Now that I am
spending seven hours a day doing trading for the
new hedge fund I haven't had much time for
research or writing new Bulletins. However a
comment in one of the trading newsgroups that I
monitor got me thinking about the potential
benefits of combining our knowledge of RSI and
ADX into a simple system. Both the ADX and RSI
are valuable trading tools and a combination of
the two would seem to offer some interesting
possibilities. I like to use the RSI primarily
as an indicator for buying on dips in an
uptrend. The ADX is my primary indicator of
trend strength.
Here are a few ideas on how the two
indicators might compliment each other in a
system that "knows" when to enter on strength
and when to buys on dips. (I'm only going to use
the long side for examples but the logic should
apply to short trades as well.)
When the ADX is rising it usually indicates
that a strong trend is underway. In many cases
waiting for any sizeable dip would be costly
because the market could run away and the dip
entry would be too late to maximize our profits.
In this case we must enter on strength. To make
this idea into a simple trading rule we might
state that if the ADX is rising (and we have
some indication it is rising because an uptrend
is underway) we will buy whenever the RSI is
below some very high threshold like 85. This
rule would give us a very prompt entry in most
cases and the result would be almost identical
to simply trading whenever the ADX is rising
which seems to be a good idea. The RSI has
little, if any, benefit in this situation except
it might occasionally keep us from buying into
an extremely overbought market where the RSI was
above 85. In this case a slight delay on the
entry might be prudent.
The RSI, however, can play a much more
important role when the ADX is flat or
declining. In this case the rule would be that
when the ADX is not rising we should postpone
our entry until the RSI is below some more
typical threshold like 45 or 50. Since the ADX
is not giving us a signal that the trend is
unusually strong we would need some additional
indicator to show that the market has some
minimal amount of upward direction. Otherwise we
would not be buying a dip within the framework
of an uptrend. Something simple like an upward
sloping 20-bar moving average might work in this
application.
Now that we have combined the ADX and RSI for
our entries we might also want to combine them
for our exits. When a market is rising but the
trend is not particularly strong any spike in
the RSI represents a good opportunity to take a
profit. For example when trading in stocks the
9-bar RSI rising above 75 or 80 often signals
that a correction is imminent. If the market
trend is not unusually strong we would probably
be happy with taking our profit on strength
rather than waiting to get stopped out on
weakness. However if the ADX is rising we might
want to risk a correction in hopes of riding the
trend even further. In this case when the ADX
was rising we would ignore the RSI signal to
take our profit. However, once our patience has
allowed us to accumulate a very substantial open
profit we might be best served by acting on the
next RSI signal and nailing down the big winner.
Also, when the ADX is rising it would not make
much sense to be buying at a high RSI level and
also selling at a high RSI level. We would be in
and out of our trades almost immediately.
Therefore we need to ignore the RSI extremes
until our profit has had a chance to accumulate.
In summary, the important concept to remember
is that our knowledge of the ADX can make the
RSI a much more useful trading tool. When the
ADX is rising the RSI tends to get overbought
and it can often remain overbought for a
surprising length of time. On the other hand
when the ADX is flat or declining any spike to
the upside in the RSI is an opportunity to nail
down a profit. Conversely, any spike to the
downside can be a potentially profitable entry
point.
Here is the logic of a simple little system
based on this discussion. (Just the rules in
text form, you will have to do your own coding.)
The parameters selected have not been tested or
optimized. For example the 20-day moving average
is just a number I picked out of the air. This
is enough information to get you started and you
can vary the rules to make the system trade over
whatever time frame you prefer.
Long Entries:
1. The 20-bar moving average must be rising.
2. If the ADX is rising (ADX today is 0.20 or
more higher than yesterday) then buy if the 14
bar RSI is less than 85.
3. If the ADX is not rising (ADX today is not
0.20 higher than yesterday) then buy if the 14
bar RSI is less than 50. Here is where you can
influence the frequency of trading. For more
trades use a higher threshold like 60. For fewer
trades use a lower threshold like 40.
Long Exits
1. If the ADX is not rising (ADX today is not
0.20 higher than yesterday) then sell (long
exit) if the 9-bar RSI is greater than 75.
2. If the ADX is rising (ADX today is 0.20 or
more higher than yesterday) and the open profit
is greater than (pick some amount - maybe 4 ATRs
or some unit of price) then sell if the 9-bar
RSI is greater than 75.
3. You need some additional exit rule for the
losing trades. Use your favorite loss-limiting
exit or you might want to exit when the price
goes below the 20-dat moving average or when the
20-day moving average turns down. (See entry
rule 1.)
Good luck and good trading.
by Chuck LeBeau |