The Open-10 TRIN is a smoothed variation of the Arms
Index. It is a market breadth indicator that uses advancing/declining
volume and advancing/declining issues to measure the strength of the
market.
Interpretation
The interpretation of Open-10 TRIN (also called the
Open Trading Index) is similar to the interpretation of the "normal"
TRIN.
Readings above 0.90 are generally con-sidered
bearish and readings below 0.90 are considered bullish.
The following table was reprinted from Peter Eliades'
Stock Market Cycles. It shows what the DJIA did after the 10-day TRIN
rose above the level of one. Impressive...
Table 9
1st Reading > 1.0
Days to Final Low
Next Market Move
May 23, 1984
3
60-point rally
June 15, 1984
1
63-point rally
July 20, 1984
3
165-point rally
October 10, 1984
0
88-point rally
November 16, 1984
1
45-point rally
December 5, 1984
3
69-point rally
January 3, 1985
1
130-point rally
March 15, 1985
1
48-point rally
April 30, 1985
2
96-point rally
June 19, 1985
3
78-point rally
I created a similar table for the period 1985
through 1988. The table appears below.
Table 10
1st Reading > 1.0
Days to Final Low
Next Market Move
June 19, 1985
0
60-point rally
January 8, 1986
2
302-point rally
April 30, 1986
N/A
16 point rally
July 15, 1986
0
41-point rally
September 11, 1986
1
141-point rally
January 2, 1987
0
445-point rally
October 15, 1987
2
289-point rally
November 13, 1987
4
68-point rally
November 27, 1987
5
285-point rally
January 14, 1988
5
285-point rally
February 8, 1988
5
79-point rally
March 11, 1988
0
53-point rally
April 4, 1988
0
127-point rally
May 12, 1988
0
39-point rally
May 17, 1988
4
211-point rally
July 1, 1988
N/A
78-point rally
August 12, 1988
7
111-point rally
November 16, 1988
0
309-point rally
October 30, 1989
5
171-point rally
December 18, 1989
2
109-point rally
Calculation
The Open-10 TRIN is calculated by keeping a 10-day
total of each of the TRIN's components before performing the TRIN
calculation.
