Study Insight:
Fibonacci Numbers
by Howard Arrington
Leonardo de Pisa de Fibonacci (born around 1170 in Pisa,
Italy) was a mathematician who studied the Great Pyramid at
Giza and discovered a number series which we now call
Fibonacci numbers. The number in the series is the sum of
the two previous numbers, and includes the set 1, 2, 3, 5,
8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and 144. Dividing one number by the
next after the 8th sequence yields 0.618,
which happens to be the relationship of the height of the
Great Pyramid to its base. Another relationship is that the
next number in the sequence is approximately 1.618
times the preceding number. These relationships are also a
Fibonacci number series: 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.618, and
2.618, etc.
Fibonacci numbers are valuable because these numbers and
relationships are found everywhere in nature and in the
markets. Frequently the magnitude of a wave will have a
Fibonacci relationship to the magnitude of another wave
structure. A wave's magnitude is determined by measuring
the price range from a significant top to a significant
bottom. The magnitude of a Trend wave might be 1.618 times
the magnitude of the previous Retracement wave.
A corrective Retracement wave might be 0.618 times the
magnitude of the previous Trend.
Larry Pesavento shows in his book 'Profitable
Patterns for Stock Trading' that two additional ratios
are frequently found in the markets. These ratios are the
square roots of the two primary Fibonacci ratios. The
square root of 0.618 = 0.786, and the
square root of 1.618 = 1.272. Larry uses
these two additional relationships, 0.786 and 1.272, because
not all waves are a ratio of 0.618 and 1.618, or the other
common ratios of 0.382, 0.500, and 2.618.
This example daily chart, Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU),
is loaded with Fibonacci relationships. The number of bars
in each trend is shown in a red box. Note that the number
of bars in the initial trend and its narrowing triangle
consolidation sum to a Fibonacci number 55 = 8 + 8 + 5 + 8 +
5 + 8 + 8 + 5. Note the three wave bottoms that occur on
the 13th bar cycle from the prior bottom. Note the break
away gap and the 21 bar run to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension
level top.
Fibonacci ratios are easily applied to a chart using the
Fibonacci Levels tool in Ensign Windows. When you click on
the Fibonacci Levels button, the cursor will change to a
pencil while in the draw mode. A start and end point are
necessary to draw Fibonacci Levels on a chart. The distance
between the start and end points is divided into Fibonacci
Levels which suggest possible support and resistance
points. To draw Fibonacci Levels on a chart move the cursor
on the chart to the starting point. The starting point is
generally an important high or low on the chart. Click the
left mouse button down and drag the mouse to the ending
point, and release the mouse button. The ending point is
usually the end of an important trend or correction
following the starting point. Watch for the completion of a
trend or correction at a Fibonacci Level.
After drawing Fibonacci lines on a chart, click the right
mouse button to display the tool's properties window. The
properties window is used to change the levels, color,
style, and defaults. A check box list of common ratios is
provided so that specific levels can be displayed or
hidden. The list includes the levels 0.786 and 1.272 that
are the focus of this month's study insight. |