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 Trade & Money Management  > Intraday Volatility Method. Target $500 profit.
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quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/09/2012 09:08:05    
split,bwjr,mud

how are things going?
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/09/2012 13:35:25    
tachyonv

how much emphasis do you place on the %R since that can be "seen" by looking at the candlestick bars and the KC, beside the T & S window.
HFolse
6 Posts
Posted - 04/09/2012 21:30:16    
quote:
Originally posted by tachyonv
Intraday Volatility Method (Discretionary). Target $500 profit per trade.

Set up:

- Find equities having >= $2.00 intraday EMA (exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days; last closing price between about $30 to $125 per share; beta <= 0.7; average daily volume > 800,000 shares. Put these into a RadarScreen table with whatever columns of data you wish.

First scan with TS scanner to find up to about 950 candidates with above parameters excluding the beta.

Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator (loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols.

A link to this indicator is below.

Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34. Leave the other input settings at their defaults.

Sort (double click)on the APR_Recent Days input column to get in sequence of highest to lowest value.

Select those symbols having $2.00 or greater recent APR and which are not rejected due to other reasons (Reject message on left in red).

For each of the viable symbols, look up beta at Yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com and keep the symbols whose betas are about 0.7 or less.

Exceptions to beta parameter: ETFs and ETNs do not have betas. Use common logic/sense to select those which do not necessarily follow the markets closely. Do not use ETFs and ETNs which are in effect market indices. Among those which work well, as examples, are UCO, FAS, ERX which obviously do not always closely follow the markets. Those to avoid, as examples, include BGU, BGZ, DDM, MVV, MZZ, QLD, QID, SDS, SSO, TNA, TWM, TZA, UWM.

Symbols which pass these filters are viable for this method.

Tradable Symbols indicator will additoinally reject symbols which have had volume too low on too many days - in other words, with unreliable liquidity. Unaware of any other tool that can do this.

- For each symbol, set up one desktop containing Time and Sales window; 5 minute interval chart; daily interval chart; week interval chart; each with the default number of bars. Format bars to candlesticks. Add Keltner Channels All indicator to top pane of each chart. %R to middle pane. Volume Exponential Average indicator to bottom pane.

- Study, learn intraday cycles using the Excel spreadsheet at the link below. This spreadsheet is conceptual, no particular day matches it exactly and some days match it not at all. Be sure to set the spreadsheet's adjustment for your desired time zone.

Trade:

- Buy 1,000 shares at a low price between the open and 10:45 AM Central. Much of the time, the best prices are between 9:15 AM Central and 10:30 AM Central.

- Sell 1,000 shares after price has risen $0.52/share, the two pennies to cover commissions.

- Price will not necessarily bounce up that much. Exit regardless by 12:35 PM Central. Exception: on a moderate to strong bullish day, use a tight trailing stop, or visually monitor to exit, let it run to a larger profit. Do not let the price gain drop below $.52 on such a day. Once profitable do not let price drop into a loss.

- Does not matter much if markets are up, down or flat, providing entry is at a sufficiently low price. Providing you stick to symbols whose beta is <= 0.7. Exception: those exceedingly rare days when the markets start down at the open and continue down through 12:35 PM Central. Take the loss at 12:35 PM Central or before.

Advice:

- Emotions: do not get elated or discouraged during the trading day.

- This method works well a high percentage of the time but not 100%.

- Be patient. Be VERY patient when trading this.

- Often the lowest prices of the morning are between 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM Central. Study the history of each symbol to see if there is a recent repeated pattern of such lows. Often the highest price is at 12:35 PM Central followed by a decline. Sometimes, not infrequently, prices rise around 1:00 PM Central, a bit more often after 1:30 PM Central.

- Watch %R, Vol indicator, KC for visual clues, which with practice will become obvious and instinctive.

- Do not get greedy. Often you will leave $ hundreds, and rarely even $ thousands of profit behind. Train yourself to have no regrets. The objective is to gain up to $500/trade, slow and steady, day after trading day. Get greedy and like any method, inevitably there will be a large loss coming with your name on it, perhaps a long string of losses.

- This is a high win rate method with relatively low risk. If you are not achieving 80% to 93% win rate or if you are suffering a large loss once in a while, then you are probably not trading with sufficient self-discipline, and/or too impatiently and/or not paying enough attention to/understanding the indicators. Or gambling greedily by buying more than 1,000 shares per symbol per trade – which is poor risk/money/position sizing management.

- Judgment is required for entry and exit, watching the indicators and time. This is not a good candidate for automated trading. It appears to be simple enough to automate, but trade this manually for a month or so, and you will see why this is not such a good automation candidate.

- If something about the day, charts, etc., does not instinctively seem right, don't trade. It is perfectly fine to sit on the sidelines for a day, a week, a few weeks. I do it. A better trader, Larry Williams does it. Jesse Livermore once said that he made more money sitting in cash sometmes than when he was trading. It is GOOD to sit on the sidelines sometimes, not bad.

- Trader beware. There is more to this than what I have described. Easily learned by simply studying the charts and sufficient practice trading.

- Deviating from the above may result in otherwise easily avoided losses. Symbol selection is critical and DOES require use of RadarScreen and the Tradable Symbols indicator. The TS scanner is insufficient. Am unaware of any scanner on the Internet which can scan as well as RadarScreen and the Tradable Symbols indicator. Manually look up beta's on YHOO, does not take very long. TS beta values are on a different scale than those at YHOO. Including bata in a TS scan will exclude ETFs and ETNs, an undesirable effect.

Links:

https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=36865

https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=36820

https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/topic.aspx?topic_id=18787

https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=36561

Addendum trade rules:

- One trade per symbol per day. Do NOT exit then get back in.
- OK to scale up entries, but not to more than 1000 shares per symbol. OK to scale down exits, although most of the time it is best to get out fast, especially if it is not at least a modestly strong or better bullish session.
- Once exiting has begun, continue until done. Do NOT add to a position once exiting has begun.
- Do NOT carry overnight and especially do NOT carry over a weekend. This is an intraday trading method, NOT a swing trading method.
HFolse
6 Posts
Posted - 04/09/2012 21:38:33    
?s from another beginner.
In TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA (exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"

Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria

Tachyonv said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator (loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols. " There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can you be more specific?

A link to this indicator is below. "Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34". Where is this?
richardb
2 Posts
Posted - 04/09/2012 22:57:58    
In TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA (exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"

I did not find that in the TS Scanner either, but I think that filter is in the Tradable Symbols indicator. Therefore, you can filter on that when you run Tradable Symbols in RadarScreen.
***************

Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria

I do not know what the "KJD AvgRange" is either.
*****************
Tachyonv said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator (loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols. " There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can you be more specific?

It is the fourth link in your quote above:
https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=36561
***********************
A link to this indicator is below. "Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34". Where is this?

With Tradable Symbols open in RadarScreen, Right Click in the window.
Left Click Format 'Tradable Symbols' for All Symbols in the drop down menu
Left Click the Inputs Tab
Find the APR_Recent Days Name in the list of Inputs
Change the Value to 34
*****************

This is from another beginner with RadarScreen and with replying in the forum, so I hope this helped.

Richardb

And I see that I am pretty slow.
theHook
3721 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 00:00:11    
quote:
Originally posted by richardb
In TS scanner I don't find a criteria for ">= $2.00 intraday EMA (exponential moving average price range) over past 34 trading days"

I did not find that in the TS Scanner either, but I think that filter is in the Tradable Symbols indicator. Therefore, you can filter on that when you run Tradable Symbols in RadarScreen.
***************

Also Setting up the TS scan I don't find the "KJD AvgRange" in the Scan Criteria

I do not know what the "KJD AvgRange" is either.
*****************
Tachyonv said" Then copy and paste those symbols into Tradable Symbols indicator (loaded into RadarScreen) to further filter those candidate symbols. " There are 4 links and I don't find this in any of them. Can you be more specific?

It is the fourth link in your quote above:
https://community.tradestation.com/discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=36561
***********************
A link to this indicator is below. "Set Tradable Symbols indicator's APR_Recent Days input parameter to 34". Where is this?

With Tradable Symbols open in RadarScreen, Right Click in the window.
Left Click Format 'Tradable Symbols' for All Symbols in the drop down menu
Left Click the Inputs Tab
Find the APR_Recent Days Name in the list of Inputs
Change the Value to 34
*****************

This is from another beginner with RadarScreen and with replying in the forum, so I hope this helped.

Richardb

And I see that I am pretty slow.




AvgRange:


quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 10:40:00    
split, Hook

did you just get into NFLX...somewhere around 105.72?
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 10:52:34    
tachyonv

do you any fundamental stock specific data to determine if to trade a specific stock....earnings data, etc. earnings report day?
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 11:00:26    
high 106.33 max.risk .03
theHook
3721 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 11:26:36    
quote:
Originally posted by quark
split, Hook

did you just get into NFLX...somewhere around 105.72?




Been too busy -- no trades today.
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 11:41:29    
tachyonv

I am about to show my stupidity re: trading stocks since I only trade futures now (I did trade stocks for a time back in the 90's). I am trying to learn something new. I can understand using a stock with a beta < .7 if the general trend of the market is down and the DOW is > -50 but I would have thought if the general trend of the market (DOW/SP500) is up (from the settlement yesterday and general trend for the last 2-4 days) to use a stock with a beta of > 1.2-1.3???

Could you explain once again your logic to beta selected stocks under all the market conditions?

I would select stocks that trade > 1.5-2.0 million shares/day, daily range > 2.00 with prices between $50-150.00 and then select the beta stocks depending upon whether the market trend is up or down....assuming to take only long trades.

Have you experimented strategies to short stocks?

How do you use %R....do you only use crossing above the 20% or do you vary that level?

Do you use other beta values for other types of strategies, if so what types...swing, longterm,etc?

thanks again for everything
pap pap
957 Posts
Posted - 04/10/2012 20:55:21    
Interesting that another future only trader interested in Stocks.

Quark, to me, the interesting thing is the whole selection of stock thing.......since we really can't do that with futures per se nothwithstanding different future markets might have different volatilities at times hence you coud go to X market.

But the stocks gives you a factor to N possibilties it would seem that when put in a switching pool might yield much diversity of risk/reared.

However, harder to short than futures, harder to get in/out per your post which might be true, and of course the amount of capital required per N leans much more to the futures players for leverage, having been a futures only trader for a very long time.

Tach............and the real entrigue is that you actually might play with the grandkids while in a trade ( nothing I do in futures) is real interesting. I mean you suggeest to just put your order in and wait for a while? If I am not filled in N bars, price movement (filter for N) or time...I would just go about nuts........well, actually scratch the trade.

Interesting to me the different perspectives of stocks/futures traders.............

Just curious Quark, is the filtering process of N stocks for possible play what has your attention here or you trying to automate this process or something else?

Pap
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/11/2012 10:06:38    
pap pap

I too am interested in the selection of specific stocks vs the type of strategy (long/short positions vs market trend) I am also interested how tachyonv uses his oscillator, since I scalp the futures without using any oscillators, or moving averages. I am also interested how he handles extreme bars and what he considers a large/significant gap and how he handles those, as well.

quark
mtom
1639 Posts
Posted - 04/13/2012 13:05:02    
I noticed that on a lot of stocks that would have been a good day for tach's system even
though the Dow was below his mimimums.


theHook
3721 Posts
Posted - 04/16/2012 16:24:40    
I got around to trading the Tach Method today:

PRGO 10:47 103.78 +.52 ~2:15
PANL 10:47 35.27 +.52 ~ 1:45
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/17/2012 17:08:30    
Hook, tachyonv, yitana, split,bwjr and everyone else

Both pap pap and myself are futures traders hoping to learn something from you equity traders specifically about stock selection and beta.

We know that beta is not just volatility but also how the stock correlates to the indexes....thus my question in the last 2 pages about which stocks to use this strategy....I re-read tachyonv's original answer which seemed a little bit cryptic to me, probably because of my ignorance on the subject....We are just hoping a further discussion will occur...thanks.

I am also hoping for a discussion of oscillators (%R)....There are many ways to use an oscillator including buying when the oscillator crosses above 20 or 30......but also only buy when it crosses above 50 and even theories, concepts when to buy ONLY when it crosses above 70-85.....

This might be a nice thread how to use the %R in relationship to tachyonv's system...perhaps not on the other hand tachyonv please state your perferences about that discussion....I certainly do not want to side track this thread away from your original intentions.

quark

theHook
3721 Posts
Posted - 04/18/2012 11:03:15    
quark, I scalp eminis for a living -- so I'm not much help.
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/23/2012 09:25:10    
tachyonv

how often will you take a trade in "pre-market" hours? I know you wouldn't take any trades today since the DOW is -133 at this time.
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 04/23/2012 11:22:09    
tachyonv

I understand why you only trade this from the long side after studying this system. Since Nov 11, 2011 there have been about 35 days when the Dow opened < -50 or was < -50 by 1030 EST/EDT and thus you would not have traded those days using this strategy.(approx 30% of the time)
quark
5853 Posts
Posted - 05/02/2012 16:27:01    
split y yitana

are you still trading....how are you doing??? How are other people doing with tachyonv's concept???
JavLn
13744 Posts
Posted - 05/02/2012 23:26:11    
quote:
Originally posted by tachyonv
Too ill, going through painful medical tests, cannot respond for a while. Sorry.
tach, I'm really sorry to hear you are feeling ill. I wish you all the best and a fast recovery!
shemp_4
303 Posts
Posted - 05/03/2012 07:19:39    
Prayers for healing for you, tach.

steve
coned202
8 Posts
Posted - 05/05/2012 17:09:14    
First time here and want to wish you all the best Tach. My prayers are with you.
msb
1985 Posts
Posted - 05/07/2012 14:46:31    
quote:
Originally posted by tachyonv
Too ill, going through painful medical tests, cannot respond for a while. Sorry.
Hi Vince, I haven't been spending much time on the Forum and just came across this thread. I didn't realize you have been and are currently ill. We'll certainly keep you in our thoughts and prayers.

I also have to say that you have the patience of a saint! While I didn't make it through all the pages of this thread, I can see that despite your generous and continuing contribution, you are still having to lead people by the hand. The most important part of trading is knowing the extent of our own limitations. That is what will sink us, not the system we trade. I find it hard to believe any subscriber who doesn't take the time to read the entire thread and digest your posts (before asking the very questions you previously answered) is likely to become a successful trader!

My best,
Mark
skputts
97 Posts
Posted - 05/10/2012 12:50:13    
Tach,
Very generous of you. Hope you get well soon.
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