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WINNING OR LOSING THE GAME
 

It's time to discuss your obsession with the financial markets. The truth can hurt, and today will be no exception. Let's start with the hardest truth of all: It's very difficult to make money by swing trading. After all, no one but the mint is printing cash, nor does it grow on trees. The bottom line for anyone wanting to speculate in the markets? Either earn it or lose it.

Swing trading is a tougher way to make money than buy-and-hold investing, at least in the long run. The bear market changed this equation somewhat, but the basic premise is still valid. There's a good chance you'll lose money trading the markets, and have to move on to an easier hobby.

Trading has a mathematical advantage over investing. The time/profit curve says traders can make more money over less time than investors. But the devil is in the details. Traders need to capture volatile price swings that flatten out over the holding period of a buy-and-hold investor. As a result, traders must master the additional skill of time management.

Take this pursuit seriously, and find a strategy that capitalizes on market movement. Keep in mind that your success or failure depends on the path you choose. The most dangerous road chases profits without an understanding of downside risk. The safest course builds skills one step at a time, and acts defensively when things go wrong. Be prepared to deal with the consequences, whatever path you choose. When it comes to swing trading, you have to be very, very good before you let yourself be bad.

Make sure your trading matches your lifestyle. You can lose a lot of money when your reach exceeds your grasp. Don't trade every tick if you can't follow the market in real time. Don't daytrade your investments, or buy and hold your trades. And never use the market as your therapy for personal problems. It makes a terrible cellmate.

Watch the clock and become a market survivor. Develop a sense of how stocks react to different cycles. Learn the unique traits of the market day, week and month. These repetitive tendencies affect how prices move and how traders trade. And they reveal quirks that produce high-probability trades.

Catalog strange market behavior, and apply simple techniques to trade it. Master a few setups, and let these pay your way while you learn the tricks of the trade. Realize that chasing hot stocks is terrible way to make money. Give up the excitement and follow the precision of classic market mechanics. They'll produce consistent profits, with far less stress.

Manage risk before worrying about profits. The most important rule of risk management requires little interpretation: Don't enter a trade without knowing the exit. Understand the risk of your active positions, and get out when the market says you're wrong. Trading small is the best way for new traders to control risk until they learn how to play the game. The markets will be there tomorrow, next week and next year.

Focus on precise entry and exit. Pick your price, and stay out when the market doesn't give it to you. Trade small when buying or selling signals don't line up. Use discretion, execute wisely and remember: Good entries on bad stocks save more money over time than bad entries on good stocks.

The best trades come when the markets send the same message in different ways. A moving average, a news report and a Greenspan comment can all suddenly line up and tell you to buy. But don't chase opinions just to support your personal bias. The markets won't care who's on your buddy list when they're ready to move.

Finally, commit many hours to the market, or trade small. Develop a predatory instinct, avoid greed and view this hobby as a lifelong obsession. Work hard to complete your analysis, and don't cut corners. Develop your own style and don't run with the herd. Be patient, and the doors will eventually open to your trading success.

 
 
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All original materials: © 2005 Brooke Publishers, Inc.
Comments: trader@hardrightedge.com