Elliott
Wave Principle
by Howard Arrington
R.N. Elliott studied price movement in the markets and
observed patterns that repeat themselves. He used this
discovery to make accurate forecasts in the stock market.
To the untrained eye, market movement may appear random and
unrelated. In reality, the markets are tracing out patterns
that you can learn to recognize and profit from. Mr.
Elliott named this discovery the 'Wave Principle', but died
before his work became well known. In the late 1970's
Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost brought Elliott's work out of
obscurity in their book 'Elliott Wave Principle'.
This article offers a few basics in understanding the Wave
Principle.
Society behavior trends and reverses in recognizable
patterns. This principle is found in market behavior
because investors act and react to transaction information.
The behavior forms repetitive patterns, and because the
patterns are repetitive, they have predictive value.
Elliott identified thirteen patterns that recur in the
markets. He then assembled these patterns or waves into
larger versions of the same patterns. These became building
blocks to patterns of the next larger size.
The most basic pattern is a structure consisting of 5
waves. Three of the five waves are directional and referred
to as Trend waves. These trend waves are separated by two
interruptions that are counter trend and referred to as
Retracement waves. Using T for a Trend wave, and R for a
Retracement wave, the pattern can be described as
T-R-T-R-T. The classic pattern is shown in this theoretical
chart.
The three Trend waves are labeled 1, 3, and
5. The two Retracement waves are labeled 2 and 4. Each
Trend wave has a 5 sub-wave structure and each Retracement
wave has a 3 sub-wave structure. In the illustration the
larger degree wave is labeled with the large red numbers.
The Trend waves to labels 1,
3,
5 consist of 5
sub-waves labeled with the small blue numbers
1-2-3-4-5. The 3 sub-waves in
Retracement waves to labels 2
and 4 are labeled with
small blue letters a-b-c. Keep
in mind that each wave is just a member of a larger
structure, and conversely each wave can be subdivided into
waves of a lesser degree.
Basic Elliott Wave Principles:
1) Trend waves subdivide into 5 waves.
2) Retracement waves subdivide into 3 waves.
3) Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
4) Wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3.
5) Wave 3 always exceeds the price level of wave 1.
6) Wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest of
waves 1, 3, and 5.
7) When wave 5 does not exceed the price level of wave 3,
it is called a Bull or Bear Market Failure, and gives
warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market.
The 5th wave was cut short or truncated because of the
underlying weakness or strength.
8) A Trend wave may form a diagonal triangle pattern, or
wedge shape, still containing 5 sub-waves.
9) A Retracement wave may form a horizontal triangle
pattern, and these may have 5 or more sub-waves.
10) If wave 2 is a sharp retracement, then expect wave 4 to
be a sideways correction, and vice versa.
11) Lines drawn to form a parallel trend channel often mark
the upper and lower boundaries of the waves. Drawing a
trend line using points 1 and 3 may forecast the end of wave
5 when waves 1 and 3 are normal.
12) The Wave Principle does not provide certainty
about any market outcome. But, it can be a means to assess
possible future market action.
Fairly often, a retracement wave retraces a
Fibonacci percentage of the preceding wave. Sharp
corrections often retrace 61.8% or 50%. Sideways
corrections often retrace 38.2%, particularly in wave 4.
Most analysts focus on Retracement waves and measuring wave
heights to forecast a price objective using Fibonacci
ratios. Tip: Use Fibonacci principles to forecast a price,
and use Elliott principles to determine when a wave is
mature or finished. Look for correlation of the two.
There will be times when market analysis is
confusing and the interpretation is unclear. My advice is
to leave confusing patterns alone until subsequent waves
clarify the picture. The best approach is to apply
deductive reasoning. Learn Elliott Wave Principles, rules
and patterns, and use this knowledge to deduce what will be
the likely course for the market. A primary purpose of the
analysis is the determination of whether a pattern is
complete, whether a wave is finished. If the market changes
direction as expected, you caught the turn. If the market
misbehaves, your conclusion is wrong and money at risk
should be immediately reclaimed. Tip: Be patient and
understand first where the market is at in the unfolding
pattern, and then trade with the trend. |