Using Gann
Squares
by Howard Arrington
The Gann Square tool in Ensign Windows is very flexible
and can be used to show trends, timing, and price levels.
Gann Squares indicate possible time and price movements from
important highs and lows. A start and end
point are necessary to draw Gann Squares on a chart. Since
the Gann Squares indicate possible values for future bars,
it is often useful to the slide the chart bars to the left
so there is blank space to the right of the chart bars. To
draw a Gann Square on a chart move the cursor on the chart
to the starting point. The starting point is generally an
important High or Low on the chart. Then drag the mouse to
the right until a desired ending point is reached. The
start and end points will be the corners of the
square. The end point is often to the right of the
chart bars. Let's begin by looking at the tool's parameter
form.
Price: A Gann Square can draw
horizontal lines at the price levels shown in the
Horizontal check list. These price levels are similar
to those that could be constructed using the Fibonacci Price
Levels draw tool. Tip: Watch for trends to change
directions at the Gann Square price levels.
Time: A Gann Square can draw
vertical lines at the intervals shown in the Vertical
check list. These vertical lines are similar to those that
could be constructed using the Cycles draw tool. Tip:
Watch for trends to change at the Gann Square time
intervals. A Gann Square with both horizontal price levels
and vertical time intervals is shown below.
In our example, the 1/8th, 1/4th,
3/8th, and Midpoint parameter boxes were checked
for both the Horizontal levels and the Vertical
intervals. Thus, our square is divided both horizontally
and vertically into eighths. The 3/8th and 5/8th lines are
colored red.
Another variation for the Gann Square is to
check the Fan Lines parameter which is shown checked
in the parameter form example. When the Fan Lines
box is checked, the tool changes from drawing horizontal and
vertical lines to drawing Gann fans from the four corners as
shown below.
The fan lines are drawn from the corners to
the same eighth points on the square's perimeter used by the
horizontal and vertical lines in the previous example. The
Horizontal check list will select the points used by
the two fans whose vertex is on the left side of the
square. The Vertical check list will select the
points used by the two fans whose vertex is on the right
side of the square. A common configuration for these fan
lines would be to keep the two fans on the left side, but
eliminate the two fans on the right side by unchecking all
parameter boxes in the Vertical list except the
Perimeter box.
Trading tips for predicting the timing of a
turn from the intersection of primary Gann angles were given
in the
July issue of the Trading Tips newsletter. Gann fan
lines also provide price support and resistance, of which
many are easy to spot in the example chart .
Study Tip:
Cycles Tool
by Hank Dean, Key West, FL
One of the most critical aspects of successful trading is
not what the direction is or why it's
happening. It is the mostly overlooked when. The
when can often be forecasted just like phases of the
moon or the tides or waves or rhythms of any kind. Using
one very simple tool, time cycles, and some common sense,
you can win consistently. Without that tool it's a crap
shoot. For that reason and dozens of others, and I've tried
them all... I repeat, Ensign rocks!
In reference to the what, why, and when,
and the importance of each, please don't misunderstand me
about down playing the what and why. There
are so many commonly known and used sources of what
(see oscillators and advanced indicator studies, volume
etc.) As for why... that's as easy as keeping a
couple of televisions running while you trade, ie: CNBC, Fox
News, etc. They will keep you apprised of fundamentals
(government reports, election antics... argg, dominating
large caps, etc.)
As to where to find more printed information on time
cycles, there isn't much out there that I've found. Do you
suppose it's something the big guys don't want you to know?
Anyways, I have found bits and pieces in these sources:
-Futures Magazine
-Bridge Trader Newspaper
-DayTraders Bulletin: Tips, Tricks & Techniques for
Day Traders (www.daytradersbulletin.com)
awesome stuff.
Where is the Cycles tool in Ensign Windows? Click
the Draw Tools button (3rd from the right). The
Cycles button is the 2nd button from the right, in the
2nd row down, right next to Daily Price Lines. As
you pass your cursor over it, the hint 'Cycles' pops up.
When you click on it, the cursor changes to a pencil. You
can and probably will run a few cycles at a time. I
recommend that you color them differently, and always start
by placing the ones you're least likely to adjust later, as
you'll generally only be able to manually move the last one
you lay down.
Try this: Open the March e-mini Nasdaq contract 1-minute
chart (eSignal users: NQ H1). It's all you'll need for this
example. Now try this... place your pencil cursor exactly
on the 8:02 a.m. EST top on Dec 12th, holding the left mouse
button down... drag the pencil to the right and when you're
on top of the 8:25 a.m. EST bottom release the mouse
button. If you screwed it up just hit delete and do it
again. Now look where the repeating cycles land: 8:47,
9:08, 9:29 etc. Do you see how they have approximately
identified those small bottoms? Now for the big news. Now
look after the bell, where this pre-opening bell homework
really counts. IT PRECISELY IDENTIFIED THE 9:50 AM BOTTOM...
AND AGAIN, THE SMALL TOP AT 10:11 AM... AND AGAIN THE TOP AT
AROUND 10:33!!!!! Now combine that with On Balance Volume,
MACD and Stochastics, etc. See illustration below.
Every day I check the pre-bell market first, then extend
them forward after the bell. Then I lay down a permanent 22
minute cycle from 9:30 am (the bell) onward. After the
bell I start tracking reversals as I trade and make subtle
modifications.
Understand 2 things:
1. Cycles don't have to reverse the trend every time, they
can be skipped sometimes just causing a little hiccup
and sometimes nothing visible at all and two or three can be
skipped only to be resumed down the road (pre-bell cycles in
particular).
2. You will notice that many times the market will trade
with a lot of volatility right on the cycle turning point...
streaking up (or down) to form a peak (or trough), only to
reverse quickly forming a sharp spike. This ends up being
the top (or bottom)... these are my favorites, what a rush!
On the other hand... a cycle can be a catalyst... acting to
push or accelerate the current trend appreciably in the same
direction.
Now remember, cycles don't tell you the what or the why,
you have plenty of other tools for that. It only says "LOOK
BUCKO, SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GOING TO HAPPEN HERE>>>."
That's what it's good for and as far as I know that's all
that it does, but it's enough. Give yourself a few weeks
using cycles before you start relying on them heavily.
One neat thing about using time cycles is that it gets
you thinking about the past and the future in a different
way. It got me graphically tracking the small and large
reversals every day early on, when they happened, how many
points the move was and so forth. And it's amazing
how trading days repeat themselves again and again in the
same and subsequent weeks. Case in point: Take a look at
the morning lows (reversals) on Dec. 7th (9:46 am), 8th
(9:49 am) and then again yesterday the 11th (9:40 am) and
then again finally today Dec. 12th (9:50 am)... pretty cool
eh?
If you haven't guessed by now, I'm geared toward index
futures specifically the e-mini Nasdaq contract, and yes,
you should be trading March (H) right now... unless you
enjoy being crushed, and eaten for lunch. I like the NQ H1
because it's really fast and enormously profitable when
trading between 9:00 - 11:30 am (the only time I trade).
But you must (unless you are very well healed) use very
tight stops... sometimes placing your protective stop even
before your market entry limit order. 1 or 2 winners and
I'm out for the day... no hanging around all day in a
sideways market... but that's me.
Here are some of my personal observations (for NQ), I'll
kick my own butt later for making them known:
- Cycles are all about trial and error... always.
- Cycles, like Stochastics or anything else are only
guidelines.
- 22-minute cycles from the opening bell forward... every
day. Be conscious of the 11-minute cycle as a rule.
- Some times cycles run top-top, top-bottom,
bottom-bottom... just try different combos.
- For the Nasdaq, use the contract 1-minute chart, not the
index.
- Look at the long-term and short term (last hour) before
the bell, then watch the 1st reversal after the bell, 2nd,
3rd.
- Every day is different, but usually once cycles are set up
they are reliable. Don't trade on days that they don't.
- Usually as of 11:30 a.m. EST, your current cycles will
usually go into the toilet, look for a new set starting
around 1 p.m. EST (This is true of most of the studies,
because of low volume generally).
- Go to www.cme.com and
download MarketSound, use it in conjunction with your
cycles, it's killer.
- Get ready to kick yourself at the end of the day as you
look back on the day-- for not trusting the cycles you had
set up earlier. It pays to be patient... the market will
still be there tomorrow, even if you're not, get my meaning?
- Get ready to be floored at what you see, on a daily basis,
but remember, cycles are guidelines like anything else,
- DO NOT BET THE FARM ON CYCLES UNTIL YOU ARE PRACTICED.
- DO NOT IGNORE YOUR OTHER INDICATORS BECAUSE YOU FOUND
CYCLES. Compelling as they are, Cycles are is just one more
tool.
- Watch how cycles coincide with trend lines, speed lines,
support & resistance levels, open/high/low and
lock-limit-down levels, and a host of other studies.
Combined together, they tell a story (as my brother puts
it).
Good Trading
Trading Tip:
Stop Loss Indicator
by Jerry Cohen -- jerrmar@earthlink.net
-- 562-596-7528
After reading your January article on forward-shifted
moving averages, I tried to see if single moving averages
could effectively be used to stop losses. The advantage to
a forward-shifted moving average, averaged over a small
number of bars and used directly as a stop-loss indicator,
is that it clings close to your bar plot, yet it moves up
and down with the bars, helping to prevent you from getting
kicked out unnecessarily.
This is one possibility I have been toying with: Gann
makes a point that plotting the close doesn't do you much
good because it is the high or low that gets you stopped
out. Therefore, as a stop-loss or entry method, use high
and low n-bar moving averages shifted forward m
bars. n can be 1 and it works pretty well. I find
n=3 and m=3 to be good numbers for the S&P
e-mini chart with 5-minute bars, during up or down moves.
Ensign software makes charting easy. You color the moving
average of highs shifted forward green. You color the
moving average of lows shifted forward red.
Now, for employing these averages as stops, use
candlesticks with the simple trend indicator so they will be
colored red and green. When a green hollow candle passes or
is cut by the green moving average line go long. Don't if
the candle is green filled or if just the wick of the candle
is touching the green line. When a red filled candle passes
or is cut by the red moving average line go short. Don't if
the candle is hollow red or if just the wick of the candle
is touching the red line. Do nothing if a red candle
crosses the green line or a green candle crosses the red
line.
This system works fine for trends but whipsaws you out of
your money during horizontal moves. Nevertheless, this
system can at least help you see when you are in a
horizontal move. An up or down trend is characterized by
the space between the red and green lines being largely
empty. A horizontal move is usually characterized by the
space between the red and green lines having bars. Or the
space above the green line and below the red line can also
have bars, particularly when the chart has narrow bar ranges
and multiple gaps due to low volume.
One of the nice things about this method is that the two
averages can be plotted with Ensign Windows without any
special ESPL program. You use simple moving averages. You
set your first average to use a High data point, and
make the color of the first moving average green. Make the
parameter for the 2nd line a 1 so the second line for this
object is not plotted.
Then you add a second moving average object, setting it
to use the Low data point. Set the first moving
average color red and the 2nd line parameter a 1. This
gives you a green moving average of highs and a red moving
average of lows, both shifted forward the amount you choose.
If down moves for your market are characterized by a high
degree of oscillation and up moves are typically smoother,
you can set the parameters for the green and red lines
differently. You can accommodate the differences in the way
the chart moves up and down so you don't get thrown out of a
move prematurely. Another refinement would be to use
offsets to shift the green moving average line up and the
red line down, but I haven't found any need for this yet.
Hope this is helpful to someone. |