Simulated
Trading
by Howard Arrington
Ensign Windows has a feature which simulates a real-time
data feed for a dummy symbol named DEMO. This data is
generated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and gives traders
the opportunity to simulate real-time trading when markets
are closed. Many traders meet in the B-Line chat room in
Ensign Windows during evening hours and on weekends to watch
DEMO charts and discuss trading systems, study parameters,
chart formations, alerts, and trading signals. You are
invited to stop in the chat room and join in the educational
fun of pitting your trading abilities or trading system
against the simulated real-time feed.
One important principle is to be synchronized with other
traders so everyone who watches DEMO sees the same chart
pattern and continues to update their charts with the same
tick sequence. Synchronization is accomplished in Ensign
Windows by first clicking menu SetUp | Simulation to see
this form.
The instructions are printed on the form.
Basically, click the Reset button while the Enabled box is
checked and the data set generated for the DEMO symbol will
be identical to others who are following DEMO charts. The
DEMO charts will update with a 'live' tick every second.
There is genius in the design of this
simulated data feed. It combines elements of randomness
through the use of a random number generator, yet
incorporates some orderliness so principles of Elliott wave
theory, Fibonacci, Pyrapoint, support and resistance, and
cycle relationships will be found in the chart patterns.
This 4-minute bar chart for DEMO looks like
a real chart. All of the standard patterns of trends,
congestions, head and shoulders, rounding tops and bottoms,
double tops and bottoms, triangles, and break outs can be
found in DEMO charts.
The simulated feed for DEMO can be used for
the following purposes:
-
Developing trading systems
-
Understanding studies and draw tools
-
Paper trading
-
Trading contests
-
Educational classes
-
Comparing system results
-
System design when markets are closed
-
Test trading strategies
While most users will follow the Automatic
Reset Instructions, the Demo feed does have the ability to
be customized. Custom settings would permit the same
sequence to be run again, or for the next market phase to be
selected in advance. Some may want to use this feature to
test their trading skills or trading system in certain types
of markets. This list shows the market phases that can be
pre-selected to be the next pattern experienced in
real-time.
This is what Rick Fath has to say about DEMO:
I know Judy and others in the E-mini Anonymous room
have used DEMO extensively. I wrote a script for them
to keep track of their orders this weekend. Many months
ago I had created a simulation using a historical tick
file from eSignal. Essentially it feeds ticks into
Ensign Window exactly like the market traded.
The fact that Ensign Windows has the capability to do
random and historical tick simulations is a bonus that
no other charting software can deliver. In simulation
mode you can practice and back test more precisely and
know that your test results will be more in line with
actual trading results. Now using the simulation mode
no capital is wasted searching for better trading
strategies or learning to trade ... "its real trading
without the risks."
This is what Judy MacKeigan has to say about
the simulated DEMO feed.
Ensign Windows has the capabilities to
run a simulated real time symbol called DEMO. This
enables you to practice and test your system whenever
the market is not open.
The DEMO symbol:
1. Can run in the background during market hours.
2. Can be synchronized with everyone in the E-mini
Traders Anon chat room
3. Has many types of markets available but only Random
can be used for synchronization
4. Can be run without a data feed
5. All indicators, alerts and draw tools are available
in the simulator that are available in real-time.
The following steps can get you up and running Demo:
1. Have Ensign Windows or download it at
www.ensignsoftware.com then install
2. In the Menu, go to SetUp | Computer and change the
Time Zone to the one you are in.
3. Click on Simulation tab and follow the instructions
for Automatic Reset.
4. Click on OK
Now click on second button in from the left - the
hint will be charts. This will open a panel - right
under the Add button is a small window labeled Enter
Symbol. Type DEMO in this window and click the Add
button.
DEMO should now appear on the left. Highlight DEMO
and double click on a time frame you wish to
open....since intra-day, would recommend some sort of
minute time frame. This will open a demo chart that
should be ticking away.
If you wish to join the B-Line room watching the same
workspace, save the workspace and template to Ensign.
http://www.dacharts.com/b-line.php The instruction
are there also. Drop by the B-Line chat room if you
have any problems.
I love being able to talk to other traders in the
evenings and on weekends looking at the same data with
DEMO and calling the trades with them. They learn from
me and I learn from them. When no one is around, I
switch to one of the other choices under Random and
practice my own system in various markets. Being able
to use Demo as a teaching tool is another big asset of
having it available. We plan to use it often in the
B-Line chat room in Ensign Windows.
I love it when I hear in someone's voice that they
understand something they have been struggling to learn
in real-time. During market hours traders don't really
have time to teach. With DEMO being available, there is
plenty of time in the evenings and on weekends to teach
someone until they do get it.
I feel like I am in a chess match against DEMO when
practicing just like I do when trading real-time. It
will show you all the flags, the pennants, the double
and triple tops/bottoms and it WILL get you just like
the market does. Your percentage of winning trades in
DEMO should match the market pretty closely.
Trader Profile:
Judy MacKeigan
ES: You go by Buffy in the B-Line chat room. How did you
come to choose a nickname of Buffy?
JM: It is one of my kitty cats names - the other is
Biffy. I forgot all about the vampire slayer when I chose
it. Many still remember me as Unicorn.
ES: I understand you are a day trader, but tell us more
about your trading style.
JM: I love day trading because it can really be whatever
I want it to be - many trades or a few trades depending on
how focused I am. I learned a long time ago don't trade
when you are not "in the mood". So I trade when I feel like
it, and when I am not trading, I totally enjoy being in the
B-Line chat room typing comments, posting charts and
answering questions.
My style is very short term. I use constant tick charts
of 30, 50, 75, 150 and 300. I run pretty tight stops as I
do not like to give much back or ride out the retracements.
I would rather reenter the trade when the trend continues.
So, I will have 3 trades in a trend where a trend trader
might only have one. My goal each day is to end up plus for
the day including broker fees. The rest seems to take care
of itself.
ES: How often do you meet your daily goal?
JM: Before I learned not to trade unless wanted to, I might
of missed my goal 5 times a month - now very seldom. I
still go over my trades at the end of the day and make sure
I am following my rules. I think this is very important to
do to grow as a trader. Even if a trade loses it is a
winner if you followed your rules. I also feel it is
important to have your own system. It might be bits and
pieces of all the systems you are exposed to but it is
yours, with your rules that fit your personality and your
trading style. If you are not trading something you are
totally comfortable with, it usually will not work out
well. Everyone keeps looking for the Holy Grail - I really
feel it is yourself
ES: What do you trade?
JM: I trade the NQ futures. Before trading this, I was a
stock day trader and that was usually in heavy volume Nasdaq
stocks. So I felt more familiar with the NQ than the ES. I
really enjoy the switch to the e-mini as I am not looking at
stock charts all night. Feel I can take time off anytime
and not have to watch the market for a few days to figure
out where it is. And I can do what I really love which is
hang out in the E-mini Traders Anonymous chat room and have
great discussions on trading and help other traders learn to
fish.
ES: What kind of setup does one need to be a day trader
like you?
JM: I have two computers. One is a 450 MHz Pentium II
with 3 monitors running Ensign Windows and trading
platform. The other computer is a 500 MHz Pentium III with
two monitors that is used for the chat room, E-mail, and web
chores. Seems to work out well for me.
ES: Which data feed do you use, and how do you like it?
JM: I use eSignal with the Ensign Windows software for
charting. I find this combination very reliable. Ensign
Windows charting is very powerful and with the latest
revisions much easier to use. The indicators on indicators
and the simulated real time symbol DEMO are two of my
favorite features.
I never knew the value of constant tick charts were until
I started using Ensign Windows. The minute charts can hide
so much - tests of swing highs/lows, flags, etc - I
seriously doubt I will ever go back to trading minute
charts. I do watch them though to answer questions another
trader in the room might have who doesn't have tick charts
available to them.
ES: Part of your trading system is covered in the next
article in this newsletter, but would you share more of your
rules with us?
JM: I do not chase a trade - if I miss it I miss it -
there will be another train leaving the station. Also if I
miss it it usually means I am not focused enough, so just as
well. I decrease position size if I have two losing trades
in a row. Although it hasn't happened in quite a while, I
used to watch myself for revenge trading: The "I'll get this
back" trading. When I was learning, and still had a
trading simulator, I used to allow myself only 3 losing
trades before I had to go back to the simulator.
As I mentioned already, I only trade when I feel like it
and when the odds are in my favor. When I suspect chop, I
sit on my hands or take a break. The moving averages being
flat, especially the 50 and 200 EMA, and the price trapped
between the 50 and 200 EMA on the 75 tick chart are two
clues I use to indicate a chop zone. It is time to just
watch until the market has direction again. In the B-Line
chat room, we always know what reports are coming out and I
am never in the market when they do.
ES: How important is good health to trading success?
JM: I think that is very important Howard. Just like it
is to do your best at a regular job you need to be mentally
alert to beat the market chess game. If I am not having a
"sharp" day then I tend to do a longer time frame and have
fewer trades.
ES: What protection do you have in place to keep from
having big loss days?
JM: I hate losing money so hardly ever have more than 3-4
pts at risk myself. A big loss day hasn't happened is quite
a while. I always use stops even if scalping and plan on
exiting at market. Then the stop will be further away and
canceled when I am flat. Back when I started I would get
all upset if I had a day cost me $300. It is just me and my
way.
ES: Do you use an Order Entry form for on-line execution or
a broker?
JM: I use PFGbest. I tried others, but the PFGbest
platform seems to be the least likely to cause errors for
me. When I was a beginner that was important. They were
also more than willing to answer beginner questions when I
called. I thank Teresa Lo and Mike Bruns from
www.trendvue.com for teaching me how to do this. No one can
teach diabolical thinking better than Teresa Lo. Received
many words of encouragement from others also.
ES: How long have you been trading?
JM: I dabbled in stocks from 1994 on, and was lucky with
a few like LU, PIXR and CWTR. Due to Ed, my guy, being very
ill I did not trade much in 1998. He passed away in June of
that year. I decided I did not want to go to work for
others and did love the challenge of the market. Pit Bull
book confirmed this - read it in one sitting. So that fall
bought lots of books and started day trading stocks the end
of 1998 until last fall.
At that time, Silicon Investor had a great thread called
"TA for the Beginners". I learned a lot about TA from the
great posters there so willing to share their knowledge -
Richard Estes, Bob, Sean, Claud, Andy and many others. Just
about a year ago I bumped into Teresa Lo on Silicon Investor
and she listened to my complaints about the market and no
life looking at all those charts and she suggested I try
futures. With the holidays coming, I started under her in
January this year. Took many of her Master Trader Classes
along with Mike Bruns classes. Started with PFGBest
simulator in May and real account in June. I have not had a
losing month, but was very quick to go back to the simulator
if the day was not going well
ES: You have given readers lots of things to consider
doing. What should they not do?
JM: Do not trade until you have your own system with your
own rules. Even if it is the same as someone else's you
still need to make sure you totally understand it. Set an
amount as the max you can lose in a day. Do not increase
position size if you are down on the day. Review your
trades often - make sure you are following your rules even
if the trade is a loser it is a winner if you did so. If
things aren't gong right don't push it - not to trade is
still a trading decision. You do not always have to be in
the market. Talk to other traders about what you might be
doing wrong. Some did this with me when I was doing
stocks. I learned so much from them.
ES: Am I hearing a strong pitch for being disciplined in
one's approach to trading?
JM: Yes, you are. That I feel is the only way you will find
the holy grail is yourself, not a system or an indicator. I
love the chat room in Ensign Windows. Many come and ask me
what was wrong with taking this trade? Or ask questions to
learn. I hate seeing other people lose money too - that is
why the motto of the B-Line chat room is we will try to
teach you to fish.
ES: There are many competing charting programs available to
choose from. Which do you have experience with and would
recommend?
JM: I have experience with Qcharts, TC2000 for end of
day, IQCharts, and QPlus for scanning. Last April even
playing techie did not work to keep Qcharts up and running.
That is when I found eSignal, but their charting software at
the time was not even close to what I was used to with
Qcharts. I went searching and found Ensign Windows. The
combination of Ensign Windows and the eSignal Internet feed
has proved to be great for day trading the e-minis.
Ensign's capability of running the simulated RT symbol DEMO
has just been an added bonus. Being able to practice my
signals with my system when market is down cut down on the
confidence curve.
This template (see the next article) is a system I used
to use with stocks but have modified a bit for the
e-minis. It is much easier with all the indicators in one
window than before when using other software. The market is
like a 3 dimensional chess game. You need to watch a time
frame higher and one time frame lower than the one you are
trading. Ensign's response to questions, their great
classes every Wednesday, and Howard's willingness to work
with traders to make it truly a trader's charting program
sure makes it the best IMHO (in my humble opinion).
ES: Do you have anything else you would like to pass on?
JM: I would have to say my list of importance is:
1. The challenge of the game.
2. Helping others learn to fish. I love to teach others
trading.
3. Then would come the money angle.
Guess that is my attitude toward Duplicate Bridge - try
to win this hand - the score takes care of itself.
Research Tip:
Buffy's B-Line System
by Judy MacKeigan
My basic style is not to give very much of anything back
to the market. I would rather exit the trade and reenter
than have a retracement turn into much more. For example,
those of you familiar with Retro will see that one of
Retro's trades might be 3 to 5 trades for me.
My files have posted to the Internet so you can download
them. In Ensign Windows, click the Internet Services
button on the main button bar. Click on the Upgrade tab on
the Internet Services form. Select the Sample Workspace
bullet, and click the Connect button, and then click the
Download button when it becomes enabled. This downloads my
workspace file. Do the same thing by selecting the Sample
Template bullet and click the Download button. Now you have
my workspace shown as Ensign on the Workspace panel, and my
template shown as Ensign on the Template panel. You may
wish to Resave both to use another name besides Ensign
because the Downloader always uses the name Ensign when it
saves the samples to your computer.
Now when you click on the template button in Ensign
Windows and apply Ensign you will have my system on your
chart.
Here's a quick overview of the indicators included in the
Ensign template::
- The top color band is the trend of that time frame.
- The lower color bands are visual representations of
the weighted moving average (WMA) on the price chart.
(parameters 4,9,15,20)
- The cyan and red lines in the study sub-window are
short term Stochastic (parameters 5,3,3).
- The yellow and green lines in the study sub-window
are the longer term Stochastic (parameters 9,3,3).
- The white line (shown in black in the illustration)
in the study window is what we call the "B line," which
indicates strength of trend something like directional
movement index (ADX) but always moves in the direction
of the price trend (Stochastic parameters 35,10,1).
- The circles are warnings to tighten stops. If the
circles are both one color in a trend, you can run a
lose stop - 3-4 ticks (1.5 to 2 pts) or your
preference.
- If one of the circles turns a different color, it is
a warning to check things out. Look at the higher time
frame (TF) - if trend is strong there, then you can
start using one of the weighted moving averages (WMA)
for your stop. If it isn't, look at the lower TF and
see what is going on there and if any reason to tighten.
- If circles both change color against the trend, then
I tighten stop to 1 or 2 ticks.
- The only time I might consider waving this rule is
when there is an inside bar (either end can be even) per
Mike Bruns. But stop will not be higher/lower than 2
Ticks off the high/low of previous bar before inside
bar.
When the "B line" is decked above 80 in the main TF and
the next shorter TF, the up-trend is strong and might carry
over to the higher TF (vice versa for "B line" below 20 in
down trend). I have now seen this happen right up through
the 15 minute time frame on a strong downtrend.
These indicators work in all time frames. You need to
watch at least one TF higher and at least one lower. For
example, I trade the 75 constant tick chart but have the 30,
50, 150, and 300 constant tick charts up also. The system
also works on minute charts. The signals aren't as fast,
which is true of all indicators, but it still gives you the
signals.
The divergences in the highs/lows of the stochastic can
often call a failed retest of high/low before price does.
When the B line is rising and the Stochastic falls to
meet it and then turns up, it usually signals the start of
another leg up. (See example
www.dacharts.com,
2001-10-15 folder, buffy-temp3 sig4.gif)
When the B line is falling, and the Stochastic rises to
meet it and then turns down again, it usually signals the
start of another leg down.
There were an equal number of people who did and didn't
want a color band below the top one for the B line. To add
this to your template right click on chart, click on draw
tools, click on the alarm clock. The cursor will turn into
a pencil when over the chart. Click on the B line. A
properties window will come up. Make it exactly like the
one posted (See example
www.dacharts.com, 2001-10-15 folder, Buffy-B line color
band5.gif), click on OK. It should now be on the chart.
Green is used for up and yellow for down to quickly know
which band is which. If you want to add to templat3 or make
another template with it included with other indicators on
templat3, right click on chart. Click on template, click on
SAVE, click on the template you wish to save it to.
Summary: System for day trading the Nasdaq and
S&P index futures. Signals can be as simple or as
complicated as you wish to make it.
Strengths: Uses multi-timeframe analysis. Frequent
trading opportunities. Leaves very little on the table.
Very suitable for part time trading. Can scalp (tick
charts) or trend (minute charts) trade intra-day. (May also
be used for stocks with 60 minute - daily - monthly charts.)
Weaknesses: If scalping, requires close attention to the
charts.
Intensity: Scalping may have 20+ trades per day. Trend
trading depends on time frame used.
Resources: Real-time charts posted throughout the day to
the www.dacharts.com
web site, real-time voice chat peer support in the B-Line
chat room using Ventri1o port 3800, after-hours simulated
trading with Buffy, voice chat Q&A.
Study Tip:
Stochastic Parameters
by Ira Tunik
I guess it depends on which book you read. One says
Stochastic is to be used in trending markets only, another
says to use divergence only for calling tops and bottoms and
a third will say it is totally useless. All 3 are right and
wrong at the same time. Any indicator is useless unless you
understand what it was designed to do and how it was
designed to be used.
Stochastic was designed based upon cycles. The static
use of 14,3,3 for the Stochastic parameters will get you in
trouble unless you are trading a 28 bar cycle. Stochastic
was designed to use the 1/2 cycle. Divergence is a warning
of an impending change. You can get 2, 3, 4 or more
divergent tops or bottoms. There is no specific number
given for the indicator.
You can back test the heck out of Stochastic and come up
with the wrong answer because it is the current cycle width
that determines the accuracy of the indicator. Do you want
to use regular or exponential moving averages? That is
what the 3,3 is: the moving average and the moving average
of the moving average. The Moore report used to give the
stochastic indicators for the various commodities and they
changed every month, and they were different for up moves
and down moves for the same commodity. That is what they
got by back testing.
If you check the cycles, you will find that they are
fairly constant for a specific commodity, stock or index.
Usually all the stocks in a sector will trade on the same
cycle. There are always the exceptions. Cycles are always
measured from low to low. Never from high to high. A low
is defined as a bar that is lower then the previous bar and
lower then the following bar. Therefore, you can have a low
in the middle of an up trending or down trending move.
For a better understanding of cycles read Hurst's book. It
is about the best out, even though it is about 30 years old,
and still pertinent.
Like any other indicator that I have found, it will not
stand alone as a entry and exit tool for a trading system.
It can be used very advantageously in a trading system. I
use it in mine and find it very helpful |