The Commodity Channel Index ("CCI") measures the
variation of a security's price from its statistical mean. High values
show that prices are unusually high compared to average prices whereas
low values indicate that prices are unusually low. Contrary to its name,
the CCI can be used effectively on any type of security, not just
commodities.
The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert.
Interpretation
There are two basic methods of interpreting the CCI:
looking for divergences and as an overbought/oversold indicator.
A divergence occurs when the security's prices
are making new highs while the CCI is failing to surpass its previous
highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in
the security's price.
The CCI typically oscillates between 100. To use
the CCI as an overbought/oversold indicator, readings above +100 imply
an overbought condition (and a pending price correction) while
readings below -100 imply an oversold condition (and a pending rally).
Example
The following chart shows the British Pound and its
14-day CCI. A bullish divergence occurred at point "A" (prices were
declining as the CCI was advancing). Prices subsequently rallied. A
bearish divergence occurred at point "B" (prices were advancing while
the CCI was declining). Prices corrected. Note too, that each of these
divergences occurred at extreme levels (i.e., above +100 or below -100)
making them even more significant.
Calculation
A complete explanation of the CCI calculation is
beyond the scope of this book. The following are basic steps involved in
the calculation:
Add each period's high, low, and close and divide
this sum by 3. This is the typical price.
Calculate an n-period simple moving average of
the typical prices computed in Step 1.
For each of the prior n-periods, subtract today's
Step 2 value from Step 1's value n days ago. For example, if you were
calculating a 5-day CCI, you would perform five subtractions using
today's Step 2 value.
Calculate an n-period simple moving average of
the absolute values of each of the results in Step 3.
Multiply the value in Step 4 by 0.015.
Subtract the value from Step 2 from the value in
Step 1.
Divide the value in Step 6 by the value in Step
5.
Further details on the contents and interpretation
of the CCI can be found in an article by Donald Lambert that appeared in
the October 1980 issue of Commodities (now known as Futures) Magazine.