The Art of Option Selling
Not many commodity trading
advisers actively trade options. And those who do typically use
them only as an occasional leveraged supplement to a broad
directional view.
So it comes as a surprise that
one successful commodity trading adviser, Max Ansbacher of New
York-based Ansbacher Capital Management, makes his living
exclusively by trading options. Moreover, contrary to what most
people consider prudent, he never buys options—he only sells
them. And only one variety at that—options on Standard & Poor's
500 futures.
Now, the kicker that will make
risk managers run screaming for the exits: Ansbacher never
delta-hedges his positions and rarely engages in spreads. He
considers that stuff too complicated and expensive. His
approach, by contrast, is astonishingly simple: he sells an
option—usually a put, but sometimes a call—then places a
stop-loss order above his option entry price. Then, he kicks
back and watches.
Most options aficionados would
consider him unsophisticated and naïve. He has none of the fancy
risk management systems or net synthetic sensitivity reports so
common in options trading operations today. But before you write
him off as a crank, keep in mind that Ansbacher has made a lot
of money as a CTA, and has been doing so for a long time.
The author of one of the first
books on options, The New Options Markets (published in 1975 and
soon to be updated), Ansbacher was a successful Bear Stearns
broker for two decades, using his options approach to trade for
clients as well as his own account. He was so successful he
wanted to shout his record from the rooftops, but being a
broker, New York Stock Exchange rules wouldn't allow it. So in
1995, he set himself up as an independent CTA.
His first two years as a CTA
were successful, bringing in annual returns of 24.85 percent and
19.52 percent respectively. In 1997, he hit a home run,
returning 94.93 percent. The extreme volatility in the summer of
1998 brought him back down to earth—he suffered a 19 percent
drawdown at that time—but he still lived to turn in a 25.68
percent performance on the year. Last year, he racked up another
23.54 percent positive return.
But don't pure short-selling
strategies always end badly, like The Art of Speculation author
Victor Niederhoffer's famous 1997 blowup? Not at all, says
Ansbacher.
"From what I understand of that
situation, the difference between me and Victor Niederhoffer is
pretty simple,” he announces. "In 1997, Niederhoffer had already
lost half of his money betting on the Thai baht. All the clients
that could leave him already had. But Niederhoffer had other
clients under a lock-up agreement where they could only leave
his fund at year-end. He needed to make back a great deal of
money in a short period of time or risk the rest of his clients
fleeing. Selling S&P put options was effectively a double or
nothing way to try to make himself whole by year-end. He knew
exactly what he was doing, and he just kept selling more options
on the way down because he knew the game was effectively over
anyway, unless the market came roaring back.” It did, of course,
but a tad too late for old Vic.
Ansbacher claims that he would
never consider trading in such a fashion. "When I sell an
option, I immediately place a good-til-cancelled stop-loss
order,” he says. " I also use far less margin than most people.
When I get stopped out, that's typically nature's way of telling
me to slow down, retreat for a while. I'll stand aside for a bit
in such instances. Maybe just a few days or a week—but with such
a trading defense system, you avoid having your heart in your
throat in a crash environment. I had a 13 percent drawdown when
Niederhoffer lost 120 percent. It was nothing particularly
unusual on the way to a great year.”
Choppy, volatile markets such as
the ones we've seen this year have also caused Ansbacher some
duress, but since he only trades a maximum of 25 percent of his
available capital at any one time, he has always survived long
enough to prosper when a volatile market finally snaps back to a
normal trading range. Ansbacher explains that he has tended to
have some of his best periods immediately after some of his
worst: "As long as I can avoid too many stop-losses getting
elected back-to-back, expanding premium levels that previously
hurt on a mark-to-market basis finally start to die on the
vine.”
Through the years, Ansbacher's
success has boiled down to a decidedly contrarian philosophy:
"sell options as much as you can.”
"If you really feel compelled to
buy options,” he says, "be realistic about it, and sell out half
of your position if the option price doubles.” Ansbacher claims
that this advice was reinforced while watching his clients at
Bear Stearns engage in a wide variety of options strategies.
"Strangely enough, almost all of the option buyers ended up
losing money,” he says. "Sooner or later they'd guess wrong on a
directional move and their long premiums would evaporate.”
One nice benefit of his
contrarian style: he often gets a large cushion between his
short striking price and the current market when selling
out-of-the-money puts or calls on S&P futures. "Unlike most
traders,” he says, "Within a range, I typically don't care where
the index ends up, but simply how it gets there. If it gets
extremely choppy like this past April, I'll likely elect a few
stops and drop some money. But years like 1997 were just
marvelous. Beside a small hiccup in October of that year, the
steady grind higher in the market was just perfect for my style
of trading.”
But is his secret really this
simple? Not quite. There are four additional rules he follows
closely. First, he never trades individual equity options. He
considers their jump potential too dangerous when compared with
selling options on a broader index.
Second, he always tries to sell
against the consensus. To help do this, he constructed his own
index that measures the degree of richness or cheapness in
out-of-the-money index options. He takes the price of a put
approximately 30 points below the current price of the S&P 100
Index (OEX) and divides it into the price of a call the same
amount above the OEX. The index uses a weighted average of the
first two option maturities to keep a constant average maturity
life. Ansbacher has found that on a few occasions the index has
reached an extreme toward 0.3 (the puts thereby trading at three
times the value of calls a similar distance out of the
money)—typically a bullish signal. Conversely, Ansbacher claims
that an index value toward 1.0 is singularly bearish, with calls
hardly ever reaching a greater premium than similar
out-of-the-money puts. The index gives him a flavor for
sentiment and the relative attractiveness of premium levels all
in one blow.
Ansbacher's third rule: only
trade options in the first two delivery months. "I'm going after
time decay,” he says, "and have no ambition to get involved with
six-month options where you can hardly see this decay at all.
The market could be anywhere in six months.” Much to his
pleasure, short-dated options decay quite quickly. He often
likes to sell options directly in front of economic numbers,
risking being hurt by a large directional move in the S&P in
return for some fast time decay once the numbers become public
information.
The final rule he uses to keep
himself out of trouble is to occasionally double-down on a trade
with a tightened stop. "Suppose I first sold an option at $6,”
he says. "Initially, I might leave a stop at $12. If the option
I sold then declines in value to $3, I might sell another round
of them, but tighten the overall stop on the entire position
down to $6.” Ansbacher thereby ends up risking $3 net for a
potential $9 winner.
If this approach seems somewhat
unsophisticated, perhaps it is. Ansbacher clearly stands at some
risk of a 3-sigma overnight event, since stops on index options
currently do not trade overnight. Some might even argue that he
represents a good example of "survivorship bias”—one person just
lucky enough to be left standing after scores of other
short-sellers have long since blown up.
Nonetheless, he fervently
believes in his approach and continues to bemoan too much
spread-trading or delta-hedging as a dangerous and unattractive
alternative. And who can argue with his success? He's made lots
of money over the last quarter-century and has yet to be caught
egregiously offside. |