEC
Hotlist - stocks in DU, Bruno, and others of interest - usually not more than 15
or so..
That's all there is to it
Quote from Haroki:
Oops - chart
Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it
looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After
todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let
me know what you think.
- Monkman
Change the time frame to 1 hour if you're able to monitor some during the
day.
If not, daily is still good.
I used 30 min bars today to get into GROW 'cause I had a slow work day.
Thanks Haroki. You're right, IAAC MED NVEC and SIRF all show as in dry up. Of
those stocks only NVEC appears to be in an uptrend.
NVEC, however, has only 4.63 million shares outstanding, with 36% of the float
shorted. Does it still qualify as a tradable candidate under the Jack Hershey
methodology?
MED also has high short interest, about 17% of the float shorted.
IAAC is interesting. Of the four stocks in dry up, it has the lowest ratio of
volume for the last close to its average volume over the past three months. The
ratio is less than 20%. Does that mean it's likely the stock will continue it's
downtrend? The chart for IAAC does not look good at all, unless you're looking
for potential shorts.
Quote from Monkman:
Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let me know what you think.
- Monkman
Quote from Monkman:
Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let me know what you think.
- Monkman
Quote from Retief:
Thanks Haroki. You're right, IAAC MED NVEC and SIRF all show as in dry up. Of those stocks only NVEC appears to be in an uptrend.
NVEC, however, has only 4.63 million shares outstanding, with 36% of the float shorted. Does it still qualify as a tradable candidate under the Jack Hershey methodology?
MED also has high short interest, about 17% of the float shorted.
IAAC is interesting. Of the four stocks in dry up, it has the lowest ratio of volume for the last close to its average volume over the past three months. The ratio is less than 20%. Does that mean it's likely the stock will continue it's downtrend? The chart for IAAC does not look good at all, unless you're looking for potential shorts.
final universe
Spyder-
Would you mind posting your current final universe?
Also, are you currently using stocktables.com or only the eoddata.com procedure
you described earlier?
Last, have you noticed any difference in performance with the method from stocks
that come from the eoddata.com procedure but don't rank high enough in the
stocktables.com sort?
Thanks!
Quote from TimDog:
Hey Monkman, I'm currently trying to assess the charts in the FU using only Price, Volume, and Channels, so based on that ill try to give you my thoughts on it for tomorrow. Im not 100% on all of this so take it for what its worth, hopefully im on the right track.
I see SPAR as a possible short and a possible long for tomorrow. But in most cases ill probably not do anything tomorrow with it as you will see below.
If we look back 5 bars from the right there are three green bars with decreasing volume hitting the RTL. This is what we would expect in the non-dominant traverse. Price then falls on increasing volume (what we would expect in the dominant traverse) and expands the channel with a volatility expansion. Today price increased but on lower volume. This is doing what we expect as price moves towards the RTL again. Tomorrow, based on the gaussians, we would expect lower volume as price moves towards the RTL again. However, if u were looking to short SPAR on this retrace we would be anticipating an increase in volume with price falling, thus increasing the pace of the channel.
In order to enter long i would be looking for the volume to increase with increasing price, but would pay close attention to the RTL as price approaches it.
Of the three possible outcomes stated above:
(1) price increases on lower volume towards the RTL
(2) price drops on increasing volume for a possible short
(3) price increases on increasing volume for a long
I believe the outcome that the gaussian formations point to is number (1). Again, this is only anticipation, and we can react in what ever way necessary when the market shows us which way price moves. The only problem is with the way the market has been acting. With the recent selloff prices are all over the place, so this assessment may be better suited for when the market is back to normal.
I hope what I have written makes sense and follows the ideas behind using volume gaussians to lead price.
Current Final Universe
BITS COGO DTLK FTEK GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MIKR NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE SIM
SIRF SNCR SYX XING
HWCC and XING currently without Rank
I no longer use Stocktables.com now that I have added the 25% Insider and 25%
Institutional Owned Shares Criteria.
Based on applying the Hershey Fundamental Criteria (including the 25% pair) to
the entire stock market (roughly 8700 symbols currently), we can narrow
the field down to 184 stocks.
Here are those stocks:
ACLI AER AFSI ALY AMIS AMSF AOB AOS APKT ARP ASCA ASPV AVX AYR BBG BBW BBX BEBE
BHS BMA BRNC BYD CAB CALM CBEY CCRT CENT CGI CKXE CLMS CLRK CMED CNA CNS COGO
COGT CORS CPC CPX CRVL CRZO DCP DLB DLR DPZ DRQ DRYS DSW DWA EGLE ELOS EQY ERJ
ETM FBC FNF FOSL FRO FTEK GDP GSIC GSTL HBG HBI HGT HHS HITT HLF HLYS HOV HRZ HS
HTLD HWCC IAAC IDC IFS IHS ININ IPGP ISLE IT ITC ITWO IUSA JAH JCG JRN KCI KEA
KND KNL KNOT KNX LOOP LQDT MCHX MFW MNI MOV MTZ MWA NATI NCTY NDN NFLX NNI NSTC
NTE NWY OCN OMRI OO ORH OXPS PBCT PBH PCCC PCR PEC PLA PLSB POR POS QMAR QSII
RATE RES RGC RJET RUTH SAH SBGI SBNY SCHN SFUN SKX SMG SMRT SNCR SNDA SOHU SPWR
SRX SUNH SWC SWFT SWHC SYKE TG THO TLB TNOX TPX TRAD TRAK TRLG TRW TRX TSCM TTEC
TUES TW TWLL TWPG TXRH UA VDSI VEH VGR VLCM VNT VOL WERN WINN WIRE WLK WPSC WTI
WTS WTW XING ZUMZ ZZ
I have seen no drop off in performace using the methods previously described. In
fact, one might say, I've seen enhanced performace.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Wow, Telechart has a vastly different initial universe....
How to check which is correct?
Results
Quote from Haroki:
Wow, Telechart has a vastly different initial universe.... How to check which is correct?
__________________
Quote from Haroki:
no MSN. I'm usually posting from work - my office is an old travel trailer and my connection is through a slooooow dialup. The chart I posted earlier during the day took like 5 minutes to upload !!!!
Sometimes I'm at home early in the am - until 11-12 eastern - posting, and then off to work. Best bet would be to chat here...
Quote from johnpinochet:
Goodness! Are you trading from some remote outpost in the middle of nowhere? Don't tell me you are living in the US or Europe?
I guess I'm spoiled living overseas getting 100 Mbps with optical fibre to the home for 30 USD/month. 10 years ago when I first visited Asia, I could transfer money via a cell phone or via a web browser to anyone I met, to any bank for a small fee of less than 1 dollar. These were bank to bank transfers. Instantaneous.
Please tell me you can do this money transfer within the US. Instantaneously transfer funds from one unrelated bank to another with a minimal sub 1 dollar charge.
Re: Results
Quote from Spydertrader:
Both versions may be correct. The differences most likely result from the Positive EPS culling parameter. Qcharts uses a Yearly EPS. If Telechart uses quarterly EPS, then you'd have vastly different results.
- Spydertrader
Hi Spyder,
From what I've read into your message, you're saying that you look for trades in
the expanded universe (multiverse?) and 'rank' is a secondary consideration?
Mark
Well, I just got a PM from a guy that said that Telechart's fundy stats
aren't updated very often and are often wrong.
Time to find another way to filter stocks...
Quote from mischief:
From what I've read into your message, you're saying that you look for trades in the expanded universe (multiverse?) and 'rank' is a secondary consideration?
__________________
in hwcc at 24.40
and it doesn't go any where
I just bot 1000 IAAC at an average of 17.1798.
- Huskydog
IAAC
Requested Chart (enlarged for easier viewing)
- Spydertrader
__________________
Apparently there was a news catalyst:
IAAC news
Quote from Huskydog:
I just bot 1000 IAAC at an average of 17.1798.
- Huskydog
My favorite of the day:
SPAR
unfortunately, i'm still waiting on the sideline as i want to see a more stable
market condition since yesterday was only the first day of recovery.
Thank god the market has settled down and we can get some trades on! One of
the good things about trading and sleeping at the same time is that you can't
'bend' the rules to trade.
In NVEC @ 25.04.
Quote from chiefraven:
My favorite of the day:
SPAR
unfortunately, i'm still waiting on the sideline as i want to see a more stable market condition since yesterday was only the first day of recovery.
Hi there spydertrader.
Man, I go away for a coupla months and y'all are using different screening tools
(no more stocktables.com)!
I have a basic question about the Hershey culling criteria (price>10 and <50,
volume>200,000, EPS > 0, 25%+ institutional ownership, etc.). Is the purpose of
these preconditions just to have a shorter list for the WealthLab Hershey
Equities Rank Scan? In other words, if WealthLab could easily scan the whole
universe of stocks for Hershey rank, would you just do that?
I've found that my Fidelity advanced screener can filter on many of these
criteria except for insider % ownership. But I'm able to get a list of about 160
stocks with the criteria I do use.
I'm a cheap b@stard and don't want to shell out the $100/month for QCharts.
Quote from Spydertrader:
For Beginner Methods, Rank still plays a fundamental role. After all, repeatability leads to profitability. However, the Advanced Methods (FTT's and Gaussians) work in any market on any time frame. As such, rank has a lessor role. Sometimes, the two methods intersect (an FTT forms on a Final Universe Stock). When this happens, one often hits gold.
- Spydertrader
"For Beginner Methods, Rank still plays a fundamental role. After all,
repeatability leads to profitability. However, the Advanced Methods (FTT's and
Gaussians) work in any market on any time frame. As such, rank has a lessor
role. Sometimes, the two methods intersect (an FTT forms on a Final Universe
Stock). When this happens, one often hits gold.
" -spyder
if you're trading the beginner method, then you would still run the list through
wealthlab rank scan...but if you're trading FTT, then i'm guessing you're only
using ranks as a confidence thing... just as how we use the scores in the
beginner method as another source to confirm about the possible candidacy of our
stock.
this is what i have assumed.
Quote from stevegee58:
I have a basic question about the Hershey culling criteria (price>10 and <50, volume>200,000, EPS > 0, 25%+ institutional ownership, etc.). Is the purpose of these preconditions just to have a shorter list for the WealthLab Hershey Equities Rank Scan? In other words, if WealthLab could easily scan the whole universe of stocks for Hershey rank, would you just do that?
__________________
I have sold out of IAAC, and I did so at 1:21 and 2:07. Here are the fills:
200 at 17.39
100 at 17.226
100 at 18.52
200 at 18.51
200 at 18.50
200 at 18.5156
The trade yielded a profit of $977.91, which is 5.7%
I sold the first 300 because I was unsure about the stock's volume continuing.
Spydertrader also advised me to watch for a potential FBO and said that if that
was the case, I should wash the trade out instead of taking a loss on it. I took
some off to be on the safe side.
The second sell was done after the stock had progressed 20% from the low of the
FTT. The price of the low is 15.36, which made the 20% target equal to 18.432. I
decided to use that as my uncle point and sold in the 2:05 bar. The stock did
progress up, but not before it dipped back under the $18 level.
I will be watching this equity tomorrow to see if it gives an NVEC continuation
move (see the 2/23 and 2/26 bars on the daily chart).
Thanks to Spydertrader for tweaking my knowledge a little today and enabling me
to take some nice profits out of this move.
- Huskydog
Quote from Jason M:
Are you saying that your current equities strategy involves perusing the 185 (or so) charts that pass your fundamental filter, looking for FTTs? You no longer make sure these stocks have Rank prior to trading them?
Quote from Jason M:
I just want to be clear on this since, in the past, you've made comments that led me to believe that Rank is the most important filtering criterion.
__________________
This new Free Yahoo Java Finance Screener contains all screening the
variables listed by Spydertrader.
http://screen.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html
As we found in one of the previous incarnations of this journal, the yahoo
data for float is notoriously unreliable.
Also, the institutional and insider ownership numbers are absolute, not
percentages.
Tantalizingly close, but no cigar.
Quote from Haroki:
Live in Napa, Ca and work for a Winery. My office is at the shop location in the middle of our vineyard. And no cell phones work there either....
__________________
Yesterday, there were four stocks showing up as currently in dry up:
IAAC, MED, NVEC, and SIRF.
IAAC and MED both looked liked bad bets based on daily charts. In particular,
both appeared to be in definite down trends over the past three months. NVEC and
SIRF had better charts, because it looked like possibly down trends had
reversed.
Should trades have been entered in any of these stocks based on the Jack Hershey
Method? A trade in IAAC looks like it would have been a winner. MED is a
disaster. It's down 14% based on reduced earnings guidance.
NVEC a winner. SIRF a wash.
Quote from Retief:
Should trades have been entered in any of these stocks based on the Jack Hershey Method?
__________________
Tell me what you all think of this chart of RATE. Looks like pt3 might turn
into pt 1 over the next several days. With the surge in black vol, and the
steady pase thereafter it leads me to believe that we have a FTT. Increasing
black should follow.
- Monkman
Thanks Spydertrader, that helps. My understanding based on what you said, is
that the overall price trend based on a daily chart is not a consideration. The
final determination is based on intraday action and indicators. Personally, I
feel more comfortable, going long on a stock in an overall uptrend, like SNCR on
Monday.
With respect to MED, the catalyst for the 14% decline was a news event. I think
that is probably unpredictable. However, a brief explanation for the criteria
for short candidates would be helpful.
Stocks in dry up now: CHDX, COGO, DTLK, GRRF, and SIM
CHDX: has been in a steep down trend. It may be reversing based on the MACD and
stochastic.
COGO: Daily chart looks really bad.
DTLK: Price has been consolidating with inside bars. However, the volume no
longer meets the Hershey criteria. Average volume over the past 65 days is only
about 137K.
GRRF: Chart looks similar to CHDX. Down trend may be reversing. Earnings release
schedule for Monday, March 12, 2007, BMO. You could only hold for two days to
exit before the earnings release.
SIM: Chart similar to CHDX. Down trend may be reversing.
Other stocks in dry-up, but which do not and have not meet Hershey volume
requirements:
BITI, SLP and JST.
Quote from Retief:
My understanding based on what you said, is that the overall price trend based on a daily chart is not a consideration. The final determination is based on intraday action and indicators.
__________________
Quote from Monkman:
Tell me what you all think of this chart of RATE.
__________________
Quote from Retief:
I think that is probably unpredictable. However, a brief explanation for the criteria for short candidates would be helpful.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Two and Four Summers ago we spent a few days in Napa during trips to the Bay Area. I might have bumped into you out there and didn't even know it.
- Spydertrader
Spyder, I gotta hand it to you. You're an incredibly dedicated, hard-working, and altruistic person who obviously doesn't need more than 4 hours of sleep. How do you keep up the ET chat room, 2 journals AND trade?
Quote from Haroki:
Unless your whole profile is a sham and you're really a drunk 35ish divorcee doing some wine tasting with her girlfriends...
Then maybe I would have come out of my hole..
LOL. I did go on the tours, but
Wine isn't really my thing.__________________
Quote from stevegee58:
Spyder, I gotta hand it to you. You're an incredibly dedicated, hard-working, and altruistic person who obviously doesn't need more than 4 hours of sleep. How do you keep up the ET chat room, 2 journals AND trade?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I have provided such an explanation for short candidates on numerous occasions throughout Journals I, II and III. Based on this (and other posts), I encourage you to review the previous Journals beginning with Page One of Journal One. You appear to have missed a number of key points with respect to this methodology.
- Spydertrader
Repeating Oneself
I don't want to sound condescending or disrespectful, but seriously, I've
pointed you in the right direction to locate the information you seek. Rather
than spending time rewording the same question in an effort to motivate me to
repeat my answer for easily the forth time, why not avail yourself of the
information already provided?
Start at Page One of Journal One, and read on until you catch up to the present.
Don't take my word for it, ask anyone who has already read through the Journals
(and many have done so multiple times), doing so will benefit you.
I'm not trying to be a pain in the ass here. Doing the work required has
benefits not available to those who seek short cuts.
Good Journey to you.
- Spydertrader
__________________
LOL, when I first started looking at this method there was only one journal
to review. Now there are two plus the current long one. Plus the FTT/Futures
one.
The body of information is growing exponentially!
Re: Repeating Oneself
Quote from Spydertrader:
Rather than spending time rewording the same question in an effort to motivate me to repeat my answer for easily the forth time, why not avail yourself of the information already provided?
Start at Page One of Journal One, and read on until you catch up to the present. Don't take my word for it, ask anyone who has already read through the Journals (and many have done so multiple times), doing so will benefit you.
Re: Re: Repeating Oneself
Quote from Retief:
As for shorting stocks from a quality universe, of course it's crazy. Select stocks for shorting from a universe of poor quality stocks.
__________________
dude, you need to learn some manners and know who's house you're in. this is
a thread that spydertrader so graciously started for us. if you are coming in
asking stupid questions and pretend you have read everything... it's really not
that hard for even us to see that you have not read any materials laid out for
you.....or maybe you have read it, but nothing is sinking in or being
absorbed?!?
if you want to throw your attitude around after spyder directed you to the exact
source to your question, go start a new thread. nobody in here is going to give
you better explainations in here than spyder since he started this journal.
if you have read the journals, you would know that as a beginner to this method,
you should pick stocks at the bottom of an uptrend channel... if you are picking
downtrending stocks, yes there will be more risk... but then again, some people
can trade breakout of these downtrending stocks pretty well once they understand
the concept behind price, volume.
hey guys. can someone tell me how to export the stock list from qchart's
quotesheet into wealthlab.com?
this is my first time scanning the entire market, and so far i have sorted the
list and taken out the ones that dont fit our criteria. but how do i export this
list into a file or simply copy all the symbols that are left into
wealthlab.com?
i know i can export the list into an excel sheet, but it doesn't put symbols in
the appropriate boxes so i am not able to copy them.... and i dont think
wealthlab accepts csv files
Quote from chiefraven:
hey guys. can someone tell me how to export the stock list from qchart's quotesheet into wealthlab.com?
__________________
looks like a rocket on the 5 minute for SYX
in @ 22.64
In IAAC at 19.3890 average, 1000 shares. Let's see what this guy is willing
to give today.
- Huskydog
Sold out of the IAAC for a 14 cent profit. I'm not sold on the volume in this guy today. I thought that more might come into it as the stock went up. but it didn't yet and its lunchtime.
Dangit, COGO gave a nice clear beginner's long signal. I was all set to click
the transmit button on the order at $15.25.
Then I kept saying "no I'll wait for a better price". Then it shot up and left
me behind and then it was after 11:00. Bah, I'm such a wimp.
I need to start just banging on the market button on these things and stop
worrying about getting a better price.
I know how you feel, i do the same stupid thing all the time... hopefully one
of these days i'll learn.
Quote from stevegee58:
Dangit, COGO gave a nice clear beginner's long signal. I was all set to click the transmit button on the order at $15.25.
Then I kept saying "no I'll wait for a better price". Then it shot up and left me behind and then it was after 11:00. Bah, I'm such a wimp.
I need to start just banging on the market button on these things and stop worrying about getting a better price.
Quote from stevegee58:
Dangit, COGO gave a nice clear beginner's long signal. I was all set to click the transmit button on the order at $15.25.
Then I kept saying "no I'll wait for a better price". Then it shot up and left me behind and then it was after 11:00. Bah, I'm such a wimp.
I need to start just banging on the market button on these things and stop worrying about getting a better price.
BITS maybe interesting here. Bot 2000 at 7.35.
- Huskydog
lol monkyman, you're starting to sound like spyder
Well, that didn't go so well. Out at .25. No volume + the futures falling
hard = a loss for me. Lesson learned.
Quote from Huskydog:
BITS maybe interesting here. Bot 2000 at 7.35.
- Huskydog
can anyone tell me how they would trade these FTT?
i dont particularly like GROW, it just happend to be the one drew channels for
and noticed the FTT.
Re: GROW
Quote from chiefraven:
can anyone tell me how they would trade these FTT? i dont particularly like GROW, it just happened to be the one drew channels for and noticed the FTT.
__________________
thanks for the explanation spyder.
however, i do have one question on FTT though. how do you determine if a candle
is FTT... i mean i know we are looking for the current short term traverse to
fail to go the same direction as the dominant traverse (the big big 3 channels
we have in grow) but within grow's big downward channel, there are many many
candles that never touched the bottom of the channel.... so why is our FTT the
only FTT? how about t he other candles before that that never reached the bottom
channel?
we are looking for a green candle that open and close higher than the lowest low
of the red candle... like our ftt right?
but what about the + doji 2 or 3 bars to the right of the biggest green candle
in the middle of the chart? that candlestick open and close higher than the
previous red's low didn't it? so is that a FTT as well ?
or how about that other FTT i drew in my grow chart
FTT
Quote from chiefraven:
so why is our FTT the only FTT?
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so does it mean that as long as the candlesticks doesn't touch the bottom of
the channel in a main down channel. and when there is a green candle that close
higher than the previous tape or short term traverse's red candle's low, then
that makes it a FTT?
just wanna get things in perspective.
Quote from chiefraven:
just wanna get things in perspective.
__________________
Guys,
I can't emphasise the importance of checking earnings dates and news.
I forgot to check yesterday and so was long GMKT going into their earnings
announcement. Just dropped 12% of my account on a single trade. It's painful,
but since it was all 'profit', I know I'll earn it back.
Jack is also right about feeling more comfortable playing with profit as opposed
to core equity. I think if this had happened a couple of months earlier, I'd be
completely stressed out.
Hey mischief,
sorry to hear about the loss... good to get reminded of the importance of
checking for earnings reports, as it so easily can lead to painful
consequences... thanks.
Can i ask, how reliable have you found the IB controller software in placing
your trades to IB TWS?
Hi Gpzany,
IB Controller has been bullletproof. The only errors have been my own (either
code related or not checking earning dates, etc....)
Got in Nvec a little earlier @ 26.40.
Quote from mischief:
I can't emphasise the importance of checking earnings dates and news.
__________________
I also got into NVEC. Also short FTEK.
Grow is worth having a look at right now.
damn haroki, you got into nvec real early. hehe i got it at 26.82... my
market orders didn't work today for some reason... made me missed the price i
wanted... i too wanted to get in a lot earlier than i did
i'm currently long NVEC and ININ.... although inin is not looking too great
right now.
This is my first post on this board. I must say that I have learned a lot
reading the journals over the last six months.
Bought NVEC at 26.80
Guys I don't want to poop on this party but the trade on NVEC was on 03 07
and you should be selling here imho
Also COGO, way late at 15.90. Wanted to get closer to the open but the first bar had NO volume, so my attention went elsewhere. Then I came back to it on the 2nd bar and !!!!! Missed the pop, held through the 3rd bar , and now is going up again. I have trouble with the volume gaussians on something like this, where it's all over the place , look at NVEC right now - several increasing volume and price bars, followed by 2 decreasing V and P bars. Near picture perfect action.
Is anyone good with Excel?
Was wondering if anyone could help me make a good excel sheet for keeping track
of my trade records. something similar to this one i have made here... i know
how to do it so i get the Net% and Net, and Profits.. know all to do all the
calculations, but how do i do it for the entire column so i dont have to copy
individual cells and pasting it each time to transfer the formula? is there
anyway to just set it by column so each time i type in a new trade it just
calculates it by itself....
also, is there a way to do it so that if let's say my trade was profitable, it
automatically makes the profit cell for that trade green? like the one in this
picture? and maybe red for a negative trade?
lastly, i was wondering if anyone have that excel sheet a gentlemen made a while
back in journal2 i believe... where he calculates for unusual volume and even
shows is in a graphical way like a meter and green bars representing the %
level... if so could someone send that to me?
Anyway, if anyone could help i would greatly appreciate it.
Quote from Joab:
Guys I don't want to poop on this party but the trade on NVEC was on 03 07 and you should be selling here imho
NVEC
Nice trade on NVEC there guys.
- Spydertrader
__________________
thanks.
dont forget about the breakout of ININ. in at 14.32
Sorry if I am asking something that has been answered already... Is NVEC in
final universe because it is a tenured stock?
I checked it against parameters, rank and score and it failed to make the cut.
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
sometimes a stock may fall outside of the rank parameter after it's been added to the stock, but based on experience we have seen them get back into rank... which is why most of us only delete stocks with no ranks or stocks that do not fit our criteria at the end of each month.
Quote from BA_Trader:
I checked it against parameters, rank and score and it failed to make the cut.
__________________
LOL
Quote from Spydertrader:
Once in, a stock stays in until it loses rank. I called NVEC a piece of garbage a few weeks ago looking to throw it out of the Final Universe earlier than warranted. Shows you what I know.
- Spydertrader
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
Is anyone good with Excel?
Was wondering if anyone could help me make a good excel sheet for keeping track
of my trade records. something similar to this one i have made here... i know
how to do it so i get the Net% and Net, and Profits.. know all to do all the
calculations, but how do i do it for the entire column so i dont have to copy
individual cells and pasting it each time to transfer the formula? is there
anyway to just set it by column so each time i type in a new trade it just
calculates it by itself....
also, is there a way to do it so that if let's say my trade was profitable, it
automatically makes the profit cell for that trade green? like the one in this
picture? and maybe red for a negative trade?
lastly, i was wondering if anyone have that excel sheet a gentlemen made a while
back in journal2 i believe... where he calculates for unusual volume and even
shows is in a graphical way like a meter and green bars representing the %
level... if so could someone send that to me?
Anyway, if anyone could help i would greatly appreciate it.
Quote from mischief:
Hi Gpzany,
IB Controller has been bullletproof. The only errors have been my own (either code related or not checking earning dates, etc....)
re: Excel
know all to do all the calculations, but how do i do it for the entire column
so i dont have to copy individual cells and pasting it each time to transfer the
formula? is there anyway to just set it by column so each time i type in a new
trade it just calculates it by itself....
also, is there a way to do it so that if let's say my trade was profitable, it
automatically makes the profit cell for that trade green? like the one in this
picture? and maybe red for a negative trade?
===========
There are several ways to replicate the cell formula.
1. Copy the cell. Select the range of cells where you want the formula to go and
select Paste. Formulas will automatically adjust for the row number. Or,
2. You can also use the Fill command from the edit menu. Or,
3. Click on the cell. Put the cursor on the lower right corner where it will
turn into a plus sign. Click and drag down the column as far as you want to
replicate the cell.
You can also do these with a range of cells. If your formulas are in D5 to H5,
then select cells D5 to H5 and do either 1, 2, or 3.
Font Color:
Sophisticated: You can format the cell color by going to the Format menu and
selecting cells and creating a custom format with green for positive numbers and
red for negative numbers.
Simple: Just select a standard format that automatically colors negative numbers
red. Then set the desired cells to a font color of green. Non-negative numbers
will then be green and negative numbers will automatically switch to red.
ININ @14.95
Oops..
out @14.85
Today was a really crazy day for the markets. Lots of news out that was
effecting the markets, but I could really care-a-less what it says. Today it was
my TLs, and I holding the world together, creating my own headlines.
The stocks I had at bat were:
Group 7
COGO - short trade
TRCR - short trade
Group 1
IAAC S or L
Grow
Group 0
Lqdt
SNCR - short trade
Pitch
ININ
ICE S or L
GRRF S or L
PCCC
VOL
HOV
NFLX
TRAD short trade
I had one trade that I could execute today and the one I picked was GROW. It was
in Dry up the day before. Monitoring it on the 10 minute It hit the bottom of
the tape and didn't go lower so I immediately got in at 38.20. Then it started
to move up, all was good. Then at 12:00 on a 30min it broke my support clearly,
retraced, and then began to get crushed like everything else on my list.
Immediately I sold near the low of the lowest prior bar filled 37.85 for a wash
trade.
My question is, why out of all the trades with the trend being down did I pick
GROW to go long with? Maybe it was my belief that the TL would hold, and the
next day it would go from DU to FRV. Or it could have been that the Hershey
Method is taught as a long only method, which has clouded my mind, and made me
long bias. Whatever it may be, it is very hard for me to place short trades with
equities, while with futures its natural. Anyone have any advice on this matter?
Maybe there should be a Hershey short only journal called, "A Look at the Darker
Side of the Coin." How we capture the whole cycle and make 40% instead of 20%.
In futures we are taught to look at the trend via gaussian bars and price. From
there we determine whether to continue to hold or reverse. How come we have not
been taught that with equities? Am I missing something?
- Monkman
Quote from Monkman:
In futures we are taught to look at the trend via gaussian bars and price. From there we determine whether to continue to hold or reverse. How come we have not been taught that with equities? Am I missing something?
__________________
took one trade with inin today, in at 14.93 and out at 14.99
should have got in when the stock broke the down trend around 14.70, but i
lagged.
At around 15.00 the stock looked like it hit a top, with increasing volume and
the price didn't increase. So then i got out.
ahh no volume makes things boring ><
No kidin'. Was looking at a few, but went nowhere without volume...
Hmmmm, time to start practicing drawing channels in the es..
IAAC
We talked about IAAC a few days ago. Here is an updated chart. Note: All
trendlines drawn in prior to today. See how the Gaussians work?
- Spydertrader
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looking at iaac, 30 min chart, would you call 10:30 a ftt?
I'd call it a point 2
Oops, chart
i'm short SIRF. dryup reached Average Dryup already. i entered a little before 25% pro rata volume. at 27.41 earlier today at around 10 or so.
Quote from thething:
looking at iaac, 30 min chart, would you call 10:30 a ftt?
__________________
it looks like increasing volume with decreasing price though
A longer look, I see a pt 3 for a down channel
OK, I see what Spyder's saying, and he's right. I just wasn't annotating that
tight.
Blue is several day trend
red is what I use to find a trend within the blue trend and pt 3 to find a
possible entry point (at my 1st post time)
greenish is what I wouls use to mark trends within the red - ftt's, fbo's,
etc...
ah, i see
[QUOTE]Quote from Spydertrader:
[B]Here is the 30 minute chart. Circled area within the steep (thin green lines)
up channel represnts an FTT of that Green Up Channel.
forgot the chart again...
forgot the chart again... and again.... LOL
SIRF short.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Here is the 30 minute chart. Circled area within the steep (thin green lines) up channel represnts an FTT of that Green Up Channel.
Importance of Rank
Jack, Nice to hear from you. Hope life is good in AZ. Over the last few months our trading focus here has moved from the Final Universe emphasis of MACD and RSI indicators to particularly the FTT. My question concerns the importance of a stock's rank. At the FTT level of training should I be focusing on my hot list (260 stocks- most without rank) or should I focus on the Final Universe of ranked stocks (about 25 presently)? Secondly, I am focusing almost exclusively on daily bars to identify FTT pivots. Should I be looking at a smaller time frame? Finally I continue to be unable to clearly interpret Guassian volume patterns that you, Spyder, and others refer to with such assurance. I have read all the journals and listened to most of your AZ meetings but still remain in the dark. I have been at this for a long time so I believe that it is not a matter of not grasping the discussion. But then again I admit that it remains rather mystic.
IAAC updated
Updated IAAC Chart (Daily). Note the 30 minute chart (also attached) and see
not only price Break through the up trend channel, but also, the significant
lack of Volume in the middle of the day. As a result, we need to see increasing
black Volume tomorrow, in order for Price to move higher.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: IAAC updated
Quote from Spydertrader:
Updated IAAC Chart (Daily). Note the 30 minute chart (also attached) and see not only price Break through the up trend channel, but also, the significant lack of Volume in the middle of the day. As a result, we need to see increasing black Volume tomorrow, in order for Price to move higher.
- Spydertrader
yes spydie these charts really help !
Thanks
Did anyone shorted SIRF yesterday?
i shorted at 27.41 yesterday... and eventhough the market is up today, this
stock is tanking hard... in 10 minutes, the latest 30min candlestick showed a
240,000 sell volume...
just entered a long position in BITS at around 7.78 .82 .85 .86 couldn't get
them all in one order
in hindsight i should've trusted my own judgement and not second guess myself
and worry so much about wash trades and wasting commissions. should've entered
earlier than i did.
bits hasn't reached FRV yet, but there's plenty of time left.
chief,
my data for bits seems strange... on my entrybar at 11:15AM and again at
11:23AM, I see down spikes to 7.36 and 7.44 respectively which would have exited
my entry for a 2% stop loss.
I see it in both IB data and IQfeed. Did you get this data also?
thanks.
Quote from gpzany:
chief,
my data for bits seems strange... on my entrybar at 11:15AM and again at 11:23AM, I see down spikes to 7.36 and 7.44 respectively which would have exited my entry for a 2% stop loss.
I see it in both IB data and IQfeed. Did you get this data also?
thanks.
What software works best with Hersheys Equities method?
Hi all, i am new to Hersheys Equities and am looking around for broker/software provider that works best as far as charting goes with Hersheys Equities method. Any suggestions or a link to similar discussion is greatly appreciated! Thank you in advance.
IAAC updated
Note the attached Charts.
Price remains within the blue up channel (30 minute) and within the black taped
channel (daily). Although we did not see increased Black volume today, price
remains within the taped channel on both timeframes. As such, we can afford to
hold IAAC another day. Even though today's bar (candle) appears as if it
could be an FTT (taped black channel on daily), the relatively low volume levels
combined with price failing to move higher or lower (compared to the previous
day high and low), indicates the possibility that we have a flaw. In the futures
thread, we would consider today's bar (candle) a flaw (specifically a 'stall').
We hold through all flaws - waiting on the next bar to provide our
'confirmation' of change, or confirmation of 'continuation.'
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: What software works best with Hersheys Equities method?
Quote from romanvm:
Hi all, i am new to Hersheys Equities and am looking around for broker/software provider that works best as far as charting goes with Hersheys Equities method. Any suggestions or a link to similar discussion is greatly appreciated! Thank you in advance.
__________________
Quote from TimDog:
I use IB feed but dont see those spikes on my charts.
Quote from gpzany:
Thanks Tim,
checked prophet.net and those spikes are not present either... damn shame if dirty data is the cause of exiting a perfectly good trade...
cheers.
Edit: just did a forced backfill, and IQfeed have removed the two bad quotes from their data.
Quote from mischief:
Guys,
I can't emphasise the importance of checking earnings dates and news.
I forgot to check yesterday and so was long GMKT going into their earnings announcement. Just dropped 12% of my account on a single trade. It's painful, but since it was all 'profit', I know I'll earn it back.
I saw that DXPE had earnings today with the following useful tool. I run all
four data sources on all my potential stocks each evening. It works well.
http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
I hope this helps.
Quote from OpenTrader:
I saw that DXPE had earnings today with the following useful tool. I run all four data sources on all my potential stocks each evening. It works well.
http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
I hope this helps.
Cipher,
What I do now is just put all the tickers that are in 'dry up' (explore the new
improved script and it brings the stocks up) and then just get quotes for all of
them from finance.yahoo.com
Below the quotes is a list of news items for all stocks that goes back about a
month. The earnings announcements are invariably in there.
I saw DXPE had an earnings announcement last night via this method. To overcome
this, I would have either added the stock to the 'intrades' watchlist (new
script) or removed it from the dry up list (old script).
For what it's worth, I didn't trade last night, just trying to get my allowable
day trades back up to 3.
Happy St. Patrick's Day!
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
__________________
IAAC updated
Price remained within the black taped channel again today (Daily) and within
the Blue Up Channel (30 minute). A slight increase in volume over the
previous day, but not enough to cause price to move in a huge way. As long as we
continue to see profits (Price remains in the up channel), we continue to hold.
Note circled areas of charts.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Why would one choose to miss the move on dxpe? I'm not saying you should
trade the news but the signals were all a go for this one ;-) Except it had no
rank ;-(
Cordially,
-Ddude-
Ddude,
Look up GMKT. Tell me the signals weren't all lined up for that one as well.
Quote from ddude:
Why would one choose to miss the move on dxpe? I'm not saying you should trade the news but the signals were all a go for this one ;-) Except it had no rank ;-(
Cordially,
-Ddude-
If you are talking about the 3/8 to 3/9 drop on GMKT, I would say that the
signals are not lined up... It is looking close but not quite...
3/6/ to 3/7 fast and slow stochastics and MACD all not doing the right thing ;-(
There is an FTT a few days back on 3/5 which would get me watching...
On 3/8 things are looking better but still not quite right to me one stochastic
is ok the other not and the MACD is not good for me ;-( Could bounce either way
off the 20 day MA... Volume and price are looking good... I can see how this
could bite...
My question was not answered, are we to trade the news or the technicals? As a
beginer we would stay away from any announcement days but aren't we a little
farther forward?
Cordially,
-Ddude-
Quote from ddude:
My question was not answered, are we to trade the news or the technicals? As a beginner we would stay away from any announcement days but aren't we a little farther forward?
__________________
FTT on RATE
Amigos,
Any thoughts on RATE?
Just for fun ;-) RATE...
If one had entered on Wed or Thurs at or around 36.15 then one could hold and
see where it goes...
However, it seems that there are/were several things that would keep me from
jumping in now...
Fridays bar is breaking below the blue tape... Volume is going in the wrong
direction... It seems that it was never in DU... Stochastics looking goofy ;-)
Cordailly,
-Ddude-
Quote from rickylc:
Anyone else experiencing difficulties gathering data from Yahoo finance website?
I haven't been able to get any data more recent than the 21st of feb. thought it was just a glitch and would have been fixed over the weekend. not so
I use this source to run wealthlab, so it sucks just a bit
cipher,
the cullstocktables.xls macro sheet also failed to update from yahoo's
website...
Not sure where to find the info to get these sheets working again...
Quote from cipherscribe:
Only this weekend did the "Final Universe Macro" stop working for me. Has anyone else had this problem whilst trying to download data from Yahoo? Is there any workaround to get this macro working again?
Logarithmic?
Hi all
Sorry if this has been covered, but on stock charts does it make much difference
if channels are done on a chart with a log scale or an arithmetic scale?
I know on ES 5minute the recommended scale is arithmetic with 2 point steps, but
what about for stocks (with respect to drawing channels)?
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Quote from Clym:
A pop up should say that two replacements were made.
Fantastic Clym! thanks for the information...
cheers.
In GSIC and BTUI this morning. Lets see what happens.
GROW
I know a few of you caught GROW this morning (ddude, SVRZ and H). Nice trade
guys. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi, Spyder. Wonderful Jobs!
I have been following these discussions for more than six months and absorbing
as many materials embeded in the Journal I & II. I start the paper trading from
today and I target to trade with this methodology in real Money starting in May.
Could you post your final universe for comparison? Thank you!
Quote from chasedream:
Could you post your final universe for comparison? Thank you!
__________________
Wow, look at NVEC gooooooo !!
A Reminder
All Times Eastern ....
- Spydertrader
__________________
NVEC finally broke out today on some nice volume, but then came crashing down
as the day went on. With the actions of this stock what is the trader suppose to
think, and what is the trader suppose to look for with respect to continuation
increasing price trend?
My chart below shows a continuous pattern of B/\R. The vol today was extremely
high which makes me think that this is an FTT and we are going to have another
test of the RTL (decr red) or we will experience decreasing black while hitting
the LTL. How does my thinking compare to yours?
Thanks,
Monkman
NVEC
I have yesterday's daily bar as an FTT if price tomorrow takes out today's high. In my channel the LTL is at 31.58. With my risk management controls I would be risking $250 to make about $120. Not very appealing but if it breaks strong I am long. If I miss the initial breakout I do not chase the price. I always place limit orders so it will need to hang around 28.71 long enough to get on board. It must also have some volume working for it. I like to see unusual volume of about .20 or higher if it occurs within 90 minutes of the open.
NVEC for fun ;-)
Yes, very odd... If one had caught it back below 23.00 ;-) Right now it would be
a coin toss for me... Guess we will have to see where it leads us in the morning
;-)
Maybe Spyder will comment...
Here is a pretty picture ;-)
Cordially,
-Ddude-
Quote from ddude:
NVEC for fun ;-)
Yes, very odd... If one had caught it back below 23.00 ;-) Right now it would be a coin toss for me... Guess we will have to see where it leads us in the morning ;-)
Maybe Spyder will comment...
Here is a pretty picture ;-)
Cordially,
-Ddude-
I have two decent trades working for me now, both off FTT's
entered GIGM on monday @ 12.64
entered XING on Friday @ 16.68
should have entered GRRF @ open this morning, but hate to start a trade before
FOMC
ooops, didn't finish the above post.
The significance is these are the first multi- day positions I've been able to
hold for a profit in almost 3 weeks.
exitted gigm this morning @ 13.86 for approx 10% profit
still holding xing as it hasn't really taken off yet
Today I traded SNCR. The trade did not work, and I was very cautious with it
since today was a fed day. Volume was running at a good pace when I entered the
trade, the MACD histogram was positive on the 30 min fractal, stochastics were
above 80 at the time of entry, and the stock was trading at a new alltime high.
I like the trade setup, with the possible exception of the stock already being
up more than 5% when I entered the position. This is simply a trade that didn't
work for me. The executions are attached.
thenewguy and I were chatting about GRRF and GROW today, but I decided to just
watch both equities after taking my initial hit in SNCR. A trader would have
faired much better than I did today if he/she had traded one or both of those
securities in addition to SNCR.
I did make a 3 different trades in SIGM today. The stock is not a JH trade per
say, but I did make $1255 in the security today. All trades were made after the
Fed announcement at 2:15. In my final trade, I took a 1000 share position in the
stock at 30.50 at EOD. I then checked the news and discovered that the stock had
its earnings announcement after the close. I went to sell the stock at 30.50 in
the afterhours session when a bid appeared half a point higher at $31.00. I hit
the bid at $31.00 since I don't know anything about what the company was going
to say in its earnings release. At least check, the stock is trading down at
$29.65.
The moral of the story: Always check for pending earnings announcements in your
overnight positions. I got EXTREMELY LUCKY that I managed to get out of the
position at a profit and avoid a big loss.
I hope you find the information useful.
- Huskydog
Update on NVEC. Attached below is the chart.
It appears we have an FTT from yesterdays black bar. We see very high volume,
with low volume today followed by no price appreciation. The gaussians are going
b/\r but now that we are in the range of dry up levels, we could have reverse
(incr red) that signals a change in direction. At this point we will have a
diagonal tic tack toe formation going downward. Which is basically the
transition from one channel to the next.
Since the path of least resistance is upward, shown by the channel and
gaussians. For the people that are still long, we want to see a b/\b with FRV
black. If this happens the volume will signal another confirmation that we are
headed to the top of the channel.
If you look deeper into the chart and switch it to an hourly time frame, you can
see that the last bar is really a red bar, and not a black one. There you see
B/\R. So as you zoom out back to the Daily you could say we have B/\R already,
red being todays bar.
When stocks go into DU it allows us to see key signals. It marks the transition
from one gaussian formation to another, and tell us how the channels should look
thereafter.
I think I am on the right page with this stuff. Comments would be appreciated.
- Monkman
NVEC
Quote from Monkman:
Comments would be appreciated.
__________________
NVEC
Hi all,
This is my first post, and I am still in the beginner level tracking this thread
and Future thread to understand the price/volume correlation.
I guess this NVEC chart is really hard to understand for beginners like me.
Because, to me, it look like a series of CCC since 2/26 and centering to $26.50
line (pink line in my chart).
So, my position would be "stay out" until the centering ends.
The same reason, I wouldn't take a position of IAAC.
But, ddude and Monkman may be right.
I just would like to know the difference or where to look to make a right
decision.
My pick for today was OMTR.
It's in the stocktable choice and ranked since I have started ranking.
And I just want to say thank you to Jack and Spydertrader and everybody making
contribution to this and other threads.
I learned a lot from your writings and charts, though still long way to go.
I hope I am heading toward right direction.
-- UriKai
Re: NVEC
Quote from UriKai:
Because, to me, it look like a series of CCC since 2/26 and centering to $26.50 line (pink line in my chart).
Re: NVEC
Quote from UriKai:
I just would like to know the difference or where to look to make a right decision.
__________________
Hope some of you caught GROW today.
Entry at 44.24. still holding currently
Caught GROW yesterday - 41.68
dayum... hey do you use msn messenger? a group of us have been chatting via
msn messenger.... care to join?
No msn mess. I'm at work right now - dash in and out of my "office" to
monitor. My connection is on a slooooow dialup out in the boonies, so I doubt I
have the bandwidth for it.
i should just post more here I guess, to get more feedback...
Curiously, I've found myself not even using indicators anymore - sto and macd -
and rely almost exclusively on volume and channels.
I guess it's starting to sink in....
Well, I should post some then.
PRXI is an outside the box trade - on my initial list - all the usual things
lined up. Low volume, increased yesterday slightly, really took off today.
Dakt yesterday and closed out today. previously had decreasing red volume - then
took off yesterday. lower volume today and stalled out, and BO to the down...
OMG yesterday, same story - volume increase yesterday. sold today...
More -
NVTL is a month long hold so far, in a scottrade acct that has a small balance,
so no ins and out to avoid the PDT rule.
MED also looks good right NOW - increased vol over yesterday, just finished a
retrace and is bouncing back up on increased vol - 10 min chart.
Curious - does anybody have the cajones to trade IAAC right now on such low
volume? It's gonna finish with about 75k, but higher price, etc. It would bother
me due to such poor financials the last 2 Q. I have it EPS ranking at a 5 last Q
and a 1 2 Q's ago. Year EPS is a 6!!! with an RS of 96... Is news holding it up?
PE is around 250....
IAAC updated
Quote from Haroki:
Curious - does anybody have the cajones to trade IAAC right now on such low volume? It's gonna finish with about 75k, but higher price, etc. It would bother me due to such poor financials the last 2 Q. I have it EPS ranking at a 5 last Q and a 1 2 Q's ago. Year EPS is a 6!!! with an RS of 96... Is news holding it up? PE is around 250....
__________________
Agree with everything there, just curious if anybody would trade it.
Maybe I'm too cautious and too used to trading longer time frames - based more
on financials....
Out GROW 46.18 - increasing red vol - might reenter if it bottoms and shows increasing black volume..
IAAC
Haroki
I did trade IAAC recently. It signaled on 3-16 at 19.07 at 9:34am. It did not
reach FRV by end of day so I exited the next open on 3-19 at 19.27. Net of +27.
IT WAS A PAPER TRADE ONLY BECAUSE THE VOLUME WAS LOW.
LOL - yeah, that's the only way I'd trade it...
BTW - in COGO 17.52 - just bounced off of RTL on increasing vol
hey Haroki, how did you find OMG, PRXI, and DAKT? i dont have them in my
Final Universe?
I do the scan on the entire market also as described by spyder each day, but
haven't been able to add any new symbols lately.
did you loosen the requirements slightly or what?
No they're just in my initial universe, which I get through TC2007. I get a
list significantly different than those using stocktables, but the list is still
quality. I use the same EPS,RS price, float, volume, and pos earnings that you
do. Curiously, if I add insider and institutionally owned stocks list total up
to 9 only, and I believe the last time Spyder put a IU, he had like 150ish....
I usually run 3 qoute sheets in Qcharts-
My initial universe
the final universe
and a Hotlist of stocks in dry up, Bruno, etc.... and I also add to the hotlist
stocks from either the initial or final that meet channel/volume setups.
I also sort my quote sheets by % gain since open, since it SEEMS to give me an
earlier view to those stocks taking off. Bear in mind that I still use the
unusual volume column in my decision making. If it doesn't appear that it'll
beat yesterday's volume on a PRV basis, I pass...
In actuality, many of my trades - maybe 30% - don't come from my hotlist, but
pop into view on the IU and FU quote sheets. And when I see them and see that I
missed a good setup, I will trade it, but usually keep much tighter parameters
on holding, since they haven't demonstrated an ability to cycle.
Just reviewing the day - even though I'm out of GROW, look at the buying
volume in the last 1 minute today.....
It's popped above my RTL at close. Huge again tomorrow?
Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from Spydertrader:
Welcome to the discussion. I hope you continue to find the many posts within the Journals helpful to your success. To help with Gaussian Volume Formations, check out this attachment. To get up to speed on FTT's, begin reading here. As you continue along reading, more and more areas begin to come into focus as the puzzle pieces fall into place.
With respect to NVEC, Price and Volume tell the tale. We either have continuation or we have change. Tomorrow, the market plans to let us know which.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from UriKai:
"The same direction" you meant is RTL traverse
__________________
yeah that's what i'm hoping for GROW tomorrow. i got out half at 47... still
holding the other half though. i should've exited at the top near 47.40. but my
curiosity got the best of me, because i wanted to see what this stock will do
when it finally reached PRV... it got close today, but didn't make it... but
like you said volume and price were pretty good at EOD today, and it respected
the channels pretty well, so hopefully it'll keep going tomorrow. After-hour for
grow was respectable too.. with high being at 46.20
regarding Initial Universe, yes we do get about 100 or so from stocktables, but
after you run a rank scan you only get about a handful though.... did you get
those stocks after you run the rankscan or do you not run it?
you said you have a quotesheet for stocks in bruno? do you find the brunos
through the chartscript from wealth-lab? 'cuz i usually go through my final
universe to look for bruno stocks manually.... if you do use the program, how
accurate is the chartscript in finding correct brunos?
Ok, I run my initial - but omit the insider and insitutional - and get about
100 stocks. I put those on a quote sheet. But when I add the I&I owned only 9
make it through. 9 is too small for an IU, so I add the 9 to the FU, but keep in
mind that they don't cycle.
I run the above 100 through W-lab to find cycling stocks and get my FU. Right
now it's around 25 - I'm sure you have the list.
I then run the FU through the Bruno and dryup scripts. I like the dryup, but the
Bruno sometimes catches them kinda late - with the fast sto up around 80+ on the
daily.
I really catch most of my selections doing the channel/volume work though, and I
only sporadically use the scripts any more, other than to find cycling stocks.
I may look into the msn messenger tonight or this weekend - I'll pm you if I do
to get on the list...
also after a rank scan, do you weed out the ones that dont fit the requirements? 65 day average volume, eps, float.
Using TC2007, I can filter for-
EPS rank
RS rank
avg vol
float
price
insider owned
institutional owned
pos earnings
It's a 1 stop filter, no need to jump around to various websites to cull. I just
get different results, most likely due to who provides the data and how EPS and
RS are figured. They're both somewhat proprietary, so results may be different.
But I really don't think it matters, per se. But in the interest of everyone
being on the same program, I use the FU as listed by Spyder periodically.
Haroki. that would be awesome. you should definetly join our network of
friends on MSN. I really like it because we are all about the same level and can
sometime call out stocks that other people might have missed.... and even
discuss about why we like certain trades and come up with patterns that we
notice.
it should be pretty easy to set up.
no msn mess yet, gf came over
hope you bought more grow..
in NVEC at 28:02 at 11:20.
NVEC
In and Out of NVEC again today for $1 per share gain. Should have stayed
longer, but I was stopped out.
JAC
yup still got GROW from yesterday.. sold the shares i got yesterday for a
12.34% profit at 49.70... bought 300 more shares today at 48.15 and 48.45...
holding so far.
volume passed FRV already. will see if it gets to PRV... if not i might sell
them before close since price dropped heavily yesterday near the close before
PRV was reached.
Below is my analysis so far
Bought GROW at the open 47.17
Sold COGO at open - wash
Sold MED at open - wash
Stopped out on PRXI - about 7% gain
Screwed up the courage and bought IAAC at 10 am - 20.60
And another longer term hold HRZ 4 days ago - 30.20
Oh, and I think you mean you'llsee if GROW reaches PV - peaking volume.
PRV is pro rata volume. A way to determine if the bar you're in right now will
reach a previous bar's volume to help anticipate (?) price change or
continuation.
yeah i meant to say PV
hurry up and get on msn already
IAAC
With our Final Update of IAAC (seventh day), we see Price Break the Up Tape
on our 30 minute chart (Red Circle). Also, note the Stochastics beginning to
turn down on the daily chart. Seeing the Stochastics begin to 'roll over' at
EOD, indicates a 'confirmation' of sorts that we made the correct decision
earlier in the day. Since our entry point ($18.20 USD) price has moved in excess
of 20%. When we see Price break the tape (on the 30 minute), we sell - receiving
a fill price of $21.98 USD. our profit on this trade (across seven days) yielded
$3.78 per share.
There you have it. A walk through of the IAAC trade beginning the night before
entering the trade, right up through the sale.
Enjoy the weekend, everybody.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: NVEC
Quote from Spydertrader:
If by the above you mean to say, "An FTT occurs during a Right To Left (RTL) Traverse and not a Left To Right Traverse (LTR)" then yes, you have correctly interpreted my explanation.
- Spydertrader
Spyder i have a few questions about the IAAC trade that I'm hoping u can help
me out with.
If we entered seven days ago would we not have exited on the 19th when the tape
on the daily was broken on decreasing price with increasing volume. And then
look for a new entry on either the 20th or 21th.
What alerts you in advance to start looking for an exit using the 30min tape
being broken. The reason i ask is because the intraday taping channels are
broken many times simply just because of the sideways movement around lunchtime,
so when should I being using this channel break for exits.
I am very interested in when to use the 30min taping channel exit, as in this
case it would have saved a trader nearly 4%. This is a problem for me as i tend
to experience a stock running up 4-5% in a single day but then come right back
down. Any early warning signs for me to watch for would be a great help.
TIA
taped exit
Quote from TimDog:
If we entered seven days ago would we not have exited on the 19th when the tape on the daily was broken on decreasing price with increasing volume. And then look for a new entry on either the 20th or 21th.
Quote from TimDog:
What alerts you in advance to start looking for an exit using the 30min tape being broken. The reason i ask is because the intraday taping channels are broken many times simply just because of the sideways movement around lunchtime, so when should I being using this channel break for exits.
Quote from TimDog:
I am very interested in when to use the 30min taping channel exit, as in this case it would have saved a trader nearly 4%. This is a problem for me as i tend to experience a stock running up 4-5% in a single day but then come right back down. Any early warning signs for me to watch for would be a great help.
TIA
__________________
Re: taped exit
Yes that definitely helps.
Quote from Spydertrader:
I hope you found the above information useful.
- Spydertrader [/B]
That IAAC trade really helped me clarify some things. Thanks for posting
those daily charts. And please don't hestitate to do so again.
If I could add a little something about IAAC's price exit, here is a thought I
have introduced before. If you look at my chart you will notice that I have the
20, 50, and 200 day averages plotted. Once a stock has ducted below the 200 for
awhile, it may have a tendancy to meet resistance when coming up to it again.
So, given your gains and the expected resistance, it made perfect sense to get
out. The neat thing is that you had "seen" the resistance, without the line
plotted.
I have a different sort of question. Listening to Jack talk in Tucson, I
notice that his beliefs about the market are very different then the common
paradigm. It is refreshing.
Some of the interesting dominant beliefs I have heard Jack state are paraphrased
below (Jack, correct me if I am incorrect.) These are the ones that stuck with
me.
The market is a known quantity.
The market is like a vast ocean of money and all you need to do is turn on the
faucet.
I would love to hear what Sypdertrader's dominant beliefs are about the market.
The FTT
Quote from OpenTrader:
I would love to hear what Spydertrader's dominant beliefs are about the market.
__________________
SPAR
300 SPAR at 23.75.
JAC
200 shares on SPAR at 23.75
Bought 1000 SPAR at 23.98.
- Huskydog
Tried LQDT, but didn't get filled. I was not using a market order for this trade.
Quote from Huskydog:
Bought 1000 SPAR at 23.98.
- Huskydog
woof woof!
SPAR Question
Hi, I"m new to this system and I think I get it.
Just wondering, what day did SPAR enter into your universe?
I've been using Spydertrader's universe he posted last and just today started
adding to it myself and I didn't get SPAR today.
If anyone could post the current final universe I'd appreciate it too.
Thanks,
ML
My current FU (using the beginner methods described at the end of Journal I):
BITS CHDX COGO DTLK FTEK GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ KQDT NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE SIRF
SNCR SPAR SYX UCTT XING
I haven't been as diligent about trading lately as I should have been due to a
few issues, so others may have a better updated list.
- Huskydog
In ANGN on Friday at $14.05 - it is taking off now, a pleasure to see.
Now let's see if I can maintain a daily perspective and exit on the 30.
GROW
I'm completely out of GROW. Really good run. Who is left?
JAC
WOW!! GROW is something to watch (to bad that is all I get to do since I did not get in on it!) But it is very encouraging.
Quote from OpenTrader:
WOW!! GROW is something to watch (to bad that is all I get to do since I did not get in on it!) But it is very encouraging.
SPAR closed at 35.36, which is up 5.75% from my entry price, which was listed
in real time. Volume, the MACD histogram, and stochastics are all looking great
and confirm the price action. I continue to hold all of my shares of SPAR.
- Huskydog
Nicely Done
Great trades today everyone. Nicely Done.
- Spydertrader
__________________
IAAC continues.
Short 500 UCTT at 18.25 with a tight stop.
- Huskydog
Took 500 SPAR off at 24.44. Still holding the other 500.
- Huskydog
Covered the UCTT at 18.25. The stock just wouldn't drop when the futures were
tanking.
- Huskydog
entered IAAC and SYX this morning. Out of SPAR.
JAC
In with CCRT at $31.90.
Have a great day guys...off to work!
I also shorted UCTT at 18.37. I am still in though. Looking at the daily I am anticipating a break downward.
spydertrader,
just wanted to say thanks for the info u have posted in your various journals...
especially the channel stuff. i am a big multiple time frame guy, and found it
very easy to incorporate the channels in all my timeframes to identify high
probability/low risk entries.
keep up the good work!
Quick question:
For signal to go long, price must be higher than the high of the previous day or
the closing price?
Thanks,
ML
Quote from l12:
For signal to go long, price must be higher than the high of the previous day or the closing price?
__________________
I have a question regarding how I should hold into a retrace, and what
signals I should look for when exiting for a wash or loss.
With NVEC I bought on March 23rd on FRV from DU and it met all the proper buying
conditions at the time. Following day there was price improvement(closed down
though), and barely made FRV by EOD. Today price dropped further on decreasing
red volume. The current gaussian trend is B/\R, and appears it is in DU again.
At this point should I still be holding, and what should I look for in regards
to price and volume(gaussian formation) to make this decision.
Also LQDT seems to have the same situation. Correct me if I am
wrong pls.
Quote from Monkman:
At this point should I still be holding, and what should I look for in regards to price and volume(gaussian formation) to make this decision.
__________________
Quote from Monkman:
At this point should I still be holding, and what should I look for in regards to price and volume(gaussian formation) to make this decision.
Quote from UriKai:
So, after price peaked on 3/25,
Love the 3 yrs of journals, very rare here. Simple question. Has anyone ever
written an excel calcualtion of the dryup vol calculation with qcharts. So in
theory someone could look up the dryup volume history say for a stock that is in
the current universe but for 1 yr ago? I apologize if it was posted before.
Rehoboth
Excel for DU look back
Quote from Rehoboth:
Love the 3 yrs of journals, very rare here. Simple question. Has anyone ever written an excel calculation of the dryup vol calculation with qcharts. So in theory someone could look up the dryup volume history say for a stock that is in the current universe but for 1 yr ago? I apologize if it was posted before.
__________________
Spyder, you are absolutely correct. However, my intent of the question was
just to see the evolution of dryup volume for a stock on a day to day basis.
Rehoboth
in hwcc 25.77
Sold the SPAR at 23.27 when my stop was triggered. I lost 71 cents on that
piece.
- Huskydog
out of hwcc at 26.35, might go back in later
Spydertrader
Hi Spydertrader, thanks for your clarification of my previous question.
Any chance you can post your current final universe for me?
I am new and testing this system.
Thanks,
ML
i like gfig here for a swing trade - very powerful chart in an upward
channel.
great rr since stop can be just under 66.
anyone else looking at her?
Re: Spydertrader
Quote from l12:
Any chance you can post your current final universe for me?
__________________
Added more IAAC today 26.40
JAC
Sold half of position in IAAC at 27.37
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Sold half of position in IAAC at 27.37
I will be on vacation until early next week and I have closed all my
positions. With that said, I did jump in for a quick pop up today, but I was
also looking for an exit. Arrows show entries and exits
JAC
in ININ @ 16.12
Why ININ?
Quote from chasedream:
in ININ @ 16.12
Here is an Universe stock to keep an eye on tomorrow.
Good trading.
AGreed, bits is on my hotlist also....
Final Universe following End of Month Cull:
BITS BTJ FRG GROW GRRF IAAC ININ MEH NVEC PRXI OMRI PCCC SIM SPAR SNCR SYX
Dry Up List:
BITS FRG NVEC OMRI SYX
Spyder or anyone who has SCT experience...
I have two questions that I haven't been able to find a definative answer for.
First, does the color of the bar of the FTT matter at all? And secondly, does a
gaussian formation in the same direction as the trend have any signifigance? I
was watching a stock that was in a down trend this morning when a very nice R2R
formed. Is that simply a sign of continuation?
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from thenewguy:
...First, does the color of the bar of the FTT matter at all? And secondly, does a gaussian formation in the same direction as the trend have any signifigance? I was watching a stock that was in a down trend this morning when a very nice R2R formed. Is that simply a sign of continuation?
Gaussian
Another Gaussian attachment ...
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thank you both for taking the time to answer.
I can't remember what stock it was that I saw it in this morning, but here is
another example.
Is this gaussian "meaningless" or do I not understand what an R2R is?
Thanks,
TNG
TNG -
Here is my take on SIRF today. It really helps to draw the channels with points
1,2 and 3.
The first pt1,2,3 channel lasted from 10:50am to the FTT at 2:55pm. You see the
non dom traverse starting with the FTT at 1:00pm - just when everyone came back
from lunch. This was on decreasing black volume. Then increasing red volume came
in and gave us new lows.
At 2pm we had a volatility expansion of the channel and then went right into a
lateral traverse on lower volume. Red volume picked up again to give us the low
at 2:55pm.
We then had an important CHANGE. Signaled by the FTT and a non dom traverse on
decreasing black volume - just as we expect and anticipate. Then the BO comes on
INCreasing black volume - heading to a new pt 2 of the new up channel.
I hope this helps.
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
TNG -
Here is my take on SIRF today. It really helps to draw the channels with points 1,2 and 3.
The first pt1,2,3 channel lasted from 10:50am to the FTT at 2:55pm. You see the non dom traverse starting with the FTT at 1:00pm - just when everyone came back from lunch. This was on decreasing black volume. Then increasing red volume came in and gave us new lows.
At 2pm we had a volatility expansion of the channel and then went right into a lateral traverse on lower volume. Red volume picked up again to give us the low at 2:55pm.
We then had an important CHANGE. Signaled by the FTT and a non dom traverse on decreasing black volume - just as we expect and anticipate. Then the BO comes on INCreasing black volume - heading to a new pt 2 of the new up channel.
I hope this helps.
-Mike
TNG -
Try looking at the chart at 15 and 30 min also.
This should help with the 'Coarse' level gaussians and channels.
Some stocks don't have enough volume to use the 5 min chart.
-Mike
Avi,
On your chart where the B2B is, couldn't that have easily been a R2R too? since
there's higher red volume bars at those areas.. and you can just make the same
\/ volume, but with red to red instead of black to black?
that's what's confusing me, 'cuz there's so many black and red bars, you can
basically draw any conclusions you want.
hopefully spyder will clarify this some for me.
Re: Gaussian
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Gaussian attachment ...
- Spydertrader
Quote from chiefraven:
Avi,
On your chart where the B2B is, couldn't that have easily been a R2R too? since there's higher red volume bars at those areas.. and you can just make the same \/ volume, but with red to red instead of black to black?
that's what's confusing me, 'cuz there's so many black and red bars, you can basically draw any conclusions you want.
hopefully spyder will clarify this some for me.
Quote from chiefraven:
Avi,
On your chart where the B2B is, couldn't that have easily been a R2R too?
__________________
Bot 1000 SPAR at 24.00.
- Huskydog
Sold 1000 SPAR at 24.60.
- Huskydog
SPAR
Quote from husky:
Bot 1000 SPAR at 24.00. Sold 1000 SPAR at 24.60.
__________________
GROW
Bought 500 shs of GROW today at $29.80 .. Sold at $31.90 for a very nice one
day profit..
Volume had exceeded Peak Volume.. time to head for the hills.
Hope others had similar profits today. It was quite a day !!
Whew ! We need more of them !
Regards to all..
Ron In Tucson
Bought and sold GROW today for a nice quick profit. Considered IAAC, but did
not bite.
JAC
in PRFT @20.28 still holding
wow GROW, i hope no one was in that one
RTL - daily is around 28$
ANy takers?
Quote from thething:
wow GROW, i hope no one was in that one
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
I got out right before it went South.
__________________
In SPAR and ININ.
In and out of GROW again today. I also picked up some SPAR.
Have a good holiday,
JAC
Spyder, i know in futures you use strech/squeeze, DOM, YM and a few others to
help in seeing an FTT sooner. I was wondering if there are any other leading
indicators for us to use in equities other than price, volume, and channels.
Also, i have read a few times that a flaw has a different volume level than an
FTT. From what i understand, a flaw tends to have lower volume than an FTT.
Could you give a brief outline of what kind of VOL% levels would indicate a flaw
and an FTT. I know this will be different for every stock, but i am only looking
to get an idea of what levels we would be looking for.
Quote from TimDog:
Spyder, i know in futures you use strech/squeeze, DOM, YM and a few others to help in seeing an FTT sooner. I was wondering if there are any other leading indicators for us to use in equities other than price, volume, and channels.
Quote from TimDog:
Also, i have read a few times that a flaw has a different volume level than an FTT. From what i understand, a flaw tends to have lower volume than an FTT. Could you give a brief outline of what kind of VOL% levels would indicate a flaw and an FTT. I know this will be different for every stock, but i am only looking to get an idea of what levels we would be looking for.
__________________
Final Universe
Quote from Spydertrader:
BITS COGO DTLK FTEK GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MIKR NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE SIM SIRF SNCR SYX XING
- Spydertrader
Re: Final Universe
Quote from UriKai:
I am wondering if you still keep the following in your Final Universe?
__________________
Re: Re: Final Universe
Quote from Spydertrader:
I hadn't yet deleted those stocks when I posted my Final Universe last time. I have since deleted all symbols without rank.
- Spydertrader
Back to the Dominican Republic
__________________
Have a safe and wonderful trip Spyder!
Hope you don't come across too many High Volume Stalls....
Have a great trip...
Spyder,
Have a great trip.
Please have several for me.
Anyone playing ALY? $17.46
Quote from virgintrader:
Anyone playing ALY? $17.46
Agreed on OMRI--looks like a nice setup for tomorrow.
Quote from TCRhodes:
Agreed on OMRI--looks like a nice setup for tomorrow.
Quote from TCRhodes:
Agreed on OMRI--looks like a nice setup for tomorrow.
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Most of my "out of the box" wash trades are with stocks with no rank. ALY has no rank.
I did not trade equities today, but OMRI is something to take a look at.............
JAC
Hi Group,
my sincere thanks to Mr. Hershey, to Spydertrader and to all participants. These
journals provide an easy entry for learning, cover many questions that come up
and demonstrate practical application of the methods. A great resource.
Special thanks to Mischief for posting Amibroker code. Your code is very useful
and it gave me a smooth start.
After studying the equities journals and doing my research and paper trading I
recently began real trading.
Best regards and good trading to all,
Hausse
Today's trades
Entered long:
BITS @8.08
GRRF @10.92
SPAR @26.43
Triggers for me:
BITS: 7.90
BTJ: 38.56
GRRF: 10.88
PCCC: 15.05
SPAR: 26:35
PCCC stopped for 2% 40 minutes later...
I entered SPAR and thought abouts BITS. Really wanted to get in BITS, but not
enough volume for me.
JAC
Re: Today's trades
Quote from TokyoWarrior:
Entered long:
BITS @8.08
GRRF @10.92
SPAR @26.43
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
I entered SPAR and thought abouts BITS. Really wanted to get in BITS, but not enough volume for me.
JAC
in XING@$18.20
Was watching BITS and PCCC this morning, but they both failed to reach pro
rata FRV prior to 11:30, so I am passing.
ININ looked good on the first several 30min bars, but volume never showed up.
Looks like BITS is taking off and will hit FRV by EOD.
Good trade to those who took it.
JAC
SIRF
__________________
SIRF
According to Briefing.com, SIRF's earnings announcement is Thursday April 19, after the market close (i.e. tomorrow! if you're reading this Wed night)
on my chart sirf looks like a fbo?
Did anyone else see JADE go??
That's a trade I'm sore I missed!!
I notice volume inconsistencies in QCharts between the reported total volume
figure and adding the volume of 30 min. bars.
For example, right now for CECE I have a total figure of 39030 and when adding
the volume of the 30 min. bars I get 23370.
I tend to think the total figure is correct because I find it also with other
sources.
Does anyone know what to do to get accurate volume on the 30 min. chart?
Edit: I meant CECE, not DXPE.
Quote from virgintrader:
in XING@$18.20
Bought
DXPE 42.48
ICE 132.42
DXPE
Quote from hausse:
Bought
DXPE 42.48
ICE 132.42
Thanks TokyoWarrior.
I'm holding both of them because of their volume increases.
Later I bought OMTR at 18.49 and sold it at 18.54 for a wash because the volume
didn't pick up.
FYI, DXPE reports on Tuesday's close.
Hello fellow traders!
I just wanted to touch base with folks here since I received so much positive
support and feedback when I started trading Spydertrader's Equities method.
I've updated my journal with a bit of a self-discovery statement that occurred
in April of this year. It briefly touches on what I found positive about my
experience here. I believe that someone looking at the Spydertrader method might
be able to get at the essence of applying it to other areas if they read that
paragraph of my statement. Hopefully the whole statement will prove motivational
to everyone. Date of post is: 04-19-07 07:04 PM
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=76
Quote from johnpinochet:
Hello fellow traders!
I just wanted to touch base with folks here since I received so much positive support and feedback when I started trading Spydertrader's Equities method.
I've updated my journal with a bit of a self-discovery statement that occurred in April of this year. It briefly touches on what I found positive about my experience here. I believe that someone looking at the Spydertrader method might be able to get at the essence of applying it to other areas if they read that paragraph of my statement. Hopefully the whole statement will prove motivational to everyone. Date of post is: 04-19-07 07:04 PM
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=76
Quote from johnpinochet:
... I haven't even looked at any of the futures stuff he is teaching. For the time being that would be too complex.
Quote from Spydertrader:
[b]The FTT works in any market, on any time frame (provided sufficient liquidity exists).
...
you guys have DXPE in your final universe? it's no longer in mine... didn't it fail to pass rank at the end of the month last month?
Quote from chiefraven:
you guys have DXPE in your final universe? it's no longer in mine... didn't it fail to pass rank at the end of the month last month?
OMRI at 37.85
JAC
Good move, JAC.
Exited DXPE 43.40
Bought ACOR 24.40, PCCC 14.98
Bought ACOR @24.35 and PCCC @14.94
PCCC; BO vs. FBO?
JAC
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
PCCC; BO vs. FBO?
JAC
[QUOTE]Quote from johnpinochet:
[B]Hello fellow traders!
I just wanted to touch base with folks here since I received so much positive
support and feedback when I started trading Spydertrader's Equities method.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Are you speaking of the FTT method or
something else?
If so is there anywhere a summarization?
- PMs ware welcome -
Thanky
Charly
After a promising start an uninspiring day for me.
Got stopped out of PCCC (14.5) and ACOR (23.98) and exited DXPE and ICE at
reduced profits.
Hope it went better for you all.
Quote from hausse:
After a promising start an uninspiring day for me.
Got stopped out of PCCC (14.5) and ACOR (23.98) and exited DXPE and ICE at reduced profits.
Hope it went better for you all.
Quote from virgintrader:
Didnt chase ACOR even when it went ADU by 7:30; got filled at $24. FRV at EOD but didnt peak; we'll have to see tomorrow and the next few days.
cheers
and
look to short instead playing the channels ($25 to $17 swing).
Quote from virgintrader:
Admittedly, i wasn't that excited by the look of the chart; top channel ceiling looks to be at $25 drawn from Feb high. Stoch 14 is "intertwined" Stoch 5 appears is about to cross. MACD is at -0.30 (-0.26 prior day).
cheers and thanks
Quote from Charly:
[QUOTE]Quote from johnpinochet:
[B]Hello fellow traders!
I just wanted to touch base with folks here since I received so much positive support and feedback when I started trading Spydertrader's Equities method.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Are you speaking of the FTT method or
something else?
If so is there anywhere a summarization?
- PMs ware welcome -
Thanky
Charly
got into FRPT at 22.08 with 900 shares today.
i got FRPT from dong the entire market culling... and it reached dryup low band
by 10:15..... and later at the close, it reached FRV so i held it..
well guess what?
this stocks went all the way up to 25.59 in the afterhour becase of this HUGE
news:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...omktNews&rpc=44
I am still holding eventhough i could've got out afterhour with $3,000
I might hold this one for a bit depending on how well it performs tomorrow.
that was some unbelievable luck right there. haha
This might be a stock to keep an eye on tomorrow. The news just came out
afterhour today so not everyone knows about it, not to mention the shorts that
were in this will have to cover after the stock shot up 18%... could be a real
nasty squeeze and an interesting stock to keep an eye on tomorrow.
There are many stocks in the "Energy-Other" group like JASO, SOLF, SPWR, FSLR
that are on nice runs w/ high oil prices/green emphasis.. are you guys breaking
from the discipline of the FU to take profits from these types of hot sectors?
Keep the posts going..many of us are just watching trying to learn.
Quote from chiefraven:
got into FRPT at 22.08 with 900 shares today.
i got FRPT from dong the entire market culling... and it reached dryup low band by 10:15..... and later at the close, it reached FRV so i held it..
well guess what?
this stocks went all the way up to 25.59 in the afterhour becase of this HUGE news:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...omktNews&rpc=44
I am still holding eventhough i could've got out afterhour with $3,000
Quote from chiefraven:
that was some unbelievable luck right there. haha
Watchlist for Tuesday morning:
BITS
GRRF
IAAC
MEH
MIKR
SYX
Quote from virgintrader:
oops..here is the chart!
I watch today
ANAD
AOB
BITS
CECE
GROW
OMTR
SILC (bought)
SYX
Our differences could be due to the data source. I use Quotes-Plus data.
Active morning. I bought
BTJ 37.26
CHDX 20.06
MEH 13.85
Exited SILC 24.15
That SILC exit hurt. Small profit but had I reacted faster at the open it'd be a
large profit. Could have, would have, should have... leads nowhere.
MEH
The only trade I took today:
MEH @13.82 -300 shares.
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
PCCC; BO vs. FBO?
JAC
here's my performance from today:
in IDC @ 27.38 out @ 28.00
in MYE @ 22.48 out @ 22.50
in FRO @ 36.70 out @ 37.25
in HUBG @ 36.89 out @ 36.31
in SMTL @ 11.20 out @11.08
in GSIC @ 23.50 out @ 23.40
in SCHN @ 51.34 out @ 53.13
in ACW @ 15.20 out @ 15.55
in CHDX @ 20.32 out @ 20.23
up $1,050 for the day.
had two big losers for the day, namely: HUBG and STML. some small winners and
losses... but also a few BIG winners: SCHN, ACW, IDC, and FRO
these are stocks i got out of the initial universe.
eventhough i traded 9 stocks today.... but at any given time, i never had more
than 4-5 stocks at a time.... so some of these positions were closed out before
another one is initiated.
Quote from chiefraven:
here's my performance from today:
__________________
Left early yesterday and exited my positions. Missed some further gains but
it was ok.
Out BTJ 39.41 near upper trendline.
CHDX 20.27
MEH 14.00
MEH
Just exited MEH @14.51 = 5% profit.
Good luck to everyone else.
Getting into ctrp....
Glad that you made more from MEH, TokyoWarrior.
Bought AOB 10.80
In the spirit of iterative refinement I like to mention what entry trigger I
use. Not that I am an authority but some may find it of interest.
In addition to monitoring for volume rising above the lower band I monitor for
30 minute bars with double the volume of the 30 bar average volume. That means,
should there be such a bar I have a signal also if the lower band was not
exceeded. The price improvement, MACD and Stochastic filters remain the same. I
find this quite useful for the Jack Hershey/Spydertrader method and also for my
other stock activities.
Sounds like a good way to use volume. May I ask what you use for real time
volume? I have been using Qcharts but early morning volume feeds are terrible,
sometimes as much as half of what is reported elsewhere.
Quote from ph11l1p:
Sounds like a good way to use volume. May I ask what you use for real time volume? I have been using Qcharts but early morning volume feeds are terrible, sometimes as much as half of what is reported elsewhere.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I use Qcharts as well, but have my broker feed (MBT) as back up. This morning Qcharts data was horrible.
- S
pydertrader
Quote from ph11l1p:
Sounds like a good way to use volume. May I ask what you use for real time volume? I have been using Qcharts but early morning volume feeds are terrible, sometimes as much as half of what is reported elsewhere.
Qcharts
Nkhoi posted
this tool with respect to locating a faster Qcharts Server.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Final Universe Update
Final Universe
BITS BTJ CECE CHDX FRG GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC IIG ININ JADE JSDA LEND MEH OMRI ROCM
SNCR SYX
The above list of 19 symbols represents my current Final Universe. The only
unranked stock is SNCR, but it will regain rank with the next few days.
If anyone has any other ranked stocks I may have missed, feel free to
post them.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Final Universe Update
Quote from Spydertrader:
Final Universe
BITS BTJ CECE CHDX FRG GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC IIG ININ JADE JSDA LEND MEH OMRI ROCM SNCR SYX
The above list of 19 symbols represents my current Final Universe. The only unranked stock is SNCR, but it will regain rank with the next few days. If anyone has any other ranked stocks I may have missed, feel free to post them.
- Spydertrader
Chart didn't upload. Try again...
Again it is not there. Have to figure out how that works.
Quote from hausse:
Thanks for posting that list.
Quote from hausse:
May I ask why you have LEND in there? It doesn't look like it fulfills the RS and EPS rank requirements. What am I missing?
Quote from hausse:
I have these in addition to your list:
DXPE, FRG, ICE, MTOX, OMTR and a couple of others which are below the required volume.
Quote from hausse:
Again it is not there. Have to figure out how that works.
__________________
i have FRPT and BONT in the final universe as well. both of these came from
the entire market scan a month back or so... and they continued to be one of the
ranked stocks this month.
may i ask when and how you got GMKT, JADE, JSDA, IIG ? in addition, i had BITS a
while ago but i think i deleted it last month because it failed to maintain
rank... and since it wasn't in my last month's basket, i didn't run the rankscan
on BITS.
Quote from chiefraven:
i have FRPT and BONT in the final universe as well. both of these came from the entire market scan a month back or so... and they continued to be one of the ranked stocks this month.
Quote from chiefraven:
may i ask when and how you got GMKT, JADE, JSDA, IIG ? in addition, i had BITS a while ago but i think i deleted it last month because it failed to maintain rank... and since it wasn't in my last month's basket, i didn't run the rankscan on BITS.
__________________
If it might help, one more in my list: TRCR
And greetings to everyone here
Chiefraven mentioning BONT prompted me to look into EPS ranks a bit. BONT's
chart looks great but I have an EPS rank of 48 for it. That rank comes from
Quotes-Plus. EPS rank is not a raw number but a calculated one. Each provider of
an EPS rank seems to use a different proprietary method of calculation resulting
in different ranks for otherwise great stocks and presenting traders with
different stocks when running scans. I believe it was William O'Neil who started
calculating EPS ranks.
So far I have yet to find a data provider that discloses its proprietary EPS
rank formula. That in turn makes me doubt the validity of the ranks. I don't
really know what I work with, no matter what data provider I use.
As a trader I am interested in finding stocks that qualify no matter what rank
number a data provider assigns.
I ran a scan with the usual criteria but with a minimum EPS rank of 45 and got
several symbols that look absolutely qualifying with strong uptrends, lively and
cycling price behaviour but their EPS rank wasn't as high as we normally want.
I have the suspicion that the EPS rank number might not be as important as I
used to think because it says different things depending on the data provider.
I like to ask what you all think about this matter. What exactly you hope to
obtain from an EPS rank? And do you know what your EPS ranks mean, formula
disclosed? Etc.
Quote from hausse:
I like to ask what you all think about this matter. What exactly you hope to obtain from an EPS rank? And do you know what your EPS ranks mean, formula disclosed? Etc.
__________________
500 IAAC @ 23.09
i knew hershey traders got into IAAC... i was like... hmm who could be buying this choppy ass 30min IAAC chart haha.... dont worry guys i got 840 shares myself hehe
Quote from chiefraven:
i knew hershey traders got into IAAC... i was like... hmm who could be buying this choppy ass 30min IAAC chart haha.... dont worry guys i got 840 shares myself hehe
i'm also in FRO, ALY, and just got into RCNI
that was a bad ass shake out that just happened in IAAC. had me scared
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
500 IAAC @ 23.09
Quote from virgintrader:
nicely done! crazy thinly traded stock!
Quote from thething:
I know, I just can't trade iaac
screwed around with grow this morning
man why didn't i buy jsda.. i looked at it and decided the daily chart was too choppy to risk getting in on this trade.. hehe darn it !
Re: JDSA
Quote from chiefraven:
man why didn't i buy jsda.. i looked at it and decided the daily chart was too choppy to risk getting in on this trade.. hehe darn it !
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
LOL..those 2 like the hot twins on prom nite!
Didnt chase IAAC got filled at 23.85 during the mini shakeout.
regards
anyone still in IAAC?
Quote from chiefraven:
anyone still in IAAC?
It has happened before.
everything is going down with the futures, so it seems
Quote from tradingbug:
I jumped ship at around 2.....formation along with gaussian vol helped. I will check on it over the next few days to see what happens....i wouldnt be suprised if it shook me out and cruised back up
Re: FRPT
Quote from chiefraven:
I have FRPT and BONT in the final universe as well.
__________________
Jack and Spydertrader....
Thank you Thank you Thank you.
Just wanted to post my interpretation of BONT.
comments, criticism, questions, all welcome.
Thank you to everyone participating in these unbelievable journals.
RNO looks like it may be interesting soon.
Rank: 3.32
Score: 2
In Dry Up.
open question for anyone out there,
at what point do you find it helpful to draw a new channel (in the same
direction) or will it work out the same way if you just keep increasing the
channel with a parallel on increased volatility?
tia.
Quote from appletoast:
At what point do you find it helpful to draw a new channel (in the same direction) or will it work out the same way if you just keep increasing the channel with a parallel on increased volatility?
__________________
anybody shorting out there?
the FTTs just started to register for me over the weekend.
anyone care to share their short experiences?
=]
thank you, Spyder.
you're the man.
i have an alternate list of "quality" companies that have rank.
they deviate from the standards that Jack promotes.
i don't want to cloud up anything or 'mess' anybody up with additional stocks.
let me know if i should post them.
as you say... YMMV
=]
Quote from appletoast:
let me know if i should post them.
__________________
Ticker Rank
ARSD 5.92
BONT 3.34
BWLRF 4.63
CMGI 5.18
DXPE 4.6
EGR 5.46
HAYZ 6.72
KRSL 8.57
MOVI 6.63
MTOX 4.9
ORCH 5.34
POGS 5.2
RNO 3.32
SIF 4.15
SILC 5.39
SNKI 4.45
SORL 4.78
TGX 6.25
TROY 6.03
VII 4.55
happy trading
Quote from appletoast:
happy trading
__________________
Shite !
Amen to that ...
JADE
__________________
that FTT you pointed out doesn't come with big volume though? i thought FTT
usually occur when the volume is big.... otherwise, why isn't the candle prior
to the one you pointed out a FTT?
why is that candle a ftt while the prior candles are not?
Quote from chiefraven:
that FTT you pointed out doesn't come with big volume though? i thought FTT usually occur when the volume is big.... ?
Quote from chiefraven:
otherwise, why isn't the candle prior to the one you pointed out a FTT?
Quote from chiefraven:
why is that candle a ftt while the prior candles are not?
__________________
OMRI
__________________
Quote from chiefraven:
that FTT you pointed out doesn't come with big volume though? i thought FTT usually occur when the volume is big.... otherwise, why isn't the candle prior to the one you pointed out a FTT?
why is that candle a ftt while the prior candles are not?
Spyder,
We posted at the same time. LOL
JAC
OMRI - price moving higher on lower volume?
Re: Omri Volume
Quote from Haroki:
OMRI - price moving higher on lower volume?
__________________
Oops, hadn't drawn any TL's for that....
So one should expect lower volume until we see a BO? Then inc. price and vol
after....
Quote from Haroki:
So one should expect lower volume until we see a BO? Then inc. price and vol after....
__________________
Yikes! I was just getting ready to jump on board CECE at 10:05 EST when the plunge hit.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. Also, see attached.
- Spydertrader
Monday
Monday Dry up Stocks
CHDX IAAC LEND MEH OMRI SYX
Also, keep an eye on OMTR
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Charly:
would someone let me know where to look for the Gaussian's formulars - TradeStation version?
__________________
Can someone pls clarify:
When a stock shows up on the watchlist for DU and it doesnt do it the next day
BUT the indicators are aligning for a good set up (MACD trending towards 0;
stoch almost crossing 50)..
Do we still have to use the DU numbers to dictate our entries?
OMTR is a good example; it showed up on the DU list the last time about 8
trading days ago but the set up wasn't great. However, as Spydie pointed out
from his last post, its looking good sitting on the RTL as if to FTT.
thanks for the response.
Quote from virgintrader:
Do we still have to use the DU numbers to dictate our entries?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Using PRV Volume, one can determine which (at the present time) controls Price. Once one knows which Trend (up or down) Influences Price the most, one can then know what to anticipate in terms of Price and Volume.
- Spydertrader
You're not alone.
This is also where I 'mess up'.
Quote from Haroki:
You're not alone.
This is also where I 'mess up'.
Did anyone play HANS prior to today's cc?
Monster volume today; will it BO in the next few days? Change in volume trend
against the ST trend will lead to a BO in the current 5 mo consolidation?
Did anyone have GROW's earnings release on their radar today?
Could not get any financial information for it... big gap down... ouch!
Quote from gpzany:
Did anyone have GROW's earnings release on their radar today?
Could not get any financial information for it... big gap down... ouch!
yikes...hope the burn wasnt too
bad.
Here is HANS.
To BO or to FTT. Massive volume = breakout of consolidation?
hey virgintrader,
i have been using mischief's scripts for a while so am following the basic
methodology pre channels and all the rest of the intermediate and advanced
stuff.
Still in testing so no damage done, but makes it frustrating when you can't find
earnings dates for some of the stocks in the FU...
cheers.
Quote from gpzany:
hey virgintrader,
i have been using mischief's scripts for a while so am following the basic methodology pre channels and all the rest of the intermediate and advanced stuff.
Still in testing so no damage done, but makes it frustrating when you can't find earnings dates for some of the stocks in the FU...
cheers.
Thanks JAC,
I've got most of them, just some I have trouble with... like GROW...
I suppose we could cull off symbols that we can't find data for...
Quote from gpzany:
Thanks JAC,
I've got most of them, just some I have trouble with... like GROW...
I suppose we could cull off symbols that we can't find data for...
shorted both chdx & iaac
Quote from virgintrader:
Did anyone play HANS prior to today's cc?
Monster volume today; will it BO in the next few days? Change in volume trend against the ST trend will lead to a BO in the current 5 mo consolidation?
Earnings
Quote from tradingbug:
In terms of iterative refinement, maybe entering stocks that have earnings announcements during the day would not be good plays to enter.
We
covered this a few years back.
See
this post for the following quote:
Quote from Spydertrader in Journal I:
Jack has advised not holding a stock during earnings announcements.
__________________
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Don't give up quite yet........you can always look for information on each individual company's website. I do it all the time. There was a utility posted in J2 that used yahoo/clearstation data to help cull stocks and check earnings dates. That may be helpful since you could enter a large number of symbols and get the available dates fast.
JAC
http://www.tradethenews.com/weekly-calendar.asp
this is also a good website to check for earning stocks. Now, the thing is,
neither this site, earnings.com, yahoo, zacks.com, or clearstation are
full-proof. as sometimes earning dates get changed and one source might not have
updated on their end... so i usually run the utility you guys were talking
about.... i run all 4 sites, and check the company in yahoo to see if there is a
headline about a company announcing their earnings at what time... and i also
use the site i pasted above as a quick way to weed out some stocks.
also, when you run the utilities, dont just check for company with earnings of
the same date of your trading date.... remember to check the ones with previous
day's date.... a lot of times earnings come out at the afterhour in the previous
day... and price can get pretty volatile at the open the next day, because
generally there are 2 ways to play earnings, some people get in at 4.30 or 5pm
right when the earnings come out, while others wait for the next day to see how
the stock is trading in the premarket, or even right after it open the next day
before they enter into the stock.
Just something to watch out for.
I have made it my mission to weed out these earning stocks, because i'm
generally pretty consistent, but when i do make the mistake of getting into an
earning stock and think that it's going to go up, suddenly the mafia at goldman
sachs turns the table on me and drops the price down 2 dollars. maybe someone is
trying to knock down the price to get more shares for themselves.. who knows....
but usually my record is pretty consistent, but when i do have a loser, it's a
big one... and 80% of the time it's because i didn't know that it was reporting
earnings.
Watch out for these timebombs. the way i see it, yo might win a few, but when
you do lose, you are going to get hurt bad. and what's the point of taking the
risk when you have no control at all.
best of luck to yall
FOMC
Just a reminder,
FOMC
Wednesday 2:15 PM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
thanks for the link chief, and good points made too...
cheers.
Re: Earnings
Quote from Spydertrader:
Check your notes, Bug.
- Spydertrader
Quote from virgintrader:
I still couldnt nail the PV down maybe because im looking too much on the "chlorophyll" level instead of the forest view when trading daily bars. I get lost when I couldn't see an "obvious" volume trend or when the indicators do not line up "perfectly".
The stock I entered today based on my read that isn't on the list is ATI @112. So far, today's volume at 9:30pst is equal or a bit more than fridays' close -166M. it has bumped off the RTL. MACD has been diverging and should most likely hit close to 0 today. The only downside is that it has yet to break $113 which is the 20MVA and for the stochs to break 50 upwards. I would expect for volume today to hit close to 2M at the current run rate and for a follow thru tomorrow to break 113 as it would appear to BO on the 7 day channel.
The price has been trending down in the last 7 days; with volume trending down as well. Ergo, the price should change over time. With price up today; i need volume to go up today and tomorrow as well (thinking out loud! lold ;=) )
cheers!
Re: JADE
Follow up to
this post.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today was great. I hope everyone caught FRPT and CHDX.
JAC
General comment, I have been using the "method" for intraday trading of AAPL
stock with some success of late. Has anyone looked at using this for
consistently trading a stock intraday?
I do not mean continuous trading like in the futures but I simply look for Point
3s or breakouts and enter trades short or long and have found some consistency.
I want to do this for several weeks but on most days, channels form over time
intraday and I can wait for just 1 or 2 nice entries. Also carryover channels
seem to work as well. I will look to add the indicators such as stoch and MACD
to see if it works in conjunction.
But bottom line most moves in the stock are in point 1 - 3 channels and follow
volume patterns.
I'm long FRPT from 22.06
got in a while ago right before it jumped to 24.50 the day before the close when
the contracts news came out... have been holding it since 4/23/07
Quote from optioncoach:
Has anyone looked at using this for consistently trading a stock intraday?
__________________
Quote from appletoast:
Ticker Rank
ARSD 5.92
BONT 3.34
BWLRF 4.63
CMGI 5.18
DXPE 4.6
EGR 5.46
HAYZ 6.72
KRSL 8.57
MOVI 6.63
MTOX 4.9
ORCH 5.34
POGS 5.2
RNO 3.32
SIF 4.15
SILC 5.39
SNKI 4.45
SORL 4.78
TGX 6.25
TROY 6.03
VII 4.55
happy trading
Quote from optioncoach:
General comment, I have been using the "method" for intraday trading of AAPL stock with some success of late. Has anyone looked at using this for consistently trading a stock intraday?
I do not mean continuous trading like in the futures but I simply look for Point 3s or breakouts and enter trades short or long and have found some consistency. I want to do this for several weeks but on most days, channels form over time intraday and I can wait for just 1 or 2 nice entries. Also carryover channels seem to work as well. I will look to add the indicators such as stoch and MACD to see if it works in conjunction.
But bottom line most moves in the stock are in point 1 - 3 channels and follow volume patterns.
Yeah I am not going to even try SCT for the daytrading but the channels line
up and present nice entries for BOs or point 3 moves. It gives me something else
to trade instead of ES and NQ using the channels.
I just have to read a couple of 1000 posts to determine what the indicators on
the bottom are for LOL
Quote from thenewguy:
That's kind of funny, actually. I was using SCT on AAPL for two or three weeks a while back. I had mediocre success, but it looked pretty good for the long term. I wasn't expecting to make a whole lot of money on it in my first two weeks, but it definately was net positive. The problem I was having with it was drilling down to every turn. I think for what you are doing it should work well, but trying to get every turn is hard mentally, even though I can see how it's possible. Personally, I think AAPL is a great choice for that kind of trading, and you can even use the ES as the YM in a limited sort of fashion, imho.
TNG
Quote from optioncoach:
Yeah I am not going to even try SCT for the daytrading but the channels line up and present nice entries for BOs or point 3 moves. It gives me something else to trade instead of ES and NQ using the channels.
I just have to read a couple of 1000 posts to determine what the indicators on the bottom are for LOL
JADE
Jade Update
__________________
Re: JADE
FYI - Today, marked JADE's all time high.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from optioncoach:
General comment, I have been using the "method" for intraday trading of AAPL stock with some success of late. Has anyone looked at using this for consistently trading a stock intraday?
But bottom line most moves in the stock are in point 1 - 3 channels and follow volume patterns.
Re: Re: JADE
Quote from Spydertrader:
FYI - Today, marked JADE's all time high.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: JADE
Quote from Haroki:
?????
Feb 21 - 12.50 ish ???
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: JADE
Quote from Spydertrader:
Ignore my previous post. Sometimes, when I log onto Qcharts, I snag a crappy data server, which gives me incorrect data. Clearly, Feb 21 is the all time high. Thanks for bringing the error to my attention.
- Spydertrader
I took this from my ESignal news service concerning JADE:
Corporate Announcement: LJ International, Inc.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu May 10 17:41:12 2007 EDT
May 10, 2007 (Wall Street Horizon via COMTEX News Network) --
Earnings Quarter: Q4
Next Earnings Date: 5/17/2007
Announcement Status: Unconfirmed
Announcement Time: Before Market
Last Confirmation Date: 5/9/2007
- Huskydog
earnings?
Spyder,
do you find that earnings tend to be strong and add a pop (like jade for
example) to trades you are in or watching?
or is it still advised for beginners to avoid trading stock's with upcoming
earnings releases?
TIA
Re: earnings?
Quote from appletoast:
do you find that earnings tend to be strong and add a pop (like jade for example) to trades you are in or watching? or is it still advised for beginners to avoid trading stock's with upcoming earnings releases?
__________________
If SPyder and the other folks dont mind, I dont want to veer off track....
Also I dont have the detail Spyder has since I look on the larger level and also
trade part of the day but would not mind doing it as it might help me way more
than it helps others lol..
SPyder is it ok if I include some intraday AAPL?
Quote from virgintrader:
Hey coach...
Mind posting an AAPL chart with annotations so it may help those (like me) who are still not getting the points 1 2 3's.
Advance thanks...
AAPL 5 minute
Quote from optioncoach:
Spyder is it ok if I include some intraday AAPL?
__________________
Re: Re: earnings?
Quote from Spydertrader:
I encourage you to review the previously posted material within all the Journals, as I have answered this question on more than one occasion.
- Spydertrader
generally we avoid earning stocks.. simply for the reason that they are very unpredicatable.... for example, if you observe earning stocks for a while, you'll notice that sometimes eventhough they reported good earnings, the price still tanks.... and sometimes they go up only to get hammer back down again.... this is the time when a lot of institutions and players with big pockets do their dirty tricks.... 'cuz they know a lot of people are dumping their money on these stocks, so they can use this time to do their manipulations. for example, they can knock the price down to a level where all the recetny buyers who just bought it at a high price can't take the price drop and forces them to sell their shares, and then the stock keep dropping, and then a few days later, they'll sweep up all the shares at the bottom and take the stock back up.... so you never know.... it's just harder to make money consistenly off earning stocks in my opinion... you might have a few big winners once in a while, but you will most definetly get a few big losers... and when you have a big losers, it's hard to let go, 'cuz you'll keep telling yourself... oh the earning is pretty good, it'll go up eventually... but then it's just a guess game of when the stock will bounce back up and a battle between whether or not you or the big institution can handle more pain... and the little guys always get hurt.
Quote from chiefraven:
generally we avoid earning stocks.. simply for the reason that they are very unpredicatable....
Re: AAPL 5 minute
Quote from Spydertrader:
Please do. Using the same methods on a different time frame definitely falls within the scope of the discussion. In the past, Gooch87 often posted his charts (he traded Equities on the five minute as well - before heading off to work).
Thanks in advance for sharing your insight.
- Spydertrader
Here is the chart for RIMM
Hi guys, Im 1 week in to trading this method and am only about 1/2 way
through reading all the material so I am nowhere near up to speed with you. Im
trying to only focus on a smaller number of stocks for now until I get a better
idea of what Im doing.
Anyways, in my opinion, IAAC seems like the best candidate of the stocks
spydertrader listed in DU from a week ago to start an uptrend soon. My reasoning
is based on its overall current price trend and volume levels.
If I see its volume hit the DU level by 11 over the next few days, and the price
is up, then thats a sign its about to start an uptrend and I should buy it?
Do you guys agree that IAAC looks very promising? ...or do you see something
else that looks more promising than IAAC and why? ...or is this completely the
wrong way to be looking at things?
Virgin, have some comments on the RIMM chart. Of course this is some
hindsight but maybe it will be helpful.
1. I see a strong volume dry up going into the end of April/beginning of MAY
after the big drop off of earnings. Not a perfect sideways move but the volume
does flatten out with price ranging between $130/$135. Reading this I would look
for the next volume move and direction for the breakout to trade.
2. Volume starts to form a valley and then picks up on April 25 and May 4.
Notice the pullback off of the April 25 th spike up stops at the 20 EMA and them
pulls back on NO volume. Volume bars start ticking higher as price moves back to
the 20 EMA and then breaks out on strong volume. I would see that as a buy
signal for a few reasons:
a. Volume comes back green and price moves higher
b. Price breaks above 20 EMA
c. If you follow candles we had two inside days before the breakout which means
further consolidation and tightening of price and volume before a breakout which
would hold once the price moves in one direction
So I think that the May 4th close at $138 is a bullish sign and it ran to $155.
that would be a POint 1 for me, and Point 2 would be last long green candle that
made a new high and I would look for potential point 3 to form if volume shows
it to be so.
Just my armchair QB 20/20 hindsight analysis...
Quote from virgintrader:
Here is the chart for RIMM
JADE
__________________
JADE
__________________
Re: JADE
[QUOTE]Quote from Spydertrader:
Thanks Spyder!
One of your pictures is worth a thousand words.
Re: JADE
Quote from Spydertrader:
After Volatility Expansions, we start looking for FTT's
Re: Re: JADE
Quote from David I:
When you posted it the day before it had successfully completed a several day traverse from the right trend line to the left - and more - it gave us a volatility expansion on that left side.
Quote from David I:
Are you saying that the 15th was a FTT?
Quote from David I:
Or are you saying we should now be on the look out for FTT's more than usual from that volatility expansion date? So that the 15th might not be but any day could be from that volatility expansion date?
Quote from David I:
The near term earnings event takes precedence on our decision making until it passes. Correct?
__________________
Quote from nicepair111:
Anyways, in my opinion, IAAC seems like the best candidate of the stocks spydertrader listed in DU from a week ago to start an uptrend soon. My reasoning is based on its overall current price trend and volume levels.
If I see its volume hit the DU level by 11 over the next few days, and the price is up, then thats a sign its about to start an uptrend and I should buy it?
Do you guys agree that IAAC looks very promising? ...or do you see something else that looks more promising than IAAC and why? ...or is this completely the wrong way to be looking at things?
Re: JADE, FTT's, On the look out for FTT's after Volatility Expansion and the
particulars about that small gap up and it turning out to be an FTT.
Thank you so much. That was very helpful and clear.
- David I
Quote from PointOne:
How did it turn out for you?
can't complain
Quote from nicepair111:
can't complain
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nicely done.
- Spydertrader
to hit DU! Good job to those who caught it!
Here is GROW at RTL. Will it FTT tomorrow?
Quote from optioncoach:
Virgin, have some comments on the RIMM chart. Of course this is some hindsight but maybe it will be helpful.
Quote from virgintrader:
Question for the group...
I missed monitoring today after watching IAAC for a LOOOOONG time!
I also got faked out with the 6% prior day down move with increasing volume thinking it would BO downwards.
What could I have done differently?
With IAAC's move today; I picked up GROW today with the anticipation that it would DU today (which it did). I will watch tomorrow for it to hit the volume levels towards FRV....
Quote from virgintrader:
Question for the group...
I missed monitoring today after watching IAAC for a LOOOOONG time!
What could I have done differently?
IAAC
Quote from nicepair111:
can't complain
__________________
FU
Would some one please post the current final universe
Thank you
Re: IAAC
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nice to see you made another buck on the IAAC trade. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
Re: FU
Quote from getnthere:
Would some one please post the current final universe
__________________
Re: FU
Thank you. Very quick question, I haven't quite found yet when I should
remove items from my FU. I've been re-scoring my FU every day and if an item's
score becomes 0, it's removed. However, I noticed that you had some items that
were 0 on your FU (MTOX for example). Did I miss something?
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: FU
Quote from spreadn00b:
Did I miss something?
__________________
Re: FU
Sorry ... I'm still working my
way through the archives. You've got a couple of pages of content in those older
journals.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. You missed the last 5 times I answered this question.
I remove ranked stocks from the Final Universe at the end of each month. A stock which fails to maintain rank has until month's end to reacquire rank, else risk finding itself deleted from the Final Universe.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
Monday
A few fish for Monday ....
DXPE GRRF ININ GRRF
- Spydertrader
__________________
PRV Tool
Click Here to learn about Quotetracker's New PRV Tool.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Monday
Quote from Spydertrader:
DXPE GRRF ININ GRRF
__________________
Re: PRV Tool
Quote from Spydertrader:
Click Here to learn about Quotetracker's New PRV Tool.
- Spydertrader
I've also created a PRV script for Amibroker if anyone is interested in getting a copy.
Quote from mischief:
I've also created a PRV script for Amibroker if anyone is interested in getting a copy.
<---- is this the smart ass
icon? lol, love it!
Re: PRV Tool
Quote from Spydertrader:
Click Here to learn about Quotetracker's New PRV Tool.
- Spydertrader
Quote from virgintrader:
Here is GROW at RTL. Will it FTT tomorrow?
Quote from virgintrader:
Here is GROW at RTL. Will it FTT tomorrow?
Quote from virgintrader:
Hope u guys caught GROW today. So much for the title of tomorrows' paper today!
TRCR did hit FRV today and is on the top of the LTL. So only picked up half a position at $15.90
CRZO BO'd today @$39; also picked up BITS at $7.68 (this is such a slow burner eh?).
Quote from virgintrader:
Hope u guys caught GROW today. So much for the title of tomorrows' paper today!
__________________
Quote from mark1:
I Traded GROW for a nice profit, also traded TRCR. That was a fast spike when it reached LBDU at 10:13, in 30 sec it went from 15.20 to 16.20.
I hate to trade such a thin volume stock.
You really need a bot to enter the order in 2 secs.
My order was way too late (20 sec late sheesh) , I sold it for a tiny profit
Quote from Spydertrader:
I sat with a couple of traders from Cleveland yesterday afternoon reviewing the various (beginner, intermediate and advanced) Journal methods, and we discussed GROW at great length. Maybe your version of Tomorrow's Newspaper omitted the GROW article. Our edition, didn't.
Maybe the trader owning GROW will post an excerpt from the conversation (although, he still blames me for turning him into an alcoholic over the weekend, so maybe he won't).
Good trading to you.
- Spydertrader
I haven't taken money off the
table yet; so im not out of the woods! lol
with this tide even the Titanic might float?
__________________
eat all,sup all pay nowt.hear all,see all say nowt. and if Thee ever have to do
'owt for nowt,always do it for thee sen.
GROW
Hi Guys, I'm in the process of reading journal two and have been paper this method for a few months. I got in GROW this morning but I was curious if people just dumped it up 22.67 near the top downtrend line on the daily even though its probably gonna hit FRV by eod? Also is anyone holding TRCR since FRV was reached?
Re: GROW
Quote from dr0833:
Hi Guys, I'm in the process of reading journal two and have been paper this method for a few months. I got in GROW this morning but I was curious if people just dumped it up 22.67 near the top downtrend line on the daily even though its probably gonna hit FRV by eod? Also is anyone holding TRCR since FRV was reached?
ANy comments?
Quote from Haroki:
ANy comments?
__________________
Nice 30...
Oops...
GROW
even though i was in a happily state of mine i do recall reading tomorrows
paper today You called it right on Spyder.
(PS) only if go to meetings are you an alcoholic.
T&T
Re: GROW
Quote from T&T:
even though i was in a happily state of mine i do recall reading tomorrows paper today You called it right on Spyder.
(PS) only if go to meetings are you an alcoholic.
__________________
Hotlist
One of many possible Hotlists for tomorrow:
ASCA CMED COGT EQY FACE HLYS IMCL TXRH ZZ
- Spydertrader
__________________
hey spyder, would you mind explaining why you are planning to concentrate on
those stocks? some i can see the reason, but why asca and some of the other
ones?
Anyone following GIGM closely? I know it is in the universe, what I mean is, does anyone on here follow it a little more attentively then others in the universe? If so, any comments on the remarkable earnings yesterday and the stock tanking? The plunge is pretty dramatic on the 1 hour chart. I don't see how anyone could have anticipated it. I believe that type of activity is par for the course with GIGM. It may have made for a very nice sell into earnings and a buy in the 14 and change area.
Hey everyone as I said before I am just paper trading however I am trying to follow the system as best as possible. On paper I purchased GROW at 21.68 and I held overnight because of FRV was surpassed. This morning it ran to 22.75 and then closed lower at 22.32. Based off my trailing stop of 5% my order was set for 21.76 just one cent off. Is anyone else still in GROW? Have there been any additional rules about selling half or two thirds of your position for instance during periods of increased volitility such as 9:30-9:45 the day after FRV is hit or anything else like that?
Quote from johnpinochet:
Anyone following GIGM closely?
Quote from dr0833:
Hey everyone as I said before I am just paper trading however I am trying to follow the system as best as possible. On paper I purchased GROW at 21.68 and I held overnight because of FRV was surpassed. This morning it ran to 22.75 and then closed lower at 22.32. Based off my trailing stop of 5% my order was set for 21.76 just one cent off. Is anyone else still in GROW? Have there been any additional rules about selling half or two thirds of your position for instance during periods of increased volitility such as 9:30-9:45 the day after FRV is hit or anything else like that?
Re: Hotlist
Quote from Spydertrader:
One of many possible Hotlists for tomorrow:
ASCA CMED COGT EQY FACE HLYS IMCL TXRH ZZ
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Hotlist
Quote from Monkman:
CMED, FACE, and ZZ. Was wondering how these stocks made it into your hotlist. I figured out how you found the others but these I have no clue.
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
I still got GROW; continue to hold it as i'm still in the black; need to see break of $23.02 for me to continue to hold.
As Spydie says...your mileage may vary.
Regards
Re: Re: Hotlist
Quote from Monkman:
Spyder,
CMED, FACE, and ZZ. Was wondering how these stocks made it into your hotlist. I figured out how you found the others but these I have no clue.
Thanks,
- Monkman
Re: Re: Re: Hotlist
Quote from Aurum:
You can use the DB I posted here to quickly cull the entire market. I use QCharts, so that's what it is tailored to work with. However, as long as you get the data in the proper format, you can use any data source.
-Au
It looks like there was a problem with some spaces in the url I entered - it
should be fixed now. Sorry for the broken link.
-Au
Final Universe
Final Universe Additions
I added NCTY to my Final Universe this evening. Some of you may have already
added it previously, but I thought I'd post the addition just in case someone
missed it.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from dr0833:
Hey everyone as I said before I am just paper trading however I am trying to follow the system as best as possible. On paper I purchased GROW at 21.68 and I held overnight because of FRV was surpassed. This morning it ran to 22.75 and then closed lower at 22.32. Based off my trailing stop of 5% my order was set for 21.76 just one cent off. Is anyone else still in GROW? Have there been any additional rules about selling half or two thirds of your position for instance during periods of increased volitility such as 9:30-9:45 the day after FRV is hit or anything else like that?
, the only regret is that I have
to study a lot now to keep up with
I forgot to say, that I don't like to sell part of my position with this sys, only if I'm forced by a thin volume
I'm in JSDA 20.68.
Still holding GMKT , rebounced from a 20.14 low , my 2% stop from entry is at
20.09
Long ININ 19.42
I sold GMKT for a wash when it failed to breakout
Sold ININ 19.86 + 2%, my reasoning: nearly filled the gap(red line) and
relative low volume on this surge.
Still holding JSDA
On grow FRV was reached on the first day and thats why I held. Today is the third day. I just sold half at 22.87 today on volume surge (5% from entry) and I am still holding half of my position. I guess tomorrow I will sell the rest. When using a time stop, on the 4th day are you selling at the market open or do you usually wait for the close?
Sold JSDA 21.86 + 5.7%
Watching LEND skyrocketing to the moon
, unfortunately without me
edit: gee JSDA has still power, I sold it because I didn't like those spikes on
the daily 16 and 18 May ...mmmm
It was a 10% rocket!!!!
stick to the sys, stick to the sys stick to the sys....
Could somebody kindly put a sock in Greenspan's mouth?
Quote from dr0833:
When using a time stop, on the 4th day are you selling at the market open or do you usually wait for the close?
__________________
Hi to board denizens,
I put in this request on another thread but perhaps this is a more appropriate
place. Could anyone give a specific link(s) or prior post(s) which have the most
detailed information available on the DOM indicator and the
rationale/methodology for the Gaussian curve-fitting of volume. I have
downloaded and/or read a large volume of material but would really appreciate
what is considered by the practitioners of the Hershey method to be the most
complete rendering of these two topics.
TIA.
lj
Quote from ljyoung:
Could anyone give a specific link(s) or prior post(s) which have the most detailed information available on the DOM indicator and the rationale/methodology for the Gaussian curve-fitting of volume.
__________________
Thanks for your help.
lj
I'm keeping an eye on AVR tomorrow.
-Au
WOOF looks like it bounced off its right trendline and is now going on increasing black volume. Lets see what happens.
Quote from dr0833:
On grow FRV was reached on the first day and thats why I held. Today is the third day. I just sold half at 22.87 today on volume surge (5% from entry) and I am still holding half of my position. I guess tomorrow I will sell the rest. When using a time stop, on the 4th day are you selling at the market open or do you usually wait for the close?
I found this in my notes from spyderT
"
We look for FRV levels on the first day we enter a long position in order to
hold a position overnight. After the first day, we would like to see increasing
volume on subsequent days. We exit after reaching Peak Volume Levels, or after 4
days, or when one of the other exit conditions exist."
- Spydertrader
He doesn't mention FRV for the following days, but he mentions increasing volume
(which basically means you d like to reach +- FRV each day ).
Someone wants to clarify the matter for us ? Is this a hard or a soft rule?
Thanks
Quote from mark1:
Someone wants to clarify the matter for us ? Is this a hard or a soft rule?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Once you arrive at learning about Gaussian Volume Formations, you'll understand how increasing black Volume refers to 'across the trend channel' and not simply "bar to bar." Journal One's 'Beginner Methods' provide a pathway, for those first starting to learn the methodology, to "get eyes on a chart" as they learn the real fundamentals behind why the system works. As a result, the answer someone gives you depends exclusively on where they sit in the learning process. A beginner might suggest a strict following of the rules, whereas an intermediate trader, might explain how one simply wants to see increasing black volume. An advanced trader might say, "as long as Price sits above the right trend line, I hold until I see red to red." A number of additional combinations exist as well for determining an exit signal.
With respect to Volume, if Volume continues to improve (as a beginner) along with Price, I wouldn't fret. Your goal now, should focus more on learning, rather than, banking profits.
- Spydertrader
Gasussians
Click Here and follow instructions for a Video of a Gaussians Discussion -
presented by Pr0Crast.
- Spydertrader
__________________
how to score the stocks
Hi everyone,
I am new to the Jack Hershey methods. I am just trying to get into it and I need
a bit of help with something.
I don´t quite understand how to split up the stocks into 7´s, 0´s and 1´s.
Can somebody please give me a quick help?
Sorry for my english. I am not a native speaker...
Regards
Jens
Re: Re: Re: Hotlist
Quote from Aurum:
You can use the DB I posted here to quickly cull the entire market. I use QCharts, so that's what it is tailored to work with. However, as long as you get the data in the proper format, you can use any data source.
-Au
Re: how to score the stocks
Quote from Morcar:
I don´t quite understand how to split up the stocks into 7´s, 0´s and 1´s.
Quote from Spydertrader:
The First list of 10 stocks comes from the bottom of the list working your way up, filtering out stocks with Volume < 200,000. The Second list of ten stocks comes from the top and working down, selecting only stocks with price gains. The Third list of 10 stocks comes from the middle of the stocktables.com chart where the volume change is zero. Take five stocks above and five below the middle zero selecting stocks that have greater than 200,000 volumes.
__________________
Hi Spydertrader,
thanks for your answer. Another question: where do I see the rank of stock after
executing the wealth lab chart script? Is the script Hershey Equity Rank v 1.1.0
still usefull or is there a newer one allready.
I really appreciate your help.
Regards,
Morcar
Questions
Quote from Morcar:
Another question: where do I see the rank of stock after executing the wealth lab chart script?
Quote from Morcar:
Is the script Hershey Equity Rank v 1.1.0 still usefull or is there a newer one allready.
__________________
Thanks a lot. Sorry to bother you with such things.
Morcar
Thanks for the video link SpyderT, downloading right now.
I'm having a blast reading Jack's "old" material, I lost the count of how many
"aha" moments I had .
Click..click everything is slowly and steadily coming together. It's truly an
experience.
Does anyone have a saved copy of the article written by Phantom of the pit on
The Futures Magazine about scaling a position in?
The article is only available for subscribers now..sons of a mother !
I read it a few years ago, but didn't save it.
TIA
Quote from mark1:
Does anyone have a saved copy of the article written by Phantom of the pit on The Futures Magazine about scaling a position in?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Here you go.
- Spydertrader
Final Universe
Current Final Universe
BITS BONT BTJ CECE CHDX DXPE FRG GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC ICE IIG ININ JADE JSDA LEND
MEH MTOX NCTY NGA OMRI OMTR ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR
I plan to delete BONT DXPE ICE ININ & OMRI from the Final Universe on Thursday
unless they reacquire rank by the end of this month.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Does anyone else like JADE today?
hehe no... i dont really like gapped up stocks too much... i got in MTOX at
25.72 and sold at 26.60 though
also in DLB, ONNN, TTEC, XING, ITWO
Re: Who likes JADE?
Quote from Ministop:
Does anyone else like JADE today?
__________________
Spydertrader,
Below is a quote from the "Hershey Universe News" blog:
http://hersheyuniverse.blogspot.com...01_archive.html
The three groups of fine indicators are: the DOM, the tick charts and the
stretch squeeze indicator. See the sweep paper for how these are used and how
they were designed.
Can you give me a link for the "sweep paper"?
TIA,
lj
Sweeps
Quote from ljyoung:
Can you give me a link for the "sweep paper"?
__________________
Re: Re: Who likes JADE?
Quote from Spydertrader:
I didn't like JADE when you posted the question (gapped at the open), but have kept my eye on the 30 minute just in case the gap fills and we see a turn.
- Spydertrader
Re: Sweeps
Quote from Spydertrader:
The Sweeps Document refers to Futures Trading, not Equities.
- Spydertrader
EarningsDate & Culling Parameters
Does anyone know why the following very useful link to Earnings
Announcement Dates and Pass/Fail grades with respect to culling parameters has
failed?
http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
GlenKK
yeah i'm wondering about the same thing... i run this everyday to check for
earning stocks to avoid
I too, miss
http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
very much.
Anyone found a similar way of doing it?
(I know there are other methods mentioned in Journal I/II, but I would like an
opinion from people anyway)
Quote from Munck:
I too, miss http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
very much.
Anyone found a similar way of doing it?
(I know there are other methods mentioned in Journal I/II, but I would like an opinion from people anyway)
Quote from mark1:
There's an excel file called earnings.xls somewhere in the journals. ...
I think it works, give it a try and report
SNCR
Someone talked about SNCR last week (I think it was). Nice trade.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Here's a trade I've entered on PCCC, an old favorite that hasn't been doing much for a while. Entered @ $11.55 on the breach of a lateral channel following an FTT on 5-07. Yes, it's taken a while to develop. Will add to the small position if and when RTL of IT down channel is crossed. Comments welcome.
try attaching that again
A similar trade on another old non-FU stock, XING
Anybody know what has shot GROW up today? Im assuming there must be a takeover rumor out there.
Final Universe
Final Universe
BTJ CECE CHDX FRG GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND MEH MTOX NCTY NGA OMTR
ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR
__________________
Re: SNCR
Quote from Spydertrader:
Someone talked about SNCR last week (I think it was). Nice trade.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: SNCR
Quote from Haroki:
Yes, it is.
__________________
hey guys.... i have been doing well with this strategy overall and think that
it works really well in a trending market or a healthy market... but for the
past few weeks, the market has been real choppy.... open high, then drops down
all of a sudden, follow by a big rally, then a big drop again...... and alot of
the times, my stocks just follow the market and drops down sometimes to my 2%
stops.... is this happening to you guys?
but since we make trades primarily in the morning we dont really know how the
market is going to react the rest of the day, and i found that the market
direction is what's killing me and what's really affecting my stocks a lot of
the time.
Quote from chiefraven:
I found that the market direction is what's killing me and what's really affecting my stocks a lot of the time.
__________________
Quote from chiefraven:
hey guys.... i have been doing well with this strategy overall and think that it works really well in a trending market or a healthy market... but for the past few weeks, the market has been real choppy.... open high, then drops down all of a sudden, follow by a big rally, then a big drop again...... and alot of the times, my stocks just follow the market and drops down sometimes to my 2% stops.... is this happening to you guys?
but since we make trades primarily in the morning we dont really know how the market is going to react the rest of the day, and i found that the market direction is what's killing me and what's really affecting my stocks a lot of the time.
The short side is working pretty well though.
Look this system works,even with its basic rules, if you are going to
skip trades in the middle of a draw down, you are going to miss the next big
move.
When in doubt go back and take a look at that equity curve posted by mischief.
That's the beginner level...
I'm just telling you, hold on and dont start second guessing a great sys.
i'm not second guessing... and i have been trading it for more than half a
year now... and yes it does work.... and i did pretty well before... i'm just
saying that the market right now is very volatile and i find that it affects my
trades a lot lately....
please dont act so defensive all of a sudden... i have been a poster here for a
long time, so do show some courtesy please.
All i was asking was how some of you are adjusting or managing your trades when
the market is so unstable like it is now. that's all. and no. i dont agree with
what you just said... sometimes you have to make some minor adjustments to
whatever strategy you're using based on market condition, for example, you wont
be holding a 20% drop solely based on your first reaction to buy would you?
i'm asking about trade managements, i've never asked the validity of this
trading system... i think you may have got the wrong perception.
Quote from chiefraven:
i'm not second guessing... and i have been trading it for more than half a year now... and yes it does work.... and i did pretty well before... i'm just saying that the market right now is very volatile and i find that it affects my trades a lot lately....
please dont act so defensive all of a sudden... i have been a poster here for a long time, so do show some courtesy please.
All i was asking was how some of you are adjusting or managing your trades when the market is so unstable like it is now. that's all. and no. i dont agree with what you just said... sometimes you have to make some minor adjustments to whatever strategy you're using based on market condition, for example, you wont be holding a 20% drop solely based on your first reaction to buy would you?
i'm asking about trade managements, i've never asked the validity of this trading system... i think you may have got the wrong perception.
Final Universe Additions
Final Universe
Added PRXI to my Final Universe.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Final Universe for short?
PRXI first caught my eye on January 10, 2007 when it traded above the
[200,50,and 8 ma],the bollinger band with big volume, had a positive net price,
traded at least 25 cents (revised it to 2.5% recently),fresh cross on
MACD,Stochastics, and MACD Histogram.
I also noticed on my notes that the income at the time was showing upward for 3
consecutive years.
At the time it showed on my radar, it was less than $7.
I wished I went long in it for real.
Currently, what I see is a short set up.
Looking forward to your comments.
Re: Final Universe for short?
Quote from Ares1:
Looking forward to your comments.
__________________
Thanks for the quick response Spydertrader.
Looking forward on learning more.
Ares
Fish
Some Fish
JSDA MTOX
- Spydertrader
__________________
mark1,
Thanks for your reply. I have looked at the earnings.xls file, and it in useable
for earnings. I miss the "Float" from the website though :-( I realise I can
look each up manually, but I try to minimize time spent on analysis, as I have
yet to quit my day job.
In an earlier thread, Spyder mentioned he used eoddata.com for culling, but as I
understood it, it required Qcharts. Is Qcharts the way to go?
Update on trades i posted friday. I exitted xing when price didn't regain
Thursday's close, I had drawn in a lateral channel as I had on PCCC and decided
a better entry would be around 13.10, so far it's looking like the right
decision.
continue to hold PCCC and will add when price crosses the RTL around 12.50 and
stays there.
Quote from Munck:
mark1,
Thanks for your reply. I have looked at the earnings.xls file, and it in useable for earnings. I miss the "Float" from the website though :-( I realise I can look each up manually, but I try to minimize time spent on analysis, as I have yet to quit my day job.
In an earlier thread, Spyder mentioned he used eoddata.com for culling, but as I understood it, it required Qcharts. Is Qcharts the way to go?
,it came to my attention thanks
to that new column in my quote list( never used before reading here) hope you
guys profited as well.
Quote from rickylc:
Update on trades i posted friday. I exitted xing when price didn't regain Thursday's close, I had drawn in a lateral channel as I had on PCCC and decided a better entry would be around 13.10, so far it's looking like the right decision.
continue to hold PCCC and will add when and if price crosses the RTL around 12.50 and stays there.
And here's the updated daily on PCCC. Will be looking for volume increase as
price crosses RTL, if and when it does cross RTL.
Will add to the position around $12.50 if it proceeds properly.
mark1,
thanks for your response. Did you use Stocktables for the float culling? - I
can't seem to locate it on the site..
Besides the stuff accessible on ST, I use Yahoo Finance to cull for 65-days
volume, positive EPS and float. I am still using the beginner level-tools, but
Bruno-R is one of the things I'm looking into
Thanks again.
PRXI Update
PRXI Update
__________________
Final Universe Additions
Final Universe
Added DRYS to my Final Universe.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Yesterday, thinking about the stocks in the FU and their behavior (they go up
and down , more up than down, with a lot of Volatility...doh!), I wanted to test
an "old" system I used during the Nasdaq bubble.
It is basically a dip buyer, very similar to those you can find in Wealth lab
developed by Geol.
Now unfortunately , the script is in my home in Italy (I'm in Thailand ATM), so
I had to use the original DipBuyer-V6.
Anyway the results are quite interesting
I used 1 year of data for the current FU, last three month have been the best
for the period.
0,5% one way slippage
commission 0.005 per share
Pos. Sizing 20% of equity
Long
Starting Capital $35,000.00
Ending Capital $70,476.26
Net Profit $35,476.26
Net Profit % 101.36%
Annualized Gain % 101.75%
Exposure 28.77%
Number of Trades 114
Avg Profit/Loss $311.20
Avg Profit/Loss % 3.42%
Avg Bars Held 3.32
Winning Trades 99
Winning % 86.84%
Gross Profit $58,696.46
Avg Profit $592.89
Avg Profit % 6.46%
Avg Bars Held 2.15
Max Consecutive 24
Losing Trades 15
Losing % 13.16%
Gross Loss $-23,220.20
Avg Loss $-1,548.01
Avg Loss % -16.63%
Avg Bars Held 11.00
Max Consecutive 2
Max Drawdown $-13,265.61
Max Drawdown % -25.73%
Max Drawdown Date 3/13/2007
Wealth-Lab Score 262.63
Profit Factor 2.53
Recovery Factor 2.67
Payoff Ratio 0.39
Sharpe Ratio 2.54
Ulcer Index 6.03
Wealth-Lab Error Term 4.98
Wealth-Lab Reward Ratio 20.45
Luck Coefficient 8.18
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.83
Equity Drop Ratio 0.07
Now before we got all excited
if someone has an historic list of the stocks
that entered and exited the FU, I can backtest a more reliable set of data.
Anyway I think this stuff's got great potential and may add an interesting
weapon to our arsenal.
I'm going to back and forward test , all my bottom buyers sys for sure.
Hope my English is clear
PRXI Update
PRXI Update
__________________
Nice work there Spydertrader.
Attached is the way I see PRXI's chart.
I was just wondering what you think of those indicators.
Looking forward to your response.
Ares
PRXI
Hi Spydertrader,
I'm new to your journal. Your PRXI trade was great.
Should I go long on PRXI tomorrow 06/06 also considering the uptrend.
Please advise.
Re: PRXI
Quote from DayTrade001:
Please advise.
Quote from Ares1:
I was just wondering what you think of those indicators.
__________________
Thanks for your response Spy.
My suspicion has just been confirmed.
You mainly base your decision on price and volume (for us that are less skilled)
and not on the indicators.
A good example was with PRXI.
The slow stochastics were on overbought territory yet price continued to go up.
Looking forward to learning more from you.
Ares
Quote from tr222:
Spyder, im hoping you can give me a little help with the "rocket" trades. I understand the setup that is needed on the daily chart, but i am having trouble with the entry. I know in your camtasia video you mentioned that when u have a rocket setup you go down to the 5min chart and wait for DU to be hit and enter when the MACD turns positive. Is this the only entry criteria that is needed for these trades? Is there any criteria for the 30min chart? Could you explain your process for a rocket trade from analyzing a daily chart down to the entry. TIA
Ares1,
you can download the files from here:
http://traderuniverse.info/
Enjoy!
Thanks Munck.
Hi Munck,
How long does it normally take to download the video?
It's normally pretty fast. I can easily get around 80-100KB/sec.
You'll also need the tscc codec. You can seach for it in the journals if you
don't have it
Very detailed. It looks like I have to switch from conservative to logical
charting now.
I would like my wife and kids to watch the traderuniverse video too.
I closed the file and reopened it from my C drive but it's not opening.
Do I have to redownload it everytime?
Quote from Ares1:
I would like my wife and kids to watch the traderuniverse video too.
I closed the file and reopened it from my C drive but it's not opening.
Do I have to redownload it everytime?
JSDA FTT
JSDA formed a FTT on the pink down channel today.
Look for decreasing black volume as it makes it way back to the RTL and
increasing black volume (marked with the dashed black line) if it is to break
out of the pink channel.
In the interest of full disclosure, I took a position around 10am.
Quote from mark1:
What did they do to deserve such a severe punishment?
You should be able to see the video if:
You downloaded it completely (check the size on your HD and see if it matches the size of the original on the website.)
You have the Techsmith codec
Sometimes windows mediaplayer takes a holiday and you have to reset your PC in order to wake it up
I just added PTT to my FU
Oops, $9... wtf
Quote from thenewguy:
I like to watch the 5 min(sorry, previously stated 30 min, which I also use) chart for exits. Lately, I've been focusing most of my time on identifying FTT's. Although I was away from my computer at the time, it seems like there was a very clear FTT on REDF almost at the high of the day (the second time it tested that area). If you look at the attached chart, there is a huge spike of volume at that time, pushing the price up. The price, however, fails to reach the LTL from the up channel. The price also hovered around that area for 10 - 15 mins which would have given me ample time to get out, or even 2 or 3 bars later with a much better profit than I ended up with. I'm focusing my attention on looking for FTTs on daily charts to give me the overall strategy, then 30 and 5 min charts to fine tune my entries and exits.
This FTT, as with all of the one's I'm trying to point out, was located only using price and volume. The volume signal was crystal clear on it this time.
Logical charting?
Quote from Spydertrader:
I added PRXI to the Final Universe because the stock currently cycles a minimum of five times in six months for a minimum of 20% gains over a period of six to eight days. (See Final Universe criteria: Journal I). While clearly PRXI has formed a Point Three (Red) Down Channel, Friday's EOD buy in may mean a little more than simple short covering. With Volume showing increasing Red Gaussian (after forming a \/-R2R) anyone short this equity would want to see increasing Red Volume with decreasing Price tomorrow.
- Spydertrader
Re: Logical charting?
It seems like a lot of traders in here use point 3 of conventional charting instead of logical charting.
Are we not suppose to use logical charting (traderuniverse video)instead of conventional charting? [/B]
Thanks for the clarification bi9foot.
We were scratching our heads earlier when we were reading the book by John T.
Hershey and wondering why the points were different from the video.
At least soon, we would be able to talk the same language.
Ares
Is anyone able to view Camtasia videos when using a Vista operating system? I
dual boot my computers and can get the video to work with XP SP2, but not with
Vista. I have even had my tech support guys from my office look at it to no
avail. Anyone have any luck?
Oh, JSDA makes a tasty product, but this stock has proven to be my nemesis.
JAC
http://challenger-systems.spaces.li...9E443!818.entry
Windows Vista RTM Software Compatibility List at 17 december 2006.
Codecs
3ivx
Advanced Vista Codec Package 4.2
Combined Community Codec Pack With the Quicktime and RealPlayer alternative
codecs you can play just about everything and includes Media Player Classic
http://www.cccp-project.net/
While it may seem crazy in this market, I'm long OMTR. Entered yesterday
afternoon @ $17.35, still holding.
Exitted PCCC today @ $11.89 for chump change.
Quote from rickylc:
While it may seem crazy in this market, I'm long OMTR. Entered yesterday afternoon @ $17.35, still holding.
Did anyone take PSMT today? i had 970 shares of the 1670 shares traded in the
morning.... pushed the stock up and got out with 670 bucks.... got out at
21.31.... but then the stock went up all the way to 23
Final Universe Additions
Final Universe
Added CYNO to my Final Universe.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Pleas correct me if I'm wrong.
As far as I understand, this is how to calculate for an upside Fibonacci
retracement:
Step1: High - Low = difference
Step 2: Difference * Fibonacci number = number to be subtracted from high
Step 3: Retracement = High - Step 2
How do we calculate a fibonacci extention?
Quote from Ares1:
How do we calculate a fibonacci extention?
__________________
Sorry.
I guess I was jumping too fast.
I assumed that you were using fibonacci ( and knew how the extention was
calculated).
I guess I should finish reading this journal, the book that you sent,journal
1,and journal 2 first.
I was just getting impatient (something to do with emotion - my main challenge)
and wanted to read everything (and understand) all in one day.
I will be careful to post relevant topics next time.
Ares
Impatience
No need to jump in too fast.
Let's say reading all the journals and supporting documents take 6 months. Then
practicing the methods take another 6 months. After that it takes another year
to get the 'execution' skills down for the methods. Is it worth it?
Ask yourself if you would spend 2 years not making a dime, to learn something
that after the 2 years, you would make all the money you'd ever need.
Learning these methods over the internet is not the easiest way, so all the
effort is on the individual to 'teach' himself. Thank goodness we have ET and
can post to try and help each other.
Bottom line: no rush, be patient and teach yourself the 'correct' way, keep
asking questions.
Just some food for thought.
-Mike
Re: Impatience
Quote from Avi 8:
No need to jump in too fast.
Let's say reading all the journals and supporting documents take 6 months. Then practicing the methods take another 6 months. After that it takes another year to get the 'execution' skills down for the methods. Is it worth it?
Ask yourself if you would spend 2 years not making a dime, to learn something that after the 2 years, you would make all the money you'd ever need.
Learning these methods over the internet is not the easiest way, so all the effort is on the individual to 'teach' himself. Thank goodness we have ET and can post to try and help each other.
Bottom line: no rush, be patient and teach yourself the 'correct' way, keep asking questions.
Just some food for thought.
-Mike
Quote from Ares1:
My wife and I are currently reading the book by John (not Jack?) Hershey.
Thanks again Spydertrader for sending that.
Ares
The 'books' are the Building Minds document and the Channels document,
written by Jack.
You can find them here:
http://www.traderuniverse.info/documentspage.htm
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
The 'books' are the Building Minds document and the Channels document, written by Jack.
You can find them here: http://www.traderuniverse.info/documentspage.htm
-Mike
Entered Xing this morning @ $12.80 when PRV looked good and price was moving
towards my $13.10 trigger.
So far so good.
Also still holding OMTR though not sure how to proceed. Looks like they will
price 7.88 milllion share secondary offering tomorrow.
I may take partial profits @ EOD.
Any opinions?
I took partial profits on 50% of my OMTR position and will see how the
secondary offering prices before deciding on the rest.
entry was 17.35, exit @ 18.80 for approx 9% return.
Closed the remainder of OMTR on vol and price weakness this morning @ 18.49
for approx 6% return.
Still holding XING
Im going to be trading the Equities method very soon. I have read all the
documents. I have two questions.
1. Even if you have read well into Journal Three, should you start out with
paper/live trading using the methods discussed in the first Equities
Journal(along with the updates). I know there has been a lot of progression into
more advanced techniques. Essentially, do the beginner methods from Journal One,
Two still hold water in that they prove profitable. I obviously want to start
with the beginner methods....crawl before I walk, run.
2. For anyone who uses ESignal, in terms of the MACD requirements from the
beginner equities methodology, i.e. MACD(5,13,6). Beyond that, ESignal has many
other options such as a drop down box labeled Source: with High, Low, Close,
Open, etc... as options. Also, there are check boxes for Simple Moving
Average(Oscillator) and (Single Line). Is any of this important. Im sure it isnt
major but I was just wondering what is the criteria for that. I understand we
are only paying attention to the MACD histogram but I just dont want this to end
up being a minor mistake in a much broader system. The default is Close and
(Single Line), is this correct?
In my opinion, it is probably wiser/safer to begin by paper trading. However,
I only papertraded this method for about a week while I read journal 1 and the
background material. Now Im trading this method profitably for real money while
reading journal 2. I can tell that what Im doing isnt exactly what they are
doing now, but it still seems to work. My hope is that I will gradually end up
where they are now as I read on.
IMO, trading for real money is very different than paper trading was. Ive found
that getting in and out is a lot trickier with real money than I anticipated it
would be. I am constantly being nagged by conflicting voices in my head on what
actions to take which wasnt the case while papertrading. I guess its like
comparing playing online poker with real money to playing with fake money, its
just not the same thing.
My advice: If your going to paper trade, make sure to take it very seriously. My
problem was that I didnt take it anywhere near as serious as I take trading for
real money. Because of this, all I really learned from paper trading was that
the method appears to work. If your going to trade with real money, make sure to
begin small, only risking amounts that wont bother you at all to lose. If you
arent successful, stop trading real money and start paper trading until you
figure out what you are doing wrong.
Quote from LittleMac:
Im going to be trading the Equities method very soon. I have read all the documents. I have two questions.
1. Even if you have read well into Journal Three, should you start out with paper/live trading using the methods discussed in the first Equities Journal(along with the updates). I know there has been a lot of progression into more advanced techniques. Essentially, do the beginner methods from Journal One, Two still hold water in that they prove profitable. I obviously want to start with the beginner methods....crawl before I walk, run.
2. For anyone who uses ESignal, in terms of the MACD requirements from the beginner equities methodology, i.e. MACD(5,13,6). Beyond that, ESignal has many other options such as a drop down box labeled Source: with High, Low, Close, Open, etc... as options. Also, there are check boxes for Simple Moving Average(Oscillator) and (Single Line). Is any of this important. Im sure it isnt major but I was just wondering what is the criteria for that. I understand we are only paying attention to the MACD histogram but I just dont want this to end up being a minor mistake in a much broader system. The default is Close and (Single Line), is this correct?
Quote from johnpinochet:
My personal opinion is that paper trading is generally a terrible mistake. You establish patterns that will not work with real money. I think it is better to start with a smaller account, maybe 5000 to 10000 USD and be willing to lose it all as the price of tuition.
The problem I found with this method (so far the only problem), is that in order to fully trade it as espoused here, you really need to be able to exit your positions that very same day if necessary. What this means is, at least for Americans, you need a minimum of 25000 USD to be able to buy and exit in the same day. Most of the time, you will hold a position for at least a 24 hour period but having a 25000 plus account enables you to exit when you want to exit.
Obviously someone is going to reply that you can trade the method with a small 2000 USD account, and this is probably true, but wouldn't you like to be able to exit your positions the same day if necessary? Can't you think of a reason why you would like to do this?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I believe the actual law defines a pattern daytrader as anyone that makes 4 day trades in any 5 consecutive business day period.
OK, so there are finer details involved, and I thank you for the insight. My
point still remains: Can't you think of a valid reason why you would like to
exit a trade on the same day and possibly do this above the threshold? Given the
fact that we are talking about 3 - 5 watch list stocks that we are ready to buy
on any given day, it would seem very easy to violate the threshold.
Also, if I'm not mistaken, you can lose access to your funds for 30 to 90 days.
I think mischief had direct experience with that.
Imho it all depends on how seriously you take papertrading.
Learning a new method, even for an experienced trader, takes time.
You want to internalize every single aspect of the method.
You want to know exactly what to do and how to react at each step of your trade.
Although papertrading cannot take away the
emotional part of trading with real money, it only makes sense to practice till
you can do it blind.
When you reach the point that you don't have to think which button you have to
push, what indicator you have to look at, when it becomes second nature, then
and only then you are ready to go live with a small size.
If you find yourself in a trade, something happens and you don't know what to
do, get the hell out of the trade and go back to papertrading till you have
covered every possible outcome of a trade's method.
Good trading is not some sort of magic.
Good trading is execution of your plan with confidence.
Confidence comes only with practice, focus and long hours at your screen.
There's not shortcut.
I take my papertrading very seriously and it always served me good.
if we are making a nice short term up move in the market....GLDN tested last marches low and now might be a good candidate for a buy.
Updat on XING, I continue to hold this position.
Started a position in SYX yesterday afternoon, entry @ $19.12. I could have improved the entry significantly, but still a bit hesitant in this volatile market.
great trades rick. You are really surfing the market
GLDN looks like a dog....another possible learning experience.
I finally had my AHA moment regarding the FTT and how to use for entry.
Although I did understand what the FTT was I was not applying it to the right
frame of mind. When i finally was able to change my thinking i finally realized
how we are truly supposed to use the FTT.
Anyways, for those that are still trying to profit from the FTT i will attempt
to explain how i finally got it. This may be obvious to some with all the
information that spyder has provided, but i hope i might be able to help some
others that are still trying to have that AHA moment.
My problem was not knowing what an FTT was it was simply not knowing how to
apply it to my entries. It is very easy to see an FTT in hindsight and easy to
label in a chart well after the fact. The problem comes from being able to
recognize an FTT when it is forming and then entering as soon as you see it.
Once you see an FTT you then look for the market to confirm what you antcipated.
Therefore, if the market does what was expected you can hold, and if it doesnt
then exit. The goal would be to profit a little bit from the moves that do not
confirm what you anticpated and profit alot form the moves that do confirm what
you anticipated.
The process that i came to realize is that you need to see that there may be a
possible upcoming FTT, so you enter, then you hold/exit based on what happens
next.
The process of normal entry is: signal-->confirmation-->entry. Where as with the
FTT it is: signal--->entry--->confimation. This is at least how i have come to
understand it and how i finally had my AHA.
I know that this may seem strange to those that dont quite get it yet, just
continue to re-read all the notes and study the charts and it will finally
happen, it took me awhile.
Getting started w/ Amibroker
Quote from mischief:
I've also created a PRV script for Amibroker if anyone is interested in getting a copy.
IB is not an option for me, and
IQ will have to wait for a while... ($$). At this moment I have EOD from TC
(they won't share real-time) and RT via QuoteTracker & OptionsXpress but no
back-fill. Is it feasible to start with this?
Help - Final Universe
Hello All
I've read the journal material and background documentation. I am comfortable
with FTT, channels, but am struggling with the identification of the Hot List.
My problem is the following:
In following the instructions from Journal I, I have
1. Run the stocktables scan to come up with my Initial Universe (87 stocks). I
used the RS, EPS, and price parameters Spyder recommends.
2. Placed these stocks in a watch list
3. Run this watch list against Hershey Equity Scan v. 1.0.0
I receive no results ('No Alerts') from the WealthLab scan.
Is this normal?
Thanks in advance.
Re: Help - Final Universe
Quote from sammyg1973:
3. Run this watch list against Hershey Equity Scan v. 1.0.0
__________________
Final Universe
My apologies for appearing so dense...
How did you arrive at that Final Universe?
What confuses me is that when I run Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0 against
the stocktables-generated query, I receive no results. I would have expected to
have seen your Final Universe List, plus a few that did not meet the below
criteria:
1. Have a float less than 60,000,000
2. Have a float greater than 5,000,000
3. Have a 65-day average volume above 200,000 shares
4. Have positive EPS
(I did run the Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume Scan v. 1.0.0 against your Final
Universe, and received back those stocks in Dry Up). Next step would be to run
Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0
Thanks in advance.
hi everyone, I stumbled on to this forum when googling and read quite a few
of the past threads about jack's methods. So strating reading up and liked
Journal 1, am still going through Journal 2. Have been making notes as I go and
I must say its very interesting and hopefully I will start using this method to
trade shortly although I have been trading for the past two years but they were
all long term investments in blue chips.
Just a quick question, can this method be applied to ASX ? As I am from sunny
Queensland, Australia , the US market timing are fairly late in the night for me
and trading the ASX is good for my sleep as well as family.
Another question: I currently use Amibroker and saw some AFLs posted by
mischief, are they complete by themselves or do I need to use external website
to scan for DU stocks and then check them in Amibroker. Is there a video
tutorial of someone actually going through the whole process ? I saw a couple of
links before but they were all dead.
thanx heaps to everyone who have contributed their time and knowledge.
Quote from ra303:
..Just a quick question, can this method be applied to ASX ? ..
I think the ASX is the Australian Stock Exchange. I assume that these methods would work there as well. I think your biggest problem with applying these methods to the ASX will be finding a screener for the Australian stocks to create your final universe.
yes ASX is the Australian Stock Exchange.
For Screener, wouldn't Amibroker do the job with its Scan/Explore function ?
I thought Mischief and few others traded the asx with this system.
The other thing I could look at is to trade the US market with EOD data. Hows
does this system perform with regular stocks and futures.
thanx again.
Re: Final Universe
Quote from sammyg1973:
How did you arrive at that Final Universe?
Quote from ra303:
The other thing I could look at is to trade the US market with EOD data. Hows does this system perform with regular stocks and futures.
__________________
Thank you Spydertrader
Re: Re: Help - Final Universe
Quote from Spydertrader:
Final Universe
BTJ CECE CHDX CYNO DRYS FRG GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND MEH MTOX NCTY NGA OMTR PRXI ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR [/B]
Final Universe News
Final Universe News
Link.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Autotrading Equities System
Hi Mischief,
snip.... IB Controller has been bullletproof. The only
errors have been my own (either code related or not
checking earning dates, etc....)
yeah it would be really nice if Mischief or anybody else could share their
amibroker scripts.
On another note, As I mentioned earlier, I have been reading through the
Journals and now I would like to start papertrading and then eventually move to
trading an actual account with a seed amount of $5000. This is the money that if
I loose, wont hurt me a lot (I consider it my tutorial fund). I have been a long
term trader for the past 1 and half years and have been using money management,
position sizing and pyramiding to preserve and grow my capital to a good size.
So the BIG QUESTION is which method should I start with:
Journal 1
Journal 2
or Journal 3
I also noticed that a lot of links and files have either expired or superseded
including Welath-lab scripts.
So ur ideas will be most welcome. cheers.
Quote from ra303:
So the BIG QUESTION is which method should I start with?
__________________
Did anyone trade GROW? Can an experienced Hershey follower please give insight into how they dealt with it. It hit FRV at like 1ish today and all the criteria seemed to be there.
LittleMac,
I traded GROW. I did, however, get in rather late (11 AM today), so I missed the
first +8%.
I did, however, get in FRG in time for the big "bang"
<--- my first real success
using these methods.
Disclaimer: I'm still using the beginners methods.
When Avg. DU was reached at 11 PM, I checked for a positive MACD and Stochastic
> 80 on a 30min chart. FRG and GROW both satisfied these requirements.
I working on learning the more advanced methods.
Munck,
What numbers were you using for the Average DU volume(which had to be reached by
11a.m.) on GROW and FRG? According to my charts there wasnt Avg DU reached on
GROW. Wondering in case I have some discrepancies with my charts, and/or the
chartscript I am using. You use Hershey Equities Chartscript 4.2 for the DU
numbers?
Quote from LittleMac:
What numbers were you using for the Average DU volume [/B]
Littlemac,
Yes, I'm using the Chartscript ver. 4.2. Both FRG and GROW made Avg. DU at 11pm
Munck,
You're right I was looking at the 6/18 data which was way short of average DU
for the day. I feel like a J-Ass. I actually sat there for twenty minutes
staring at the 6/18 morning data wondering how I was missing it. Guess its good
to get the real dumb mistakes out of the way right off the bat.
Proper Channels?
Would someone smart on channels check this chart -- Im not sure if Im spinning my wheels. Thanks
Channels
In above chart, Im not sure I identify Points 1-3 properly as the price traverses through dominant trend..
Re: Proper Channels?
Quote from Irishfatboy:
Would someone smart on channels check this chart -- Im not sure if Im spinning my wheels. Thanks
JADE filed a 6 K today and will probably release earnings tommorrow.
JAC
Anybody else take the DRYS trade today? Was looking great early but now appears to be a FBO?
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
JADE filed a 6 K today and will probably release earnings tommorrow.
JAC
hi
Hi Guys, fairly new here. Although I have been trading for quite a few years,
thought I would start with Journal 1 to get a feel of the method.
However, when I created my list of stocks as mentioned in the Journal 1 from
stocktables it does not mention any stocks that you guys talk about. Also how do
I rank them ? I tried to use
http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/W...system?id=32994
but it does not state the rank anywhere. I have also attached the spreadsheet
from stocktables.
Is it possible for anyone to jot down the steps required for either of the
Journals ? I am quite comfortable with charts etc so wouldn't mind just getting
for Journal 3 which would also allow me to be up to speed with everyone here and
be able to contribute something down the line.
Re: hi
Quote from RonM:
Hi Guys, fairly new here. Although I have been trading for quite a few years, thought I would start with Journal 1 to get a feel of the method.
However, when I created my list of stocks as mentioned in the Journal 1 from stocktables it does not mention any stocks that you guys talk about. Also how do I rank them ? I tried to use http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/W...system?id=32994
but it does not state the rank anywhere. I have also attached the spreadsheet from stocktables.
Is it possible for anyone to jot down the steps required for either of the Journals ? I am quite comfortable with charts etc so wouldn't mind just getting for Journal 3 which would also allow me to be up to speed with everyone here and be able to contribute something down the line.
Re: hi
Quote from RonM:
However, when I created my list of stocks as mentioned in the Journal 1 from stocktables it does not mention any stocks that you guys talk about. Also how do I rank them ? I tried to use http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/W...system?id=32994 but it does not state the rank anywhere. I have also attached the spreadsheet from stocktables.
Quote from RonM:
Is it possible for anyone to jot down the steps required for either of the Journals ? I am quite comfortable with charts etc so wouldn't mind just getting for Journal 3 which would also allow me to be up to speed with everyone here and be able to contribute something down the line.
__________________
thanx a ton guys..
Can u also post the latest Final Universe List please.
Are you guys still using Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0 or have moved to an
updated version ?
Quote from ra303:
Can u also post the latest Final Universe List please.
Quote from ra303:
Are you guys still using Hershey Equities Rank SCAN v. 1.0.0 or have moved to an updated version ?
__________________
Hey Spydertrader,
thanks for FTT
I have drawn the channels with 20 MA on the price as well. U recon its ok ?
Quote from RonM:
I have drawn the channels with 20 MA on the price as well. U recon its ok ?
__________________
Hi all,
Latest autotrading script is attached. Again, use at completely your own risk.
the '0.3' script auto-trades.
The '0.25' script is for backtesting.
Latest autotrading script is attached. Again, use at completely your own risk.
Quote from mischief:
Hi all,
Latest autotrading script is attached.
Thank you mischief
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Update
I added RATE to my Final Universe.
- Spydertrader
__________________
NFI also came up in my rank scan of FU stocks. It just made it by closing at $10 - a price it has not seen since February.
You're a champ mischief.... thank you very much!
Quote from mischief:
Hi all,
Latest autotrading script is attached. Again, use at completely your own risk.
the '0.3' script auto-trades.
The '0.25' script is for backtesting.
Could someone tell me how to open it?
Hi Steven,
Yes it is still profitable but I haven't been trading it as much over the past
couple of months due to having too much on. I've been travelling a lot for work
and I don't trust running it over a wireless broadband link from a laptop..
Mark
Quote from stevensrk:
Thanks very much mischief! You are very generous. I will keep you posted with my progress.
Just one other question at this point: You posted nice profits in the period 12/1/06 - 2/15/07. Are you still trading with this? Is it still positive at some level? Thanks.
Spyder,
Should FRPT not be added to the Final Universe as of today?
It came out positive in StockTables (RS/EPS/price) and according to Yahoo, the
float, EPS and 3months vol are all within range.
FRPT
Quote from Munck:
Should FRPT not be added to the Final Universe as of today?
__________________
Hi Spyder,
thanks for your response. I don't know how I could have missed that upper float
value
Quote from stevensrk:
You will need WinZip (www.winzip.com, or equivalent) to open the file. You will also need Amibroker (www.amibroker.com). The scripts are text files that can be pasted into the AmiBroker Formula Editor.
JSDA
anyone playing this today? hit DU; 2M changed hands so far at 7:30ish; should
hit FRV by EOD (one would hope!); in at $14.84. JSDA
gotta work!
cheers guys!
SYX
I had SYX eclipsing DU right at 11:00 as well, anyone in?
Moving well....
Re: SYX
Quote from sammyg1973:
I had SYX eclipsing DU right at 11:00 as well, anyone in?
Moving well....
Re: SYX
Quote from sammyg1973:
I had SYX eclipsing DU right at 11:00 as well, anyone in?
Moving well....
Picked up SYX yesterday when FTT formed and sold half today.
Bought SNCR early today when FTT looked as if it had formed and will hold all
shares. Took a small position in BTG as well and it looks good so far. No shorts
today and I broke one of my own rules by trading on a FED day. Oh well.
JAC
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Picked up SYX yesterday when FTT formed and sold half today.
Bought SNCR early today when FTT looked as if it had formed and will hold all shares. Took a small position in BTG as well and it looks good so far. No shorts today and I broke one of my own rules by trading on a FED day. Oh well.
JAC
Quote from appletoast:
nice trades.
i shorted TRCR
QuoteTracker Stoch Settings
Apologize for this basic question, but which Stochastic are QT users using?
Slow or Fast?
Both only allow two parameters, and the journal specifies 14 1 3.
Thanks in advance.
Re: QuoteTracker Stoch Settings
Quote from sammyg1973:
Apologize for this basic question, but which Stochastic are QT users using? Slow or Fast?
Both only allow two parameters, and the journal specifies 14 1 3.
Thanks in advance.
Re: QuoteTracker Stoch Settings
Quote from sammyg1973:
Apologize for this basic question, but which Stochastic are QT users using? Slow or Fast?
Both only allow two parameters, and the journal specifies 14 1 3.
Thanks in advance.
and...
Re: QuoteTracker Stoch Settings
Quote from sammyg1973:
Apologize for this basic question, but which Stochastic are QT users using? Slow or Fast?
Both only allow two parameters, and the journal specifies 14 1 3.
Thanks in advance.
Many thanks!
smoothing
Sorry, I should have been clearer - I am a Quotetracker user. Screen print
attached, it does not appear there is a smoothing setting? Is this a critical
component? I did see on some of Spy's posts a '(14,1,3)' in the Slow Stochastic
window.
I've only used CCI in the past, again apologize for my basic questions.
Re: Re: QuoteTracker Stoch Settings
Quote from appletoast:
i find it helpful to put little tic marks or lines on my stochastics when the "fast" crosses through the 50 band and when the "slow" is above the 80 band or below the 20 band.
hope this helps.
Re: smoothing
Quote from sammyg1973:
Sorry, I should have been clearer - I am a Quotetracker user. Screen print attached, it does not appear there is a smoothing setting? Is this a critical component? I did see on some of Spy's posts a '(14,1,3)' in the Slow Stochastic window.
I've only used CCI in the past, again apologize for my basic questions.
My scans for Deletions, FU and DU.
Deletion: GMKT MEH NCTY OMTR RATE
Final Universe: BTJ CECE CHDX CYNO DRYS FRG GROW GRRF IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND
MTOX NFI NGA PRXI ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR
Dry Up (v1.0.0): CECE CHDX FRG GROW IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND ROCM SYX
Re: JSDA
Quote from virgintrader:
anyone playing this today? hit DU; 2M changed hands so far at 7:30ish; should hit FRV by EOD (one would hope!); in at $14.84. JSDA
gotta work!
cheers guys!
Quote from potemkinvillage:
Deletion: GMKT MEH NCTY OMTR RATE
Final Universe: BTJ CECE CHDX CYNO DRYS FRG GROW GRRF IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND MTOX NFI NGA PRXI ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Picked up SYX yesterday when FTT formed and sold half today.
Bought SNCR early today when FTT looked as if it had formed and will hold all shares. Took a small position in BTG as well and it looks good so far. No shorts today and I broke one of my own rules by trading on a FED day. Oh well.
JAC
Quote from appletoast:
i shorted TRCR [/B]
Hey Appletoast,
When and why did you short TRCR? Was this based on channels, tech. indicators,
both, or none of the above?
JAC
Quote from J AveryCrawford:
Hey Appletoast,
When and why did you short TRCR? Was this based on channels, tech. indicators, both, or none of the above?
JAC
Quote from appletoast:
thoughts? [/B]
Quote from nkhoi:
just want to point out that was not R2R
Time to test my real time FFT skills. Any comments very welcome...
I picked up some SLP late today. Here's a chart, volume looks nice to me, the
channel is down, both stoch's look good to me. A close above the 20 SMA would
make me feel better, but we can't have it all, can we?
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from appletoast:
thank you.
what about the rising red volume on the day the stock opened below the blue channel?
i took that as a BO.
or do i just have the wrong channels?
thanks for your help.
=]
Is there a chat room where users using Jack Hershey's method meet during market/after market hours?
Quote from thenewguy:
Time to test my real time FFT skills. Any comments very welcome...
I picked up some SLP late today. Here's a chart, volume looks nice to me, the channel is down, both stoch's look good to me. A close above the 20 SMA would make me feel better, but we can't have it all, can we?
Thanks,
TNG
Made my first trade today using the system with very minimal shares. Wondering if I was correct to get into CECE this morning and if any of you more experienced traders did or did not, and what your reasoning was either way? Any info would help. Thanks
Quote from LittleMac:
Made my first trade today using the system with very minimal shares. Wondering if I was correct to get into CECE this morning and if any of you more experienced traders did or did not, and what your reasoning was either way? Any info would help. Thanks
Quote from nkhoi:
BO for blue channel and cont. for pink channel. Both channels look ok, eventually you pick one that conform to the gau the most.
LittleMac,
I too got into CECE this morning (3000@11,76).
According to the beginners method, it was a setup "by the book" as far as I
could tell. I am not what you would call experienced in these methods though
Lets see how it goes...
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Deletions
GMKT MEH NCTY RATE
Current Final Universe
BTJ CECE CHDX CYNO DRYS FRG GROW GRRF IAAC IIG JADE JSDA LEND MTOX NFI NGA OMTR
PRXI ROCM SNCR SYNL SYX TRCR
__________________
JSDA
Yeah, JDSA was just after the book. Went in @15,42. FRV have been reached too
Quote from thenewguy:
Sold half when it hit %10 up on the day today, %5 trailing stop on the rest or when the stoch (14,1,3) drops below the 80 line on the daily.
TNG
Quote from thenewguy:
Stock looks dried up to me, at least for now. Could continue on tommorrow, but I decided to book the profits and move on to something faster moving.
Made %14 on the second set of shares.
Thanks,
TNG
Bought 700 shares of GROW at $25.75 this morning. It had been in Dry Up and riding the RTL for some time.
CORRECTION: Bought 700 of GROW at $22.75.
Quote from TCRhodes:
CORRECTION: Bought 700 of GROW at $22.75.
Okay, don't everybody rush to view and comment at once
This chart was meant to be
enjoyed over the weekend w/ a brewski of you choice close at hand or in hand if
you prefer
Quote from guavaman:
Okay, don't everybody rush to view and comment at once
__________________
I also exited GROW today after a 1 hour and 31 minute hold @ $23.77 for a mortgage payment and a pizza.
Dry Up Stocks
A List of Dry Up Stocks for Monday.
CECE CHDX GRRF IIG LEND NGA ROCM SYX
I should have tossed out LEND from the Final Universe at the end of last month
(buyout), but include it here solely for the purposes of accuracy.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Dry Up Stocks
Quote from Spydertrader:
A List of Dry Up Stocks for Monday.
CECE CHDX GRRF IIG LEND NGA ROCM SYX
I should have tossed out LEND from the Final Universe at the end of last month (buyout), but include it here solely for the purposes of accuracy.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Dry Up Stocks
Quote from LittleMac:
Im not getting GRRF or CHDX in my dry up on the chartscript Im using which leads me to believe Im using the wrong one.
Quote from LittleMac:
Which time is it?
__________________
Spyder could you post your charts for SYNL and SNCR, i want to compare channels
Im in the 600's pages of journal 2 reading it for my second time. Can an experienced trader please provide stocks in the FU they believe to have Bruno R setups for tomorrow. I am trying to see if I am following the guidelines correctly and trying to move along in my learning process. Second, does a stock have to be in DU the day before as another requirement for Bruno R. In essence are we only looking at stocks on the Watchlist for Bruno R setups? Im assuming no since this wouldnt lead to more stocks to trade. Any info would help, thanks.
Charts
Quote from tr222:
Spyder could you post your charts for SYNL and SNCR, i want to compare channels
Quote from LittleMac:
Can an experienced trader please provide stocks in the FU they believe to have Bruno R setups for tomorrow.
__________________
.
__________________
SYNL questions
Hey spy I have a few questions about the Channels you drew on the SYNL chart.
I have attached my annotated for SYNL. My channels are different from yours.
I would have never thought to draw the slower paced orange channel that you had
drawn. Looks to me like you used the pt3 of the blue channel in my chart as the
new pt 1 when price walked out of the blue channel.
The question I have is regarding the B2B Gaussian you have drawn. The fourth bar
from the end (purple arrow) looks like a flaw and the red bar (2nd from the end)
is higher than the green bars around it. What was your thinking in drawing the
B2B.
Secondly, we seem to have a B2B inside of the down orange channel. What are you
anticipating here? Even if I had your orange channel, I would have drawn my
gaussians R2B where you had B2B. (Just trying to find our what you saw that I
did not see)
I am anticipating a pt3 non-dominant retrace to possibly form a wider and slower
paced down channel.
Re: SYNL questions
Quote from bi9foot:
Hey spy I have a few questions about the Channels you drew on the SYNL chart.
__________________
Quick question on Bruno R as I am furthering my learning. A lot of ideas are out there, but Spydertrader what specifically do you do when you enter, do you use a 5 min 15 min 30 min chart to watcdh for MACD crossover into the positive? Or do you just monitor MACD on the daily charts and not break down to a smaller fractal for entry?
which software path?
I am looking for input on a choice of software…
I have decided to change my software to acquire scripting and back-testing
functions. Primary consideration has been AmiBroker, with IQFeed
and MBTrading. I also considered TradeStation, and lately, I was
surprised to discover I have been leaning towards TradeStation (providing
all 3: software, data feed, and brokerage). It is my impression that as long as
I am learning new software and a new language, TS EasyLanguage is a bit easier
to learn. The monthly fees are actually less with TS (as long as I continue to
trade at my current rate so the platform, i.e. software, is free). TS also now
claims historical fundamentals which may help back-testing.
I’ve been crawling through Wealth-Lab scripts, AmiBroker scripts, and has
collected snippets of TS code, many thanks to folks here. Studying these
helps my learning curve no matter which language I end up using.
First application is the Hershey Equities method. Once that part is running
smoothly, I intend to study the futures strategies. I currently use QuoteTracker
and manually execute trades based on visual interpretation and a few alerts.
Any comments, critiques, or rotten tomatoes? I am ready, bring it on!
Quote from LittleMac:
Quick question on Bruno R as I am furthering my learning. A lot of ideas are out there, but Spydertrader what specifically do you do when you enter, do you use a 5 min 15 min 30 min chart to watch for MACD crossover into the positive? Or do you just monitor MACD on the daily charts and not break down to a smaller fractal for entry?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I don't use indicators anymore, and haven't for quite some time. However, gooch87 used to perform very well by dropping down to the five minute fractal when trading these stocks. Perhaps, a review of his posts will shed some light on his methods.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
I don't use indicators anymore, and haven't for quite some time.
Quote from nicepair111:
Why dont you use indicators anymore? Are you primarily just trading on where price sits within the channel and using volume for entrys and exits?
__________________
Final Universe Update
Final Universe Additions
VDSI
- Spydertrader
__________________
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