Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio |
There is a special ratio that can be used to describe the
proportions of everything from nature’s smallest building
blocks, such as atoms, to the most advanced patterns in the
universe, such as unimaginably large celestial bodies. Nature
relies on this innate proportion to maintain balance, but the
financial markets also seem to conform to this "golden ratio."
Here we take a look at some
technical analysis tools that have been developed to take
advantage of it.
The Mathematics
Mathematicians, scientists, and naturalists have known this
ratio for years. It’s derived from something known as the
Fibonacci sequence, named after its Italian founder, Leonardo
Fibonacci (whose birth is assumed to be around 1175 AD and death
around 1250 AD). Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of
the two preceding terms (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.).
But this sequence is not all that important; rather, it is the
quotient of the adjacent terms that possesses an amazing
proportion, roughly 1.618, or its inverse 0.618. This proportion
is known by many names: the golden ratio, the golden mean, PHI,
and the divine proportion, among others. So, why is this number
so important? Well, almost everything has dimensional properties
that adhere to the ratio of 1.618, so it seems to have a
fundamental function for the building blocks of nature.
Prove It!
Don’t believe it? Take honeybees, for example. If you divide the
female bees by the male bees in any given hive, you will get
1.618. Sunflowers, which have opposing spirals of seeds, have a
1.618 ratio between the diameters of each rotation. This same
ratio can be seen in relationships between different components
throughout nature.
Still don’t believe it? Need something that's easily measured?
Try measuring from your shoulder to your fingertips, and then
divide this number by the length from your elbow to your
fingertips. Or try measuring from your head to your feet, and
divide that by the length from your belly button to your feet.
Are the results the same? Somewhere in the area of 1.618? The
golden ratio is seemingly unavoidable.
But that doesn’t mean that it works in finance… does it?
Actually, the markets have the very same mathematical base as
these natural phenomena. Below we will examine some ways in
which this ratio can be applied to finance, and we'll show you
some charts to prove it!
The Fibonacci Studies and Finance
When used in technical analysis, the golden ratio is typically
translated into three percentages: – 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
However, more multiples can be used when needed, such as 23.6%,
161.8%, 423%, and so on. There are four primary methods for
applying the Fibonacci sequence to finance:
retracements, arcs, fans, and time zones.
1. Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of
support or
resistance. They are calculated by first locating the high
and low of the chart. Then five lines are drawn: the first at
100% (the high on the chart), the second at 61.8%, the third at
50%, the fourth at 38.2%, and the last one at 0% (the low on the
chart). After a significant price movement up or down, the new
support and resistance levels are often at or near these lines.
Take a look at the chart below, which illustrates some
retracements:
Image created using MetaTrader
2. Fibonacci Arcs
Finding the high and low of a chart is the first step to
composing Fibonacci arcs. Then, with a compass-like movement,
three curved lines are drawn at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, from the
desired point. These lines anticipate the support and resistance
levels, and areas of
ranging.
Take a look at the chart below, which illustrates how these arcs
do this:
Image created using MetaTrader
3. Fibonacci Fans
Fibonacci fans are composed of diagonal lines. After the high
and low of the chart is located, an invisible vertical line is
drawn though the rightmost point. This invisible line is then
divided into 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, and lines are drawn from the
leftmost point through each of these points. These lines
indicate areas of support and resistance. Take a look at the
chart below:
Image created using MetaTrader
4. Fibonacci Time Zones
Unlike the other Fibonacci methods, time zones are a series of
vertical lines. They are composed by dividing a chart into
segments with vertical lines spaced apart in increments that
conform to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.).
These lines indicate areas in which major price movement can be
expected.
Image created using MetaTrader
Conclusion
These Fibonacci studies are not intended to provide the primary
indications for timing the entry and exit of a stock; however,
they are useful for estimating areas of support and resistance.
Many people use combinations of Fibonacci studies to obtain a
more accurate forecast. For example, a trader may observe the
intersecting points in a combination of the Fibonacci arcs and
resistances. Many more use the Fibonacci studies in conjunction
with other forms of technical analysis. For example, the
Fibonacci studies are often used with
Elliott Waves to predict the extent of the retracements
after different waves. Hopefully you can find your own niche use
for the Fibonacci studies, and add it to your set of investment
tools! |