quote:Originally posted by tachyonv Intraday Volatility Method (Discretionary). Target $500 profit per trade.
Set up:
-
Find equities having >= $2.00 intraday EMA (exponential moving
average price range) over past 34 trading days; last closing price
between about $30 to $125 per share; beta <= 0.7; average daily
volume > 800,000 shares. Put these into a RadarScreen table with
whatever columns of data you wish.
First scan with TS scanner to find up to about 950 candidates with above parameters excluding the beta.
Then
copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator (loaded
into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols.
A link to this indicator is below.
Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34. Leave the other input settings at their defaults.
Sort (double click)on the APR_Recent Days input column to get in sequence of highest to lowest value.
Select
those symbols having $2.00 or greater recent APR and which are not
rejected due to other reasons (Reject message on left in red).
For each of the viable symbols, look up beta at Yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com and keep the symbols whose betas are about 0.7 or less.
Exceptions
to beta parameter: ETFs and ETNs do not have betas. Use common
logic/sense to select those which do not necessarily follow the markets
closely. Do not use ETFs and ETNs which are in effect market indices.
Among those which work well, as examples, are UCO, FAS, ERX which
obviously do not always closely follow the markets. Those to avoid, as
examples, include BGU, BGZ, DDM, MVV, MZZ, QLD, QID, SDS, SSO, TNA, TWM,
TZA, UWM.
Symbols which pass these filters are viable for this method.
Tradable
Symbols indicator will additoinally reject symbols which have had
volume too low on too many days - in other words, with unreliable
liquidity. Unaware of any other tool that can do this.
- For
each symbol, set up one desktop containing Time and Sales window; 5
minute interval chart; daily interval chart; week interval chart; each
with the default number of bars. Format bars to candlesticks. Add
Keltner Channels All indicator to top pane of each chart. %R to middle
pane. Volume Exponential Average indicator to bottom pane.
- Study, learn intraday cycles using the Excel spreadsheet at the link below.
This spreadsheet is conceptual, no particular day matches it exactly
and some days match it not at all. Be sure to set the spreadsheet's
adjustment for your desired time zone.
Trade:
-
Buy 1,000 shares at a low price between the open and 10:45 AM Central.
Much of the time, the best prices are between 9:15 AM Central and 10:30
AM Central.
- Sell 1,000 shares after price has risen $0.52/share, the two pennies to cover commissions.
-
Price will not necessarily bounce up that much. Exit regardless by
12:35 PM Central. Exception: on a moderate to strong bullish day, use a
tight trailing stop, or visually monitor to exit, let it run to a
larger profit. Do not let the price gain drop below $.52 on such a day. Once profitable do not let price drop into a loss.
-
Does not matter much if markets are up, down or flat, providing entry
is at a sufficiently low price. Providing you stick to symbols whose
beta is <= 0.7. Exception: those exceedingly rare days when the
markets start down at the open and continue down through 12:35 PM
Central. Take the loss at 12:35 PM Central or before.
Advice:
- Emotions: do not get elated or discouraged during the trading day.
- This method works well a high percentage of the time but not 100%.
- Be patient. Be VERY patient when trading this.
-
Often the lowest prices of the morning are between 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM
Central. Study the history of each symbol to see if there is a recent
repeated pattern of such lows. Often the highest price is at 12:35 PM
Central followed by a decline. Sometimes, not infrequently, prices rise
around 1:00 PM Central, a bit more often after 1:30 PM Central.
- Watch %R, Vol indicator, KC for visual clues, which with practice will become obvious and instinctive.
- Do not get greedy.
Often you will leave $ hundreds, and rarely even $ thousands of profit
behind. Train yourself to have no regrets. The objective is to gain up
to $500/trade, slow and steady, day after trading day. Get greedy and
like any method, inevitably there will be a large loss coming with your
name on it, perhaps a long string of losses.
- This is a high
win rate method with relatively low risk. If you are not achieving 80%
to 93% win rate or if you are suffering a large loss once in a while,
then you are probably not trading with sufficient self-discipline,
and/or too impatiently and/or not paying enough attention
to/understanding the indicators. Or gambling greedily by buying more
than 1,000 shares per symbol per trade – which is poor
risk/money/position sizing management.
- Judgment is required for entry and exit, watching the indicators and time. This is not a good candidate for automated trading.
It appears to be simple enough to automate, but trade this manually for
a month or so, and you will see why this is not such a good automation
candidate.
- If something about the day, charts, etc., does not
instinctively seem right, don't trade. It is perfectly fine to sit on
the sidelines for a day, a week, a few weeks. I do it. A better trader,
Larry Williams does it. Jesse Livermore once said that he made more
money sitting in cash sometmes than when he was trading. It is GOOD to
sit on the sidelines sometimes, not bad.
- Trader beware. There
is more to this than what I have described. Easily learned by simply
studying the charts and sufficient practice trading.
- Deviating from the above may result in otherwise easily avoided losses.
Symbol selection is critical and DOES require use of RadarScreen and
the Tradable Symbols indicator. The TS scanner is insufficient. Am
unaware of any scanner on the Internet which can scan as well as
RadarScreen and the Tradable Symbols indicator. Manually look up beta's
on YHOO, does not take very long. TS beta values are on a different
scale than those at YHOO. Including bata in a TS scan will exclude ETFs
and ETNs, an undesirable effect.
- One trade per symbol per day. Do NOT exit then get back in. -
OK to scale up entries, but not to more than 1000 shares per symbol. OK
to scale down exits, although most of the time it is best to get out
fast, especially if it is not at least a modestly strong or better
bullish session. - Once exiting has begun, continue until done. Do NOT add to a position once exiting has begun. -
Do NOT carry overnight and especially do NOT carry over a weekend. This
is an intraday trading method, NOT a swing trading method.
?s from another beginner. In
TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA
(exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"
Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria
Tachyonv
said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols
indicator (loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate
symbols. " There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can
you be more specific?
A link to this indicator is below. "Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34". Where is this?
In
TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA
(exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"
I
did not find that in the TS Scanner either, but I think that filter is
in the Tradable Symbols indicator. Therefore, you can filter on that
when you run Tradable Symbols in RadarScreen. ***************
Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria
I do not know what the "KJD AvgRange" is either. ***************** Tachyonv
said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator
(loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols. "
There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can you be more
specific?
With Tradable Symbols open in RadarScreen, Right Click in the window. Left Click Format 'Tradable Symbols' for All Symbols in the drop down menu Left Click the Inputs Tab Find the APR_Recent Days Name in the list of Inputs Change the Value to 34 *****************
This is from another beginner with RadarScreen and with replying in the forum, so I hope this helped.
quote:Originally posted by richardb In
TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA
(exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"
I
did not find that in the TS Scanner either, but I think that filter is
in the Tradable Symbols indicator. Therefore, you can filter on that
when you run Tradable Symbols in RadarScreen. ***************
Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria
I do not know what the "KJD AvgRange" is either. ***************** Tachyonv
said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator
(loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols. "
There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can you be more
specific?
With Tradable Symbols open in RadarScreen, Right Click in the window. Left Click Format 'Tradable Symbols' for All Symbols in the drop down menu Left Click the Inputs Tab Find the APR_Recent Days Name in the list of Inputs Change the Value to 34 *****************
This is from another beginner with RadarScreen and with replying in the forum, so I hope this helped.
I
am about to show my stupidity re: trading stocks since I only trade
futures now (I did trade stocks for a time back in the 90's). I am
trying to learn something new. I can understand using a stock with a
beta < .7 if the general trend of the market is down and the DOW is
> -50 but I would have thought if the general trend of the market
(DOW/SP500) is up (from the settlement yesterday and general trend for
the last 2-4 days) to use a stock with a beta of > 1.2-1.3???
Could you explain once again your logic to beta selected stocks under all the market conditions?
I
would select stocks that trade > 1.5-2.0 million shares/day, daily
range > 2.00 with prices between $50-150.00 and then select the beta
stocks depending upon whether the market trend is up or down....assuming
to take only long trades.
Have you experimented strategies to short stocks?
How do you use %R....do you only use crossing above the 20% or do you vary that level?
Do you use other beta values for other types of strategies, if so what types...swing, longterm,etc?
Interesting that another future only trader interested in Stocks.
Quark,
to me, the interesting thing is the whole selection of stock
thing.......since we really can't do that with futures per se
nothwithstanding different future markets might have different
volatilities at times hence you coud go to X market.
But the
stocks gives you a factor to N possibilties it would seem that when put
in a switching pool might yield much diversity of risk/reared.
However,
harder to short than futures, harder to get in/out per your post which
might be true, and of course the amount of capital required per N leans
much more to the futures players for leverage, having been a futures
only trader for a very long time.
Tach............and the
real entrigue is that you actually might play with the grandkids while
in a trade ( nothing I do in futures) is real interesting. I mean you
suggeest to just put your order in and wait for a while? If I am not
filled in N bars, price movement (filter for N) or time...I would just
go about nuts........well, actually scratch the trade.
Interesting to me the different perspectives of stocks/futures traders.............
Just
curious Quark, is the filtering process of N stocks for possible play
what has your attention here or you trying to automate this process or
something else?
I
too am interested in the selection of specific stocks vs the type of
strategy (long/short positions vs market trend) I am also interested
how tachyonv uses his oscillator, since I scalp the futures without
using any oscillators, or moving averages. I am also interested how he
handles extreme bars and what he considers a large/significant gap and
how he handles those, as well.
Hook, tachyonv, yitana, split,bwjr and everyone else
Both
pap pap and myself are futures traders hoping to learn something from
you equity traders specifically about stock selection and beta.
We
know that beta is not just volatility but also how the stock correlates
to the indexes....thus my question in the last 2 pages about which
stocks to use this strategy....I re-read tachyonv's original answer
which seemed a little bit cryptic to me, probably because of my
ignorance on the subject....We are just hoping a further discussion will
occur...thanks.
I am also hoping for a discussion of
oscillators (%R)....There are many ways to use an oscillator including
buying when the oscillator crosses above 20 or 30......but also only buy
when it crosses above 50 and even theories, concepts when to buy ONLY
when it crosses above 70-85.....
This might be a nice thread how to use the %R in relationship to tachyonv's system...perhaps not on the other hand
tachyonv please state your perferences about that discussion....I
certainly do not want to side track this thread away from your original
intentions.
I
understand why you only trade this from the long side after studying
this system. Since Nov 11, 2011 there have been about 35 days when the
Dow opened < -50 or was < -50 by 1030 EST/EDT and thus you would
not have traded those days using this strategy.(approx 30% of the time)
quote:Originally posted by tachyonv Too ill, going through painful medical tests, cannot respond for a while. Sorry.
Hi
Vince, I haven't been spending much time on the Forum and just came
across this thread. I didn't realize you have been and are currently
ill. We'll certainly keep you in our thoughts and prayers.
I
also have to say that you have the patience of a saint! While I didn't
make it through all the pages of this thread, I can see that despite
your generous and continuing contribution, you are still having to lead
people by the hand. The most important part of trading is knowing the
extent of our own limitations. That is what will sink us, not the
system we trade. I find it hard to believe any subscriber who doesn't
take the time to read the entire thread and digest your posts (before
asking the very questions you previously answered) is likely to become a
successful trader!
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