The New Highs-New Lows indicator ("NH-NL") displays
the daily difference between the number of stocks reaching new 52-week
highs and the number of stocks reaching new 52-week lows.
Interpretation
You can interpret the NH-NL indicator as a
divergence indicator or as an oscillator. I usually plot a 10-day moving
average of the NH-NL indicator to smooth the daily values.
Divergence
The NH-NL indicator generally reaches its extreme
lows slightly before a major market bottom. As the market then turns up
from the major bottom, the indicator jumps up rapidly. During this
period, many new stocks are making new highs because it's easy to make a
new high when prices have been depressed for a long time.
As the cycle matures, a divergence often occurs as
fewer and fewer stocks are making new highs (the indicator falls), yet
the market indices continue to reach new highs. This is a classic
bearish divergence that indicates that the current upward trend is weak
and may reverse.
Oscillator
The NH-NL indicator oscillates around zero. If the
indicator is positive, the bulls are in control. If it is negative, the
bears are in control. You can trade the NH-NL indicator by buying and
selling as the indicators passes through zero. This won't always keep
you on the right side of the market, but it is helpful to confirm the
current trend.
Example
The following chart shows the S&P 500 and a 10-day
moving average of the NH-NL indicator.
I used the NH-NL indicator to confirm a traditional
moving average trading system. I drew "buy" arrows when the S&P 500 rose
above its 50-day moving average, but only if the 10-day moving average
of the NH-NL indicator was above zero. I drew "sell" arrows anytime the
S&P 500 fell below its moving average.
By ignoring buy signals unless the 10-day moving
average of the NH-NL indicator was above zero, I reduced the number of
trades by 50% and increased profits by 9%.
Calculation
The New Highs-New Lows is calculated by simply
taking the difference between the number of stocks that made new 52-week
highs and the number of stocks that made new 52-week lows. I usually
plot a 10-day moving average of this value.