Bulkowski’s Symmetrical Triangles

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Symmetrical triangles are a popular chart pattern because they appear often and perform reasonably well in a bull market. This opinion is based not on the performance rank, which is mediocre, but on trading experience. For more information see pages 748 to 764 of the book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition and the following...
Symmetrical triangle chart pattern
Symmetrical triangle chart pattern
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Important Bull Market Results

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 16 out of 23; 15 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 9%; 13%
Average rise/decline: 31%; 17%
Throwback/pullback rate: 37%; 59%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 66%; 48%

Identification Guidelines

Characteristic Discussion
Price trend Can be any direction leading to the chart pattern.
Shape Triangular. Prices move between two converging trendlines.
Trendlines Two trendlines bound prices; the bottom trendline slopes up and the top one slopes down.
Crossing Price must cross the pattern from side to side, filling the triangle with price movement, not white space.
Touches Price must touch each trendline at least twice, forming distinct valleys and peaks.
Volume Trends downward 86% of the time.
Breakout Upward 54% of the time and 75% of the way to the triangle apex (upward breakout) and 73% of the way for downward breakouts.

Trading Tips

Trading Tactic Explanation

Measure rule

Compute the height from the highest peak (point A in The Measure Rule figure to the right) to the lowest valley in the pattern (B) then multiply it by the above “percentage meeting price target.” Add it (upward breakouts) or subtract it (downward breakouts) from the breakout price. The breakout price is the point at which price pierces the trendline. The figure shows an upward breakout with target price C.

Breakout volume

Patterns with heavy breakout volume (above the 30-day average) do better.

Yearly low

Triangles with breakouts within a third of the yearly low : perform best.
Trend start Triangles perform best postbreakout when they appear at the start of trends.
Throwbacks and pullbacks Throwbacks and pullbacks hurt postbreakout performance.
Symmetrical triangle measure rule
The Measure Rule

Example

Symmetrical triangle chart pattern example

The above figure shows an example of a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. The consolidation pattern of the symmetrical triangle forms as volume recedes. Then, price breaks out downward but within a few days, price reverses and shoots out the top of the symmetrical triangle, busting the pattern and leading to a strong move upward.

Copyright © 2005-2007 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. I don’t suffer from insanity. I enjoy every minute of it.